2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
  David McCormick Under Secretary.jpg Bob Casey Jr. official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee Dave McCormick Bob Casey Jr.
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote3,399,2953,384,180
Percentage48.82%48.60%

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg
County results
McCormick:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Casey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Dave McCormick
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Dave McCormick in a major upset. [1] The primary election took place on April 23, 2024. [2] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain their majority in 2024. [3]

Contents

The Associated Press and Fox News declared McCormick the winner on November 7, [4] while Decision Desk HQ called the race for McCormick on November 14. [5] CNN, NBC, ABC, and CBS all called the race for McCormick on November 21; Casey conceded the race later that day. [6]

This was Pennsylvania's closest US Senate election since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment, as well as the closest senate election of the 2024 cycle. Notably, the margin of just 0.25% between the Republican and Democratic candidates is less than the votes received by either the Libertarian candidate, John Thomas (1.29% of the vote), the Green candidate, Leila Hazou (0.95% of the vote), or the Constitution candidate, Marty Selker (0.34% of the vote).

With Kamala Harris's loss to Republican Donald Trump in the state's concurrent presidential election, this would be the first time since 1880 where Pennsylvania Democrats lost the state's electoral votes as well as an incumbent senator. Pennsylvania will also make one of several states to have a younger senior senator (John Fetterman) and an older junior senator (McCormick).

A recount confirmed the result of the election. [7]

Background

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats had controlled both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, a majority of its U.S. House delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016. [8] [9] [10] [11]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent Senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points. [12] [13] [14]

The race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean. Most polls showed Casey to be the slight favorite to win. [15]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

  • William Parker, app developer [17] [18]

Endorsements

Bob Casey Jr.

Executive officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Individuals

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D)$23,790,263$12,391,802$11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission [53]

Results

Democratic primary results [54]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Disqualified

  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate [57]

Declined

Endorsements

David McCormick

Executive Branch officials

Federal officials

State cabinet officials

U.S senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

Local officials

  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present) [75]

Party officials

Organizations

Political parties

Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
David McCormick (R)$11,052,879$4,660,701$6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission [53]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kathy
Barnette
Doug
Mastriano
David
McCormick
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [84] March 9–10, 2023616 (LV)11%39%21%29%
42%28%29%

Results

Republican primary results [54]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David McCormick 878,320 100.00%
Total votes878,320 100.00%

Third parties

Libertarian convention

Nominee

  • John Thomas, educator [85]

Eliminated at convention

  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020 [86]

Green Party

Nominee

  • Leila Hazou, shop owner [87]

Constitution Party

Nominee

  • Bernard Selker, truck driver [87]

American Solidarity Party

Disqualified

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [89] TossupOctober 21, 2024
Inside Elections [90] Tilt DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [91] Lean DJune 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [92] Lean DJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily [93] Lean DOctober 24, 2024
CNalysis [94] Lean DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [95] TossupAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [96] Lean DOctober 23, 2024
538 [97] Lean DOctober 28, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Executive branch officials

David McCormick (R)

Former U.S. executive officials

U.S. Senators

Individuals

John Thomas (L)

Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey (D)$52,879,737$50,545,793$2,821,961
David McCormick (R)$27,698,652 [b] $26,030,736$1,675,736
Source: Federal Election Commission [53]

Debates

2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CaseyMcCormick
1October 3, 2024 WHTM-TV Dennis Owens YouTube PP
2October 15, 2024 WPVI-TV Matt O'Donnell, Sharrie Williams, Ilia Garcia C-SPAN PP

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
David
McCormick (R)
Undecided
[c]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight [106] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.2%45.4%6.4%Casey +2.8%
RealClearPolitics [107] October 21 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.1%46.3%5.6%Casey +1.8%
270toWin [108] October 24 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.4%45.9%5.7%Casey +2.5%
TheHill/DDHQ [109] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.6%46.6%4.8%Casey +2.0%
Average48.3%46.1%5.6%Casey +2.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
David
McCormick (R)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [110] November 3–4, 20241,840 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%2%2%
Survation [111] November 1–4, 2024929 (LV)49%42%3% [d] 6%
Research Co. [112] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%48%46%2% [e] 4%
Patriot Polling (R) [113] November 1–3, 2024903 (RV)± 3.0%50%49%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [114] November 1–3, 20241,089 (LV)± 2.9%46%47%7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [115] November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%2%3%
AtlasIntel [116] November 1–2, 20242,049 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%3% [f] 2%
Emerson College [117] [A] October 30 – November 2, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%6%
NYT/Siena College [118] [B] October 29 – November 2, 20241,527 (LV)± 2.9%50%45%4%
1,527 (RV)± 2.8%50%45%6%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [119] October 25 – November 2, 2024699 (LV)± 3.6%49%44%1% [g] 6%
726 (RV)± 3.6%48%43%2% [h] 7%
Morning Consult [120] October 23 – November 1, 20241,538 (LV)± 3.0%46%43%11%
OnMessage (R) [121] October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)46%46%8%
Data for Progress (D) [122] October 25–31, 2024908 (LV)± 3.0%49%45%2% [i] 4%
YouGov [123] [C] October 25–31, 2024947 (LV)± 3.5%50%44%6%
982 (RV)50%43%6%
ActiVote [124] October 14–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%50.5%49.5%
Muhlenberg College [125] [D] October 27–30, 2024460 (LV)± 6.0%49%46%3%1%
Suffolk University [126] [E] October 27–30, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%2% [i] 2%
Marist College [127] October 27–30, 20241,400 (LV)± 3.4%50%48%1% [j] 1%
1,558 (RV)± 3.2%50%48%1% [j] 1%
Echelon Insights [128] October 27–30, 2024600 (LV)± 4.5%44%47%3% [k] 5%
AtlasIntel [129] October 27–30, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.0%49%46%3% [f] 2%
The Washington Post [130] October 26–30, 20241,204 (LV)± 3.1%49%46%2% [l] 3%
1,204 (RV)49%45%3% [m] 3%
AtlasIntel [131] October 25–29, 20241,229 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%3% [f] 2%
Fox News [132] October 24–28, 20241,057 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%1%
1,310 (RV)± 2.5%51%46%1%2%
Quinnipiac University [133] October 24–28, 20242,186 (LV)± 2.1%50%47%2% [n] 1%
Monmouth University [134] October 24–28, 2024824 (RV)± 3.8%45%44%12%
CNN/SSRS [135] October 23–28, 2024819 (LV)± 4.7%48%45%6% [o] 1%
CBS News/YouGov [136] October 22–28, 20241,249 (LV)± 3.6%48%42%3% [p] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [137] October 26–27, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%47%2% [q] 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [138] [F] October 22–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%42%5% [r] 9%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [139] October 16–23, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%48%42%3% [s] 7%
Emerson College [140] [G] October 21–22, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%47%46%2% [t] 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [141] October 18–22, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%2% [u] 4%
Franklin & Marshall College [142] October 9–20, 2024583 (LV)± 5.0%49%48%3%
794 (RV)± 4.3%48%41%5% [v] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [143] October 17–19, 20241,084 (LV)± 2.9%47%47%6%
AtlasIntel [144] October 12–17, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.0%47%48%2% [w] 3%
The Bullfinch Group [145] October 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%50%43%8%
YouGov [146] [H] October 7–17, 20241,043 (LV)± 3.44%50%42%8%
1,062 (RV)± 3.4%49%42%9%
Morning Consult [120] October 6–15, 20241,395 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%10%
NYT/Siena College [147] [B] October 7–10, 2024857 (LV)± 3.8%48%44%8%
857 (RV)± 3.7%48%43%9%
American Pulse Research & Polling [148] October 2–10, 20241,193 (LV)± 2.8%48%45%2% [x] 5%
TIPP Insights (R) [149] [F] October 7–9, 2024803 (LV)± 3.5%47%43%1% [y] 9%
1,079 (RV)48%40%1% [z] 12%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [150] October 2–9, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%3% [aa] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [151] October 7–8, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%45%2% [q] 6%
Emerson College [152] [A] October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%6%
Research Co. [153] October 5–7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%47%44%1% [ab] 8%
Quinnipiac University [154] October 3–7, 20241,412 (LV)± 2.6%51%43%2% [ac] 5%
ActiVote [155] September 6 – October 7, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [156] [ad] September 28–29, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%45%44%5% [ae] 7%
Patriot Polling (R) [157] September 27–29, 2024816 (RV)± 3.0%51%48%
The Bullfinch Group [158] [I] September 26–29, 2024800 (LV)± 3.46%48%39%12% [af]
52%42%6% [ag]
The Trafalgar Group (R) [159] September 26–29, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%47%46%7%
Emerson College [160] [G] September 27–28, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%8%
AtlasIntel [161] September 20–25, 20241,775 (LV)± 2.0%47%45%1% [ah] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [162] [J] September 19–25, 2024474 (LV)48%42%3% [ai] 6%
52%45%3%
Fox News [163] September 20–24, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%53%44%1% [aj] 2%
1,021 (RV)± 3.0%53%44%1% [aj] 2%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research
(D) [164] [K]
September 17–24, 2024816 (RV)± 3.0%49%45%6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [165] September 16–22, 2024700 (LV)± 3.7%48%40%1% [ak] 11%
RMG Research [166] [L] September 18–20, 2024783 (LV)± 3.5%50%44%1% [aj] 5%
Remington Research Group (R) [167] [M] September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%45%7%
Muhlenberg College [168] [D] September 16–19, 2024450 (LV)± 6.0%48%43%5%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [169] [N] September 16–19, 20241,086 (LV)± 2.8%47%41%2% [al] 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [170] September 11–19, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%47%38%3% [aa] 13%
Emerson College [171] [A] September 15–18, 2024880 (LV)± 3.2%47%42%11%
MassINC Polling Group [172] [O] September 12–18, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%49%42%2% [am] 6%
Morning Consult [120] September 9–18, 20241,756 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%11%
Marist College [173] September 12–17, 20241,663 (RV)± 2.0%52%46%1% [j] 1%
1,476 (LV)± 3.2%52%47%1%
Quinnipiac University [174] September 12–16, 20241,331 (LV)± 2.7%52%43%1% [an] 3%
The Washington Post [175] September 12–16, 20241,003 (LV)± 3.6%47%46%7% [ao]
48%48%5% [ap]
NYT/Siena College [176] [B] September 11–16, 20241,082 (RV)± 4.1%48%39%13%
1,082 (LV)± 4.3%49%40%11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [177] September 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%44%2% [q] 5%
Franklin & Marshall College [178] September 4–15, 2024890 (RV)± 4.1%48%40%3% [aq] 10%
Suffolk University [179] [E] September 11–14, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%43%2% [ar] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [180] [N] September 6–9, 2024801 (LV)± 3.0%44%36%5% [as] 14%
Morning Consult [181] August 30 – September 8, 20241,910 (LV)± 2.0%49%40%11%
co/efficient [182] September 4–6, 2024889 (LV)± 3.29%45%36%19%
CBS News/YouGov [183] September 3–6, 20241,076 (LV)± 3.4%48%41%3% [at] 8%
YouGov [184] [C] August 23 – September 3, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.6%52%41%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [185] August 28–30, 20241,082 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%8%
CNN/SRSS [186] August 23–29, 2024789 (LV)± 4.7%46%46%7% [au] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [187] [N] August 25–28, 20241,071 (LV)± 2.8%44%38%4% [av] 14%
Emerson College [188] [A] August 25–28, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%48%44%8%
SoCal Strategies (R) [189] [P] August 23, 2024713 (LV)47%41%12%
800 (RV)45%40%15%
ActiVote [190] August 3–23, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%
Fabrizio Ward [191] [Q] August 19–21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%43%11%
Cygnal (R) [192] August 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%12%
42%38%7% [aw] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [187] [N] August 12–15, 2024825 (LV)± 3.2%44%36%1% [ax] 17%
Emerson College [193] August 13–14, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Quinnipiac University [194] August 8–12, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.4%52%44%1% [ay] 3%
The Bullfinch Group [195] [R] August 8–11, 2024500 (RV)± 4.38%51%39%10%
Franklin & Marshall College [196] July 21 – August 11, 2024920 (RV)± 3.8%48%36%3% [az] 13%
NYT/Siena College [197] August 6–9, 2024693 (RV)± 4.0%50%36%14%
693 (LV)± 4.2%51%37%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [198] [N] July 31 – August 3, 2024743 (LV)± 3.4%45%40%2% [ba] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [199] [J] July 26 – August 2, 2024411 (LV)53%40%7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [200] July 22–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%11%
Fox News [201] July 22–24, 20241,034 (RV)± 3.0%55%42%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [202] [N] July 22–24, 2024851 (LV)± 3.1%46%39%4% [bb] 11%
Emerson College [203] [S] July 22–23, 2024850 (RV)± 3.3%48%44%8%
SoCal Research (R) [204] [T] July 20–21, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%40%10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [205] [U] July 17–18, 2024624 (RV)± 3.8%50%39%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [206] [N] July 16–18, 2024688 (LV)44%37%3% [bc] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [207] [V] July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)47%44%9%
YouGov [208] [C] July 4–12, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.4%50%38%1%11%
889 (LV)51%39%1%9%
NYT/Siena College [209] July 9–11, 2024872 (RV)± 3.7%50%39%10%
872 (LV)± 3.8%50%42%8%
Expedition Strategies [210] [W] June 24 – July 8, 2024284 (LV)48%45%7%
Remington Research Group (R) [211] [M] June 29 – July 1, 2024673 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%4%
Cygnal (R) [212] June 27–28, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%42%12%
The Bullfinch Group [213] [X] June 14–19, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%48%36%16%
Emerson College [214] [A] June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%41%12%
Marist College [215] June 3–6, 20241,181 (RV)± 3.6%52%46%2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [216] May 30–31, 20241,012 (RV)± 3.1%48%40%5%7%
923 (LV)± 3.1%49%42%3%6%
KAConsulting (R) [217] [Y] May 15–19, 2024600 (RV)47%37%4% [bd] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [218] [J] May 6–13, 2024730 (LV)± 3.6%49%41%10%
NYT/Siena College [219] [B] April 28 – May 9, 20241,023 (RV)± 3.6%46%41%13%
1,023 (LV)± 3.6%46%44%10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research
(D) [220] [K]
April 24–30, 20241,398 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Emerson College [221] [A] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%42%12%
CBS News/YouGov [222] April 19–25, 20241,306 (LV)± 3.1%46%39%15%
Muhlenberg College [223] April 15–25, 2024417 (RV)± 6.0%45%41%5%9%
The Bullfinch Group [224] [R] March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%45%38%9%8%
National Public Affairs [225] March 2024759 (LV)± 3.6%32%28%40%
Franklin & Marshall College [226] March 20–31, 2024431 (RV)± 5.7%46%39%15%
The Bullfinch Group [227] [X] March 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%47%30%8%15%
Emerson College [228] March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [229] February 27 – March 7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%48%42%10%
Emerson College [230] February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%13%
Chism Strategies [231] February 6–8, 2024500 (RV)± 5.0%38%37%25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [232] [Z] January 22–25, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%40%12%
Franklin & Marshall College [233] January 17–28, 20231,006 (RV)± 3.6%47%35%4%14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [234] January 15–21, 2024745 (LV)± 3.7%46%42%3%9%
Quinnipiac University [235] January 4–8, 20241,680 (RV)± 2.4%53%43%1% [aj] 2%
Common Ground (R) [236] [X] December 8–12, 2023800 (RV)± 3.5%42%27%13% [be] 20%
Change Research (D) [237] [AA] December 3–7, 20232,532 (RV)± 3.5%44%41%0%15%
Franklin & Marshall College [238] October 11–22, 2023873 (RV)± 4.1%46%39%4%12%
Emerson College [239] October 1–4, 2023430 (RV)± 4.7%41%33%8%18%
Quinnipiac University [240] September 28 – October 2, 20231,725 (RV)± 2.4%50%44%2% [bf] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [241] May 2–8, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%53%41%1%5%
Cygnal (R) [242] April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%0%13%
Franklin & Marshall College [243] March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 6.6%42%35%23%
Hypothetical polling

Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
Doug
Mastriano (R)
Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College [243] March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 3.7%47%31%22%
Cygnal (R) [242] April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%49%39%12%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania [244]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican David McCormick 3,399,295 48.82% +6.20%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)3,384,18048.60%−7.14%
Libertarian John Thomas89,6531.29%+0.27%
Green Leila Hazou66,3880.95%+0.33%
Constitution Marty Selker23,6210.34%N/A
Total votes6,963,137 100.0%
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county

County [245] David McCormick
Republican
Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Adams 38,50563.88%19,94733.09%1,8243.03%18,55630.79%60,276
Allegheny 272,86138.112%425,28059.404%17,7812.484%-152,419-21.290%715,922
Armstrong 26,65372.14%9,13624.73%1,1553 13%17,51747.42%36,944
Beaver 53,58556.56%38,52640.66%2,6362.78%15,05915.89%94,747
Bedford 22,85581.50%4,62416.49%5642.01%18,23165.01%28,043
Berks 108,05853.06%89,06345.74%6,5213.20%18,9959.33%203,642
Blair 44,74169.13%18,44528.50%1,5372.37%26,29640.63%64,723
Bradford 22,09971.50%8,00725.90%8042.60%14,09245.59%30,910
Bucks 194,24448.57%196,47849.13%9,1912.30%−2,234-0.56%399,913
Butler 77,32863.925%40,97333.871%2,6662.204%36,35530.054%120,967
Cambria 46,48265.464%22,88732.243%1,6352.303%23,59533.231%71,004
Cameron 1,55870.37%58026.20%763.43%97844.17%2,214
Carbon 22,603 64.45%11,57032.99%8982.56%11,03331.46%35,071
Centre 38,05447.32%40,382 50.22% 1,9792.46%-2,328-2.89%80,415
Chester 138,27142.60% 178,765 55.07% 7,5512.33%-40,494−22.65%324,587
Clarion 14,179 72.06% 4,68323.80%8154.14%9,49648.26%19,677
Clearfield 29,063 72.27% 10,11125.14%1,0382.58%18,95247.13%40,212
Clinton 12,250 66.403% 5,72231.017%4762.580%6,52835.386%18,448
Columbia 20,617 63.63% 10,96933.85%8142.51%9,64829.78%32,400
Crawford 28,234 63.10% 13,37031.30%1,1102.60%14,86431.80%42,714
Cumberland 78,178 53.037% 64,71343.902%4,5123.061%13,4659.135%147,403
Dauphin 66,94944.945% 77,022 51.708% 4,9853.347%−10,073-6.763%148,956
Delaware 121,48237.212% 197,424 60.475% 7,5512.313%−75,942-23.263%326,457
Elk 11,939 69.749% 4,67928.335%4992.916%7,26042.414%17,117
Erie 65,60347.94% 67,868 49.60% 3,3712.46%−2,265-1.66%136,842
Fayette 40,804 64.82% 20,75232.97%1,3892.21%20,05231.86%62,945
Forest 1,808 68.25% 74127.97%1003.78%1,06740.28%2,649
Franklin 57,217 68.836% 23,59128.381%2,3132.783%33,62640.455%83,121
Fulton 6,773 83.45% 1,19714.75%1461.80%5,57668.70%8,116
Greene 11,643 67.91% 5,07529.60%4272.49%6,56868.31%17,145
Huntingdon 16,910 74.43% 5,58224.24%9864.28%11,32849.19%23,028
Indiana 27,881 66.28% 13,18131.33%1,0062.39%14,70034.94%42,068
Jefferson 17,618 76.34% 4,83420.95%6262.71%12,78455.39%23,078
Juniata 9,252 76.824% 2,47820.576%3132.600%6,77456.248%12,043
Lackawanna 51,94444.82% 61,653 53.20% 2,2891.98%−9,709−8.38%115,886
Lancaster 162,105 56.218% 118,58041.123%7,6682.659%43,52515.095%288,353
Lawrence 29,405 62.842% 16,17634.570%1,2112.588%13,22928.272%46,792
Lebanon 46,172 63.13% 24,74533.83%2,2223.04%21,42729.30%73,139
Lehigh 87,14746.458% 94,875 50.577% 5,5622.965%−7,728−4.119%187,584
Luzerne 87,048 56.166% 64,49541.614%3,4422.221%22,55314.552%154,985
Lycoming 40,672 68.36% 17,35429.17%1,4722.47%23,31839.19%59,498
McKean 13,799 70.51% 5,23126.73%5412 47%8,56843.78%19,571
Mercer 36,468 62.78% 20,30234.95%1,3182.27%16,16627.83%58,088
Mifflin 16,413 74.79% 4,99122.74%5422.47%11,42252.05%21,946
Monroe 40,88448.07% 41,712 49.04% 2,4552.89%−828-0.97%85,051
Montgomery 196,42237.78% 311,859 59.98% 11,6872.25%−115,437−22.20%519,968
Montour 5,847 59.060% 3,81338.515%2402.425%2,03420.545%9,900
Northampton
Northumberland
Perry
Philadelphia
Pike
Potter
Schuylkill
Snyder
Somerset
Sullivan
Susquehanna
Tioga
Union
Venango
Warren
Washington
Wayne
Westmoreland
Wyoming
York
Totals3,399,29548.82%3,384,18048.60%179,6622.58%15,1150.22%6,963,137

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Recount

In Pennsylvania, a statewide recount is triggered under state law if the margin falls within 0.5% of the total vote. Preliminary results for the election reached this threshold on November 13, 2024, with McCormick at 48.9% leading Casey's 48.5%, as outstanding ballots continued to be counted across the state. Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt officially ordered the recount later that evening, with Casey declining to concede. [246] The deadline for the counties to begin their recounts is on November 20, the third Wednesday after the election according to state law, however, counties can start their recounts as early as November 18, with all counties required to submit their results to the Department of State by noon on November 26 as the results must be reported by the Secretary of the Commonwealth by noon on November 27. [247] Additionally, the counties must use different machines for the recount than were used on Election Day. [248]

During the initial counting of votes, various Pennsylvania Democrats voted to illegally count mail-in ballots that had been thrown out due to missing or incorrect dates, something that is a disqualifier according to Pennsylvania state law. [249] While some lower courts have deemed this rule illegal, it was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court on November 1, alongside a decision allowing provisional ballots with the same issues to be counted. [250] This was admitted by some officials, with Bucks County elections commissioner Diane-Ellis Marseglia stating that "people violate laws anytime they want. So, for me, if I violate this law, it's because I want a court to pay attention." [251] Following the decision by certain Democratic-controlled elections boards to continue counting invalid ballots, Republicans announced several lawsuits against the counties that had chosen to do so, [252] and the decision was criticized by conservative outlets as well as the editorial board of the Washington Post . [253] On Monday, November 18 the Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed all of the state's county election officials not to count certain mail-in ballots for this year's general election that arrived on time but in envelopes without the correct dates handwritten by voters. [254] [255]

The last instance of a statewide recount being held was for the 2022 Republican primary for Pennsylvania's Class 3 Senate seat, of which McCormick was also a candidate. Conversely to his stance in the 2024 general election, he unsuccessfully sued to have undated mail-in ballots counted. After completion of the recount he would concede to Mehmet Oz, with the final results expanding Oz's margin by 49 votes. [256]

Analysis

McCormick had some benefit from Trump's coattails, but unlike Ohio and Montana, McCormick had to look beyond the Trump base, given he was running in a swing state. Casey and Trump both won Bucks, Erie, and Monroe County. McCormick campaigned with Nikki Haley, who ran as a more establishment candidate, to draw in voters who were more uneasy about Trump. Casey aired ads in late October to highlight his votes with the Trump administration, while McCormick tied Casey to Harris, highlighting his votes with the Biden administration. [257] [258]

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. $4,263,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  5. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  6. 1 2 3 "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  7. "Another candidate" with 1%
  8. "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. 1 2 Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
  10. 1 2 3 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. Hazou (G) with 2%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  14. "Refused" with 2%
  15. "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
  16. "Someone else" with 3%
  17. 1 2 3 "Other" with 2%
  18. Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. "Someone else" with 2%
  21. "Refuse" with 2%
  22. "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
  23. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. "Another candidate" with 2%
  25. "Other" with 1%
  26. "Other" with 1%
  27. 1 2 Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  28. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  29. "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  30. Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
  31. "Other" with 5%
  32. "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
  33. Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
  34. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  35. "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  36. 1 2 3 4 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  37. "Other" with 1%
  38. Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  39. "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
  40. "Refused" with 1%
  41. "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
  42. "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
  43. "Other" with 3%
  44. Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  45. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  46. "Someone else" with 3%
  47. "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  48. Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  49. Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  50. Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  51. "Refused" with 1%
  52. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  53. John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  54. John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  55. Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  56. "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  57. "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  58. "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  2. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  3. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by USA Today
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. 1 2 Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  8. Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  9. Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
  10. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  11. 1 2 Poll commissioned by AARP
  12. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  13. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  15. Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
  16. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  17. Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  18. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  19. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  20. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  21. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  22. Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  23. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  25. Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  26. Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  27. Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

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