2022 United States Senate election in Iowa

Last updated

2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
Flag of Iowa.svg
  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  
  Chuck Grassley official photo 2017 (cropped).jpg VICE ADMIRAL MICHAEL T. FRANKEN (cropped).jpg
Nominee Chuck Grassley Michael Franken
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote681,501533,330
Percentage56.01%43.84%

2022 United States Senate election in Iowa results map by county.svg
2022 US Senate Election in Iowa by Congressional District.svg
IA Senate 2022.svg
Grassley:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Franken:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa. Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley defeated Democratic nominee Michael Franken to win re-election to an eighth term. [1]

Contents

Grassley was first elected in 1980 and was most recently re-elected in 2016. Grassley, who turned 89 years old on September 17, 2022, ran for reelection to an eighth term. [2] With U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy retiring the same year, he became the second-oldest person ever to be re-elected for another term (behind Strom Thurmond in 1996 at age 93), on January 3, 2023, upon the departure of Patrick Leahy from the United States Senate Chuck Grassley became the most senior member in the Senate, and on January 4, 2023, he became the longest-serving Republican senator in history (overtaking Orrin Hatch), as well as the most senior member of Congress since January 3, 2023.

Despite his victory, this was Grassley's closest Senate race since he was first elected in 1980 and worst performance as he did not crack 60% of the vote. Franken also beat Grassley in Linn, Story, and Polk counties, all of which Grassley had won in every election since 1986. In addition, this election was the first time that Grassley lost Black Hawk County. This election also sought the Class III seat's worst performance by a Republican since 1962, and best performance by a Democrat since 1980.

Republican primary

State Senator Jim Carlin challenged Grassley in the primary. Iowa State Senator Jim Carlin (cropped).jpg
State Senator Jim Carlin challenged Grassley in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

CandidateTotal receiptsCoverage ending
Chuck Grassley$6,881,288Coverage ending: May 18, 2022 [8]
Jim Carlin$508,308Coverage ending: May 18, 2022 [8]

Results

Results by county
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Grassley
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Iowa results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Grassley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 143,634 73.34%
Republican Jim Carlin 51,89126.50%
Write-in 3120.16%
Total votes195,837 100.0%

Democratic primary

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer finished second in the primary. CongresswomanFinkenauer (cropped).jpg
Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer was the original frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with her campaign being backed by several prominent politicians and labor unions, as well as the influential political action committee EMILY's List. [25] However, in an upset, retired vice-admiral Michael Franken managed to slowly overtake her as the perceived frontrunner, assisted by an effective campaign that highlighted his leadership credentials. [25]

Fundraising

CandidateTotal receiptsCoverage ending
Abby Finkenauer$3,740,881Coverage ending: May 18, 2022 [8]
Michael Franken$2,863,882Coverage ending: May 18, 2022 [8]
Glenn Hurst$129,618Coverage ending: May 18, 2022 [8]

Endorsements

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Abby
Finkenauer
Michael
Franken
Glenn
Hurst
Undecided
Change Research (D) [40] [A] May 4–8, 2022866 (LV)± 4.0%40%42%4%14%
Change Research (D) [40] [A] April 6–11, 2022416 (LV)± 6.3%53%26%7%14%
GBAO (D) [41] [B] March 30 – April 3, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%64%15%6%15%

Results

Results by county
Franken
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Finkenauer
40-50%
50-60%
60-70% 2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Iowa results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Franken
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Finkenauer
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Michael Franken 86,527 55.17%
Democratic Abby Finkenauer 62,58139.90%
Democratic Glenn Hurst7,5714.83%
Write-in 1580.10%
Total votes156,837 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [42] Solid RNovember 7, 2022
Inside Elections [43] Solid RAugust 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [44] Safe RAugust 31, 2022
Politico [45] Likely ROctober 18, 2022
RCP [46] Likely ROctober 15, 2022
Fox News [47] Likely RAugust 22, 2022
DDHQ [48] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [49] Solid RSeptember 6, 2022
The Economist [50] Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Iowa debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Chuck Grassley Michael Franken
1October 6, 2022 Iowa PBS O. Kay Henderson [51] PP

Endorsements

Chuck Grassley (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Individuals

Newspapers

Organization

Michael Franken (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspaper and other media

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Michael
Franken (D)
Undecided
[b]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight [100] October 2 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202251.8%42.2%6.0%Grassley +9.6
270towin [101] October 26 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202253.0%42.7%4.3%Grassley +10.3
Average52.4%42.5%5.1%Grassley +9.9

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Michael
Franken (D)
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Co. [102] October 31 – November 3, 2022801 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%4% [c] 2%
Cygnal (R) [103] [C] October 26–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%54%43%3%
Civiqs [104] October 22–25, 2022623 (LV)± 5.2%52%44%3% [d] 2%
The Tarrance Group (R) [105] [D] October 15–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.1%53%42%4%
Change Research (D) [106] [A] October 14–18, 20221,008 (LV)± 3.3%48%45%6%
Selzer & Co. [107] October 9–12, 2022620 (LV)± 3.9%46%43%8% [e] 3%
Emerson College [108] October 2–4, 2022959 (LV)± 3.1%49%38%4%9%
Cygnal (R) [109] [C] October 2–4, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%54%40%6%
Change Research (D) [110] [A] September 3–8, 20221,143 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Cygnal (R) [111] [C] July 13–14, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%52%43%5%
Selzer & Co. [112] July 10–13, 2022597 (LV)± 4.0%47%39%7%5%
Change Research (D) [113] [A] June 30 – July 4, 20221,488 (LV)± 2.7%49%44%7%
Change Research (D) [114] [A] April 6–11, 20221,070 (LV)± 4.0%45%42%13%
Hypothetical polling

Chuck Grassley vs. Abby Finkenauer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Abby
Finkenauer (D)
OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R) [115] March 8–13, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%45%36%6%14%
Cygnal (R) [116] [C] February 20–22, 2022610 (LV)± 3.9%53%39%8%
Data for Progress (D) [117] December 2–13, 2021770 (LV)± 4.0%53%39%8%
Cygnal (R) [118] [C] October 18–19, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%55%39%6%
Selzer & Co. [119] September 12–15, 2021620 (LV)± 3.9%55%37%1% [f] 7%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 681,501 56.01% −4.08%
Democratic Michael Franken 533,33043.84%+8.18%
Write-in 1,8150.15%+0.04%
Total votes1,216,646 100% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grassley won all 4 congressional districts. [120]

DistrictGrassleyFrankenRepresentative
1st 53%47% Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd 55%45% Ashley Hinson
3rd 51%48% Cindy Axne (117th Congress)
Zach Nunn (118th Congress)
4th 66%34% Randy Feenstra

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. "Someone else" with 3%; "Don't want to tell" with 1%
  4. "Someone else" with 3%
  5. "Someone else" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  6. "Would not vote" (volunteered answer) with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 This poll was sponsored by Franken's campaign
  2. This poll was sponsored by Finkenauer's campaign
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 This poll was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. Poll conducted for the NRSC.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chuck Grassley</span> American politician (born 1933)

Charles Ernest Grassley is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator from Iowa, having held the seat since 1981. Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980 and has been reelected seven times. As of 2024, he is the oldest senator at 91 years old, and is the longest-serving Republican in Congressional history and the sixth-longest-serving U.S. senator in history.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Iowa House of Representatives</span> State of Iowa legislative body

The Iowa House of Representatives is the lower house of the Iowa General Assembly, the upper house being the Iowa Senate. There are 100 seats in the Iowa House of Representatives, representing 100 single-member districts across the state, formed by dividing the 50 Senate districts in half. Each district has a population of approximately 30,464 as of the 2010 United States Census. The House of Representatives meets at the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Abby Finkenauer</span> American politician (born 1988)

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