Company type | Private |
---|---|
Industry | Opinion polling |
Founded | 2001 Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S. |
Founder | Dean Debnam |
Headquarters | 2912 Highwoods Boulevard, Suite 201 , Raleigh, North Carolina U.S. |
Area served | United States |
Key people | Dean Debnam (President, CEO) Tom Jensen (Director) |
Website | publicpolicypolling.com |
Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party. [1] [2] [3] Founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm is based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Debnam currently serves as president and CEO of PPP, while Tom Jensen serves as the firm's director. [4]
In addition to political issues, PPP has conducted polling on comical topics. These include surveys of whether Republican voters believe Barack Obama would be eligible to enter heaven in the event of the Rapture, [5] whether hipsters should be subjected to a special tax for being annoying, [6] and whether Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer. [7] [8]
PPP first entered prominence through its performance in the 2008 Democratic primaries between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The company performed well, producing accurate predictions in states ranging from South Carolina to Wisconsin, many of which featured inaccurate results by other pollsters. [9] [ non-primary source needed ] [10] After the November election, PPP was ranked by the Wall Street Journal as one of the two most accurate firms, among those who were most active in the presidential swing states. [2]
PPP was the first pollster to find Scott Brown with a lead over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election; Brown ultimately won in a major comeback, and PPP's final poll in that race predicted Brown's winning margin exactly. [11]
PPP was praised[ by whom? ] for its accuracy in polling primaries and special elections, which are notoriously hard to predict. The contests they accurately predicted include the West Virginia gubernatorial primaries, special elections in New York and California, [12] [13] as well as all eight Wisconsin recall elections.
A study by Fordham University found that, of 28 firms studied, PPP had the most accurate poll on the presidential national popular vote, both its independently conducted poll and the one it does in collaboration with the Daily Kos and the SEIU. [14] [15] PPP correctly called the winner of the presidential election in all 19 states it polled in the final week of the election, as well as the winners of all the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races it surveyed. [16] [17] [18] [19] [20]
Political research firm YouGov found PPP's gubernatorial polls to have the lowest average margin of error among national firms that polled in at least five gubernatorial races in the month preceding the election. [21]
In the 2016 Presidential Election, PPP's final polls widely missed the mark in several key swing states, including New Hampshire, [22] North Carolina, [23] Pennsylvania, [24] and Wisconsin. [25] Their polls also significantly underestimated President Trump's lead in Ohio, [26] and incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton to win Florida. [27]
The company's surveys use Interactive Voice Response (IVR), an automated questionnaire used by other polling firms such as SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports. [28] The journalist Nate Cohn has criticized the company's methodology as being "unscientific". [29]
In 2013 columnist Nate Cohn described PPP as a liberal pollster. [30] Statistician Nate Silver stated that PPP had a tendency to slightly lean Democratic by 1% as of January 2022. [31] As of January 2022, Silver's website, FiveThirtyEight, gave PPP a A− grade in its pollster ranking. [31]
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count.
YouGov plc is a British international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm headquartered in the UK with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.
Scott William Rasmussen is an American public opinion pollster and political analyst. He previously produced the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll, a gauge of American voters' political sentiment. He is editor-at-large for Ballotpedia, where he writes the Number of the Day Feature, and is a host for the podcast entitled "Just the Polls," a podcast series from Just the News.
Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.
The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.
538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. Founder Nate Silver left in April of 2023. On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages. The logo was replaced, with the name 538 now used instead of FiveThirtyEight.
Global Strategy Group, often known by its initials GSG or simply as Global, is an American public relations and research firm founded in New York City in 1995.
The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.
The 2010 Nebraska gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the governor of Nebraska, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. Republican incumbent Dave Heineman won, defeating Democrat Mike Meister in a landslide. Heineman easily won his party's nomination. Mark Lakers ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, but dropped out in July 2010. Attorney Mike Meister was chosen as a replacement. As of 2022, this was the last time Lancaster County voted for the Republican candidate. To date, this is the last time that the winner of the Nebraska gubernatorial election carried all counties in Nebraska.
Christopher Jarvis Daggett is an American businessman who is the president and CEO of the Geraldine R. Dodge Foundation, one of the largest foundations in New Jersey. A former regional administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, he ran as an independent candidate for Governor of New Jersey in 2009, garnering 5.8% of the vote.
The Quinnipiac University Poll is a public opinion polling center based at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Connecticut. It surveys public opinion in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, and nationally. The poll is unaffiliated with any academic department at the school and is run by Quinnipiac's public relations department.
The Monmouth University Polling Institute is a public opinion research institute located on the Monmouth University campus in West Long Branch, New Jersey. The Polling Institute was established in 2005, and since its establishment has been led by director Patrick Murray.
PSB Insights is a consultancy firm founded in 1997 by Mark Penn and Douglas Schoen.
Harper Polling is an American polling and media company.
Morning Consult is an American business intelligence company established in 2014. It was named one of the fastest growing technology companies in North America by Deloitte in both 2018 and 2019 and was valued at more than one billion dollars in June 2021. The company specializes in online survey research technology and has offices in Washington, D.C., New York City, Chicago, and San Francisco.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) is an opinion polling center at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts.
Mainstreet Research is a Canadian market research and polling firm with headquarters in Toronto, and offices in Montreal and Ottawa. The company was founded in 2010 by Quito Maggi, who currently serves as its president.
J. Ann Selzer is an American political pollster who is the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996. Her polls of Iowa voters have a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in major elections from 2008 through 2020. She has been described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.
The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. It first publicly released polls in 2016. Trafalgar has been questioned for its methodology and for an apparent bias towards the Republican Party.
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