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County results McCormick: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Casey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Pennsylvania |
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Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Dave McCormick in a major upset. [1] The primary election took place on April 23, 2024. [2] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain their majority in 2024. [3]
The Associated Press and Fox News declared McCormick the winner on November 7, [4] while Decision Desk HQ called the race for McCormick on November 14. [5] CNN, NBC, ABC, and CBS all called the race for McCormick on November 21; Casey conceded the race later that day. [6]
This was Pennsylvania's closest US Senate election since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment, as well as the closest senate election of the 2024 cycle. Notably, the margin of just 0.25% between the Republican and Democratic candidates is less than the votes received by either the Libertarian candidate, John Thomas (1.29% of the vote), the Green candidate, Leila Hazou (0.95% of the vote), or the Constitution candidate, Marty Selker (0.34% of the vote).
With Kamala Harris's loss to Republican Donald Trump in the state's concurrent presidential election, this would be the first time since 1880 where Pennsylvania Democrats lost the state's electoral votes as well as an incumbent senator. Pennsylvania will also make one of several states to have a younger senior senator (John Fetterman) and an older junior senator (McCormick).
A recount confirmed the result of the election. [7]
Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats had controlled both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, a majority of its U.S. House delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016. [8] [9] [10] [11]
Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent Senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points. [12] [13] [14]
The race was considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean. Most polls showed Casey to be the slight favorite to win. [15]
Executive officials
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Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) | $23,790,263 | $12,391,802 | $11,886,480 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [53] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 1,024,545 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 1,024,545 | 100.00% |
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Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
David McCormick (R) | $11,052,879 | $4,660,701 | $6,399,998 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [53] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Kathy Barnette | Doug Mastriano | David McCormick | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [84] | March 9–10, 2023 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
– | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David McCormick | 878,320 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 878,320 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [89] | Tossup | October 21, 2024 |
Inside Elections [90] | Tilt D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [91] | Lean D | June 13, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [92] | Lean D | June 8, 2024 |
Elections Daily [93] | Lean D | October 24, 2024 |
CNalysis [94] | Lean D | November 21, 2023 |
RealClearPolitics [95] | Tossup | August 5, 2024 |
Split Ticket [96] | Lean D | October 23, 2024 |
538 [97] | Lean D | October 28, 2024 |
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Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Bob Casey (D) | $52,879,737 | $50,545,793 | $2,821,961 |
David McCormick (R) | $27,698,652 [b] | $26,030,736 | $1,675,736 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [53] |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Casey | McCormick | |||||
1 | October 3, 2024 | WHTM-TV | Dennis Owens | YouTube | P | P |
2 | October 15, 2024 | WPVI-TV | Matt O'Donnell, Sharrie Williams, Ilia Garcia | C-SPAN | P | P |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | David McCormick (R) | Undecided [c] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight [106] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.2% | 45.4% | 6.4% | Casey +2.8% |
RealClearPolitics [107] | October 21 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.1% | 46.3% | 5.6% | Casey +1.8% |
270toWin [108] | October 24 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 45.9% | 5.7% | Casey +2.5% |
TheHill/DDHQ [109] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.6% | 46.6% | 4.8% | Casey +2.0% |
Average | 48.3% | 46.1% | 5.6% | Casey +2.2% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | David McCormick (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel [110] | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,840 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2% |
Survation [111] | November 1–4, 2024 | 929 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 3% [d] | 6% |
Research Co. [112] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 46% | 2% [e] | 4% |
Patriot Polling (R) [113] | November 1–3, 2024 | 903 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | – | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [114] | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | – | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [115] | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 2% | 3% |
AtlasIntel [116] | November 1–2, 2024 | 2,049 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 3% [f] | 2% |
Emerson College [117] [A] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
NYT/Siena College [118] [B] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,527 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 45% | – | 4% |
1,527 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 45% | – | 6% | ||
Mainstreet Research/FAU [119] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 699 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 44% | 1% [g] | 6% |
726 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 43% | 2% [h] | 7% | ||
Morning Consult [120] | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 1,538 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
OnMessage (R) [121] | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
Data for Progress (D) [122] | October 25–31, 2024 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | 2% [i] | 4% |
YouGov [123] [C] | October 25–31, 2024 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | – | 6% |
982 (RV) | 50% | 43% | – | 6% | |||
ActiVote [124] | October 14–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50.5% | 49.5% | – | – |
Muhlenberg College [125] [D] | October 27–30, 2024 | 460 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 49% | 46% | 3% | 1% |
Suffolk University [126] [E] | October 27–30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 2% [i] | 2% |
Marist College [127] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,400 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | 1% [j] | 1% |
1,558 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 48% | 1% [j] | 1% | ||
Echelon Insights [128] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 47% | 3% [k] | 5% |
AtlasIntel [129] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 3% [f] | 2% |
The Washington Post [130] | October 26–30, 2024 | 1,204 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 46% | 2% [l] | 3% |
1,204 (RV) | 49% | 45% | 3% [m] | 3% | |||
AtlasIntel [131] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,229 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 3% [f] | 2% |
Fox News [132] | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,057 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 1% |
1,310 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 51% | 46% | 1% | 2% | ||
Quinnipiac University [133] | October 24–28, 2024 | 2,186 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 50% | 47% | 2% [n] | 1% |
Monmouth University [134] | October 24–28, 2024 | 824 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 44% | – | 12% |
CNN/SSRS [135] | October 23–28, 2024 | 819 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 45% | 6% [o] | 1% |
CBS News/YouGov [136] | October 22–28, 2024 | 1,249 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 42% | 3% [p] | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [137] | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 2% [q] | 4% |
North Star Opinion Research (R) [138] [F] | October 22–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 42% | 5% [r] | 9% |
UMass Lowell/YouGov [139] | October 16–23, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 3% [s] | 7% |
Emerson College [140] [G] | October 21–22, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 46% | 2% [t] | 6% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [141] | October 18–22, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 2% [u] | 4% |
Franklin & Marshall College [142] | October 9–20, 2024 | 583 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
794 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 41% | 5% [v] | 6% | ||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [143] | October 17–19, 2024 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
AtlasIntel [144] | October 12–17, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 48% | 2% [w] | 3% |
The Bullfinch Group [145] | October 11–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 8% |
YouGov [146] [H] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,043 (LV) | ± 3.44% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
1,062 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% | ||
Morning Consult [120] | October 6–15, 2024 | 1,395 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
NYT/Siena College [147] [B] | October 7–10, 2024 | 857 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
857 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% | ||
American Pulse Research & Polling [148] | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 45% | 2% [x] | 5% |
TIPP Insights (R) [149] [F] | October 7–9, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 43% | 1% [y] | 9% |
1,079 (RV) | 48% | 40% | 1% [z] | 12% | |||
UMass Lowell/YouGov [150] | October 2–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 3% [aa] | 10% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [151] | October 7–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 45% | 2% [q] | 6% |
Emerson College [152] [A] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
Research Co. [153] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 44% | 1% [ab] | 8% |
Quinnipiac University [154] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 51% | 43% | 2% [ac] | 5% |
ActiVote [155] | September 6 – October 7, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
OnMessage Inc. (R) [156] [ad] | September 28–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 44% | 5% [ae] | 7% |
Patriot Polling (R) [157] | September 27–29, 2024 | 816 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | – |
The Bullfinch Group [158] [I] | September 26–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 48% | 39% | 12% [af] | – |
52% | 42% | 6% [ag] | – | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [159] | September 26–29, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
Emerson College [160] [G] | September 27–28, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
AtlasIntel [161] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 45% | 1% [ah] | 6% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [162] [J] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 3% [ai] | 6% |
52% | 45% | – | 3% | ||||
Fox News [163] | September 20–24, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 44% | 1% [aj] | 2% |
1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 44% | 1% [aj] | 2% | ||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/ Impact Research (D) [164] [K] | September 17–24, 2024 | 816 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [165] | September 16–22, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 40% | 1% [ak] | 11% |
RMG Research [166] [L] | September 18–20, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | 1% [aj] | 5% |
Remington Research Group (R) [167] [M] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | – | 7% |
Muhlenberg College [168] [D] | September 16–19, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 43% | 5% | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [169] [N] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 41% | 2% [al] | 10% |
UMass Lowell/YouGov [170] | September 11–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 38% | 3% [aa] | 13% |
Emerson College [171] [A] | September 15–18, 2024 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
MassINC Polling Group [172] [O] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 2% [am] | 6% |
Morning Consult [120] | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,756 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
Marist College [173] | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 46% | 1% [j] | 1% |
1,476 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% | ||
Quinnipiac University [174] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 43% | 1% [an] | 3% |
The Washington Post [175] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 46% | 7% [ao] | – |
48% | 48% | 5% [ap] | – | ||||
NYT/Siena College [176] [B] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
1,082 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
InsiderAdvantage (R) [177] | September 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | 2% [q] | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College [178] | September 4–15, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 40% | 3% [aq] | 10% |
Suffolk University [179] [E] | September 11–14, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | 2% [ar] | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [180] [N] | September 6–9, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 36% | 5% [as] | 14% |
Morning Consult [181] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,910 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
co/efficient [182] | September 4–6, 2024 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.29% | 45% | 36% | – | 19% |
CBS News/YouGov [183] | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 3% [at] | 8% |
YouGov [184] [C] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 41% | – | 8% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [185] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 8% |
CNN/SRSS [186] | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 46% | 46% | 7% [au] | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [187] [N] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 38% | 4% [av] | 14% |
Emerson College [188] [A] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
SoCal Strategies (R) [189] [P] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
800 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | – | 15% | ||
ActiVote [190] | August 3–23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
Fabrizio Ward [191] [Q] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
Cygnal (R) [192] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
42% | 38% | 7% [aw] | 13% | ||||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [187] [N] | August 12–15, 2024 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 36% | 1% [ax] | 17% |
Emerson College [193] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Quinnipiac University [194] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 44% | 1% [ay] | 3% |
The Bullfinch Group [195] [R] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
Franklin & Marshall College [196] | July 21 – August 11, 2024 | 920 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 3% [az] | 13% |
NYT/Siena College [197] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 37% | – | 11% | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [198] [N] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 40% | 2% [ba] | 12% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [199] [J] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 53% | 40% | – | 7% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [200] | July 22–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
Fox News [201] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 42% | – | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [202] [N] | July 22–24, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 4% [bb] | 11% |
Emerson College [203] [S] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
SoCal Research (R) [204] [T] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [205] [U] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [206] [N] | July 16–18, 2024 | 688 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 3% [bc] | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [207] [V] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
YouGov [208] [C] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 38% | 1% | 11% |
889 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% | ||
NYT/Siena College [209] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 10% |
872 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
Expedition Strategies [210] [W] | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 284 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
Remington Research Group (R) [211] [M] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 4% |
Cygnal (R) [212] | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
The Bullfinch Group [213] [X] | June 14–19, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 36% | – | 16% |
Emerson College [214] [A] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Marist College [215] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,181 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 46% | – | 2% |
Mainstreet Research/FAU [216] | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 40% | 5% | 7% |
923 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% | ||
KAConsulting (R) [217] [Y] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 47% | 37% | 4% [bd] | 12% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [218] [J] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
NYT/Siena College [219] [B] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
1,023 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | ||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) [220] [K] | April 24–30, 2024 | 1,398 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Emerson College [221] [A] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
CBS News/YouGov [222] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,306 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
Muhlenberg College [223] | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 45% | 41% | 5% | 9% |
The Bullfinch Group [224] [R] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 9% | 8% |
National Public Affairs [225] | March 2024 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 28% | – | 40% |
Franklin & Marshall College [226] | March 20–31, 2024 | 431 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
The Bullfinch Group [227] [X] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 30% | 8% | 15% |
Emerson College [228] | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [229] | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
Emerson College [230] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | – | 13% |
Chism Strategies [231] | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [232] [Z] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – | 12% |
Franklin & Marshall College [233] | January 17–28, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [234] | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 9% |
Quinnipiac University [235] | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 43% | 1% [aj] | 2% |
Common Ground (R) [236] [X] | December 8–12, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 27% | 13% [be] | 20% |
Change Research (D) [237] [AA] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 0% | 15% |
Franklin & Marshall College [238] | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 39% | 4% | 12% |
Emerson College [239] | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 33% | 8% | 18% |
Quinnipiac University [240] | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 2% [bf] | 4% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [241] | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
Cygnal (R) [242] | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 0% | 13% |
Franklin & Marshall College [243] | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | Doug Mastriano (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin & Marshall College [243] | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Cygnal (R) [242] | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David McCormick | 3,399,295 | 48.82% | +6.20% | |
Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 3,384,180 | 48.60% | −7.14% | |
Libertarian | John Thomas | 89,653 | 1.29% | +0.27% | |
Green | Leila Hazou | 66,388 | 0.95% | +0.33% | |
Constitution | Marty Selker | 23,621 | 0.34% | N/A | |
Total votes | 6,963,137 | 100.0% | |||
Republican gain from Democratic |
County [245] | David McCormick Republican | Bob Casey Jr. Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Adams | 38,505 | 63.88% | 19,947 | 33.09% | 1,824 | 3.03% | 18,556 | 30.79% | 60,276 |
Allegheny | 272,861 | 38.112% | 425,280 | 59.404% | 17,781 | 2.484% | -152,419 | -21.290% | 715,922 |
Armstrong | 26,653 | 72.14% | 9,136 | 24.73% | 1,155 | 3 13% | 17,517 | 47.42% | 36,944 |
Beaver | 53,585 | 56.56% | 38,526 | 40.66% | 2,636 | 2.78% | 15,059 | 15.89% | 94,747 |
Bedford | 22,855 | 81.50% | 4,624 | 16.49% | 564 | 2.01% | 18,231 | 65.01% | 28,043 |
Berks | 108,058 | 53.06% | 89,063 | 45.74% | 6,521 | 3.20% | 18,995 | 9.33% | 203,642 |
Blair | 44,741 | 69.13% | 18,445 | 28.50% | 1,537 | 2.37% | 26,296 | 40.63% | 64,723 |
Bradford | 22,099 | 71.50% | 8,007 | 25.90% | 804 | 2.60% | 14,092 | 45.59% | 30,910 |
Bucks | 194,244 | 48.57% | 196,478 | 49.13% | 9,191 | 2.30% | −2,234 | -0.56% | 399,913 |
Butler | 77,328 | 63.925% | 40,973 | 33.871% | 2,666 | 2.204% | 36,355 | 30.054% | 120,967 |
Cambria | 46,482 | 65.464% | 22,887 | 32.243% | 1,635 | 2.303% | 23,595 | 33.231% | 71,004 |
Cameron | 1,558 | 70.37% | 580 | 26.20% | 76 | 3.43% | 978 | 44.17% | 2,214 |
Carbon | 22,603 | 64.45% | 11,570 | 32.99% | 898 | 2.56% | 11,033 | 31.46% | 35,071 |
Centre | 38,054 | 47.32% | 40,382 | 50.22% | 1,979 | 2.46% | -2,328 | -2.89% | 80,415 |
Chester | 138,271 | 42.60% | 178,765 | 55.07% | 7,551 | 2.33% | -40,494 | −22.65% | 324,587 |
Clarion | 14,179 | 72.06% | 4,683 | 23.80% | 815 | 4.14% | 9,496 | 48.26% | 19,677 |
Clearfield | 29,063 | 72.27% | 10,111 | 25.14% | 1,038 | 2.58% | 18,952 | 47.13% | 40,212 |
Clinton | 12,250 | 66.403% | 5,722 | 31.017% | 476 | 2.580% | 6,528 | 35.386% | 18,448 |
Columbia | 20,617 | 63.63% | 10,969 | 33.85% | 814 | 2.51% | 9,648 | 29.78% | 32,400 |
Crawford | 28,234 | 63.10% | 13,370 | 31.30% | 1,110 | 2.60% | 14,864 | 31.80% | 42,714 |
Cumberland | 78,178 | 53.037% | 64,713 | 43.902% | 4,512 | 3.061% | 13,465 | 9.135% | 147,403 |
Dauphin | 66,949 | 44.945% | 77,022 | 51.708% | 4,985 | 3.347% | −10,073 | -6.763% | 148,956 |
Delaware | 121,482 | 37.212% | 197,424 | 60.475% | 7,551 | 2.313% | −75,942 | -23.263% | 326,457 |
Elk | 11,939 | 69.749% | 4,679 | 28.335% | 499 | 2.916% | 7,260 | 42.414% | 17,117 |
Erie | 65,603 | 47.94% | 67,868 | 49.60% | 3,371 | 2.46% | −2,265 | -1.66% | 136,842 |
Fayette | 40,804 | 64.82% | 20,752 | 32.97% | 1,389 | 2.21% | 20,052 | 31.86% | 62,945 |
Forest | 1,808 | 68.25% | 741 | 27.97% | 100 | 3.78% | 1,067 | 40.28% | 2,649 |
Franklin | 57,217 | 68.836% | 23,591 | 28.381% | 2,313 | 2.783% | 33,626 | 40.455% | 83,121 |
Fulton | 6,773 | 83.45% | 1,197 | 14.75% | 146 | 1.80% | 5,576 | 68.70% | 8,116 |
Greene | 11,643 | 67.91% | 5,075 | 29.60% | 427 | 2.49% | 6,568 | 68.31% | 17,145 |
Huntingdon | 16,910 | 74.43% | 5,582 | 24.24% | 986 | 4.28% | 11,328 | 49.19% | 23,028 |
Indiana | 27,881 | 66.28% | 13,181 | 31.33% | 1,006 | 2.39% | 14,700 | 34.94% | 42,068 |
Jefferson | 17,618 | 76.34% | 4,834 | 20.95% | 626 | 2.71% | 12,784 | 55.39% | 23,078 |
Juniata | 9,252 | 76.824% | 2,478 | 20.576% | 313 | 2.600% | 6,774 | 56.248% | 12,043 |
Lackawanna | 51,944 | 44.82% | 61,653 | 53.20% | 2,289 | 1.98% | −9,709 | −8.38% | 115,886 |
Lancaster | 162,105 | 56.218% | 118,580 | 41.123% | 7,668 | 2.659% | 43,525 | 15.095% | 288,353 |
Lawrence | 29,405 | 62.842% | 16,176 | 34.570% | 1,211 | 2.588% | 13,229 | 28.272% | 46,792 |
Lebanon | 46,172 | 63.13% | 24,745 | 33.83% | 2,222 | 3.04% | 21,427 | 29.30% | 73,139 |
Lehigh | 87,147 | 46.458% | 94,875 | 50.577% | 5,562 | 2.965% | −7,728 | −4.119% | 187,584 |
Luzerne | 87,048 | 56.166% | 64,495 | 41.614% | 3,442 | 2.221% | 22,553 | 14.552% | 154,985 |
Lycoming | 40,672 | 68.36% | 17,354 | 29.17% | 1,472 | 2.47% | 23,318 | 39.19% | 59,498 |
McKean | 13,799 | 70.51% | 5,231 | 26.73% | 541 | 2 47% | 8,568 | 43.78% | 19,571 |
Mercer | 36,468 | 62.78% | 20,302 | 34.95% | 1,318 | 2.27% | 16,166 | 27.83% | 58,088 |
Mifflin | 16,413 | 74.79% | 4,991 | 22.74% | 542 | 2.47% | 11,422 | 52.05% | 21,946 |
Monroe | 40,884 | 48.07% | 41,712 | 49.04% | 2,455 | 2.89% | −828 | -0.97% | 85,051 |
Montgomery | 196,422 | 37.78% | 311,859 | 59.98% | 11,687 | 2.25% | −115,437 | −22.20% | 519,968 |
Montour | 5,847 | 59.060% | 3,813 | 38.515% | 240 | 2.425% | 2,034 | 20.545% | 9,900 |
Northampton | |||||||||
Northumberland | |||||||||
Perry | |||||||||
Philadelphia | |||||||||
Pike | |||||||||
Potter | |||||||||
Schuylkill | |||||||||
Snyder | |||||||||
Somerset | |||||||||
Sullivan | |||||||||
Susquehanna | |||||||||
Tioga | |||||||||
Union | |||||||||
Venango | |||||||||
Warren | |||||||||
Washington | |||||||||
Wayne | |||||||||
Westmoreland | |||||||||
Wyoming | |||||||||
York | |||||||||
Totals | 3,399,295 | 48.82% | 3,384,180 | 48.60% | 179,662 | 2.58% | 15,115 | 0.22% | 6,963,137 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
In Pennsylvania, a statewide recount is triggered under state law if the margin falls within 0.5% of the total vote. Preliminary results for the election reached this threshold on November 13, 2024, with McCormick at 48.9% leading Casey's 48.5%, as outstanding ballots continued to be counted across the state. Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt officially ordered the recount later that evening, with Casey declining to concede. [246] The deadline for the counties to begin their recounts is on November 20, the third Wednesday after the election according to state law, however, counties can start their recounts as early as November 18, with all counties required to submit their results to the Department of State by noon on November 26 as the results must be reported by the Secretary of the Commonwealth by noon on November 27. [247] Additionally, the counties must use different machines for the recount than were used on Election Day. [248]
During the initial counting of votes, various Pennsylvania Democrats voted to illegally count mail-in ballots that had been thrown out due to missing or incorrect dates, something that is a disqualifier according to Pennsylvania state law. [249] While some lower courts have deemed this rule illegal, it was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court on November 1, alongside a decision allowing provisional ballots with the same issues to be counted. [250] This was admitted by some officials, with Bucks County elections commissioner Diane-Ellis Marseglia stating that "people violate laws anytime they want. So, for me, if I violate this law, it's because I want a court to pay attention." [251] Following the decision by certain Democratic-controlled elections boards to continue counting invalid ballots, Republicans announced several lawsuits against the counties that had chosen to do so, [252] and the decision was criticized by conservative outlets as well as the editorial board of the Washington Post . [253] On Monday, November 18 the Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed all of the state's county election officials not to count certain mail-in ballots for this year's general election that arrived on time but in envelopes without the correct dates handwritten by voters. [254] [255]
The last instance of a statewide recount being held was for the 2022 Republican primary for Pennsylvania's Class 3 Senate seat, of which McCormick was also a candidate. Conversely to his stance in the 2024 general election, he unsuccessfully sued to have undated mail-in ballots counted. After completion of the recount he would concede to Mehmet Oz, with the final results expanding Oz's margin by 49 votes. [256]
McCormick had some benefit from Trump's coattails, but unlike Ohio and Montana, McCormick had to look beyond the Trump base, given he was running in a swing state. Casey and Trump both won Bucks, Erie, and Monroe County. McCormick campaigned with Nikki Haley, who ran as a more establishment candidate, to draw in voters who were more uneasy about Trump. Casey aired ads in late October to highlight his votes with the Trump administration, while McCormick tied Casey to Harris, highlighting his votes with the Biden administration. [257] [258]
Partisan clients
The 2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican Rick Santorum ran for re-election to a third term, but was easily defeated by Democratic State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., the son of former Governor Bob Casey Sr. Casey was elected to serve between January 3, 2007 and January 3, 2013.
David Harold McCormick is an American politician and businessman who is a United States Senator-elect for Pennsylvania. He served as chief executive officer (CEO) of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds, from 2020 to 2022.
The 2008 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania was part of the 2008 United States presidential election, which took place on November 4, 2008, throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.
Robert Patrick Casey Jr. is an American lawyer and politician who is the senior United States senator from Pennsylvania, a seat he has held since 2007. He is a member of the Democratic Party and the dean of Pennsylvania's congressional delegation.
The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Toomey was reelected to a second term in a close race, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford. With a margin of 1.43%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in New Hampshire.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term. Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta, Green Party nominee Neal Gale, and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns. Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.
The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk. The primary elections were held on May 15. This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.
The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic former state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman won his first term in office, defeating Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz. Fetterman succeeded Republican incumbent senator Pat Toomey, who did not seek re-election after two terms. This was the only U.S. Senate seat to flip parties in 2022.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Republican incumbent Rick Scott won a second term, defeating Democratic former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 12.8 percent. The primary election was August 20, 2024.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Sam Brown. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Nevada on the same ballot. Primary elections took place on June 11, 2024.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Bernie Moreno by 3.6 percent. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024.
The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic state attorney general Josh Shapiro defeated Republican state senator Doug Mastriano to win his first term in office. Shapiro succeeded Democratic incumbent Tom Wolf, who was term limited.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a third term, narrowly defeating Republican nominee Eric Hovde. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried the state on the same ballot. This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson was reelected as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state in 1968. The closest of Baldwin's three Senate victories, the race held similarities to Ron Johnson's narrow win in 2022, down to the percentage and raw vote margin by which the incumbents won.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican former U.S. Navy captain Hung Cao. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.
The 2024 Indiana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the next governor of Indiana, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Republican Senator Mike Braun won his first term in office, defeating Democrat former state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick. He will succeed Republican incumbent Eric Holcomb, who was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term.
The 2024 State Treasurer in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the Pennsylvania state treasurer. Incumbent Republican treasurer Stacy Garrity was re-elected to a second term in office, defeating Democratic candidate Erin McClelland.
Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.
Official campaign websites