2004 United States presidential election in Florida

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2004 United States presidential election in Florida
Flag of Florida.svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
TurnoutIncrease2.svg74% [1]
  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote270
Popular vote3,964,5223,583,544
Percentage52.10%47.09%

Florida Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
2004 Presidential Election in Florida by Congressional District.svg

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 27 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

Florida was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 5.01% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a tossup, or swing state, but was eventually described as leaning towards Bush near the end of the campaign. Once again, Florida was under the national spotlight due to its high number of electoral votes and recent memory of the controversy surrounding the 2000 Florida vote. Turnout was much higher, going from an estimated 6 million voters in 2000 to over 7.5 million voters showing up to vote in 2004. [2]

Bush's more comfortable victory in Florida this time around was attributed to the popularity of his brother, Jeb, who the state's governor and had approval ratings greater than 60%. [3] Kerry became the first Democrat since Michael Dukakis in the 1988 election to not flip a single county in the state, although he did improve on Al Gore's margins in Gadsden County and Jefferson County. This was the last time a Republican won a majority of the state's popular vote until 2020.

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [4]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLean R
Associated PressToss-up
CNNLikely R
Cook Political ReportToss-up
NewsweekToss-up
New York TimesToss-up
Rasmussen ReportsToss-up
Research 2000Toss-up
Washington PostToss-up
Washington TimesToss-up
Zogby InternationalToss-up
Washington DispatchLikely R

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Kerry (D)
George W.
Bush (R)
Ralph
Nader (I)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [5] October 27–31, 20041,098± 3.343%51%1%0%4%
Quinnipiac [6] October 22–26, 2004944± 3.246%49%1%0%4%
Quinnipiac [7] October 15–19, 2004808± 3.547%48%1%0%4%
Quinnipiac [8] October 1–5, 2004717± 3.744%51%0%0%5%
Quinnipiac [9] September 18–21, 2004819± 3.441%49%5%0%5%
Quinnipiac [10] August 5–10, 20041,094± 3.047%41%4%0%7%
Quinnipiac [11] June 23–27, 20041,209± 2.843%43%5%1%9%

Throughout the general election, candidates exchanged narrow leads in the state. The final 3 poll averaged showed Bush leading with 49% to Kerry's 47%. [12]

Fundraising

Bush raised $16,956,510. [13] Kerry raised $7,285,151. [14]

Advertising and visits

This state was heavily targeted as a swing state. Over the course of the election, Bush visited the state 15 times to Kerry's 18 times. Also, both candidates spent heavily on television advertisements, spending an estimated $3 million each week. [15]

Analysis

During the 2004 U.S. presidential election, numerous allegations of irregularities were made concerning the voting process in Florida. These allegations included missing and uncounted votes, machine malfunction, and a lack of correlation between the vote count and exit polling.

In the prior election, Ralph Nader obtained over 2% of the vote, thus Bush won with less than 50% of the vote, making his approval rating and his brother's approval ratings the deciding factor of the state. Polls throughout the campaign indicated that Florida was too close to call, prompting concerns about a repeat of the 2000 fiasco. However, the high popularity of George W. Bush's brother, Republican Governor Jeb Bush, contributed to a relatively comfortable victory for Bush, by a margin of 5% over his Democratic rival, John Kerry. Despite this, Florida remained the most Democratic of the 11 states of the former Confederacy, and Kerry's 5% loss in Florida was the closest he came to carrying any Confederate state.

While the South Florida metropolitan area mostly voted for Kerry, the other parts of the state mainly supported Bush, being culturally closer to the rest of the southern United States than to Miami, home to large Hispanic and Jewish populations, as well as retirees and transplants from the largely liberal Northeastern United States.

Key to Bush's victory was increased turnout in Republican areas. Bush's margin of victory in several counties topped 70%, particularly in the Florida Panhandle. Bush also won a significant number of heavily populated and fast-growing areas including Jacksonville, the entire Tampa Bay area, Southwest Florida, Orlando, the Space Coast, and Ocala.

Osceola and Hillsborough counties would not vote Republican again until 2024.

As of the 2024 presidential election , this is the last time that the city of Orlando has voted Republican in a presidential election.

Results

United States presidential election in Florida, 2004
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) Dick Cheney (incumbent)3,964,52252.10%27
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 3,583,54447.09%0
Reform Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 32,9710.43%0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,9960.16%0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 6,6260.09%0
Green David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 3,9170.05%0
Socialist Walter Brown Mary Alice Herbert 3,5020.05%0
Socialist Workers James Harris Margaret Trowe 2,7320.04%0
Totals7,609,810100.00%27
Voter turnout (Voting Age)74.0%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Alachua 47,76242.90%62,50456.14%1,0620.95%-14,742-13.24%111,328
Baker 7,73877.73%2,18021.90%370.37%5,55855.83%9,955
Bay 53,40471.18%21,06828.08%5520.74%32,33643.10%75,024
Bradford 7,55769.62%3,24429.88%540.50%4,31339.74%10,855
Brevard 153,06857.66%110,30941.55%2,0850.79%42,75916.11%265,462
Broward 244,67434.61%453,87364.21%8,3251.18%-209,199-29.60%706,872
Calhoun 3,78263.42%2,11635.49%651.09%1,66627.93%5,963
Charlotte 44,42855.68%34,25642.93%1,1021.38%10,17212.75%79,786
Citrus 39,50056.86%29,27742.15%6900.99%10,22314.71%69,467
Clay 62,07876.17%18,97123.28%4460.55%43,10752.89%81,495
Collier 83,63164.99%43,89234.11%1,1600.90%39,73930.88%128,683
Columbia 16,75867.06%8,03132.14%2020.81%8,72734.92%24,991
DeSoto 5,52458.09%3,91341.15%730.77%1,61116.94%9,510
Dixie 4,43468.83%1,96030.43%480.75%2,47438.40%6,442
Duval 220,19057.78%158,61041.62%2,2610.59%61,58016.16%381,061
Escambia 93,56665.30%48,32933.73%1,3830.97%45,23731.57%143,278
Flagler 19,63351.02%18,57848.28%2690.70%1,0552.74%38,480
Franklin 3,47258.54%2,40140.48%580.98%1,07118.06%5,931
Gadsden 6,25329.80%14,62969.72%1020.49%-8,376-39.92%20,984
Gilchrist 4,93670.36%2,01728.75%620.88%2,91941.61%7,015
Glades 2,44358.33%1,71841.02%270.64%72517.31%4,188
Gulf 4,80566.03%2,40733.08%650.89%2,39832.95%7,277
Hamilton 2,79254.97%2,26044.50%270.53%53210.47%5,079
Hardee 5,04969.65%2,14929.65%510.70%2,90040.00%7,249
Hendry 5,75758.90%3,96040.51%580.59%1,79718.39%9,775
Hernando 42,63552.93%37,18746.17%7250.90%5,4486.76%80,547
Highlands 25,87862.36%15,34736.98%2710.65%10,53125.38%41,496
Hillsborough 245,57653.01%214,13246.23%3,5140.76%31,4446.78%463,222
Holmes 6,41277.25%1,81021.81%780.94%4,60255.44%8,300
Indian River 36,93860.15%23,95639.01%5200.85%12,98221.14%61,414
Jackson 12,12261.20%7,55538.14%1300.66%4,56723.06%19,807
Jefferson 3,29844.10%4,13555.30%450.60%-837-11.20%7,478
Lafayette 2,46073.98%84525.41%200.60%1,61548.57%3,325
Lake 74,38960.02%48,22138.90%1,3401.08%26,16821.12%123,950
Lee 144,17659.91%93,86039.00%2,6311.09%50,31620.91%240,667
Leon 51,61537.85%83,87361.50%8910.65%-32,258-23.65%136,379
Levy 10,41062.52%6,07436.48%1681.01%4,33626.04%16,652
Liberty 1,92763.79%1,07035.42%240.79%85728.37%3,021
Madison 4,19150.47%4,05048.77%630.76%1411.70%8,304
Manatee 81,31856.62%61,26242.66%1,0410.72%20,05613.96%143,621
Marion 81,28358.19%57,27141.00%1,1230.80%24,01217.19%139,677
Martin 41,36257.09%30,20841.69%8831.22%11,15415.40%72,453
Miami-Dade 361,09546.61%409,73252.89%3,8990.50%-48,637-6.28%774,726
Monroe 19,46749.24%19,65449.71%4141.05%-187-0.47%39,535
Nassau 23,78372.64%8,57326.18%3871.18%15,21046.46%32,743
Okaloosa 69,69377.65%19,36821.58%6950.77%50,32556.07%89,756
Okeechobee 6,97857.24%5,15342.27%590.48%1,82514.97%12,190
Orange 192,53949.62%193,35449.83%2,1510.55%-815-0.21%388,044
Osceola 43,11752.45%38,63347.00%4540.55%4,4845.45%82,204
Palm Beach 212,68839.05%328,68760.35%3,2470.60%-115,999-21.30%544,622
Pasco 103,23054.07%84,74944.39%2,9371.54%18,4819.68%190,916
Pinellas 225,68649.56%225,46049.51%4,2110.92%2260.05%455,357
Polk 123,55958.61%86,00940.80%1,2620.60%37,55017.81%210,830
Putnam 18,31159.12%12,41240.07%2500.81%5,89919.05%30,973
St. Johns 59,19668.60%26,39930.59%6950.81%32,79738.01%86,290
St. Lucie 47,59247.56%51,83551.80%6360.64%-4,243-4.24%100,063
Santa Rosa 52,05977.35%14,65921.78%5890.88%37,40055.57%67,307
Sarasota 104,69253.51%88,44245.20%2,5181.29%16,2508.31%195,652
Seminole 108,17258.10%76,97141.34%1,0520.56%31,20116.76%186,195
Sumter 19,80062.18%11,58436.38%4581.44%8,21625.80%31,842
Suwannee 11,15370.58%4,52228.62%1270.80%6,63141.96%15,802
Taylor 5,46763.71%3,04935.53%650.76%2,41828.18%8,581
Union 3,39672.64%1,25126.76%280.60%2,14545.88%4,675
Volusia 111,92448.89%115,51950.46%1,4960.65%-3,595-1.57%228,939
Wakulla 6,77757.61%4,89641.62%900.77%1,88115.99%11,763
Walton 17,55573.22%6,21325.91%2080.87%11,34247.31%23,976
Washington 7,36971.09%2,91228.09%850.82%4,45743.00%10,366
Totals3,964,52252.10%3,583,54447.09%61,7440.81%380,9785.01%7,609,810
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic Florida County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

By congressional district

Bush won 18 of 25 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party. [16]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st 72%28% Jeff Miller
2nd 54%46% Allen Boyd
3rd 35%65% Corrine Brown
4th 69%31% Ander Crenshaw
5th 58%41% Ginny Brown-Waite
6th 61%39% Cliff Stearns
7th 57%43% John Mica
8th 55%44% Ric Keller
9th 57%43% Michael Bilirakis
10th 51%49% Bill Young
11th 41%58% Jim Davis
12th 58%42% Adam Putnam
13th 56%44% Katherine Harris
14th 62%38% Connie Mack IV
15th 57%43% Dave Weldon
16th 54%46% Mark Foley
17th 17%83% Kendrick Meek
18th 54%46% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
19th 34%66% Peter Deutsch
20th 36%64% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
21st 57%43% Lincoln Diaz-Balart
22nd 48%52% E. Clay Shaw Jr.
23rd 24%76% Alcee Hastings
24th 55%45% Tom Feeney
25th 56%44% Mario Diaz-Balart

Electors

Technically the voters of Florida cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Florida is allocated 27 electors because it has 25 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 27 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 27 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Florida. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. [17]

  1. Al Austin
  2. Allan Bense
  3. Sally Bradshaw
  4. Al Cardenas
  5. Jennifer Carroll
  6. Armando Codina
  7. Sharon Day
  8. Maria de la Milera
  9. Jim Dozier
  10. David Griffin
  11. Fran Hancock
  12. Cynthia Handley
  13. William Harrison
  14. Al Hoffman
  15. Bill Jordan
  16. Tom Lee
  17. Randall McElheney
  18. Jeanne McIntosh
  19. Nancy Mihm
  20. Gary Morse
  21. Marilyn Paul
  22. Tom Petway
  23. Sergio Pino
  24. John Thrasher
  25. Janet Westling
  26. Robert Woody
  27. Zach Zachariah

References

  1. "Voter Turnout". Florida Division of Elections. 2021. Archived from the original on June 2, 2015.
  2. Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org.
  3. O'Brien, Mark (December 14, 2004). There's a limit to the value of term limits on political offices. Pensacola News Journal. Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  4. "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  5. Quinnipiac
  6. Quinnipiac
  7. Quinnipiac
  8. Quinnipiac
  9. Quinnipiac
  10. Quinnipiac
  11. Quinnipiac
  12. 2004 Presidential Election Polls. Florida Polls US Election Atlas
  13. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  14. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  15. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  16. DavidNYC (December 15, 2008). "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
  17. "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". www.archives.gov. May 20, 2019.