2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey

←  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  →

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 15 0 Popular vote 1,911,430 1,670,003 Percentage 52.92% 46.24%

County Results Municipality Results Kerry   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Bush   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   90–100%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New Jersey was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 6.68% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a state Kerry would win, or a blue state. Due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks, however, and Governor James McGreevey's resignation following threats of a sexual harassment lawsuit, the state was considered a potentially closer than usual race. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state. In the end, Kerry carried New Jersey by a somewhat comfortable margin, albeit narrower than usual for most other 21st-century Democrats.

This is the first time since 1880 in which the Republican nominee won the popular vote without New Jersey, and the first time it voted for the popular vote loser since 1976. To date, this is the last election in which the Republican candidate won Somerset County. This was the last time a Democrat won New Jersey by a single digit margin of victory until 2024.

Primaries

• 2004 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. ^[1]

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Lean D
Cook Political Report	Likely D
Research 2000	Solid D
Zogby International	Likely D
Washington Post	Likely D
Washington Dispatch	Likely D
Washington Times	Solid D
The New York Times	Lean D
CNN	Likely D
Newsweek	Lean D
Associated Press	Solid D
Rasmussen Reports	Likely D

Polling

Kerry won most preelection polls taken in this state albeit by small margins. The final 3 polling average showed the Democratic leading 49% to 42%. ^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,934,011. ^[3] Kerry raised $6,513,274. ^[4]

Advertising and visits

President George W. Bush visited Marlton, New Jersey, in Burlington County for a rally on October 18, 2004. ^[5]

Analysis

Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. However, Bush made inroads in Bergen County, where many wealthy residents reside, and in other South Jersey counties. Bush controlled largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris are also among the 10 wealthiest counties in America) and Salem County. Monmouth County's wealthy population and Ocean and Cape May Counties' older population also contributed to Bush's relative success in this largely Democratic state.

This would also be the first election in which a Northern Democrat carried New Jersey since 1960 when fellow Massachusetts Democrat John F. Kennedy did so. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though New Jersey is a northern state. This is the only time a president was elected twice without ever carrying any of the state's electoral votes either time, and only the second occasion (after 1864) that any president won two terms without ever carrying the state's popular vote either time.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey [6] [7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	1,911,430	52.92%	15
	Republican	George W. Bush (Inc.)	1,670,003	46.24%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	19,418	0.54%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	4,514	0.12%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	2,750	0.08%	0
	Green	David Cobb	1,807	0.05%	0
	Socialist	Walt Brown	664	0.02%	0
	Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	575	0.02%	0
	Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	530	0.01%	0
Totals			3,611,691	100.00%	15
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)					56%/72%

By county

Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Kerry
-Red municipalities won by Bush

County	John Kerry Democratic		George W. Bush Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Atlantic	55,746	52.54%	49,487	46.64%	864	0.81%	6,259	5.90%	106,097
Bergen	207,666	51.88%	189,833	47.43%	2,745	0.69%	17,833	4.45%	400,244
Burlington	110,411	53.09%	95,936	46.13%	1,609	0.77%	14,475	6.96%	207,956
Camden	137,765	62.36%	81,427	36.86%	1,741	0.79%	56,338	25.50%	220,933
Cape May	21,475	42.31%	28,832	56.80%	455	0.90%	−7,357	−14.49%	50,762
Cumberland	27,875	52.41%	24,362	45.81%	948	1.78%	3,513	6.60%	53,185
Essex	203,681	70.39%	83,374	28.81%	2,293	0.79%	120,307	41.58%	289,348
Gloucester	66,835	52.23%	60,033	46.91%	1,096	0.86%	6,802	5.32%	127,964
Hudson	127,447	67.24%	60,646	31.99%	1,461	0.77%	66,801	35.25%	189,554
Hunterdon	26,050	39.07%	39,888	59.82%	742	1.11%	−13,838	−20.75%	66,680
Mercer	91,580	61.25%	56,604	37.86%	1,326	0.89%	34,976	23.39%	149,510
Middlesex	166,628	56.33%	126,492	42.76%	2,685	0.91%	40,136	13.57%	295,805
Monmouth	133,773	44.60%	163,650	54.56%	2,516	0.84%	−29,877	−9.96%	299,939
Morris	98,066	41.70%	135,241	57.51%	1,847	0.79%	−37,175	−15.81%	235,154
Ocean	99,839	38.93%	154,204	60.13%	2,424	0.95%	−54,365	−21.20%	256,467
Passaic	94,962	55.43%	75,200	43.90%	1,149	0.67%	19,762	11.53%	171,311
Salem	13,749	46.17%	15,721	52.79%	311	1.04%	−1,972	−6.62%	29,781
Somerset	66,476	47.39%	72,508	51.69%	1,295	0.92%	−6,032	−4.30%	140,279
Sussex	23,990	34.54%	44,506	64.08%	962	1.38%	−20,516	−29.54%	69,458
Union	119,372	58.66%	82,517	40.55%	1,613	0.79%	36,855	18.11%	203,502
Warren	18,044	37.43%	29,542	61.28%	622	1.29%	−11,498	−23.85%	48,208
Totals	1,911,430	52.92%	1,670,003	46.23%	30,704	0.85%	241,427	6.69%	3,612,137

County Flips:

Democratic   Hold

Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Salem (largest municipality: Pennsville Township)
• Monmouth (largest municipality: Middletown Township)

By congressional district

Kerry won 7 of 13 congressional districts. ^[8]

District	Kerry	Bush	Representative
1st	61%	39%	Rob Andrews
2nd	49%	50%	Frank LoBiondo
3rd	49%	51%	Jim Saxton
4th	44%	56%	Chris Smith
5th	43%	57%	Scott Garrett
6th	57%	43%	Frank Pallone Jr.
7th	47%	53%	Mike Ferguson
8th	59%	41%	Bill Pascrell
9th	59%	41%	Steve Rothman
10th	82%	18%	Donald Payne
11th	42%	58%	Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th	54%	46%	Rush Holt Jr.
13th	69%	31%	Bob Menendez

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of NJ cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NJ is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards. ^[9]

1. Warren Wallace
2. Wilfredo Caraballo
3. Tom Canzanella
4. Carolyn Walch
5. Peggy Anastos
6. Bernard Kenny
7. Ronald Rice
8. Abed Awad
9. Jack McGreevey – (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)
10. Wendy Benchle
11. Loni Kaplan
12. Carolyn Wade
13. Riletta L. Cream
14. Bernadette McPherson
15. Upendra Chivukula

See also

• United States presidential elections in New Jersey
• Presidency of George W. Bush

References

1. "D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings". D.C.'s Political Report. October 29, 2004. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
2. "Election poll data". uselectionatlas.org. 2004.
3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". campaignmoney.com.
4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". campaignmoney.com.
5. "George W Bush Campaign Rally - Marlton, NJ - Oct 18, 2004". Archived from the original on December 12, 2021. Retrieved December 19, 2020– via YouTube.
6. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - New Jersey 2004".
7. "Official General Election Candidates List" (PDF).
8. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
9. "U. S. Electoral College 2004 Certificate". archives.gov. May 20, 2019.

External links

• Official Results (New Jersey Division of Elections)
• Official Results by municipality