2002 United States Senate election in New Jersey

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2002 United States Senate election in New Jersey
Flag of New Jersey.svg
  1996 November 5, 2002 2008  
  Frank Lautenberg.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Frank Lautenberg [lower-alpha 1] Doug Forrester
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,138,193928,439
Percentage53.88%43.95%

2002 United States Senate election in New Jersey results map by county.svg
2002 United States Senate election in New Jersey by Congressional District.svg
Lautenberg:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Forrester:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Robert Torricelli
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Frank Lautenberg
Democratic

The 2002 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 5, 2002. Former U.S. senator Frank Lautenberg was elected to an open seat over Republican businessman Doug Forrester after incumbent senator Robert Torricelli dropped out of the race on September 30, facing ethical misconduct allegations, a formal admonishment by the U.S. Senate, and falling poll numbers against Forrester.

Contents

Primary elections were held on June 4. Torricelli was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Forrester won a competitive Republican primary over State Senators Diane Allen and John Matheussen. Another leading candidate, Essex County Executive James Treffinger, dropped out of the race on April 22 after facing a federal criminal investigation for bribery.

In the general election Torricelli, who was the target of a federal ethics probe, steadily began to trail Forrester in polling and eventually dropped out of the race in late September. The New Jersey Democratic Party sought to replace him on the general election ballot with Frank Lautenberg, who held the state's other Senate seat from 1982 to 2001. After legal proceedings aimed at forcing Torricelli's name to remain on the ballot were filed by Forrester's campaign, the New Jersey Supreme Court ruled that Lautenberg could be placed on the ballot.

On election day, Lautenberg defeated Forrester by a 9.9% margin, winning a fourth, non-consecutive term as a U.S. senator. At 78, Lautenberg became the oldest non-incumbent to win a Senate election. [1] Lautenberg became the state's junior senator for the second time when he was sworn in on January 3, 2003. (Jon Corzine, who was elected to Lautenberg's old Senate seat, became the senior senator in 2003 as Lautenberg's previous tenure in the Senate was not counted as he was starting over.)

Democratic primary

Candidates

Although Torricelli would later withdraw from the race, he was unopposed for the Democratic nomination on June 4.

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Many Republicans were eager to take on Torricelli, who was the subject of a federal investigation into his fundraising practices in his 1996 election.

James Treffinger became the first candidate to officially announce his campaign in November 2001, shortly after the state elections which ended a decade of Republican rule. Much speculation at the time revolved around popular former Governor Thomas Kean, whom party chair Joe Kyrillos referred to as a "star player." [4]

At the April 8 filing deadline, the two trailing candidates, Assemblyman Guy Gregg and attorney Robert Ray, dropped out of the race. Gregg endorsed Treffinger, who seemingly became the front-runner for the nomination. [3]

However, Treffinger's campaign collapsed less than two weeks later, when his office was raided by federal agents as part of an investigation into his acceptance of campaign contributions in exchange for public contracts. Many state and national Republicans withdrew their support from Treffinger. Four days after the raid, he withdrew from the race. [5] [6]

Results

Republican primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Doug Forrester 97,275 44.56%
Republican Diane Allen80,47636.87%
Republican John J. Matheussen40,54918.58%
Total votes218,300 100.00%

Aftermath

Treffinger was arrested in October and indicted by U.S. Attorney Chris Christie on twenty counts of extortion, fraud, obstructing a federal investigation, and conspiracy. [8] He pleaded guilty in May 2003 to one count of obstruction and one count of mail fraud. [9] [10]

General election

Candidates

Withdrew

Campaign

On July 30, the Senate Ethics Committee issued a letter which "severely admonished" Torricelli for failing to disclose gifts he received and accepted from a donor. [11] In late September, evidence was revealed about the relationship between Toricelli and the donor, and the donor was interviewed on WNBC in a segment dubbed "The Prisoner and the Politician". [12] Torricelli dropped out of the race on September 30 due to ethical problems and poor poll numbers against Forrester, a relatively unknown opponent. [13] Various candidates were sought after to replace Toricelli, including former U.S. senator Bill Bradley, Congressman Bob Menendez and Congressman Frank Pallone. [12] The New Jersey Democratic Party eventually chose former U.S. senator Frank Lautenberg as the party's candidate. In the case of The New Jersey Democratic Party v. Samson, 175 N.J. 178 (2002), Forrester sued to stop Democratic Party efforts to have Lautenberg replace Torricelli. The New Jersey Supreme Court ruled unanimously on October 2 that the party could switch Lautenberg's name in for Sen. Torricelli's on the ballot. [14] Forrester received the endorsement of President George W. Bush. [15]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [16] Lean DNovember 4, 2002

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Bob
Torricelli (D)
Doug
Forrester (R)
Other /
Undecided
Quinnipiac [17] March 20021,005 RV±3.1%51%27%21%
Quinnipiac [18] June 2002 ? ?44%36%20%
Rutgers-Eagleton [19] June 5–9, 2002626 RV±4.0%43%29%21%
Quinnipiac [18] July 31–August 6, 2002978 RV±3.3%37%37%26%
Torricelli internal [18] August 2002 ? LV ?40%40%20%
Forrester internal [18] August 19, 2002 ? LV ?35%47%18%
SurveyUSA [18] August 21, 2002978 RV±3.3%37%48%15%
Rutgers-Eagleton [19] September 3–8, 2002537 LV±4.0%37%33%30%
Rutgers-Eagleton [19] September 18–25, 2002547 RV34%41%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Frank
Lautenberg (D)
Doug
Forrester (R)
Other /
Undecided
Rutgers-Eagleton [19] October 3–6, 2002801 A±4.0%46%40%14%
530 LV±4.5%44%44%12%
Rutgers-Eagleton [19] October 13–17, 2002793 RV±3.5%44%35%22%
Quinnipiac [20] October 16–20, 2002603 LV±4.0%52%43%5%
NYT–CBS News [21] October 19–24, 2002772 RV±?46%39%21% [lower-alpha 3]
SurveyUSA [22] October 27–29, 2002732 (LV)± 3.7%51%41%8%
Rutgers-Eagleton [19] October 27–31, 2002909 RV±3.5%51%34%14%
458 LV±3.5%52%40%8%
Research 2000/ The Record [23] November 1–2, 2002600 LV±4.0%51%42%8%
Hypothetical polling

with Diane Allen

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Robert
Torricelli (D)
Diane
Allen (R)
Undecided
Quinnipiac [17] March 20021,005 RV±3.1%49%30%21%

with Guy Gregg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Robert
Torricelli (D)
Guy
Gregg (R)
Undecided
Quinnipiac [17] March 20021,005 RV±3.1%52%26%22%

with John Mattheussen

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Robert
Torricelli (D)
John
Mattheussen (R)
Undecided
Quinnipiac [17] March 20021,005 RV±3.1%52%28%20%

with James Treffinger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Robert
Torricelli (D)
James
Treffinger (R)
Undecided
Quinnipiac [17] March 20021,005 RV±3.1%51%27%22%


Results

2002 United States Senate election in New Jersey
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Frank Lautenberg 1,138,193 53.88%
Republican Doug Forrester 928,43943.95%
Green Ted Glick24,3081.15%
Libertarian Elizabeth Macron12,5580.59%
Conservative Norman E. Wahner6,4040.30%
Socialist Greg Pason2,7020.13%
Total votes2,112,604 100.00%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

  1. Robert Torricelli was originally the Democratic Party nominee, but withdrew and was replaced on the ballot by Lautenberg
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. 5% were for "other candidates."

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