2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
  Bob Casey Jr. official photo (cropped).jpg David McCormick Under Secretary.jpg
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. David McCormick
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. is seeking a fourth term. [1] He is being challenged by Republican businessman David McCormick. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024. [2] The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. [3]

Contents

Background

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016. [4] [5] [6] [7]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points. [8] [9] [10]

The race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Casey to be the slight favorite to win. [11]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

  • William Parker, app developer [13] [14]

Endorsements

Bob Casey Jr.
Executive officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D)$23,790,263$12,391,802$11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission [49]

Results

Democratic primary results [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Disqualified

  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate [53]

Declined

Endorsements

David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State cabinet officials
U.S senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present) [71]
Party officials
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dave McCormick (R)$11,052,879$4,660,701$6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission [49]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kathy
Barnette
Doug
Mastriano
David
McCormick
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023616 (LV)11%39%21%29%
42%28%29%

Results

Republican primary results [80]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David McCormick 878,320 100.00%
Total votes878,320 100.00%

Third parties

Libertarian convention

Nominee

  • John Thomas, educator [81]

Eliminated at convention

  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020 [82]

Green Party

Nominee

  • Leila Hazou, shop owner [83]

Constitution Party

Nominee

  • Bernard Selker, truck driver [83]

American Solidarity Party

Disqualified

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [85] Lean DNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [86] Tilt DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [87] Lean DJune 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [88] Lean DJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily [89] Likely DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [90] Lean DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [91] TossupAugust 5, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey (D)$31,831,903$23,893,851$8,426,069
David McCormick (R)$18,063,787 [lower-alpha 2] $9,799,118$8,272,490
Source: Federal Election Commission [49]

Debates

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania debates [92]
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee W  Withdrawn
CaseyMcCormick
1October 3, 2024 WHTM-TV Dennis OwensII

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
David
McCormick (R)
Undecided
[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
RCP August 23 - September 16, 2024September 18, 202448.0%43.7%8.3%Casey Jr. +4.3
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
David
McCormick (R)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University September 12–16, 20241,331 (LV)± 2.7%52%43%1% [lower-alpha 4] 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%44%2% [lower-alpha 5] 5%
Suffolk University [upper-alpha 1] September 11–14, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%43%2% [lower-alpha 6] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 2] September 6–9, 2024801 (LV)± 3.02%44%36%5% [lower-alpha 7] 14%
Morning Consult August 30 – September 8, 20241,910 (LV)± 2.0%49%40%11%
co/efficient September 4–6, 2024889 (LV)± 3.29%45%36%19%
CBS News/YouGov September 3–6, 20241,076 (LV)± 3.4%48%41%3% [lower-alpha 8] 8%
YouGov [upper-alpha 3] August 23 – September 3, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.6%52%41%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 28–30, 20241,082 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%8%
CNN/SRSS August 23–29, 2024789 (LV)± 4.7%46%46%7% [lower-alpha 9] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 2] August 25–28, 20241,071 (LV)± 2.8%44%38%4% [lower-alpha 10] 14%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 4] August 25–28, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%48%44%8%
SoCal Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 5] August 23, 2024713 (LV)47%41%12%
800 (RV)45%40%15%
ActiVote August 3-23, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%
Fabrizio Ward [upper-alpha 6] August 19–21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%43%11%
Cygnal (R) August 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%12%
42%38%7% [lower-alpha 11] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 2] August 12–15, 2024825 (LV)± 3.18%44%36%1% [lower-alpha 12] 17%
Emerson College August 13–14, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Quinnipiac University August 8–12, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.4%52%44%1% [lower-alpha 13] 3%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 7] August 8–11, 2024500 (RV)± 4.38%51%39%10%
Franklin & Marshall College July 21 – August 11, 2024920 (RV)± 3.8%48%36%3% [lower-alpha 14] 1%
NYT/Siena College August 6–9, 2024693 (RV)± 4.0%50%36%14%
693 (LV)± 4.2%51%37%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 2] July 31 – August 3, 2024743 (LV)± 3.38%45%40%2% [lower-alpha 15] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 8] July 26 – August 2, 2024411 (LV)53%40%7%
Susquehanna Polling
and Research (R)
July 22–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 2] July 22–24, 2024851 (LV)± 3.08%46%39%4% [lower-alpha 16] 11%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 9] July 22–23, 2024850 (RV)± 3.3%48%44%8%
SoCal Research (R) [upper-alpha 10] July 20–21, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%40%10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 11] July 17–18, 2024624 (RV)± 3.8%50%39%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 2] July 16–18, 2024688 (LV)44%37%3% [lower-alpha 17] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 12] July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)47%44%9%
YouGov [upper-alpha 3] July 4–12, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.4%50%38%1%11%
889 (LV)51%39%1%9%
NYT/Siena College July 9–11, 2024872 (RV)± 3.7%50%39%10%
872 (LV)± 3.8%50%42%8%
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 13] June 29 – July 1, 2024601 (LV)49%48%3%
Cygnal (R) June 27–28, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%42%12%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 14] June 14–19, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%48%36%16%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 4] June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%41%12%
Marist College June 3–6, 20241,181 (RV)± 3.6%52%46%2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU May 30–31, 20241,012 (RV)± 3.1%48%40%5%7%
923 (LV)± 3.1%49%42%3%6%
KAConsulting (R) [upper-alpha 15] May 15–19, 2024600 (RV)47%37%4% [lower-alpha 18] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 8] May 6–13, 2024730 (LV)± 3.6%49%41%10%
NYT/Siena College [upper-alpha 16] April 28 – May 9, 20241,023 (RV)± 3.6%46%41%13%
1,023 (LV)± 3.6%46%44%10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)
[upper-alpha 17]
April 24–30, 20241,398 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%8%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 4] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%42%12%
CBS News/YouGov April 19–25, 20241,306 (LV)± 3.1%46%39%15%
Muhlenberg College April 15–25, 2024417 (RV)± 6.0%45%41%5%9%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 7] March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%45%38%9%8%
National Public Affairs March 2024759 (LV)± 3.6%32%28%40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024431 (RV)± 5.7%46%39%15%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 14] March 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%47%30%8%15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%
Susquehanna Polling
& Research
February 27 – March 7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%48%42%10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024500 (RV)± 5.0%38%37%25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 18] January 22–25, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%40%12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 20231,006 (RV)± 3.6%47%35%4%14%
Susquehanna Polling
& Research (R)
January 15–21, 2024745 (LV)± 3.7%46%42%3%9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 20241,680 (RV)± 2.4%53%43%1% [lower-alpha 19] 2%
Common Ground (R) [upper-alpha 14] December 8–12, 2023800 (RV)± 3.5%42%27%13% [lower-alpha 20] 20%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 19] December 3–7, 20232,532 (RV)± 3.5%44%41%0%15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023873 (RV)± 4.1%46%39%4%12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023430 (RV)± 4.7%41%33%8%18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 20231,725 (RV)± 2.4%50%44%2% [lower-alpha 21] 4%
Susquehanna Polling
& Research (R)
May 2–8, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%53%41%1%5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%0%13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 6.6%42%35%23%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Bob
Casey Jr. (D)
Doug
Mastriano (R)
Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 3.7%47%31%22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%49%39%12%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)
Republican David McCormick
Libertarian John Thomas
Green Leila Hazou
Constitution Bernard Selker
Total votes

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. $4,063,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. "Refused" with 1%
  5. "Other" with 2%
  6. Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  7. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 3%
  9. "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  10. Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  11. Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  12. Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  13. "Refused" with 1%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  15. John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  16. John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  17. Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  18. "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  19. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  20. "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  21. "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by USA Today
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  3. 1 2 Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  5. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  6. Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  7. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  8. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  9. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  10. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  11. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  12. Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  13. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  15. Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  16. Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  17. Poll commissioned by AARP
  18. Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  19. Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

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