2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Flag of New Jersey.svg
←  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  →
Turnout72.63% [1] (Increase2.svg 2.55%)
  John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote150
Popular vote1,911,4301,670,003
Percentage52.92%46.24%
New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey by congressional district.svg
New Jersey Presidential Results 2004 by Municipality.svg
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Democratic nominee John Kerry defeated Republican incumbent President George W. Bush by a 6.68% margin of victory in New Jersey. However, Bush was re-elected to the presidency.

Contents

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered New Jersey a blue state that Kerry would win. Due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and Democratic Governor Jim McGreevey's resignation following threats of a sexual harassment lawsuit, political observers believed that the presidential contest in New Jersey would be closer than usual. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign, and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state.[ citation needed ]

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. The table below shows their final predictions before Election Day. [2]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLean D
Cook Political ReportLikely D
Research 2000Solid D
Zogby InternationalLikely D
Washington PostLikely D
Washington DispatchLikely D
Washington TimesSolid D
The New York TimesLean D
CNNLikely D
NewsweekLean D
Associated PressSolid D
Rasmussen ReportsLikely D

Polling

Kerry led by small margins in most pre-election polls taken in New Jersey. A final three-poll rolling average showed Kerry leading Bush, 49% to 42%. [3]

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George W.
Bush (R)		John
Kerry (D)		Ralph
Nader (I)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [4] June 11–16, 2003815 RV±3.4%53%37%–1%9%
Quinnipiac [5] September 18–22, 2003968 RV±3.2%48%43%–9%
Quinnipiac [6] November 6–10, 20031,027 RV±3.1%46%45%–1%7%
Quinnipiac [7] May 10–16, 20041,122 RV±2.9%44%47%–1%7%
43%46%5%1%6%
Quinnipiac [8] June 15–20, 20041,167 RV±2.9%41%49%–2%7%
40%46%7%0%7%
Quinnipiac [9] July 30–August 2, 2004996 RV±3.1%38%52%–2%8%
36%49%6%1%8%
Quinnipiac [10] August 19–23, 2004887 RV±3.3%39%51%–1%8%
39%49%4%1%8%
Quinnipiac [11] September 16–19, 2004672 LV±3.8%48%48%2%0%2%
48%49%–1%2%
943 RV±3.2%43%47%3%1%6%
Quinnipiac [12] October 1–4, 2004819 LV±3.4%46%49%2%1%3%
46%49%–1%4%
Quinnipiac [13] October 14–17, 2004786 LV±2.9%45%49%1%0%4%
45%50%–0%5%
1,123 RV±2.9%39%46%2%0%12%
Quinnipiac [14] October 21–25, 2004852 LV±3.4%46%46%2%1%6%
1,179 RV±2.9%41%45%2%1%12%
Quinnipiac [15] October 27–31, 2004984 LV±3.1%43%48%2%1%6%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George W.
Bush (R)		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [16] December 3–9, 2002934 RV±3.2%43%45%2%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George W.
Bush (R)		Wesley
Clark (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [5] September 18–22, 2003968 RV±3.2%47%42%11%
Quinnipiac [6] November 6–10, 20031,027 RV±3.1%47%45%1%8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George W.
Bush (R)		Hillary
Clinton (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [4] June 11–16, 2003815 RV±3.4%54%38%2%7%
Quinnipiac [5] September 18–22, 2003968 RV±3.2%47%45%8%
Quinnipiac [6] November 6–10, 20031,027 RV±3.1%46%45%1%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George W.
Bush (R)		Howard
Dean (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [5] September 18–22, 2003968 RV±3.2%50%40%10%
Quinnipiac [6] November 6–10, 20031,027 RV±3.1%48%45%1%6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George W.
Bush (R)		Dick
Gephardt (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [5] September 18–22, 2003968 RV±3.2%48%44%8%
Quinnipiac [6] November 6–10, 20031,027 RV±3.1%48%45%1%6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George W.
Bush (R)		Al
Gore (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [16] December 3–9, 2002934 RV±3.2%48%45%2%5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George W.
Bush (R)		Joe
Lieberman (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [4] June 11–16, 2003815 RV±3.4%53%39%1%7%
Quinnipiac [5] September 18–22, 2003968 RV±3.2%49%44%7%
Quinnipiac [6] November 6–10, 20031,027 RV±3.1%46%47%1%5%

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,934,011 from New Jersey donors, [17] while Kerry raised $6,513,274. [18]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey [19] [20]
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 1,911,43052.92%15
Republican George W. Bush (Inc.)1,670,00346.24%0
Independent Ralph Nader 19,4180.54%0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 4,5140.12%0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 2,7500.08%0
Green David Cobb 1,8070.05%0
Socialist Walt Brown 6640.02%0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 5750.02%0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 5300.01%0
Totals3,611,691100.00%15
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)56%/72%

By county

CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic		George W. Bush
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Atlantic 55,74652.54%49,48746.64%8640.81%6,2595.90%106,097
Bergen 207,66651.88%189,83347.43%2,7450.69%17,8334.45%400,244
Burlington 110,41153.09%95,93646.13%1,6090.77%14,4756.96%207,956
Camden 137,76562.36%81,42736.86%1,7410.79%56,33825.50%220,933
Cape May 21,47542.31%28,83256.80%4550.90%−7,357−14.49%50,762
Cumberland 27,87552.41%24,36245.81%9481.78%3,5136.60%53,185
Essex 203,68170.39%83,37428.81%2,2930.79%120,30741.58%289,348
Gloucester 66,83552.23%60,03346.91%1,0960.86%6,8025.32%127,964
Hudson 127,44767.24%60,64631.99%1,4610.77%66,80135.25%189,554
Hunterdon 26,05039.07%39,88859.82%7421.11%−13,838−20.75%66,680
Mercer 91,58061.25%56,60437.86%1,3260.89%34,97623.39%149,510
Middlesex 166,62856.33%126,49242.76%2,6850.91%40,13613.57%295,805
Monmouth 133,77344.60%163,65054.56%2,5160.84%−29,877−9.96%299,939
Morris 98,06641.70%135,24157.51%1,8470.79%−37,175−15.81%235,154
Ocean 99,83938.93%154,20460.13%2,4240.95%−54,365−21.20%256,467
Passaic 94,96255.43%75,20043.90%1,1490.67%19,76211.53%171,311
Salem 13,74946.17%15,72152.79%3111.04%−1,972−6.62%29,781
Somerset 66,47647.39%72,50851.69%1,2950.92%−6,032−4.30%140,279
Sussex 23,99034.54%44,50664.08%9621.38%−20,516−29.54%69,458
Union 119,37258.66%82,51740.55%1,6130.79%36,85518.11%203,502
Warren 18,04437.43%29,54261.28%6221.29%−11,498−23.85%48,208
Totals1,911,43052.92%1,670,00346.23%30,7040.85%241,4276.69%3,612,137

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

County Flips: Democratic Hold Republican Hold Gain from Democratic New Jersey County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

By congressional district

Kerry won seven of 13 congressional districts. [21]

DistrictKerryBushRepresentative
1st 61%39% Rob Andrews
2nd 49%50% Frank LoBiondo
3rd 49%51% Jim Saxton
4th 44%56% Chris Smith
5th 43%57% Scott Garrett
6th 57%43% Frank Pallone Jr.
7th 47%53% Mike Ferguson
8th 59%41% Bill Pascrell
9th 59%41% Steve Rothman
10th 82%18% Donald Payne
11th 42%58% Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th 54%46% Rush Holt Jr.
13th 69%31% Bob Menendez

Analysis

Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. Bush won the largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris) and Salem County in the southwest. He also carried the shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May.

This would also be the first election in which a Northern Democrat carried New Jersey since 1960 when fellow Massachusetts Democrat John F. Kennedy did so. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though New Jersey is a northern state. This is the first time a president was elected twice without ever carrying any of the state's electoral votes either time, and only the second occasion (after 1860 and 1864) that any president won two terms without ever carrying the state's popular vote either time.

Electors

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state of New Jersey in 2004. All 15 were pledged to support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards. [22]

  1. Warren Wallace
  2. Wilfredo Caraballo
  3. Tom Canzanella
  4. Carolyn Walch
  5. Peggy Anastos
  6. Bernard Kenny
  7. Ronald Rice
  8. Abed Awad
  9. Jack McGreevey – (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)
  10. Wendy Benchle
  11. Loni Kaplan
  12. Carolyn Wade
  13. Riletta L. Cream
  14. Bernadette McPherson
  15. Upendra Chivukula

See also

References

  1. ↑ "General Election Data - 1924 to 2022" (PDF). NJ.gov.
  2. ↑ "D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings". D.C.'s Political Report. October 29, 2004. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  3. ↑ "Election poll data". uselectionatlas.org. 2004.
  4. 1 2 3 "Bush Has Big Lead Over Dem Challengers In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Hillary Clinton Would Dominate Dem Pack". Quinnipiac Poll. June 19, 2003. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Bush Approval Slips To A Break Even In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrats Are Nipping At His Heels". Quinnipiac Poll. September 25, 2003. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Bush Approval Drops Again In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Top Democrats Now Run Neck-And-Neck With President". Quinnipiac Poll. November 13, 2003. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  7. ↑ "Kerry Edges Bush By Only 3 Points In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Concerns About Iraq, Terrorism Help President". Quinnipiac Poll. May 20, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  8. ↑ "Bush Drops, Giving Kerry Bigger Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; President's Approval At All-Time Low In State". Quinnipiac Poll. June 23, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  9. ↑ "Kerry Bounces In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Low Bush Approval, Little Support For War". Quinnipiac Poll. August 5, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  10. ↑ "Kerry Holds 10-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corzine Buries GOP Contenders In Gov Race". Quinnipiac Poll. August 25, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  11. ↑ "Terrorism Fear Lifts Bush To Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Iraq War Is Wrong And Economy Is Bad". Quinnipiac Poll. September 21, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  12. ↑ "Debate Gives Kerry 3-Point Edge In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Voters Say Bush Acts More Like A Leader". Quinnipiac Poll. October 6, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  13. ↑ "Kerry Has 4-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Matches Bush On Vision, But Not Leadership". Quinnipiac Poll. October 19, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  14. ↑ "Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Terrorism Concerns, Campaign Visit Help President". Quinnipiac Poll. October 27, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  15. ↑ "Quinnipiac University Poll Results In 3 Key States: * Bush Leads Kerry 51 - 43 Percent In Florida; * Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In Pennsylvania; * Kerry Is Ahead 48 - 43 Percent In New Jersey". Quinnipiac Poll. November 1, 2004. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  16. 1 2 "Bush VS. Gore II Is Neck & Neck In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Ex V.P. Is Top Choice Of Garden State Dems". Quinnipiac Poll. December 13, 2002. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  17. ↑ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". campaignmoney.com.
  18. ↑ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". campaignmoney.com.
  19. ↑ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - New Jersey 2004".
  20. ↑ "Official General Election Candidates List" (PDF).
  21. ↑ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  22. ↑ "U. S. Electoral College 2004 Certificate". archives.gov. May 20, 2019.
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