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Turnout | 53.6% 9.0 pp | |||||||||||||||||||
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DeSantis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Crist: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Florida |
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Government |
The 2022 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Ron DeSantis won re-election in a landslide [1] [2] and defeated the Democratic Party nominee, Charlie Crist, who served as governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican and later as an independent. No Democrat has been elected governor of Florida since 1994. [3] [4] [5]
According to exit polls, DeSantis won 65% of White voters, 13% of Black voters, and 58% of Latinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% of Cubans and 56% of Puerto Ricans. [6] DeSantis's large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic stronghold Miami-Dade County for the first time since 2002, and Palm Beach County for the first time since 1986, as well as winning Hillsborough, Osceola, Pinellas, and St. Lucie counties for the first time since 2006. This was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His 19.4% margin of victory was the largest since 1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history, compared to 0.4% four years earlier. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over a million votes. [7] [8]
Significantly, Crist's 39.9% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since 1916. Republicans won all other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end of Reconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters. [6] [9] He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate. [10]
The election was described as marking the transition from Florida being a swing state into a solid red state. [11] [12]
To qualify for the ballot in Florida, partisan candidates must first file with the Division of Elections of the Florida Department of State. After filing, a candidate must then qualify for the ballot by a deadline by either paying qualifying fees totaling 6% of the salary of the position sought, or obtaining sufficiently many signatures. Not all candidates who filed to run for governor subsequently qualified to appear on the ballot. [13]
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Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Charlie Crist | Nikki Fried | Other [a] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics [122] | February 7 – June 17, 2022 | June 20, 2022 | 40.0% | 23.3% | 36.7% | Crist +16.7 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Charlie Crist | Nikki Fried | Annette Taddeo | Other | Undecided | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Pete Polls [123] | August 20–21, 2022 | 1,617 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 59% | 30% | – | – | 11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change Research (D) [124] [A] | August 12–14, 2022 | 702 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 37% | – | – | 16% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
University of North Florida [125] | August 8–12, 2022 | 529 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 43% | 47% | – | 5% [c] | 6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [126] [B] | August 8–9, 2022 | 664 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | – | – | 23% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
St. Pete Polls [127] | August 2–3, 2022 | 1,361 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 56% | 24% | – | – | 20% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GBAO (D) [128] [A] | July 27–31, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 36% | – | – | 12% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kaplan Strategies [129] | July 6, 2022 | 671 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 39% | 39% | – | – | 22% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GBAO (D) [130] [A] | June 23–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 34% | – | – | 11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
St. Pete Polls [131] | June 16–17, 2022 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 24% | – | – | 27% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Global Strategy Group (D) [132] [B] | June 8–13, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 34% | – | – | 29% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Taddeo withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
St. Pete Polls [133] | May 2–3, 2022 | 1,859 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 52% | 19% | 5% | – | 24% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sachs Media Group [134] | April 8–10, 2022 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 20% | 4% | – | 41% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
University of North Florida [135] | February 7–20, 2022 | 271 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 27% | 19% | 4% | 8% [d] | 44% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mason-Dixon [136] | February 7–10, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 27% | 3% | – | 26% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Alvarado Strategies (R) [137] [C] | February 2022 | 1,007 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 25% | 6% | 10% | 23% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GBAO (D) [138] [A] | January 26–31, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 28% | 7% | – | 11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
56% | 33% | – | – | 11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [139] [B] | January 26–27, 2022 | 582 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 36% | 34% | – | – | 29% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [140] [B] | August 10–11, 2021 | 274 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 33% | 36% | – | – | 31% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [141] | August 4–10, 2021 | 245 (RV) | ± 6.3% | 38% | 27% | – | 5% | 30% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Political Matrix (R) [142] | June 9–11, 2021 | 660 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 31% | – | – | 29% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
St. Pete Polls [143] | May 24–26, 2021 | 2,752 (RV) | ± 1.9% | 55% | 22% | – | 11% | 12% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Victory Insights (R) [144] | May 4, 2021 | 232 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 53% | 30% | – | 17% [e] | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SEA Polling (D) [145] [D] | April 15–20, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 28% | 26% | 13% | – | 34% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Charlie Crist | 904,524 | 59.71% | |
Democratic | Nicole "Nikki" Fried | 535,480 | 35.35% | |
Democratic | Cadance Daniel | 38,198 | 2.52% | |
Democratic | Robert L. Willis | 36,786 | 2.43% | |
Total votes | 1,513,180 | 100.0% |
In June 2022, Politico released a shortlist of 18 people who Crist was considering as his running mate. [147] On August 26, four days after Crist won the gubernatorial primary, CBS News reported that he had selected Karla Hernández-Mats, one of the people on the Politico shortlist. [148]
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Ron DeSantis | Charlie Crist | |||||
1 | October 24, 2022 | WPEC-TV | Liz Quirantes | YouTube [164] | P | P |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [165] | Likely R | July 22, 2022 |
Inside Elections [166] | Likely R | July 22, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [167] | Safe R | October 31, 2022 |
Politico [168] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [169] | Lean R | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News [170] | Likely R | May 12, 2022 |
538 [171] | Solid R | October 18, 2022 |
Elections Daily [172] | Safe R | November 7, 2022 |
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Ron DeSantis (R) | Charlie Crist (D) | Other [f] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics [193] | October 17 – November 6, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 54.4% | 42.2% | 3.4% | DeSantis +12.2 |
FiveThirtyEight [194] | October 30, 2022 – November 7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 54.5% | 42.4% | 3.0% | DeSantis +12.1 |
270 to win [195] | November 4–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 54.0% | 41.8% | 4.2% | DeSantis +12.2 |
Average | 54.3% | 42.1% | 3.6% | DeSantis +12.2 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis (R) | Charlie Crist (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [196] | November 6–7, 2022 | 722 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Research Co. [197] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 54% | 41% | 2% [g] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) [198] | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,436 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 42% | 2% [h] | – |
Amber Integrated (R) [199] | November 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 40% | 4% [i] | 4% |
Civiqs [200] | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 772 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 45% | 1% [j] | 1% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [201] [E] | November 1, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 53% | 43% | 1% [k] | 3% |
Siena College [202] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 42% | – | 3% |
Victory Insights [203] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 54% | 41% | – | 5% |
Florida State University/YouGov [204] | October 20–31, 2022 | 1,117 (RV) | – | 53% | 43% | – | – |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [205] | October 27–28, 2022 | 633 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
University of North Florida [206] | October 17–24, 2022 | 622 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 55% | 41% | 2% [l] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) [207] | October 19–23, 2022 | 1,251 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 42% | 1% [m] | 2% |
Cherry Communications (R) [208] [F] | October 13–23, 2022 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | – | 5% |
Stetson University [209] | October 16–20, 2022 | 644 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 45% | – | 2% |
Florida Atlantic University [210] | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 40% | 4% [n] | 5% |
YouGov [211] [G] | October 11–16, 2022 | 832 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 43% | 4% | – |
Sachs Media [212] | October 15, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
RMG Research (R) [213] [H] | October 10–13, 2022 | 685 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
African American Research Collaborative (D) [214] [I] | October 4–11, 2022 | 1,250 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [215] | September 26–28, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 41% | 1% | 6% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [216] [J] | September 22–27, 2022 | 2,860 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [217] | September 21, 2022 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
Siena College [218] | September 18–25, 2022 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 41% | 2% [o] | 7% |
Civiqs [219] | September 17–20, 2022 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 45% | 1% [p] | 2% |
Suffolk University [220] | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | 5% [q] | 7% |
Sachs Media [221] | September 10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
Survey Monkey (D) [222] [K] | September 9–10, 2022 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
563 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% | ||
Echelon Insights [223] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 42% | – | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [224] [E] | September 5–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) [225] | August 29 – September 4, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
Neighborhood Research and Media [226] | August 29 – September 2, 2022 | 362 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [227] | August 24–31, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [228] [J] | August 25–30, 2022 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
Impact Research (D) [229] [L] | August 12–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 46% | – | 3% |
Cherry Communications (R) [230] [F] | August 4–15, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
University of North Florida [231] | August 8–12, 2022 | 1,624 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 42% | 6% | 2% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [232] [J] | July 26–31, 2022 | 2,244 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [233] | May 27 – June 4, 2022 | 714 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 51% | – | – |
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R) [234] [M] | Mid-May 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
Phillips Academy [235] | May 7–9, 2022 | 543 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 36% | 35% | – | 30% |
Saint Leo University [236] | February 28 – March 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 33% | – | 18% |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [237] | February 23, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 56% | – | – |
University of North Florida [238] | February 7–20, 2022 | 685 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 34% | – | 11% |
Mason-Dixon [136] | February 7–10, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
Suffolk University [239] | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | 0% | 8% |
St. Pete Polls [240] | November 18–19, 2021 | 2,896 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 51% | 45% | – | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [241] | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 5% | 9% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 40% | 4% | 7% | ||
Saint Leo University [242] | October 17–23, 2021 | 500 (A) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 35% | – | 18% |
VCreek/AMG (R) [243] [N] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 39% | 2% | 12% |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [244] | September 11–12, 2021 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 55% | – | – |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [245] | September 3–5, 2021 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 55% | – | – |
RMG Research [246] | August 21–28, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | – | 17% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [247] | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 36% | 5% | 9% |
977 (LV) | 48% | 38% | 5% | 8% | |||
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [248] | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 57% | – | – |
Change Research (D) [249] [O] | August 14–17, 2021 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [141] | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 43% | 3% | 7% |
Cherry Communications (R) [250] [F] | July 26 – August 4, 2021 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
St. Pete Polls [251] | August 2–3, 2021 | 3,952 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [252] | June 21, 2021 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
Cherry Communications (R) [253] [F] | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | – | 8% |
Victory Insights (R) [144] | May 4, 2021 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
Mason-Dixon [254] | February 24–28, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | – | 7% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Nikki Fried
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis (R) | Nikki Fried (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R) [230] [F] | August 4–15, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
University of North Florida [255] | August 8–12, 2022 | 1,624 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 43% | 5% | 2% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [232] [J] | July 26–31, 2022 | 2,244 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
Saint Leo University [256] | February 28 – March 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 27% | – | 22% |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [237] | February 23, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
University of North Florida [257] | February 7–20, 2022 | 685 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 32% | – | 12% |
Mason-Dixon [136] | February 7–10, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 42% | – | 5% |
Suffolk University [239] | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 40% | 0% | 9% |
St. Pete Polls [240] | November 18–19, 2021 | 2,896 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 51% | 42% | – | 6% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [241] | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 35% | 4% | 8% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 37% | 4% | 7% | ||
Saint Leo University [242] | October 17–23, 2021 | 500 (A) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 33% | – | 21% |
VCreek/AMG (R) [243] [N] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 36% | 5% | 11% |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [245] | September 3–5, 2021 | 1,144 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
RMG Research [246] | August 21–28, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [247] | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 36% | 4% | 11% |
977 (LV) | 48% | 38% | 3% | 10% | |||
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [248] | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
Change Research (D) [249] [O] | August 14–17, 2021 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [141] | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 40% | 2% | 7% |
Cherry Communications (R) [250] [F] | July 26 – August 4, 2021 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
St. Pete Polls [251] | August 2–3, 2021 | 3,952 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 45% | 42% | – | 13% |
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R) [252] | June 21, 2021 | 716 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 61% | 39% | – | – |
Cherry Communications (R) [253] [F] | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
Victory Insights (R) [144] | May 4, 2021 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
St. Pete Polls [258] | March 22–24, 2021 | 1,923 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
Mason-Dixon [254] | February 24–28, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Annette Taddeo
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis (R) | Annette Taddeo (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Leo University [259] | February 28 – March 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 30% | 22% |
Mason-Dixon [136] | February 7–10, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
Saint Leo University [242] | October 17–23, 2021 | 500 (A) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Ron DeSantis vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [260] [J] | July 26–31, 2022 | 2,244 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Data for Progress (D) [261] [P] | September 15–22, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Val Demings
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis (R) | Val Demings (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R) [253] [F] | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 38% | – |
Victory Insights (R) [144] | May 4, 2021 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 46% | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ron DeSantis (incumbent) Jeanette Nuñez (incumbent) | 4,614,210 | 59.37% | +9.78% | |
Democratic | Charlie Crist Karla Hernandez | 3,106,313 | 39.97% | −9.22% | |
Independent | Carmen Jackie Gimenez Kyle "KC" Gibson | 31,577 | 0.41% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Hector Roos Jerry "Tub" Rorabaugh | 19,299 | 0.25% | N/A | |
Total votes | 7,771,399 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Turnout | 7,796,916 | 53.76% | |||
Registered electors | 14,503,978 | ||||
Republican hold |
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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DeSantis won 22 of 28 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats. [264]
District | DeSantis | Crist | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 73% | 26% | Matt Gaetz |
2nd | 61% | 38% | Neal Dunn |
3rd | 64% | 35% | Kat Cammack |
4th | 60% | 39% | Aaron Bean |
5th | 65% | 34% | John Rutherford |
6th | 68% | 31% | Michael Waltz |
7th | 60% | 39% | Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress) |
Cory Mills (118th Congress) | |||
8th | 65% | 35% | Bill Posey |
9th | 50% | 49% | Darren Soto |
10th | 41% | 58% | Val Demings (117th Congress) |
Maxwell Frost (118th Congress) | |||
11th | 63% | 37% | Daniel Webster |
12th | 69% | 30% | Gus Bilirakis |
13th | 58% | 41% | Anna Paulina Luna |
14th | 47% | 52% | Kathy Castor |
15th | 59% | 40% | Laurel Lee |
16th | 61% | 38% | Vern Buchanan |
17th | 64% | 35% | Greg Steube |
18th | 69% | 30% | Scott Franklin |
19th | 69% | 30% | Byron Donalds |
20th | 30% | 69% | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick |
21st | 62% | 37% | Brian Mast |
22nd | 48% | 51% | Lois Frankel |
23rd | 50% | 49% | Jared Moskowitz |
24th | 31% | 68% | Frederica Wilson |
25th | 47% | 52% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
26th | 70% | 29% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
27th | 58% | 41% | María Elvira Salazar |
28th | 64% | 36% | Carlos A. Giménez |
Demographic subgroup | Crist | DeSantis | % of voters | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 35 | 64 | 49 | |
Women | 46 | 53 | 51 | |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 54 | 44 | 7 | |
25–29 years old | 56 | 41 | 4 | |
30–39 years old | 52 | 47 | 13 | |
40–49 years old | 38 | 60 | 12 | |
50–64 years old | 36 | 63 | 32 | |
65 and older | 36 | 64 | 32 | |
Race | ||||
White | 34 | 65 | 64 | |
Black | 86 | 13 | 11 | |
Latino | 40 | 58 | 21 | |
Race by gender | ||||
White men | 27 | 72 | 32 | |
White women | 40 | 58 | 32 | |
Black men | 81 | 19 | 5 | |
Black women | 91 | 9 | 6 | |
Latino men | 41 | 57 | 10 | |
Latina women | 39 | 60 | 11 | |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 33 | 67 | 15 | |
Some college education | 41 | 58 | 25 | |
Associate degree | 40 | 59 | 19 | |
Bachelor's degree | 43 | 56 | 24 | |
Advanced degree | 44 | 55 | 17 | |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 95 | 5 | 28 | |
Republicans | 2 | 97 | 42 | |
Independents | 45 | 53 | 30 | |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 90 | 10 | 20 | |
Moderates | 53 | 45 | 39 | |
Conservatives | 6 | 94 | 42 | |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 38 | 62 | 59 | |
Unmarried | 50 | 50 | 41 | |
Gender by marital status | ||||
Married men | 32 | 68 | 30 | |
Married women | 44 | 55 | 29 | |
Unmarried men | 49 | 51 | 18 | |
Unmarried women | 50 | 49 | 23 | |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 41 | 59 | 11 | |
No | 43 | 57 | 89 | |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Crime | 35 | 63 | 10 | |
Inflation | 26 | 74 | 39 | |
Gun policy | 62 | 36 | 10 | |
Immigration | 12 | 88 | 10 | |
Abortion | 80 | 19 | 24 | |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 43 | 56 | 46 | |
Suburban | 40 | 58 | 44 | |
Rural | 30 | 70 | 10 | |
Source: CNN [265] |
According to exit polls, DeSantis won 65% of White voters, 13% of Black voters, and 58% of Latinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% of Cubans and 56% of Puerto Ricans. [266] DeSantis' large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic stronghold Miami-Dade County for the first time since 2002, and Palm Beach County for the first time since 1986, as well as winning Hillsborough, Osceola, Pinellas, and St. Lucie counties for the first time since 2006; this was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His near 20% margin of victory was the largest since 1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over one million votes.
Significantly, Crist's 40% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since 1916. Republicans won the other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end of Reconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters. [266] [267] He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate. [268]
Partisan clients
Charles Joseph Crist Jr. is an American attorney and politician who served as the 44th governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 and as the U.S. representative for Florida's 13th congressional district from 2017 to 2022. Crist has been a member of the Democratic Party since 2012; he was previously a Republican before becoming an independent in 2010.
The 2006 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican Governor Jeb Bush was term-limited, and could not run for reelection to a third consecutive term. The election was won by then-Republican Charlie Crist, the state's Attorney General. The election was notable in that for the first time, the state elected a Republican governor in three consecutive elections.
Annette Joanne Taddeo-Goldstein is a Colombian-American politician and businesswoman who served as a member of the Florida Senate from the 40th district from 2017 to 2022. She was an unsuccessful candidate for several elections starting in 2008 and was Charlie Crist's running mate in the 2014 Florida gubernatorial election. She was formerly a Democratic candidate in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, but withdrew to run for Congress in Florida's 27th congressional district to unsuccessfully challenge incumbent María Elvira Salazar. She is currently running for Miami-Dade County Clerk and Comptroller.
The 2010 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2010, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2014 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Florida.
Ronald Dion DeSantis is an American politician serving since 2019 as the 46th governor of Florida. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district from 2013 to 2018. DeSantis was a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, withdrawing his candidacy in January 2024.
Dane Eagle is an American politician from Florida. A Republican, Eagle was appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis as Secretary of the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity in September 2020. Eagle was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2012 to 2020, where he represented Cape Coral in Lee County and served as Majority Leader and Majority Whip. Eagle resigned from the House to accept his appointment as head of DEO. Eagle unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for Congress in Florida's 19th congressional district in the 2020 election.
The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014, to elect the 27 U.S. representatives from the state of Florida, one from each of the state's 27 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including Governor of Florida. There was no net party change, as Democrat Gwen Graham defeated Republican incumbent Steve Southerland in the 2nd district, while Republican Carlos Curbelo defeated Democratic incumbent Joe Garcia in the 26th district.
The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016.
The 2018 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Florida, alongside an election to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent two-term Republican Governor Rick Scott was term-limited and could not run for a third term, and he successfully ran for Florida's Class I Senate seat.
The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida were held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, to elect the 27 U.S. representatives from the state of Florida, one from each of the state's 27 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including President of the United States.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Val Demings in a landslide victory. Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux. Rubio won re-election to a third term, becoming the first Republican to do so in Florida history.
The 2020 Miami-Dade County mayoral election was held on November 3, 2020, to determine the mayor of Miami-Dade County, Florida. County Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava defeated fellow commissioner Esteban Bovo. Incumbent Mayor Carlos A. Giménez, first elected in 2011, was term-limited; instead running for the U.S. House of Representatives to represent Florida's 26th congressional district.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Florida were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the 28 U.S. representatives from Florida, one from each of the state's 28 congressional districts. The primary was held on August 23, 2022. The elections coincided with the 2022 United States Senate election in Florida, other elections to the House of Representatives, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
The 2022 Florida Commissioner of Agriculture election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the Florida Commissioner of Agriculture. Incumbent Democratic Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried was eligible to run for a second term, but she instead ran for governor of Florida in 2022. Republican Wilton Simpson won the election with over 59% of the vote. Simpson's victory gave Republicans complete control of state government for the first time since Reconstruction.
The 2022 Florida Attorney General election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Florida Attorney General. Incumbent Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody was reelected for a second term, defeating Democratic challenger Aramis Ayala by a 21-point margin in a landslide victory. Moody received the most raw votes and the highest percentage of the vote of any state-wide candidate in the 2022 Florida elections.
The 2021 St. Petersburg, Florida, mayoral election was held on August 24, 2021, with a runoff on November 2 because no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the first round. It elected the mayor of St. Petersburg, Florida. Incumbent Democratic mayor Rick Kriseman was term-limited and could not seek a third term in office. Municipal elections in St. Petersburg are officially nonpartisan. Former Pinellas County commissioner Ken Welch easily defeated city councilor Robert Blackmon in the runoff. Candidates eliminated in the first round included city councilor Darden Rice, former state representative Wengay Newton, and restaurateur Pete Boland. Welch took office in January 2022, becoming the first black mayor of St. Petersburg.
The 2022 Florida Chief Financial Officer election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the Chief Financial Officer of Florida. Incumbent Republican CFO Jimmy Patronis won re-election to a second term with over 59% of the vote and a margin of victory of 19 percentage points.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.
The 2022 elections for the Florida State Senate took place on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, to elect state senators from all 40 districts. Although on ordinary years, 20 senators are elected at a time on a staggered basis, races following redistricting elect all 40 members to ensure that each member represents an equal number of constituents. The Republican Party expanded their Senate majority from 24 to 28, gaining a supermajority in the Senate. The concurrently held House elections also resulted in a supermajority, giving Republicans supermajority control of the legislature.
[DeSantis] flipped Miami-Dade County, Florida's political crown jewel, which completed a stunning reversal in just six years, after backing Hillary Clinton by 30 points in 2016, Joe Biden by 7 in 2020, and now DeSantis by 11 points. In running up the score, DeSantis also secured another major win, becoming the first Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the Latino vote in 20 years, and the first Republican governor to do so since Brian Sandoval in Nevada in 2014. ... Devon Murphy-Anderson, the former finance director for the Florida Democratic Party and cofounder of Mi Vecino, which works to activate Latino voters in Florida, told Newsweek that while Miami-Dade is getting all of the attention, DeSantis' complete and total win also impressively flipped traditional blue areas like Palm Beach County and Hillsborough County. "It's important to know this was a strategy from Florida Republicans, and not to shift the blame to Latino voters," she argued, seeing the results as "a response to strategic investment by a political party."
DeSantis outperformed Trump's 2020 figures in key groups that Democrats will need to hold onto the White House. He made gains with Latinos, women and even slightly with black voters, which allowed him to flip counties that traditionally favour Democrats such as Palm Beach, Osceola and of course Miami Dade. He was the first Republican governor since 2002 to win the state's most populous and heavily Hispanic county - not only with Cuban Americans who traditionally lean Republican but also many South Americans and Puerto Ricans who tend to vote Democratic. Joe Biden won the Latino vote in Florida by seven points in 2020 and now DeSantis has carried it by 15 points. These results will shape Florida's politics for years to come. In his victory speech, the governor declared that they had "rewritten the political map". There is no question that Florida is now a Republican state, ending its status as one of the most important swing states in the nation.
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