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Bennet: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% O'Dea: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Colorado |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet won reelection to a third term, defeating the Republican candidate, businessman Joe O'Dea. Originally appointed to the seat in 2009, [1] Bennet won full terms in 2010 and 2016. [2] [3]
Bennet won by nearly 15 points, significantly outperforming his polling. His margin was the highest for a Democrat in a Senate election in Colorado since 1974. This was the first time in Bennet's Senate career that he received a majority of the vote.
The election resulted in both the best performance by a Democrat, and the worst performance by a Republican in the Class 3 seat since 1974.
Bennet was appointed to the U.S. Senate in January 2009 by Governor Bill Ritter following the resignation of the incumbent Senator, Ken Salazar, who become the Secretary of the Interior under President Barack Obama. Bennet was then narrowly elected in 2010 for his first full term, defeating Representative Ken Buck with 48.08% of the vote. In the 2016 election, he was re-elected to a second term with 49.97% of the vote, defeating Republican El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn.
Due to some of his centrist positions, such as his opposition to Medicare for All and his support for fracking, Bennet faced a potential challenge from the left, particularly from Joe Salazar, a former state representative. Salazar ultimately opted to run for the Colorado State Senate, and thus Bennet was easily renominated at the Democratic convention. [4]
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Michael Bennet (incumbent) | 516,985 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 516,985 | 100.0% |
Initially, a wide field of candidates declared their intention to seek the Republican nomination. However, instead of gathering the required number of signatures to be placed on the primary ballot, Bremer and most of the other candidates sought to earn the nomination by winning the required 30% of the delegate vote at the Colorado GOP convention in April 2022. As a result of the crowded field of candidates, delegate support was divided, with only State Representative Ron Hanks crossing the 30% threshold. Debora Flora, a radio show host, missed the ballot by a single percentage point, receiving 29% of the vote. [22]
With the other candidates eliminated, State Representative Ron Hanks and construction CEO Joe O'Dea were the only two candidates on the primary ballot. The contrast between the two Republicans was stark. Hanks supported a complete ban on abortion and echoed former president Donald Trump's assertions of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, while the more moderate O'Dea expressed support for LGBTQ rights, some abortion rights, and rejected Trump's claims of widespread voter fraud. [23]
Though O'Dea was initially considered the frontrunner as a result of his fundraising advantage, Hanks was buoyed by an attempt by Democrats to influence the primary. Democratic Colorado, an entity formed in June 2022, received roughly $4 million from the Senate Majority Fund, a PAC associated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. They ran ads characterizing Hanks as "too conservative", in order to elevate Hanks over O'Dea, who was perceived as a stronger general election candidate. [24] This attempt to interfere in the GOP primary was denounced by numerous former Colorado Democratic officials, including former governor Roy Romer, and former senators Mark Udall, Tim Wirth, and Gary Hart, who previously mounted unsuccessful attempts to win the Democratic nomination for president in 1984 and 1988. [25]
Despite the support from Democrats and his lobbying for the endorsement of Donald Trump, Hanks was defeated by O'Dea by a 9% margin. He performed best in rural parts of the state, while O'Dea was successful in urban areas, such as Denver. [26]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Ron Hanks | Joe O'Dea | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [70] [A] | May 15–20, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 14% | 38% | 47% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Joe O'Dea | 345,060 | 54.44% | |
Republican | Ron Hanks | 288,483 | 45.51% | |
Republican | Daniel Hendricks (write-in) | 302 | 0.05% | |
Total votes | 633,845 | 100.0% |
In recent years, Colorado has started voting more Democratic in the federal level, transitioning from a purple state to a moderately (and increasingly strongly) blue state, and the shift was largely contributed to the left-wing shift in the growing Denver metropolitan area, with President Joe Biden winning the state by 13.5% in the 2020 election, almost nine points to the left of the national result of around 4.9%. Prevailing in 2010, a year where Colorado was considered a swing state and Democrats performed very poorly, Bennet had a generally strong electoral history. He also outperformed Hillary Clinton on the same ballot in 2016. Ahead of 2022, Bennet was generally favored to win, though polling showed him as potentially vulnerable, largely due to the state of the economy and President Biden's low approval ratings. [71] Colorado had not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Cory Gardner in 2014, another very strong year for Republicans nationwide and while Colorado was still considered a swing state, even then Gardner only won narrowly. Bennet ultimately won reelection by a comfortable 14.6 point margin, outperforming Biden's victory two years prior and his own polling averages. Bennet also flipped three counties he had lost in his 2016 re-election bid, flipping Grand County by a narrow 1.1% and Chaffee County, and Garfield County by wide margins. However, O'Dea did narrowly flip Conejos County by a slim 1%. [72]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [73] | Lean D | August 18, 2022 |
Inside Elections [74] | Likely D | June 29, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [75] | Likely D | March 1, 2022 |
Politico [76] | Lean D | August 12, 2022 |
RCP [77] | Tossup | November 4, 2022 |
Fox News [78] | Lean D | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ [79] | Likely D | July 20, 2022 |
538 [80] | Likely D | August 18, 2022 |
The Economist [81] | Likely D | September 7, 2022 |
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Michael Bennet (D) | Joe O'Dea (R) | Undecided [b] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics [105] | October 26 – November 5, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 50.0% | 44.3% | 5.7% | Bennet +5.7 |
FiveThirtyEight [106] | July 26 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 51.3% | 42.9% | 5.8% | Bennet +8.4 |
270towin [107] | November 1–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 51.0% | 43.4% | 6.6% | Bennet +6.6 |
Average | 50.8% | 43.5% | 5.7% | Bennet +7.3 |
Graphical summary
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Michael Bennet (D) | Joe O'Dea (R) | Brian Peotter (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient (R) [108] | November 3–7, 2022 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 43% | – | 3% [c] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) [109] | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,983 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 44% | 2% | 2% [d] | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [110] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
Emerson College [111] | October 26–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 42% | 2% | 3% [e] | 5% |
51% | 43% | 2% | 3% [f] | – | ||||
co/efficient (R) [112] | October 24–25, 2022 | 826 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 34% | – | 6% [g] | 10% |
CU Boulder/YouGov [113] | October 11–19, 2022 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 42% | – | 2% [h] | – |
Civiqs [114] | October 15–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 41% | – | 2% [i] | 3% |
Global Strategy Group (D) [115] [B] | October 6–11, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 38% | 7% | – | 7% |
52% | 42% | – | – | 6% | ||||
Marist College [116] | October 3–6, 2022 | 1,127 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 41% | – | 2% [j] | 9% |
983 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 43% | – | 2% [k] | 7% | ||
Data for Progress (D) [117] | October 3–6, 2022 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 41% | 3% | 1% [l] | 5% |
OnMessage Inc. (R) [118] [C] | September 20–27, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | – | 4% [m] | 5% |
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies [119] | September 18–26, 2022 | 1,060 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | – | – | 18% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [120] | September 20–24, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 43% | 4% | <1% [n] | 5% |
Emerson College [121] | September 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 36% | – | 4% [o] | 14% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [122] | August 30–31, 2022 | 782 (V) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 35% | 7% | – | 12% |
The Tarrance Group (R) [123] [D] | August 22–25, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 47% | – | – | 5% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [124] | August 15–19, 2022 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 5% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [125] | July 24–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 40% | – | – | 12% |
Global Strategy Group (D) [126] [B] | June 2–8, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 36% | – | – | 14% |
Michael Bennet vs. Ron Hanks
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Michael Bennet (D) | Ron Hanks (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D) [126] [B] | June 2–8, 2022 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
Global Strategy Group (D) [127] [B] | October 19–24, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 34% | 13% |
Michael Bennet vs. Eli Bremer
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Michael Bennet (D) | Eli Bremer (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D) [127] [B] | October 19–24, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
co/efficient (R) [128] [E] | September 9–12, 2021 | 742 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 32% | 22% |
Michael Bennet vs. Gino Campana
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Michael Bennet (D) | Gino Campana (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blueprint Polling (D) [129] | April 6–8, 2022 | 612 (V) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Michael Bennet vs. Lauren Boebert
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Michael Bennet (D) | Lauren Boebert (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D) [130] [B] | June 17–23, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Michael Bennet vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Michael Bennet (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global Strategy Group (D) [131] [B] | June 2–8, 2022 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
Cygnal (R) [132] [F] | January 12–13, 2022 | 630 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Global Strategy Group (D) [130] [B] | June 17–23, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Michael Bennet vs. generic opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Michael Bennet (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [125] | July 24–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
co/efficient (R) [128] [E] | September 9–12, 2021 | 742 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
Michael Bennet | Joe O'Dea | |||||
1 | Oct. 28, 2022 | Colorado State University | [133] | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Michael Bennet (incumbent) | 1,397,170 | 55.88% | +5.91% | |
Republican | Joe O'Dea | 1,031,693 | 41.26% | −3.05% | |
Libertarian | Brian Peotter | 43,534 | 1.74% | −1.88% | |
Unity | T.J. Cole | 16,379 | 0.66% | +0.32% | |
Approval Voting | Frank Atwood | 11,354 | 0.45% | N/A | |
Write-in | 71 | 0.00% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,500,201 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
Bennet won 5 of 8 congressional districts. [135]
District | Bennet | O'Dea | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 80% | 18% | Diana DeGette |
2nd | 69% | 28% | Joe Neguse |
3rd | 48% | 49% | Lauren Boebert |
4th | 40% | 57% | Ken Buck |
5th | 44% | 52% | Doug Lamborn |
6th | 60% | 38% | Jason Crow |
7th | 57% | 40% | Ed Perlmutter (117th Congress) |
Brittany Pettersen (118th Congress) | |||
8th | 50% | 46% | Yadira Caraveo |
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