2010 Florida gubernatorial election

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2010 Florida gubernatorial election
Flag of Florida.svg
←  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  →
Turnout48.7%Increase2.svg1.9 [1]
  Rick Scott official portrait (cropped).jpg Alex Sink (cropped).png
Nominee Rick Scott Alex Sink
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jennifer Carroll Rod Smith
Popular vote2,619,3352,557,785
Percentage48.87%47.72%
2010 Florida gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2010 Florida gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
Fl 2010 gov ss.svg
Map (16).svg
2010 FL Gov.svg
Scott:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Sink:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
Governor before election

Charlie Crist
Independent

Elected Governor

Rick Scott
Republican

The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-Independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez. [2] This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.

Contents

Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country. [3] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an Independent).

The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement, [4] Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists, [3] [5] an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position. [6] This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since 1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrent United States Senate election.

Primary Elections

Democratic

Candidates

Alex Sink, the CFO of Florida, was mentioned as a possible candidate to run for Senate or Governor in 2010, [7] [8] but initially declined. When Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, Sink immediately announced her campaign for governor. Sink was the wife of Bill McBride, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2002.

Sink faced only token opposition in the primary. Her lone opponent was former Socialist Party presidential nominee Brian Moore. [9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.

County results Florida Governor D Primary 2010.svg
County results
Democratic primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Alex Sink663,80276.9%
Democratic Brian Moore199,89623.1%
Total votes863,698 100.0%

Republican

In May 2009, Republican incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate. [11] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite. McCollum had previously lost the election for Senate in 2000, and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in 2004. This would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign.

Just before the deadline, Rick Scott jumped into the primary fight. Scott started dumping millions of his own personal fortune into the race. [12] The race quickly became one of the most expensive and "nasty" primary campaigns in recent Florida history. [13] Scott and McCollum lashed out with very negative attacks against each other. Scott ran as a political "outsider", and led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in the absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.

County results Florida Governor R Primary 2010.svg
County results
Republican primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Scott595,47446.4%
Republican Bill McCollum557,42743.4%
Republican Mike McCalister130,05610.1%
Total votes1,282,957 100.0%

General Election

Candidates

Republican

Democratic

  • Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida

Independence Party of Florida

  • Peter L. Allen, electrical inspector

No party affiliation

  • Michael E. Arth  [ de; es; fr; ja; zh ], policy analyst and urban designer who entered the race as a Democrat in June 2009 and later switched to no party affiliation in June 2010
  • Farid Khavari, economist, author, and small business owner
  • Daniel Imperato [14]
  • Calvin Clarence "C.C." Reed

The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million. [15] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida. [16] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race. [17] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal. [3]

One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators. [18] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [19] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [20] TossupOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [21] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [22] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics [23] TossupOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Democratic primary

List of Democratic primary polling numbers
Poll sourceDates administeredAlex SinkMichael E. Arth
Mason Dixon June 24–26, 200949%4%

Republican primary

List of Republican primary polling numbers
Poll sourceDates administeredBill McCollumRick ScottPaula Dockery
Quinnipiac August 21–22, 201039%35%–
Public Policy Polling August 21–22, 201040%47%–
Mason-Dixon August 17–19, 201045%36%–
Quinnipiac August 11–16, 201044%35%–
Sunshine State News August 12–15, 201042%44%–
Mason Dixon August 9–11, 201034%30%–
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers [ dead link ]August 6–10, 201032%42%–
Mason Dixon August 2–4, 201031%37%–
The Florida Poll Archived August 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine July 24–28, 201025%41%–
Quinnipiac July 22–27, 201032%43%–
Public Policy Polling July 16–18, 201029%43%–
Florida Chamber of Commerce June 9–13, 201030%35%–
Quinnipiac June 2–8, 201031%44%–
Mason-Dixon May 3–5, 201038%24%7%
Research 2000 November 16–18, 200945%–9%
Strategic Vision May 29–31, 200944%–28%

General election

Polling for the 2010 Florida Gubernatorial Election 2010 Florida Polling.png
Polling for the 2010 Florida Gubernatorial Election
Poll sourceDates administeredBud Chiles (I)Rick Scott (R)Alex Sink (D)
Mason-Dixon May 3–5, 2010—36%38%
Rasmussen Reports May 16, 2010—41%40%
Rasmussen Reports June 7, 2010—45%40%
Quinnipiac June 7, 201013%35%26%
Florida Chamber of Commerce June 9–13, 201015%31%26%
Ipsos/Reuters July 9–11, 201012%34%31%
Public Policy Polling July 16–18, 201013%30%36%
Quinnipiac July 22–27, 201014%29%27%
The Florida Poll Archived August 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine July 24–28, 201011%30%28%
Rasmussen Reports August 2, 201016%35%31%
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers [ dead link ]August 6–10, 201014%30%29%
Mason-Dixon August 9–11, 201017%24%40%
Quinnipiac August 11–16, 201012%29%33%
Public Policy Polling August 21–22, 20108%34%41%
Rasmussen Reports August 25, 20104%45%42%
Rasmussen Reports September 1, 2010—45%44%
Sunshine State News September 1–7, 201042%44%
CNN Archived September 9, 2010, at the Wayback Machine September 2–7, 201042%49%
FOX News September 11, 201041%49%
Reuters/Ipsos September 12, 201045%47%
Mason-Dixon September 20–22, 201040%47%
Rasmussen Reports September 22, 201050%44%
Quinnipiac September 23–28, 201049%43%
CNN Archived September 30, 2010, at the Wayback Machine September 24–28, 201047%45%
Sunshine State News September 26 – October 3, 201044%42%
TCPalm.com / Zogby September 27–29, 201039%41%
Florida Chamber of Commerce September 27–30, 201046%42%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 201046%41%
Mason-Dixon October 4–6, 201040%44%
Miami-Dade College [ permanent dead link ]October 5, 201052%46%
Quinnipiac October 6–8, 201045%44%
Rasmussen Reports October 7, 201050%47%
PPP October 9–10, 201041%46%
Susquehanna October 12–13, 201045%48%
Suffolk Archived October 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine October 14–17, 201038%45%
CNN Opinion Research October 15–19, 201049%46%
Ipsos/ St. Pete Times October 15–19, 201044%41%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 201050%44%
Naples Daily News / Zogby October 18–21, 201039%43%
Quinnipiac October 18–24, 201041%45%
Susquehanna October 20, 201045%45%
Susquehanna/ Sunshine State News October 24–25, 201047%45%
Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic Archived November 3, 2010, at the Wayback Machine October 23–27, 201044%39%
Quinnipiac October 25–31, 201043%44%
Mason-Dixon October 26–27, 201043%46%
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 201048%45%
Susquehanna/ Sunshine State October 29–31, 201046%49%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 201047%48%

Hypothetical Polls

Bill McCollum (R) vs. Alex Sink (D) vs. Bud Chiles (I)
Poll sourceDates administeredBill McCollumAlex SinkBud Chiles
Quinnipiac August 11–16, 201029%31%12%
Mason-Dixon August 9–11, 201035%37%13%
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers [ dead link ]August 6–10, 201026%30%12%
Rasmussen Reports August 2, 201027%31%20%
The Florida Poll Archived August 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine July 24–28, 201026%27%12%
Quinnipiac July 22–27, 201027%26%14%
Public Policy Polling July 16–18, 201023%37%14%
Ipsos/Reuters July 9–11, 201030%31%12%
Florida Chamber of Commerce June 9–13, 201030%26%15%
Quinnipiac June 7, 201033%25%19%
Rasmussen Reports June 7, 201040%38%—
Rasmussen Reports May 16, 201043%35%—
Mason-Dixon May 7, 201045%36%—
Rasmussen Reports March 18, 201047%36%—
Public Policy Polling March 5–8, 201044%31%—
Rasmussen Reports February 18, 201048%35%—
Fabrizo/McLaughlin January 31, 201041%32%—
Rasmussen Reports January 27, 201046%35%—
Quinnipiac January 27, 201041%31%<1%
Rasmussen Reports December 14, 200944%39%—
Research 2000 November 16–18, 200935%33%—
St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 October 25–28, 200937%38%—
Rasmussen Reports October 20, 200946%35%—
Quinnipiac August 19, 200938%34%1%
Public Opinion Strategies August 4–5, 200948%37%—
Rasmussen Reports June 22, 200942%34%—
Quinnipiac June 2–7, 200934%38%1%
Mason Dixon May 14–18, 200940%34%—
Mason Dixon March 30 – April 1, 200936%35%—

Results

The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote. [3] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount. [3] Sink conceded the day after the election.

Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote. [3]

2010 Florida gubernatorial election [24]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Rick Scott 2,619,335 48.87% −3.31%
Democratic Alex Sink 2,557,78547.72%+2.62%
Independence Peter Allen123,8312.31%
Independent C. C. Reed18,8420.35%
Independent Michael E. Arth18,6440.35%
Independent Daniel Imperato13,6900.26%
Independent Farid Khavari7,4870.14%
Write-ins1210.00%
Plurality61,5501.15%-5.92%
Turnout 5,359,735
Republican gain from Independent Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

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    References

    1. ↑ "November 2, 2010 General Election". Florida Department of State. Retrieved May 15, 2022.
    2. ↑ Martinez resigned his seat in December 2008, and Crist appointed Republican George LeMieux to serve the remainder of Martinez's term. LeMieux declined to run for election, and Crist was one of three major candidates in the election for U.S. Senate.
    3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Money, message, mad electorate make Scott Fla. gov". The Washington Post. November 3, 2010. Retrieved October 21, 2014.
    4. ↑ Derby, Kevin (September 2, 2010). "TEA Party Backs Rick Scott for Governor in November". Sunshine State News. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    5. ↑ Dockery, Paula (June 5, 2014). "Paula Dockery: Tea party stands by Rick Scott". Florida Today. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    6. ↑ "Exit Polls – Florida 2010 Governor". CNN. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    7. ↑ "Florida Democrats revel in gained ground". Tampa Bay Times. August 25, 2008. Archived from the original on October 13, 2012. Retrieved August 29, 2010.
    8. ↑ Cotterell, Bill (January 16, 2009). "Alex Sink won't run for U.S. Senate in 2010". Tallahassee Democrat.
    9. ↑ Kam, Dara (July 24, 2010). "Low-profile Alex Sink faces even more obscure opponent in Democratic race for Florida governor". Palm Beach Post. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    10. 1 2 "Florida Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
    11. ↑ "Florida governor announces run for Senate". CNN. May 12, 2009. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    12. ↑ Deslatte, Aaron (July 30, 2010). "Ruling lets Rick Scott spend all he wants in governor's race vs. Bill McCollum". The Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    13. ↑ Deslatte, Aaron (August 25, 2010). "Rick Scott beats Bill McCollum to end nasty GOP governor's primary fight". The Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    14. ↑ "Florida Election Candidate Tracking System entry for Imperato". Archived from the original on July 29, 2010. Retrieved June 23, 2010.
    15. ↑ "Governor's Race: Rick, Scott, Alex Sink save harshest word for last debate". Orlando Sentinel,
    16. ↑ Baribeau, Simone. "Florida Republican Scott Elected Governor After Record Spending". Bloomberg. Retrieved December 9, 2011.
    17. ↑ Madison, Lucy (April 14, 2011). "Rick Scott Wins Tight Florida Governor Race". CBS News. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    18. ↑ "Aide fired over Florida debate foul". CNN. October 26, 2010. Retrieved October 17, 2014.
    19. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
    20. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
    21. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
    22. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
    23. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
    24. ↑ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". doe.dos.state.fl.us. Archived from the original on October 3, 2011.
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