2010 Colorado gubernatorial election

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2010 Colorado gubernatorial election
Flag of Colorado.svg
←  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  →
  HickenlooperCropped.JPG Tom Tancredo, official Congressional photo cropped.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee John Hickenlooper Tom Tancredo Dan Maes
Party Democratic Constitution Republican
Running mate Joe Garcia Pat Miller Tambor Williams
Popular vote915,436652,376199,792
Percentage51.05%36.38%11.14%
2010 Colorado gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2010 Colorado gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
Hickenlooper:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Tancredo:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Maes:     30–40%
Governor before election

Bill Ritter
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Colorado, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. One-term incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010. [1] Dan Maes, backed by the Tea Party movement, won the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on former representative Tom Tancredo, running as the Constitution Party's nominee to "stop your campaign tonight." Denver mayor John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote. [2]

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Democratic primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Hickenlooper 303,245 100.00
Total votes303,245 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Pre-primary polling and developments

While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'" [14] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'" [15] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win." [16] Post-primary polling (see below), however, showed growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.

McInnis vs. Maes

Poll sourceDates administeredDan
Maes		Scott
McInnis
Public Policy Polling August 7–8, 201040%41%
Survey USA Archived 2012-06-14 at the Wayback Machine August 1, 201043%39%
Survey USA June 15–17, 201029%57%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Maes 50-60% 60-70% McInnis 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 2010 Colorado gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Maes
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  McInnis
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Dan Maes 197,629 50.66
Republican Scott McInnis192,47949.34
Total votes390,108 100.00

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Results

Libertarian primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Jaimes Brown 1,438 64.03
Libertarian Dan Sallis80835.98
Total votes2,246 100.00

American Constitution Party

Confirmed

General election

Tom Tancredo supporters Tancredo supporters (5056030500).jpg
Tom Tancredo supporters

Candidates

  • Running mate: Ken Wyble
  • Running mate: Heather McKibbin

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [20] Likely DOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [21] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [22] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Likely DOctober 28, 2010
CQ Politics [24] TossupOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDates administeredJohn
Hickenlooper (D)		Dan
Maes (R)		Tom
Tancredo (ACP)
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 201047%8%43%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 201049%5%42%
Public Policy Polling October 21–23, 201047%5%44%
Magellan Strategies October 22, 201044%9%43%
Rasmussen Reports October 15, 201042%12%38%
Rasmussen Reports October 3, 201043%16%35%
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 201047%13%33%
Survey USA September 28–30, 201046%15%34%
Fox News September 25, 201044%15%34%
CNN/Time September 17–21, 201047%21%29%
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 201046%21%25%
Rasmussen Reports August 29, 201036%24%14%
Ipsos/Reuters August 20–22, 201041%33%16%
45%45%––
Rasmussen Reports August 11, 201043%31%18%
Public Policy Polling August 7–8, 201048%23%22%
50%38%––
Rasmussen Reports August 2, 201042%27%24%
Survey USA [ permanent dead link ]July 27–29, 201046%24%24%
50%41%––
Rasmussen Reports July 15, 201046%43%––
Survey USA June 15–17, 201044%45%––
Rasmussen Reports June 14, 201041%41%––

Results

2010 Colorado gubernatorial election [25]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic John Hickenlooper 915,436 51.05% -5.93%
Constitution Tom Tancredo 652,37636.38%+35.76%
Republican Dan Maes199,79211.14%-29.02%
Libertarian Jaimes Brown13,3650.75%-0.75%
Independent Jason R. Clark8,6010.48%—
Independent Paul Noel Fiorino3,4920.19%—
Write-ins 860.00%—
Majority263,06014.67%-2.15%
Turnout 1,793,148
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Constitution

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Constitution

Aftermath

American Constitution Party gets major party status

A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.

Under state law, Tancredo's showing in the gubernatorial election elevated the American Constitution Party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change. [26] [27]

As the campaign wore on, the question was not whether Hickenlooper would win, but whether Maes would get at least 10% of the vote. Had he dropped below 10%, the Republican Party would have been legally defined as a minor party under Colorado law. Maes' campaign received no financial support from the Colorado GOP, RNC, nor the Republican Governor's Association. Ultimately, he finished with 11 percent of the vote, just 20,477 votes over the threshold, allowing the Colorado GOP to retain major party status. [28]

The Constitution Party did not field a candidate in the 2014 election, and thus lost its major party status.

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Fender, Jessica (January 6, 2010). "Ritter ends re-election bid". The Denver Post. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  2. ↑ Moore, John (November 3, 2010). "Hickenlooper wins easily". Denver Post.
  3. ↑ Bartels, Lynn (January 12, 2010). "Hickenlooper enters governor's race". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  4. ↑ Kraushaar, Josh (January 12, 2010). "Hickenlooper in – The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  5. ↑ Wilson, Reid (December 8, 2008). "Salazar, Ritter get set for reelection bids". The Hill . Retrieved January 3, 2009.
  6. ↑ Weisman, Jonathan (January 6, 2010). "Salazar Won't Run". Politico 44 (blog). Retrieved January 6, 2010.
  7. ↑ Bartels, Lynn (September 16, 2009). "Romanoff enters Dem race for U.S. Senate". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  8. 1 2 3 "2010 Abstract of Votes Cast" (PDF). Colorado Secretary of State. Retrieved January 6, 2018.
  9. ↑ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. ↑ Fender, Jessica (May 21, 2009). "McInnis begins 2010 challenge to Gov. Ritter". The Denver Post . Retrieved March 8, 2010.
  11. ↑ Crummy, Karen E. (January 26, 2009). "Suthers won't enter Senate, Gov. races". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  12. ↑ "First Read – CO-GOV: Penry steps aside fearing 527". Firstread.msnbc.msn.com. Archived from the original on November 12, 2009. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  13. ↑ "Tancredo, Owens Throw Support Behind McInnis". CBS4 Denver. November 23, 2009. Archived from the original on November 25, 2009. Retrieved January 6, 2010.
  14. ↑ "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 2010-07-17 1:37:13 AM MDT. Retrieved October 18, 2010.
  15. ↑ "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger", by David Caterese, politico.com, 7/26/10 12:01 PM EDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
  16. ↑ "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 27 July 2010 05:57:27 AM MDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
  17. ↑ "Candidates – Libertarian Party of Colorado". Lpcolorado.org. Archived from the original on July 25, 2010. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  18. ↑ "TRACER – Candidate Detail". Tracer.sos.colorado.gov. Retrieved July 26, 2010.
  19. ↑ Crummy, Karen E. (July 22, 2010). "Tancredo considering third-party or unaffiliated governor's run". The Denver Post. Retrieved July 22, 2010.
  20. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  21. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  22. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  23. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  24. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  25. ↑ Gessler, Scott (2010). 2010 Abstract of Votes Cast (PDF). Denver, Colorado: Colorado Secretary of State.
  26. ↑ Steven K. Paulson, "ACP Not Relishing Role As Colorado Major Party", Associated Press; May 8, 2011.
  27. ↑ Patricia Calhoun, "American Constitution Party faces major headaches as a major Colorado party", Westword Magazine; 3/6/2012.
  28. ↑ John Moore, "Hickenlooper wins easily," Denver Post, 3 November 2010, accessed 3 November 2010.
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