Public Policy Polling

Last updated
Public Policy Polling
Company type Private
Industry Opinion polling
Founded2001;23 years ago (2001)
Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S.
FounderDean Debnam
Headquarters
2912 Highwoods Boulevard, Suite 201
Raleigh, North Carolina
,
U.S.
Area served
United States
Key people
Tom Jensen (Director)
Website publicpolicypolling.com

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party. [1] [2] [3] Founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm is based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Debnam passed away in 2024. [4] Tom Jensen serves as the firm's director. [5]

Contents

In addition to political issues, PPP has conducted polling on comical topics. These include surveys of whether Republican voters believe Barack Obama would be eligible to enter heaven in the event of the Rapture, [6] whether hipsters should be subjected to a special tax for being annoying, [7] and whether Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer. [8] [9]

Elections

2008

PPP first entered prominence through its performance in the 2008 Democratic primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The company performed well, producing accurate predictions in states ranging from South Carolina to Wisconsin, many of which featured inaccurate results by other pollsters. [10] [ non-primary source needed ] [11] After the November election, PPP was ranked by the Wall Street Journal as one of the two most accurate firms, among those who were most active in the presidential swing states. [2]

2010

PPP was the first pollster to find Scott Brown with a lead over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election; Brown ultimately won in a major comeback, and PPP's final poll in that race predicted Brown's winning margin exactly. [12]

2011

PPP was praised[ by whom? ] for its accuracy in polling primaries and special elections, which are notoriously hard to predict. The contests they accurately predicted include the West Virginia gubernatorial primaries, special elections in New York and California, [13] [14] as well as all eight Wisconsin recall elections.

2012

A study by Fordham University found that, of 28 firms studied, PPP had the most accurate poll on the presidential national popular vote, both its independently conducted poll and the one it does in collaboration with the Daily Kos and the SEIU. [15] [16] PPP correctly called the winner of the presidential election in all 19 states it polled in the final week of the election, as well as the winners of all the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races it surveyed. [17] [18] [19] [20] [21]

2014

Political research firm YouGov found PPP's gubernatorial polls to have the lowest average margin of error among national firms that polled in at least five gubernatorial races in the month preceding the election. [22]

2016

In the 2016 Presidential Election, PPP's final polls widely missed the mark in several key swing states, including New Hampshire, [23] North Carolina, [24] Pennsylvania, [25] and Wisconsin. [26] Their polls also significantly underestimated President Trump's lead in Ohio, [27] and incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton to win Florida. [28]

Methodology and reception

The company's surveys use Interactive Voice Response (IVR), an automated questionnaire used by other polling firms such as SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports. [29] The journalist Nate Cohn has criticized the company's methodology as being "unscientific". [30]

In 2013 columnist Nate Cohn described PPP as a liberal pollster. [31] Statistician Nate Silver stated that PPP had a tendency to slightly lean Democratic by 1% as of January 2022. [32] As of January 2022, Silver's website, FiveThirtyEight, gave PPP a A− grade in its pollster ranking. [32]

Related Research Articles

An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count.

YouGov plc is a British international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm headquartered in the UK with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.

Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bradley effect</span> Theory about discrepancies between opinion polls and election results in the United States

The Bradley effect, less commonly known as the Wilder effect, is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, an Armenian-American whose aunt perished in the Armenian Genocide, despite Bradley’s being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Virginia gubernatorial election</span>

The 2009 Virginia gubernatorial election took place in Virginia on November 3, 2009. The incumbent governor, Democrat Tim Kaine, was not eligible to run due to term limits established by the Virginia Constitution, though others in the state's executive branch were not restricted. Republican Bob McDonnell was elected as governor as part of a Republican sweep. Republican Bill Bolling was reelected as lieutenant governor, and Republican Ken Cuccinelli was elected as attorney general. The winners were inaugurated on January 16, 2010, and served until January 11, 2014.

<i>FiveThirtyEight</i> American news website

538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. Founder Nate Silver left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin. 538's new owner Disney hired G. Elliott Morris to develop a new model. On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages. The logo was replaced, with the name 538 now used instead of FiveThirtyEight.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Alabama gubernatorial election</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Florida gubernatorial election</span>

The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez. This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election</span>

The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Arizona gubernatorial election</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 South Dakota gubernatorial election</span>

The 2010 South Dakota gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of South Dakota to a four-year term. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Rounds was ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits.

The Quinnipiac University Poll is a public opinion polling center based at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Connecticut. It surveys public opinion in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin and nationally. The poll is unaffiliated with any academic department at the school and is run by Quinnipiac's public relations department.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico</span>

The 2010 congressional elections in New Mexico were held on November 2, 2010, and determined New Mexico's representation in the United States House of Representatives. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; the winners of the election served in the 111th Congress, which began on January 4, 2009, ended on January 3, 2011.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico</span>

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The Monmouth University Polling Institute is a public opinion research institute located on the Monmouth University campus in West Long Branch, New Jersey. The Polling Institute was established in 2005, and since its establishment has been led by director Patrick Murray.

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References

  1. ↑ Pathé, Simone (March 23, 2016). "Not Your Average Pollster: He Says Phones Are Out and Trump Is Credible". Roll Call . Archived from the original on October 5, 2016. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
  2. 1 2 Sarlin, Benjy (August 22, 2011). "How PPP Became The 'It' Democratic Pollster". Talking Points Memo . Archived from the original on October 5, 2016. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
  3. ↑ Kraushaar, Josh (June 23, 2009). "Sen. launches attack -- on polling firm". Politico . Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
  4. ↑ "Dean Debnam Obituary - Raleigh, NC". Dignity Memorial. Retrieved 2024-12-19.
  5. ↑ "About Us" Archived 2012-11-22 at the Wayback Machine , Public Policy Polling, 2012. Retrieved on 6 December 2012.
  6. ↑ Rosenbaum, Ron (July 19, 2011). "Only 19 Percent of Republicans Think Obama Would Be Raptured". Slate. Archived from the original on October 20, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
  7. ↑ "Hipster Tax For Being 'So Annoying' Backed By 27 Percent Of Americans: Poll". The Huffington Post. 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 13 May 2013. Retrieved 14 May 2013.
  8. ↑ Stuart, Tessa (26 February 2016). "Is Ted Cruz the Zodiac Killer? Maybe, Say 38 Percent of Florida Voters". Rolling Stone. Archived from the original on 28 April 2016. Retrieved 1 May 2016.
  9. ↑ "Trump Leads Rubio in Florida- Even Head to Head" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Archived (PDF) from the original on 8 April 2016. Retrieved 1 May 2016.
  10. ↑ "PPP: most accurate numbers in the country for South Carolina". Public Policy Polling. January 26, 2008. Archived from the original on October 14, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
  11. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2012-01-14. Retrieved 2011-09-20.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  12. ↑ Taylor, Jessica (January 9, 2010). "Poll: Scott Brown ahead of Martha Coakley by 1 point". Politico. Archived from the original on September 28, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
  13. ↑ Catanese, David (July 14, 2011). "The polling is right: Why PPP deserves props". Politico. Archived from the original on December 1, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
  14. ↑ Isenstadt, Alex (25 May 2011). "NY-26: The winners and losers". Politico. Archived from the original on August 8, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
  15. ↑ Leighton, Kyle (7 November 2012). "Fordham Study: Public Policy Polling Deemed Most Accurate National Pollster In 2012". Talking Points Memo. Archived from the original on 8 November 2012. Retrieved 7 November 2012.
  16. ↑ Easley, Jonathan (7 November 2012). "Study finds PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012". The Hill. Archived from the original on 15 August 2013. Retrieved 25 April 2013.
  17. ↑ Mahtesian, Charles (7 November 2012). "PPP nailed it". Politico. Archived from the original on 24 December 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2012.
  18. ↑ Bialik, Carl (7 November 2012). "How did pollsters fare on election night?". Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on 13 December 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2012.
  19. ↑ Lauter, David (8 November 2012). "Which pollsters did best: Non-traditional methods were standouts". Los Angeles Times. Archived from the original on 28 November 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2012.
  20. ↑ Enten, Harry (7 November 2012). "How the pollsters won the 2012 US election, mostly". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 9 August 2014. Retrieved 6 December 2012.
  21. ↑ LoGiurato, Brett (12 November 2012). "How a three-man polling team completely nailed their election prediction". Business Insider. Archived from the original on 16 December 2012. Retrieved 6 December 2012.
  22. ↑ "YouGov | YouGov poll performance in the 2014 Governor elections". YouGov: What the world thinks. Archived from the original on 2015-07-14. Retrieved 2015-07-16.
  23. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2017-01-31. Retrieved 2017-02-10.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  24. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2017-01-31. Retrieved 2017-02-10.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  25. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2017-01-31. Retrieved 2017-02-10.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  26. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2017-01-31. Retrieved 2017-02-10.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  27. ↑ PublicPolicyPolling [@ppppolls] (7 November 2016). "Post Labor Day we haven't done a single Ohio poll that had either candidate up by more than 1" (Tweet) – via Twitter.{{cite web}}: |author1= has generic name (help)
  28. ↑ PublicPolicyPolling [@ppppolls] (7 November 2016). "Think Hillary will win both but more confident about Florida" (Tweet) – via Twitter.{{cite web}}: |author1= has generic name (help)
  29. ↑ Bialik, Carl (November 6, 2008). "Polls Foresaw Future, Which Looks Tough for Polling". The Wall Street Journal . pp. A16. Archived from the original on June 11, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2012.
  30. ↑ Cohn, Nate (2013-09-12). "There's Something Wrong With America's Premier Liberal Pollster". New Republic. Archived from the original on 2016-03-05. Retrieved 2016-02-24.
  31. ↑ "PPP Polling Methodology: Opaque, Flawed | New Republic". The New Republic . Archived from the original on 2016-03-05. Retrieved 2016-02-24.
  32. 1 2 Silver, Nate (2016-06-02). "FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings". Archived from the original on 2016-07-17. Retrieved 2016-07-19.
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