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Turnout | 36.6% (![]() | ||||||||||||||||
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Paxton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Garza: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Texas |
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The 2022 Texas Attorney General election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the Attorney General of Texas. Incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton won re-election to his third term. [1] [2] [3] Paxton won 233 counties and won the popular vote by a margin of 9.7%, underperforming Governor Greg Abbott's concurrent bid for re-election by 1.1%.
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | George P. Bush | Louie Gohmert | Eva Guzman | Matt Krause | Ken Paxton | Other | Undecided | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [23] | February 21–22, 2022 | 522 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 20% | 12% | 12% | – | 43% | – | 14% | ||||||
UT Tyler [24] | February 8–15, 2022 | 577 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 25% | 7% | 13% | – | 39% | – | 16% | ||||||
YouGov/UT [25] | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 375 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 21% | 15% | 16% | – | 47% | 1% | – | ||||||
UT Tyler [26] | January 18–25, 2022 | 503 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 19% | 8% | 7% | – | 33% | – | 33% | ||||||
YouGov/UH [27] | January 14–24, 2022 | 490 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 16% | 13% | 8% | – | 39% | – | 24% | ||||||
Krause withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
UT Tyler [28] | November 9–16, 2021 | 401 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 32% | – | 7% | – | 46% | 7% | 8% | ||||||
YouGov/UT/TT [29] | October 22–31, 2021 | 554 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 16% | – | 2% | 3% | 48% | 3% | 27% | ||||||
YouGov/TXHPF [30] | October 14–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 17% | – | 6% | 2% | 50% | – | 25% | ||||||
UT Tyler [31] | September 7–14, 2021 | 348 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 28% | – | 5% | – | 43% | 14% | 10% | ||||||
UT Tyler [32] | June 20–29, 2021 | 337 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 34% | – | 4% | – | 42% | 12% | 8% |
Gohmert performed best in Texas's 1st congressional district, where he served as a US representative at the time; Guzman performed best in urban Travis, Harris, and Dallas counties; Bush performed best in the Rio Grande Valley; and Paxton performed best in the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Southeast Texas. [33]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ken Paxton (incumbent) | 823,199 | 42.71% | |
Republican | George P. Bush | 439,240 | 22.79% | |
Republican | Eva Guzman | 337,761 | 17.52% | |
Republican | Louie Gohmert | 327,257 | 16.98% | |
Total votes | 1,927,457 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | George P. Bush | Ken Paxton | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Tyler [36] | May 2–10, 2022 | 570 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 35% | 41% | 24% |
CWS Research (R) [37] [A] | May 4–10, 2022 | 992 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 31% | 58% | 11% |
CWS Research (R) [38] [A] | March 29 – April 2, 2022 | 678 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 30% | 59% | 11% |
YouGov/TXHPF [39] | March 18–28, 2022 | 438 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 23% | 65% | 12% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ken Paxton (incumbent) | 633,223 | 67.96% | |
Republican | George P. Bush | 298,577 | 32.04% | |
Total votes | 931,800 | 100.00% |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Mike Fields | Rochelle Garza | Joe Jaworski | Lee Merritt | S. T-Bone Raynor | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [23] | February 21–22, 2022 | 388 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 5% | 30% | 22% | 16% | 5% | – | 22% |
UT Tyler [24] | February 8–15, 2022 | 479 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 9% | 22% | 13% | 9% | 6% | – | 42% |
YouGov/UT [25] | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 332 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 11% | 41% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | – |
UT Tyler [26] | January 18–25, 2022 | 460 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 6% | 4% | – | 61% |
YouGov/UH [27] | January 14–24, 2022 | 616 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 6% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 6% | – | 57% |
YouGov/UT/TT [29] | October 22–31, 2021 | 436 (RV) | ± 4.7% | – | – | 14% | 8% | – | 6% | 72% |
YouGov/TXHPF [30] | October 14–27, 2021 | – (LV) | – | – | – | 20% | 20% | – | – | 60% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Rochelle Mercedes Garza | 438,134 | 42.97% | |
Democratic | Joe Jaworski | 202,140 | 19.82% | |
Democratic | Lee Merritt | 198,108 | 19.43% | |
Democratic | Mike Fields | 125,373 | 12.30% | |
Democratic | S. T-Bone Raynor | 55,944 | 5.49% | |
Total votes | 1,019,699 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Rochelle Garza | Joe Jaworski | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UT Tyler [36] | May 2–10, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 35% | 20% | 46% |
YouGov/TXHPF [39] | March 18–28, 2022 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 46% | 31% | 23% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Rochelle Mercedes Garza | 305,168 | 62.67% | |
Democratic | Joe Jaworski | 181,744 | 37.33% | |
Total votes | 486,912 | 100.00% |
On October 27, 2022, Libertarian nominee Mark Ash published an op-ed in The Amarillo Pioneer in which he blasted Ken Paxton as "the poster child for corruption and authoritarianism" and recommended that if voters were "reluctant to throw away their votes on a third-party candidate," they should vote for Democratic nominee Rochelle Garza instead. The Texas Democratic Party put out a statement claiming that Ash had endorsed Garza, but Ash clarified that he was not endorsing her, nor would he be dropping out of the race. [68]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Sabato's Crystal Ball [69] | Leans R | November 3, 2022 |
Elections Daily [70] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
Graphical summary
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | Rochelle Garza (D) | Mark Ash (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CWS Research (R) [71] [A] | November 2–5, 2022 | 786 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 38% | 5% | – | 12% |
UT Tyler [72] | October 17–24, 2022 | 1,330 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 39% | 35% | 5% | 4% [b] | 18% |
973 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | 4% | 3% [c] | 12% | ||
Emerson College [73] | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 42% | 4% | – | 8% |
Siena College [74] | October 16–19, 2022 | 649 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 48% | 42% | – | 2% [d] | 8% |
ActiVote [75] | June 23 – September 21, 2022 | 209 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 45% | 43% | 12% | – | – |
Siena College [76] | September 14–18, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 42% | – | – | 11% |
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation [77] | September 6–15, 2022 | 1,172 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 42% | 3% | – | 8% |
UT Tyler [78] | September 7–13, 2022 | 1,243 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 37% | 30% | 6% | 6% [e] | 20% |
YouGov/UT [79] | August 26 – September 6, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 38% | 33% | 4% | 5% [f] | 21% |
YouGov/UH/TSU [80] | August 11–29, 2022 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 42% | 3% | – | 10% |
UT Tyler [81] | August 1–7, 2022 | 1,384 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 34% | 32% | 8% | 7% | 18% |
1,199 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 34% | 8% | 6% | 16% | ||
YouGov/UH [82] | June 27 – July 7, 2022 | 1,169 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 40% | 5% | – | 12% |
1,006 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 41% | 4% | – | 9% | ||
YouGov/UT [83] | June 16–24, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 37% | 29% | 5% | 5% | 24% |
YouGov/TXHPF [39] | March 18–28, 2022 | 1,139 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 42% | 3% | – | 7% |
George P. Bush vs. Rochelle Garza
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | George P. Bush (R) | Rochelle Garza (D) | Mark Ash (L) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov/TXHPF [39] | March 18–28, 2022 | 1,139 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 39% | 7% | 15% |
George P. Bush vs. Joe Jaworski
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | George P. Bush (R) | Joe Jaworski (D) | Mark Ash (L) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov/TXHPF [39] | March 18–28, 2022 | 1,139 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 38% | 39% | 8% | 15% |
Ken Paxton vs. Joe Jaworski
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | Joe Jaworski (D) | Mark Ash (L) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov/TXHPF [39] | March 18–28, 2022 | 1,139 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 41% | 3% | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Justin Nelson
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | Justin Nelson (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) [84] [B] | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ken Paxton (incumbent) | 4,278,986 | 53.42% | +2.85% | |
Democratic | Rochelle Garza | 3,497,267 | 43.66% | −3.35% | |
Libertarian | Mark Ash | 233,750 | 2.92% | +0.49% | |
Total votes | 8,010,003 | 100.00% | |||
Republican hold |
Paxton won 25 of 38 congressional districts. [85]
Partisan clients
We recommend Galveston lawyer Joe Jaworski in this crowded Democratic primary for Texas attorney general.
Official campaign websites