2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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Turnout	65% (of registered voters)
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance Electoral vote 14 0 Popular vote 2,220,713 1,968,215 Percentage 51.97% 46.06%
County results Municipality results Congressional district results Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Tie   50%
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

As a densely-populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election subsequent to 1988, doing so consistently by double digits starting in 2008. In 2020, the state broke 57%–41% for Democrat Joe Biden of neighboring Delaware. The state was heavily favored to be carried by the Democrats by forecasters.

New Jersey was won by the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. However, she won the state by 5.9 points, significantly smaller than Biden's 16-point win in 2020. This is the first time since the 2004 presidential election that the Democratic nominee won the state with a single digit margin of victory, and Republican nominee Donald Trump's 46% vote share in New Jersey is on par with George W. Bush's performance in 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning the state's electoral votes since George H. W. Bush in 1992. New Jersey also had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after neighboring New York, owing largely to poor Democratic turnout compared to 2020 and 2016. ^[2] New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York, California, and Illinois in seeing significant rightward trends in 2024. ^[3] Trump's over 1.96 million votes is the most received by a Republican in a presidential election in the state's history, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 1.93 million votes from 1984.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

The New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

New Jersey Democratic primary, June 4, 2024 ^[4]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	458,281	88.2%	124
Uncommitted	46,988	9.1%	2
Terrisa Bukovinac	14,179	2.7%
Write-in votes	1,269	0.2%
Total:	520,717	100.0%	126	20	146

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 New Jersey Republican presidential primary

The New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

New Jersey Republican primary, June 4, 2024 ^[5]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	294,658	96.7%	12	0	12
Write-in votes	9,915	3.3%	0	0	0
Total:	304,573	100.00%	12	0	12

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [6]	Solid D	November 1, 2024
Inside Elections [7]	Solid D	October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8]	Safe D	September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [9]	Safe D	August 26, 2024
CNalysis [10]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [11]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist [12]	Safe D	October 27, 2024
538 [13]	Solid D	October 21, 2024
NBC News [14]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Research Co. [15]	November 2–3, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	57%	40%	3%
Rutgers-Eagleton [16]	October 15–22, 2024	451 (RV)	–	55%	35%	10% [b]
		478 (RV)		51% [c]	37%	12% [d]
ActiVote [17]	October 2–28, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	57%	43%	–
Cygnal (R) [18]	October 23–24, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	52%	40%	8% [e]
ActiVote [19]	September 4 – October 2, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	56%	44%	–

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
United 2024 (R) [20]	July 1–2, 2024	477 (RV)	± 4.5%	41%	43%	16%
John Zogby Strategies [21] [A]	April 13–21, 2024	530 (LV)	–	51%	42%	7%
Emerson College [22]	March 26–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	39%	15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
United 2024 (R) [20]	July 1–2, 2024	477 (RV)	± 4.5%	43%	43%	8%	—	3%	3%
Emerson College [22]	March 26–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	36%	8%	1%	1%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
co/efficient (R) [23]	June 26–27, 2024	810 (LV)	± 3.4%	40%	41%	7% [f]	12%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [21] [A]	April 13–21, 2024	530 (LV)	–	48%	41%	11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [21] [A]	April 13–21, 2024	530 (LV)	–	42%	40%	18%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey ^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	2,220,713	51.97%	−5.37%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	1,968,215	46.06%	+4.66%
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	39,041	0.91%	+0.60%
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	23,479	0.55%	N/A
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	10,500	0.25%	−0.45%
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz Karina Garcia	5,105	0.12%	+0.06%
	Constitution	Randall Terry Stephen Broden	3,024	0.07%	+0.01%
	Socialist Equality	Joseph Kishore Jerome White	1,371	0.03%	N/A
	Socialist Workers	Rachele Fruit Margaret Trowe [g]	1,277	0.03%	N/A
Total votes			4,272,725	100.0%
	Democratic hold

By county

Swing by county

Legend

•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

County	Kamala Harris Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Atlantic	61,879	47.52%	65,817	50.55%	2,513	1.93%	-3,938	-3.03%	130,209
Bergen	232,660	50.50%	217,096	47.12%	10,929	2.38%	15,564	3.38%	460,685
Burlington	132,275	57.47%	94,116	40.89%	3,792	1.64%	38,159	16.58%	230,183
Camden	155,522	62.76%	87,767	35.42%	4,497	1.82%	67,755	27.34%	247,786
Cape May	21,648	39.51%	32,151	58.68%	987	1.81%	-10,503	-19.17%	54,786
Cumberland	26,577	47.50%	28,675	51.25%	700	1.25%	-2,098	-3.75%	55,952
Essex	224,596	71.69%	83,908	26.78%	4,779	1.53%	140,688	44.91%	313,283
Gloucester	78,708	47.63%	83,326	50.42%	3,229	1.95%	-4,618	-2.79%	165,263
Hudson	144,765	62.34%	79,913	34.41%	7,554	3.25%	64,852	27.93%	232,232
Hunterdon	36,995	45.52%	42,391	52.16%	1,885	2.32%	-5,396	-6.64%	81,271
Mercer	107,558	65.67%	52,274	31.92%	3,947	2.41%	55,284	33.75%	163,779
Middlesex	191,802	52.31%	162,459	44.31%	12,378	3.38%	29,343	8.00%	366,639
Monmouth	156,382	43.25%	197,409	54.59%	7,805	2.16%	-41,027	-11.34%	361,596
Morris	135,672	47.43%	143,439	50.14%	6,955	2.43%	-7,767	-2.71%	286,066
Ocean	105,789	31.30%	227,232	67.22%	5,014	1.48%	-121,443	-35.92%	338,035
Passaic	95,156	46.79%	100,954	49.65%	7,241	3.56%	-5,798	-2.86%	203,351
Salem	12,275	39.49%	18,229	58.64%	581	1.87%	-5,954	-19.15%	31,085
Somerset	98,790	55.39%	74,101	41.55%	5,452	3.06%	24,689	13.84%	178,343
Sussex	31,019	36.53%	52,123	61.38%	1,775	2.09%	-21,104	-24.85%	84,917
Union	147,327	60.90%	89,063	36.81%	5,533	2.29%	58,264	24.09%	241,923
Warren	23,318	38.63%	35,772	59.27%	1,266	2.10%	-12,454	-20.64%	60,356
Totals	2,220,713	51.79%	1,968,215	45.90%	98,812	2.31%	252,498	5.89%	4,287,740

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Atlantic (largest municipality: Egg Harbor Township)
• Cumberland (largest municipality: Vineland)
• Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
• Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)
• Passaic (largest municipality: Paterson)

By congressional district

Harris won 8 of 12 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Trump, including one that elected a Democrat. ^[26]

District	Harris	Trump	Representative
1st	58%	40%	Donald Norcross
2nd	43%	55%	Jeff Van Drew
3rd	53%	45%	Andy Kim (118th Congress)
			Herb Conaway (119th Congress)
4th	34%	64%	Chris Smith
5th	50%	48%	Josh Gottheimer
6th	52%	45%	Frank Pallone Jr.
7th	48%	49%	Tom Kean Jr.
8th	61%	37%	Rob Menendez
9th	48%	49%	Nellie Pou
10th	74%	24%	LaMonica McIver
11th	53%	44%	Mikie Sherrill
12th	60%	37%	Bonnie Watson Coleman

By State Legislative District

Harris won 25 of 40 State Legislative districts. Harris carried 3 districts (2nd, 8th, 21st) represented by Republican senators, while Trump carried 3 districts represented by Democratic Senators (3rd, 36th, 38th). ^[27]

District	Harris	Trump	State Senator
1st	44%	55%	Mike Testa
2nd	50%	48%	Vincent J. Polistina
3rd	45%	53%	John Burzichelli
4th	50%	48%	Paul D. Moriarty
5th	64%	35%	Nilsa Cruz-Perez
6th	63%	35%	James Beach
7th	64%	35%	Troy Singleton
8th	50%	49%	Latham Tiver
9th	35%	64%	Carmen Amato
10th	35%	63%	James W. Holzapfel
11th	51%	47%	Vin Gopal
12th	36%	61%	Owen Henry
13th	41%	57%	Declan O'Scanlon
14th	54%	43%	Linda R. Greenstein
15th	70%	28%	Shirley Turner
16th	55%	41%	Andrew Zwicker
17th	64%	32%	Bob Smith
18th	53%	43%	Patrick J. Diegnan
19th	49%	48%	Joe F. Vitale
20th	61%	37%	Joseph Cryan
21st	55%	43%	Jon Bramnick
22nd	61%	37%	Nicholas Scutari
23rd	44%	54%	Doug Steinhardt
24th	39%	59%	Parker Space
25th	49%	49%	Anthony M. Bucco
26th	44%	53%	Joseph Pennacchio
27th	64%	33%	John F. McKeon
28th	88%	11%	Renee Burgess
29th	70%	29%	Teresa Ruiz
30th	26%	72%	Robert W. Singer
31st	62%	35%	Angela V. McKnight
32nd	70%	27%	Raj Mukherji
33rd	55%	42%	Brian P. Stack
34th	69%	29%	Britnee Timberlake
35th	54%	42%	Nellie Pou
36th	47%	51%	Paul Sarlo
37th	60%	37%	Gordon M. Johnson
38th	49%	49%	Joseph Lagana
39th	48%	50%	Holly Schepisi
40th	45%	52%	Kristin Corrado

Analysis

Trump retook Gloucester County and Morris County, which he won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020. Additionally, Trump is the first Republican to win Passaic County since 1992, as well as Atlantic County and Cumberland County since 1988, while also being the first Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the state's counties since 1992.

With this election, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli's strong performance in the 2021 gubernatorial election, some analysts believe New Jersey has transitioned from a reliable blue state into a potential swing state. ^[28] The concurrent Senate race also lends this theory some legitimacy, as Kim was polling 20 points ahead of Bashaw in aggregates, but only won by 9.4%, a smaller margin than Menendez received in 2018 at 11.2%.

See also

• United States presidential elections in New Jersey
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Neither/Someone else" with 6%
3. With each candidate's party affiliation excluded
4. "Neither/Someone else" with 7%
5. "A third-party candidate" with 4%
6. Grouped with "Other Third Party Candidate"
7. Replaced by Dennis Richter. ^[25]

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. Tully, Tracey; New York Times (November 7, 2024). "Trump's Narrow Loss in New Jersey Signals a Shift to the Right". The New York Times .
3. Reporter, Martha McHardy US News (November 6, 2024). "America's red shift: Map shows how much each state moved toward Trump". Newsweek. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
4. "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
5. "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
6. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
10. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
12. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved November 2, 2024.
13. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
14. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
15. Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
16. "New Jersey Voters Are "True Blue" to Democrats, But Loyalty Fades and Uncertainty Rises in the Absence of Partisanship Down Ballot" (PDF). Rutgers-Eagleton. October 30, 2024.
17. Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Harris Leads in New Jersey". ActiVote.
18. Shucard, Ryan (October 26, 2024). "New Jersey Statewide Poll: Harris Underperforms Compared to Past Democratic Nominees". Cygnal. Archived from the original on October 29, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
19. Allis, Victor (October 3, 2024). "Harris leads by double digits in New Jersey". ActiVote. Retrieved October 3, 2024.
20. Wildstein, David (July 3, 2024). "GOP super PAC poll in N.J. shows Biden vs. Trump, Kim vs. Bashaw statistically tied". New Jersey Globe .
21. "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
22. Mumford, Camille (April 2, 2024). "New Jersey 2024 Poll: Majority of Democrats Support Kim for U.S. Senate Nomination". Emerson Polling.
23. "New Jersey U.S. Senate 2024 - General Election". co/efficient. June 27, 2024.
24. Secretary of State of New Jersey (December 5, 2024). "Official General Election Results: U.S. President" (PDF). nj.gov. Retrieved December 16, 2024.
25. "Dennis Richter, SWP candidate for vice president – The Militant". The Militant – A socialist newsweekly published in the interests of working people. May 4, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
26. Fox, Joey (December 23, 2024). "Maps of the 2024 presidential race in every congressional and legislative district". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved January 10, 2025.
27. https://newjerseyglobe.com/presidential-election/maps-of-the-2024-presidential-race-by-every-congressional-legislative-district/
28. Friedman, Matt; Han, Daniel (November 6, 2024). New Jersey might be a swing state now. Politico . Retrieved November 9, 2024.