2022 Colorado gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Colorado gubernatorial election
Flag of Colorado.svg
  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  
Turnout66.28% Decrease2.svg
  Jared Polis official photo (cropped).jpg Heidi Ganahl New (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jared Polis Heidi Ganahl
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Dianne Primavera Danny Moore
Popular vote1,468,481983,040
Percentage58.53%39.18%

2022 Colorado gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Colorado Governor election by Congressional District.svg
2022COGOVSD.svg
CO Governor 2022.svg
Polis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ganahl:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

Governor before election

Jared Polis
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jared Polis
Democratic

The 2022 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Democratic governor Jared Polis won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican University of Colorado regent Heidi Ganahl in a landslide. Ganahl conceded on election night. [1] The primary election was held on June 28. [2]

Contents

Polis's 2022 victory marked the first time in American history that an openly gay politician was re-elected as the governor of a state. [3] Polis had the best performance for a re-elected Colorado governor since Bill Owens in 2002, the best for a Democrat since Roy Romer in 1990, and the highest raw vote total ever in a Colorado gubernatorial race.

Democratic assembly

Candidates

Nominated at assembly

Eliminated at assembly

  • None

Results

Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jared Polis (incumbent) 523,489 100.00%
Total votes523,489 100.00%

Republican primary

Former Colorado SBA director Greg Lopez finished second in the primary. Greg Lopez.JPG
Former Colorado SBA director Greg Lopez finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Declined

Endorsements

Heidi Ganahl

Statewide officials

Newspapers

Results

Results by county:
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Ganahl
Ganahl--50-60%
Ganahl--60-70%
Lopez
Lopez--50-60%
Lopez--60-70% 2022 Colorado gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Ganahl
  •   Ganahl—50–60%
  •   Ganahl—60–70%
  Lopez
  •   Lopez—50–60%
  •   Lopez—60–70%
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Heidi Ganahl 341,157 53.87%
Republican Greg Lopez 292,18746.13%
Total votes633,344 100.0%

American Constitution convention

Danielle Neuschwanger, the Constitution nominee Danielle Neuschwanger (cropped).JPG
Danielle Neuschwanger, the Constitution nominee

Candidates

Nominee

  • Danielle Neuschwanger, realtor (previously ran for Republican nomination) [18]
    • Running mate: Darryl Gibbs, truck driver and U.S. Air Force veteran (previously ran for Republican nomination) [19]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [20] Solid DJuly 29, 2022
Inside Elections [21] Solid DJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [22] Safe DOctober 12, 2022
Politico [23] Likely DApril 1, 2022
RCP [24] Likely DOctober 20, 2022
Fox News [25] Likely DMay 12, 2022
538 [26] Solid DJuly 31, 2022
Elections Daily [27] Safe DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Heidi Ganahl (R)

Federal officials

Statewide officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Danielle Neuschwanger (ACP)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Jared
Polis (D)
Heidi
Ganahl (R)
Other
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [51] October 26 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202253.0%42.3%4.7%Polis +10.7
FiveThirtyEight [52] June 8 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202254.1%41.8%4.1%Polis +12.3
270ToWin [53] November 1–7, 2022November 8, 202254.0%42.0%4.0%Polis +12.0
Average53.7%42.0%4.3%Polis +11.7

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Heidi
Ganahl (R)
OtherUndecided
co/efficient (R) [54] November 3–7, 2022856 (LV)± 3.3%54%43%2% [c] 2%
Data for Progress (D) [55] November 2–5, 20221,983 (LV)± 2.0%55%43%2% [d]
The Trafalgar Group (R) [56] October 30 – November 1, 20221,084 (LV)± 2.9%50%43%5% [e] 3%
Emerson College [57] October 26–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%54%40%4% [f] 3%
54%41%4% [g]
The Trafalgar Group (R) [58] [A] October 25–27, 20221,174 (LV)± 2.9%50%42%6% [h] 3%
CU Boulder/YouGov [59] October 11–19, 2022709 (LV)± 4.4%57%41%2% [i]
Civiqs [60] October 15–18, 2022600 (LV)± 5.0%55%40%2% [j] 3%
Global Strategy Group (D) [61] [B] October 6–11, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%52%34%6% [k] 8%
54%39%7%
Marist College [62] October 3–6, 20221,127 (RV)± 4.7%54%36%2% [l] 7%
983 (LV)± 5.0%54%39%3% [m] 5%
Data for Progress (D) [63] October 3–6, 20221,005 (LV)± 3.0%56%39%3% [n] 2%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies [64] September 18–26, 20221,060 (LV)± 3.0%51%34%2% [o] 12%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [65] September 20–24, 20221,078 (LV)± 2.9%49%41%4% [p] 6%
Emerson College [66] September 18–19, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%53%36%2% [q] 9%
Remington Research Group (R) [67] [A] August 21–22, 20221,503 (LV)± 2.5%49%42%9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [68] August 15–19, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%47%42%6% [r] 5%
Global Strategy Group (D) [69] [B] June 2–8, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%50%32%5% [s] 13%
54%37%9%
Global Strategy Group (D) [70] [B] February 11–15, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%53%37%10%
Global Strategy Group (D) [71] [B] October 19–24, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%52%35%13%
Global Strategy Group (D) [72] [B] June 17–23, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%54%34%12%
Hypothetical polling

Jared Polis vs. Greg Lopez

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Greg
Lopez (R)
Danielle
Neuschwanger (ACP)
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) [69] [B] June 2–8, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%52%32%6%10%
53%39%8%

Jared Polis vs. Danielle Neuschwanger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Danielle
Neuschwanger (R)
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) [70] [B] February 11–15, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%51%40%9%

Jared Polis vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) [73] [B] June 2–8, 2022800 (RV)± 3.4%54%38%8%
Global Strategy Group (D) [70] [B] February 11–15, 2022400 (RV)± 4.9%54%38%8%
Cygnal (R) [74] [C] January 12–13, 2022630 (LV)± 3.9%49%44%8%
Global Strategy Group (D) [75] [B] June 17–23, 2021800 (RV)± 3.5%49%39%12%

Debates

2022 Colorado gubernatorial general election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:

 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn

Jared Polis Heidi Ganahl
2Oct. 14, 2022 CBS Colorado PP

Results

2022 Colorado gubernatorial election swing map by county.svg
2022 Colorado gubernatorial election trend map by county.svg
2022 Colorado gubernatorial election [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
1,468,481 58.53% +5.11%
Republican
983,04039.18%−3.62%
Libertarian
  • Kevin Ruskusky
  • Michele Poague
28,9391.15%−1.60%
American Constitution
  • Danielle Neuschwanger
  • Darryl Gibbs
21,6230.86%N/A
Unity
6,6870.27%−0.75%
Write-in 600.0%N/A
Total votes2,540,680 100.0% N/A
Turnout 2,540,68066.28%
Registered electors 3,833,360
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Polis won 6 of 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. [77]

DistrictPolisGanahlRepresentative
1st 82%17% Diana DeGette
2nd 72%26% Joe Neguse
3rd 50%47% Lauren Boebert
4th 43%55% Ken Buck
5th 47%50% Doug Lamborn
6th 63%35% Jason Crow
7th 60%38% Ed Perlmutter (117th Congress)
Brittany Pettersen (118th Congress)
8th 53%45% Yadira Caraveo

Analysis

Incumbent governor Jared Polis easily won re-election by 19.3%, a margin much larger than aggregate polling predicted. Polis piled up massive margins in the heavily populous North Central Colorado Urban Area, which contains the state capital Denver plus its surrounding suburbs Aurora, Thornton, Lakewood, and Broomfield; in addition to other major cities Boulder and Fort Collins, home to the University of Colorado and Colorado State University respectively. Outside the Denver-Boulder-Fort Collins region, Polis also won a long row of counties along the Rocky Mountains from Routt in the north to La Plata in the south, which contains a number of liberal leaning ski resort towns like Telluride, Aspen, and Steamboat Springs. In Southern Colorado, a region historically known for coal mining, and home to a sizable Hispanic population, Polis managed to halt the decline in support for Democrats that had been taking place here since the mid-2010s in both state and federal races. Polis also won the relatively conservative city of Colorado Springs, the first Democrat to do so in recent history, along with greatly increasing his vote share in conservative-leaning urban counties compared to 2018. [78] Polis's definitive victory likely helped other Democrats down the ballot to win their races or win them by comfortable margins, allowing Democrats to keep control of the state government. [79]

Heidi Ganahl did best in the traditionally rural areas of Colorado bordering Kansas in the east, Utah in the west, and several larger counties including Weld (Greeley), Douglas (Castle Rock and Highlands Ranch), and El Paso (Colorado Springs). In the latter two counties, Ganahl significantly underperformed previous Republican nominees in these traditionally conservative urban counties, winning Douglas by 0.38% and El Paso by 3.97%, the closest either county had come to voting Democratic since 1994 and 1982 respectively. Ganahl failed to appeal to the large unaffiliated bloc of state voters along with political moderates. During her campaign, she highlighted her opposition to abortion (at odds with most Colorado voters), utilized incendiary right-wing rhetoric in regards to several social and cultural issues, and courted figures involved with pushing conspiracy theories about elections. [80] [81]

Prior to the election, an article by Daniel Strain from the University of Colorado reported that 71% of Colorado voters said their state's elections will be conducted "fairly and accurately", while 54% said the same for other elections across the United States. 53% of voters also disapproved of the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization to overturn Roe v. Wade . 63% of voters said Joe Biden won the 2020 election, although Biden had a 52% disapproval among Centennial State voters compared to 39% who approved of him. [82]

Despite Biden's low approval, a Marist poll conducted in October found that amongst 1,221 Colorado adults, Governor Polis had a 50% approval, while Ganahl suffered from low name recognition, with 42% having either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her. The same poll also found that 34% of voters were most concerned about inflation, followed by preserving democracy at 29%, abortion at 16%, crime at 7%, followed by healthcare and immigration at 6% each. [83]

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Someone else" with 2%
  4. Ruskusky (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  5. Ruskusky (L) with 2%; "Other" with 3%
  6. Neuschwanger (ACP) with 2%; Fiorino (U) with 1%; Ruskusky (L) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  7. "Someone else" with 2%; Neuschwanger (ACP) with 2%; Fiorino (U) with 1%; Ruskusky (L) with <1%
  8. Neuschwanger (ACP) with 3%; Ruskusky (L) with 2%; Fiorino (U) with 1%
  9. "Other" with 2%
  10. "Someone else" with 2%
  11. Ruskusky (L) with 4%; Neuschwanger (ACP) with 2%
  12. "Another party's candidate" with 2%
  13. "Another party's candidate" with 3%
  14. Ruskusky (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 2%
  15. Ruskusky (L) with 1%; Neuschwanger (ACP) with 1%
  16. Ruskusky (L) with 2%; "Other" with 2%
  17. "Someone else" with 2%
  18. Ruskusky (L) with 4%; "Other" with 2%
  19. Neuschwanger (ACP) with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Ganahl's campaign
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 This poll was sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado, a liberal nonprofit organization.
  3. This poll was sponsored by Ready Colorado

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