2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) J. D. Vance

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Jersey voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

As a densely-populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election starting in 1992, doing so consistently by double digits starting in 2008. In 2020, the state broke 57%-41% for Democrat Joe Biden of neighboring Delaware. However, early polling showed a tighter race in 2024 compared to previous election cycles.

Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[2]

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed he had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot in May 2024. ^[3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

The New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

New Jersey Democratic primary, June 4, 2024 ^[4]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	458,281	88.2%	124
Uncommitted	46,988	9.1%	2
Terrisa Bukovinac	14,179	2.7%
Write-in votes	1,269	0.2%
Total:	520,717	100.0%	126	20	146

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 New Jersey Republican presidential primary

The New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

New Jersey Republican primary, June 4, 2024 ^[5]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	294,658	96.7%	12		12
Write-in votes	9,915	3.3%
Total:	304,573	100.00%	12	0	12

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [6]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [7]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [9]	Likely D	June 8, 2024
CNalysis [10]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [11]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist [12]	Likely D	July 17, 2024
538 [13]	Likely D	June 11, 2024
RCP [14]	Likely D	June 26, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
United 2024 (R)	July 1–2, 2024	477 (RV)	± 4.5%	41%	43%	16%
co/efficient (R)	June 26–27, 2024	810 (LV)	± 3.4%	40%	41%	20% [lower-alpha 2]
Emerson College	March 26–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	39%	15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
United 2024 (R)	July 1–2, 2024	477 (RV)	± 4.5%	43%	43%	8%	—	3%	3%
Emerson College	March 26–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	36%	8%	1%	1%	13%

See also

• United States presidential elections in New Jersey
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Kennedy or other third-party candidate with 7%; Undecided with 13%

Partisan clients

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
3. "Kennedy Collects Signatures Needed to Gain Ballot Access in New Jersey". Kennedy 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
4. "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
5. "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
6. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
12. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved July 17, 2024.
13. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
14. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.