2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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  McCormick Portrait (HR) (cropped).jpg Bob Casey Jr. official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee Dave McCormick Bob Casey Jr.
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote3,399,2953,384,180
Percentage48.82%48.60%
2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg
County results
McCormick:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Casey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Dave McCormick
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Dave McCormick in what was considered a major upset. [1] Most predictions gave Casey a slight advantage, and Casey narrowly led in most polls. Along with Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jon Tester in Montana, Casey was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. [2]

Contents

The primary election took place on April 23, 2024. [3] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain their majority in 2024. [4]

The Associated Press and Fox News declared McCormick the winner on November 7, [5] while Decision Desk HQ called the race for McCormick on November 14. [6] CNN, NBC, ABC, and CBS all called the race for McCormick on November 21; Casey conceded the race later that day. [7] A recount confirmed the result of the election. [8]

This was Pennsylvania's closest US Senate election since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment, as well as the closest Senate election of the 2024 cycle. McCormick was the only Republican challenger to win in a state flipped by Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The other three Republican Senate gains were in states Trump had won in all three of his runs. With Democrats winning the other Senate seat two years earlier, this was the first time since the 2012 Senate election in Indiana where the opposite party flipped a seat after losing one in the previous cycle.

Notably, the margin of just 0.22% between the Republican and Democratic candidates is fewer than the votes received by either the Libertarian candidate, John Thomas (1.29% of the vote), the Green candidate, Leila Hazou (0.95% of the vote), or the Constitution candidate, Marty Selker (0.34% of the vote).

This election made Pennsylvania one of several states to have a younger senior senator (John Fetterman) and an older junior senator (McCormick). McCormick was sworn in on January 3, 2025.

Background

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats had controlled both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, a majority of its U.S. House delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016. [9] [10] [11] [12]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent Senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points. [13] [14] [15] Given these three decisive victories, Casey's fourth term appeared inevitable for much of the race. However, tightening polls in the final weeks indicated a closer contest, even as Casey was largely considered the favorite to win. [16]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

  • William Parker, app developer [18] [19]

Endorsements

Bob Casey Jr.

Executive officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Individuals

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D)$23,790,263$12,391,802$11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission [54]

Results

Democratic primary results [55]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Disqualified

  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate [58]

Declined

Endorsements

Dave McCormick

Executive Branch officials

Federal officials

State cabinet officials

U.S senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

Local officials

  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present) [76]

Party officials

Organizations

Political parties

Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dave McCormick (R)$11,052,879$4,660,701$6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission [54]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kathy
Barnette		Doug
Mastriano		David
McCormick		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [85] March 9–10, 2023616 (LV)–11%39%21%29%
––42%28%29%

Results

Republican primary results [55]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Dave McCormick 878,320 100.00%
Total votes878,320 100.00%

Third parties

Libertarian convention

Nominee

  • John Thomas, educator [86]

Eliminated at convention

  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020 [87]

Green Party

Nominee

  • Leila Hazou, shop owner [88]

Constitution Party

Nominee

  • Bernard Selker, truck driver [88]

American Solidarity Party

Disqualified

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [90] TossupOctober 21, 2024
Inside Elections [91] Tilt DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [92] Lean DJune 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [93] Lean DJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily [94] Lean DOctober 24, 2024
CNalysis [95] Lean DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [96] TossupAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [97] Lean DOctober 23, 2024
538 [98] Lean DOctober 28, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Executive branch officials

Dave McCormick (R)

Former U.S. executive officials

U.S. Senators

Individuals

John Thomas (L)

Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey (D)$52,879,737$50,545,793$2,821,961
Dave McCormick (R)$27,698,652 [b] $26,030,736$1,675,736
Source: Federal Election Commission [54]

Debates

2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CaseyMcCormick
1October 3, 2024 WHTM-TV Dennis Owens YouTube PP
2October 15, 2024 WPVI-TV Matt O'Donnell, Sharrie Williams, Ilia Garcia C-SPAN PP

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		Dave
McCormick (R)		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
538 [107] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.2%45.4%6.4%Casey +2.8%
RealClearPolitics [108] October 21 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.1%46.3%5.6%Casey +1.8%
270toWin [109] October 24 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.4%45.9%5.7%Casey +2.5%
TheHill/DDHQ [110] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.6%46.6%4.8%Casey +2.0%
Average48.3%46.1%5.6%Casey +2.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		Dave
McCormick (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [111] November 3–4, 20241,840 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%2%2%
Survation [112] November 1–4, 2024929 (LV)–49%42%3% [d] 6%
Research Co. [113] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%48%46%2% [e] 4%
Patriot Polling (R) [114] November 1–3, 2024903 (RV)± 3.0%50%49%––
The Trafalgar Group (R) [115] November 1–3, 20241,089 (LV)± 2.9%46%47%–7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [116] November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%2%3%
AtlasIntel [117] November 1–2, 20242,049 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%3% [f] 2%
Emerson College [118] [A] October 30 – November 2, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%–6%
New York Times/Siena College [119] [B] October 29 – November 2, 20241,527 (LV)± 2.9%50%45%–4%
1,527 (RV)± 2.8%50%45%–6%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [120] October 25 – November 2, 2024699 (LV)± 3.6%49%44%1% [g] 6%
726 (RV)± 3.6%48%43%2% [h] 7%
Morning Consult [121] October 23 – November 1, 20241,538 (LV)± 3.0%46%43%–11%
AtlasIntel [122] October 30–31, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.0%49%46%3% [f] 2%
OnMessage (R) [123] October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)–46%46%–8%
Data for Progress (D) [124] October 25–31, 2024908 (LV)± 3.0%49%45%2% [i] 4%
YouGov [125] [C] October 25–31, 2024947 (LV)± 3.5%50%44%–6%
982 (RV)50%43%–6%
ActiVote [126] October 14–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%50.5%49.5%––
Muhlenberg College [127] [D] October 27–30, 2024460 (LV)± 6.0%49%46%3%1%
Suffolk University [128] [E] October 27–30, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%2% [i] 2%
Marist College [129] October 27–30, 20241,400 (LV)± 3.4%50%48%1% [j] 1%
1,558 (RV)± 3.2%50%48%1% [j] 1%
Echelon Insights [130] October 27–30, 2024600 (LV)± 4.5%44%47%3% [k] 5%
The Washington Post [131] October 26–30, 20241,204 (LV)± 3.1%49%46%2% [l] 3%
1,204 (RV)49%45%3% [m] 3%
AtlasIntel [132] October 25–29, 20241,229 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%3% [f] 2%
Fox News [133] October 24–28, 20241,057 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%–1%
1,310 (RV)± 2.5%51%46%1%2%
Quinnipiac University [134] October 24–28, 20242,186 (LV)± 2.1%50%47%2% [n] 1%
Monmouth University [135] October 24–28, 2024824 (RV)± 3.8%45%44%–12%
CNN/SSRS [136] October 23–28, 2024819 (LV)± 4.7%48%45%6% [o] 1%
CBS News/YouGov [137] October 22–28, 20241,249 (LV)± 3.6%48%42%3% [p] 7%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [138] October 26–27, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%47%2% [q] 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [139] [F] October 22–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%42%5% [r] 9%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [140] October 16–23, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%48%42%3% [s] 7%
Emerson College [141] [G] October 21–22, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%47%46%2% [t] 6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [142] October 18–22, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%2% [u] 4%
Franklin & Marshall College [143] October 9–20, 2024583 (LV)± 5.0%49%48%–3%
794 (RV)± 4.3%48%41%5% [v] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [144] October 17–19, 20241,084 (LV)± 2.9%47%47%–6%
AtlasIntel [145] October 12–17, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.0%47%48%2% [w] 3%
The Bullfinch Group [146] October 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%50%43%–8%
YouGov [147] [H] October 7–17, 20241,043 (LV)± 3.44%50%42%–8%
1,062 (RV)± 3.4%49%42%–9%
Morning Consult [121] October 6–15, 20241,395 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%–10%
New York Times/Siena College [148] [B] October 7–10, 2024857 (LV)± 3.8%48%44%–8%
857 (RV)± 3.7%48%43%–9%
American Pulse Research & Polling [149] October 2–10, 20241,193 (LV)± 2.8%48%45%2% [x] 5%
TIPP Insights (R) [150] [F] October 7–9, 2024803 (LV)± 3.5%47%43%1% [y] 9%
1,079 (RV)48%40%1% [z] 12%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [151] October 2–9, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%3% [aa] 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [152] October 7–8, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%45%2% [q] 6%
Emerson College [153] [A] October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%–6%
Research Co. [154] October 5–7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%47%44%1% [ab] 8%
Quinnipiac University [155] October 3–7, 20241,412 (LV)± 2.6%51%43%2% [ac] 5%
ActiVote [156] September 6 – October 7, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%––
OnMessage (R) [157] [ad] September 28–29, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%45%44%5% [ae] 7%
Patriot Polling (R) [158] September 27–29, 2024816 (RV)± 3.0%51%48%––
The Bullfinch Group [159] [I] September 26–29, 2024800 (LV)± 3.46%48%39%12% [af] –
52%42%6% [ag] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) [160] September 26–29, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%47%46%–7%
Emerson College [161] [G] September 27–28, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%–8%
AtlasIntel [162] September 20–25, 20241,775 (LV)± 2.0%47%45%1% [ah] 6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [163] [J] September 19–25, 2024474 (LV)–48%42%3% [ai] 6%
52%45%–3%
Fox News [164] September 20–24, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%53%44%1% [aj] 2%
1,021 (RV)± 3.0%53%44%1% [aj] 2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [165] [K] September 17–24, 2024816 (RV)± 3.0%49%45%–6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [166] September 16–22, 2024700 (LV)± 3.7%48%40%1% [ak] 11%
RMG Research [167] [L] September 18–20, 2024783 (LV)± 3.5%50%44%1% [aj] 5%
Remington Research Group (R) [168] [M] September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%45%–7%
Muhlenberg College [169] [D] September 16–19, 2024450 (LV)± 6.0%48%43%5%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [170] [N] September 16–19, 20241,086 (LV)± 2.8%47%41%2% [al] 10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [171] September 11–19, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%47%38%3% [aa] 13%
Emerson College [172] [A] September 15–18, 2024880 (LV)± 3.2%47%42%–11%
MassINC Polling Group [173] [O] September 12–18, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%49%42%2% [am] 6%
Morning Consult [121] September 9–18, 20241,756 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%–11%
Marist College [174] September 12–17, 20241,663 (RV)± 2.0%52%46%1% [j] 1%
1,476 (LV)± 3.2%52%47%–1%
Quinnipiac University [175] September 12–16, 20241,331 (LV)± 2.7%52%43%1% [an] 3%
The Washington Post [176] September 12–16, 20241,003 (LV)± 3.6%47%46%7% [ao] –
48%48%5% [ap] –
New York Times/Siena College [177] [B] September 11–16, 20241,082 (RV)± 4.1%48%39%–13%
1,082 (LV)± 4.3%49%40%–11%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [178] September 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%44%2% [q] 5%
Franklin & Marshall College [179] September 4–15, 2024890 (RV)± 4.1%48%40%3% [aq] 10%
Suffolk University [180] [E] September 11–14, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%43%2% [ar] 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [181] [N] September 6–9, 2024801 (LV)± 3.0%44%36%5% [as] 14%
Morning Consult [121] August 30 – September 8, 20241,910 (LV)± 2.0%49%40%–11%
co/efficient (R) [182] September 4–6, 2024889 (LV)± 3.29%45%36%–19%
CBS News/YouGov [183] September 3–6, 20241,076 (LV)± 3.4%48%41%3% [at] 8%
YouGov [184] [C] August 23 – September 3, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.6%52%41%–8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [185] August 28–30, 20241,082 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%–8%
CNN/SRSS [186] August 23–29, 2024789 (LV)± 4.7%46%46%7% [au] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [187] [N] August 25–28, 20241,071 (LV)± 2.8%44%38%4% [av] 14%
Emerson College [188] [A] August 25–28, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%48%44%–8%
SoCal Strategies (R) [189] [P] August 23, 2024713 (LV)–47%41%–12%
800 (RV)–45%40%–15%
ActiVote [190] August 3–23, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––
Fabrizio Ward (R) [191] [Q] August 19–21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%43%–11%
Cygnal (R) [192] August 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%–12%
42%38%7% [aw] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [193] [N] August 12–15, 2024825 (LV)± 3.2%44%36%1% [ax] 17%
Emerson College [194] August 13–14, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%–8%
Quinnipiac University [195] August 8–12, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.4%52%44%1% [ay] 3%
The Bullfinch Group [196] [R] August 8–11, 2024500 (RV)± 4.38%51%39%–10%
Franklin & Marshall College [197] July 31 – August 11, 2024920 (RV)± 3.8%48%36%3% [az] 13%
New York Times/Siena College [198] August 6–9, 2024693 (RV)± 4.0%50%36%–14%
693 (LV)± 4.2%51%37%–11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [199] [N] July 31 – August 3, 2024743 (LV)± 3.4%45%40%2% [ba] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [200] [J] July 26 – August 2, 2024411 (LV)–53%40%–7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [201] July 22–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%–11%
Fox News [202] July 22–24, 20241,034 (RV)± 3.0%55%42%–1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [203] [N] July 22–24, 2024851 (LV)± 3.1%46%39%4% [bb] 11%
Emerson College [204] [S] July 22–23, 2024850 (RV)± 3.3%48%44%–8%
SoCal Strategies (R) [205] [T] July 20–21, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%40%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [206] [U] July 17–18, 2024624 (RV)± 3.8%50%39%–11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [207] [N] July 16–18, 2024688 (LV)–44%37%3% [bc] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [208] [V] July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)–47%44%–9%
YouGov [209] [C] July 4–12, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.4%50%38%1%11%
889 (LV)–51%39%1%9%
New York Times/Siena College [210] July 9–11, 2024872 (RV)± 3.7%50%39%–10%
872 (LV)± 3.8%50%42%–8%
Expedition Strategies [211] [W] June 24 – July 8, 2024284 (LV)–48%45%–7%
Remington Research Group (R) [212] [M] June 29 – July 1, 2024673 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%–4%
Cygnal (R) [213] June 27–28, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%42%–12%
The Bullfinch Group [214] [X] June 14–19, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%48%36%–16%
Emerson College [215] [A] June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%41%–12%
Marist College [216] June 3–6, 20241,181 (RV)± 3.6%52%46%–2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [217] May 30–31, 20241,012 (RV)± 3.1%48%40%5%7%
923 (LV)± 3.1%49%42%3%6%
KAConsulting (R) [218] [Y] May 15–19, 2024600 (RV)–47%37%4% [bd] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [219] [J] May 6–13, 2024730 (LV)± 3.6%49%41%–10%
New York Times/Siena College [220] [B] April 28 – May 9, 20241,023 (RV)± 3.6%46%41%–13%
1,023 (LV)± 3.6%46%44%–10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [221] [K] April 24–30, 20241,398 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%–8%
Emerson College [222] [A] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%42%–12%
CBS News/YouGov [223] April 19–25, 20241,306 (LV)± 3.1%46%39%–15%
Muhlenberg College [224] April 15–25, 2024417 (RV)± 6.0%45%41%5%9%
The Bullfinch Group [225] [R] March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%45%38%9%8%
National Public Affairs [226] March 2024759 (LV)± 3.6%32%28%–40%
Franklin & Marshall College [227] March 20–31, 2024431 (RV)± 5.7%46%39%–15%
The Bullfinch Group [228] [X] March 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%47%30%8%15%
Emerson College [229] March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%––
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [230] February 27 – March 7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%48%42%–10%
Emerson College [231] February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%–13%
Chism Strategies [232] February 6–8, 2024500 (RV)± 5.0%38%37%–25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [233] [Z] January 22–25, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%40%–12%
Franklin & Marshall College [234] January 17–28, 20241,006 (RV)± 3.6%47%35%4%14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [235] January 15–21, 2024745 (LV)± 3.7%46%42%3%9%
Quinnipiac University [236] January 4–8, 20241,680 (RV)± 2.4%53%43%1% [aj] 2%
The Bullfinch Group [237] [X] December 8–12, 2023800 (RV)± 3.5%42%27%13% [be] 20%
Change Research (D) [238] [AA] December 3–7, 20232,532 (RV)± 3.5%44%41%0%15%
Franklin & Marshall College [239] October 11–22, 2023873 (RV)± 4.1%46%39%4%12%
Emerson College [240] October 1–4, 2023430 (RV)± 4.7%41%33%8%18%
Quinnipiac University [241] September 28 – October 2, 20231,725 (RV)± 2.4%50%44%2% [bf] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [242] May 2–8, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%53%41%1%5%
Cygnal (R) [243] April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%0%13%
Franklin & Marshall College [244] March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 6.6%42%35%–23%
Hypothetical polling

Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		Doug
Mastriano (R)		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College [244] March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 3.7%47%31%22%
Cygnal (R) [243] April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%49%39%12%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania [245]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Dave McCormick 3,399,295 48.82% +6.20%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)3,384,18048.60%−7.14%
Libertarian John Thomas89,6531.29%+0.27%
Green Leila Hazou66,3880.95%+0.33%
Constitution Marty Selker23,6210.34%N/A
Total votes6,963,137 100.0%
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county

County [246] Dave McCormick
Republican		Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Adams 38,50563.88%19,94733.09%1,8243.03%18,55630.79%60,276
Allegheny 272,86138.112%425,28059.404%17,7812.484%-152,419-21.290%715,922
Armstrong 26,65372.14%9,13624.73%1,1553.13%17,51747.42%36,944
Beaver 53,59356.56%38,52940.66%2,6352.78%15,06415.90%94,757
Bedford 22,85581.50%4,62416.49%5642.01%18,23165.01%28,043
Berks 108,05853.06%89,06345.74%6,5213.20%18,9959.33%203,642
Blair 44,74169.13%18,44528.50%1,5372.37%26,29640.63%64,723
Bradford 22,09971.50%8,00725.90%8042.60%14,09245.59%30,910
Bucks 194,20348.57%196,44449.13%9,1862.30%−2,241-0.56%399,833
Butler 77,32863.925%40,97333.871%2,6662.204%36,35530.054%120,967
Cambria 46,48265.464%22,88732.243%1,6352.303%23,59533.231%71,004
Cameron 1,55870.37%58026.20%763.43%97844.17%2,214
Carbon 22,603 64.45%11,57032.99%8982.56%11,03331.46%35,071
Centre 38,05447.32%40,382 50.22% 1,9792.46%-2,328-2.89%80,415
Chester 138,27142.60% 178,765 55.07% 7,5512.33%-40,494−12.65%324,587
Clarion 14,179 72.06% 4,68323.80%8154.14%9,49648.26%19,677
Clearfield 29,063 72.27% 10,11125.14%1,0382.58%18,95247.13%40,212
Clinton 12,250 66.403% 5,72231.017%4762.580%6,52835.386%18,448
Columbia 20,617 63.63% 10,96933.85%8142.51%9,64829.78%32,400
Crawford 28,234 63.10% 13,37031.30%1,1102.60%14,86431.80%42,714
Cumberland 78,178 53.037% 64,71343.902%4,5123.061%13,4659.135%147,403
Dauphin 66,94944.945% 77,022 51.708% 4,9853.347%−10,073-6.763%148,956
Delaware 121,48237.212% 197,424 60.475% 7,5512.313%−75,942-23.263%326,457
Elk 11,939 69.749% 4,67928.335%4992.916%7,26042.414%17,117
Erie 65,60347.94% 67,868 49.60% 3,3712.46%−2,265-1.66%136,842
Fayette 40,804 64.82% 20,75232.97%1,3892.21%20,05231.86%62,945
Forest 1,808 68.25% 74127.97%1003.78%1,06740.28%2,649
Franklin 57,217 68.836% 23,59128.381%2,3132.783%33,62640.455%83,121
Fulton 6,773 83.45% 1,19714.75%1461.80%5,57668.70%8,116
Greene 11,643 67.91% 5,07529.60%4272.49%6,56838.31%17,145
Huntingdon 16,910 74.43% 5,58224.24%9864.28%11,32849.19%23,028
Indiana 27,881 66.28% 13,18131.33%1,0062.39%14,70034.94%42,068
Jefferson 17,618 76.34% 4,83420.95%6262.71%12,78455.39%23,078
Juniata 9,252 76.824% 2,47820.576%3132.600%6,77456.248%12,043
Lackawanna 51,94444.82% 61,653 53.20% 2,2891.98%−9,709−8.38%115,886
Lancaster 162,105 56.218% 118,58041.123%7,6682.659%43,52515.095%288,353
Lawrence 29,405 62.842% 16,17634.570%1,2112.588%13,22928.272%46,792
Lebanon 46,172 63.13% 24,74533.83%2,2223.04%21,42729.30%73,139
Lehigh 87,14746.458% 94,875 50.577% 5,5622.965%−7,728−4.119%187,584
Luzerne 87,048 56.166% 64,49541.614%3,4422.221%22,55314.552%154,985
Lycoming 40,672 68.36% 17,35429.17%1,4722.47%23,31839.19%59,498
McKean 13,799 70.51% 5,23126.73%5412 47%8,56843.78%19,571
Mercer 36,468 62.78% 20,30234.95%1,3182.27%16,16627.83%58,088
Mifflin 16,413 74.79% 4,99122.74%5422.47%11,42252.05%21,946
Monroe 40,88448.07% 41,712 49.04% 2,4552.89%−828-0.97%85,051
Montgomery 196,42237.78% 311,859 59.98% 11,6872.25%−115,437−22.20%519,968
Montour 5,847 59.060% 3,81338.515%2402.425%2,03420.545%9,900
Northampton 85,787 49.13% 84,76248.54%4,0662.33%1,0250.59%174,615
Northumberland 28,706 66.305% 13,43231.025%1,1562.670%15,27435.280%43,294
Perry 18,355 71.476% 6,47025.195%8553.329%11,88546.281%25,680
Philadelphia 129,09818.70% 541,567 78.45% 19,6512.85%−412,469-59.75%690,316
Pike 20,869 60.30% 6,47037.30%8312.40%7,96023.00%34,609
Potter 7,109 78.51% 1,69518.72%2512.77%5,41459.79%9,055
Schuylkill 48,55366.66%22,22430.51%2,0632.83%26,32936.15%72,840
Snyder 14,21171.243%5,30926.616%4272.141%8.90244.628%19,947
Somerset 30,66775.135%9,05929.195%1,0902.671%21,60852.940%40,816
Sullivan 2,61270.31%1,02127.48%822.21%1,59123.83%3,715
Susquehanna 15,54569.97%6,12927.59%5422.44%6,67130.28%22,216
Tioga 15,77873.62%5,06623.64%5882.74%10,71249.98%21,432
Union 12,74760.49%7,87237.36%4532.15%4,87523.13%21,072
Venango 17,82966.9181%7,87229.6926%5973.3893%4,87518.2975%26,643
Warren 13,65566.07%6,41531.04%9032.89%7,24035.03%20,667
Washington 71,79859.61%45,92638.13%2,7172.56%25,87221.48%120,441
Wayne 19,33165.897%9,38531.993%6192.110%9,94633.904%29,335
Westmoreland 128,04062.2816%45,92636.3765%4,8932.3419%52,03624.9051%208,937
Wyoming 9,91966.043%4,75031.627%3502.330%5,16921.416%15,019
York 148,09859.7343%91,77937.0184%8,0513.2473%56,31922.7159%247,928
Totals3,399,29548.82%3,384,18048.60%179,6622.58%15,1150.22%6,963,137
Pennsylvania counties 2018-2024 senate shift.svg
Pennsylvania counties 2018-2024 senate trend.svg

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McCormick won 9 of 17 congressional districts, with the remaining eight going to Casey, including one that elected a Republican. [247] [248]

DistrictCasey Jr.McCormickRepresentative
1st Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd Brendan Boyle
3rd Dwight Evans
4th Madeleine Dean
5th Mary Gay Scanlon
6th Chrissy Houlahan
7th 48%50% Susan Wild (118th Congress)
Ryan Mackenzie (119th Congress)
8th 46%51% Matt Cartwright (118th Congress)
Rob Bresnahan (119th Congress)
9th Dan Meuser
10th Scott Perry
11th Lloyd Smucker
12th Summer Lee
13th John Joyce
14th Guy Reschenthaler
15th Glenn Thompson
16th Mike Kelly
17th Chris Deluzio

Analysis

In Pennsylvania, a statewide recount is triggered under state law if the margin falls within 0.5% of the total vote. Preliminary results for the election reached this threshold on November 13, 2024, with McCormick at 48.9% leading Casey's 48.5%, as outstanding ballots continued to be counted across the state. Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt officially ordered the recount later that evening, with Casey declining to concede. [249] The deadline for the counties to begin their recounts is on November 20, the third Wednesday after the election according to state law, however, counties can start their recounts as early as November 18, with all counties required to submit their results to the Department of State by noon on November 26 as the results must be reported by the Secretary of the Commonwealth by noon on November 27. [250] Additionally, the counties must use different machines for the recount than were used on Election Day. [251]

On Monday, November 18, following a series of challenges and disputes, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed all of the state's county election officials not to count certain mail-in ballots which arrived on time yet lacked a correct handwritten date on the return envelope. [252] [253]

The last instance of a statewide recount being held was for the 2022 Republican primary for Pennsylvania's Class 3 Senate seat, of which McCormick was also a candidate. Conversely to his stance in the 2024 general election, he unsuccessfully sued to have undated mail-in ballots counted. After completion of the recount he would concede to Mehmet Oz, with the final results expanding Oz's margin by 49 votes. [254]

Analysis

McCormick certainly benefitted from the presence of former President Donald Trump on the ballot, who carried the state over Vice President Harris by just over 120,000 votes (for a margin of roughly 1.7%) in the concurrent presidential election. Indeed, McCormick cleared 60% in most counties in the state’s less-populated interior and even 70% in many.

Unlike with Ohio and Montana, however, McCormick had to seek support beyond the Trump base as he was running in a swing state. Casey and Trump both won Bucks, Erie, and Monroe Counties. McCormick campaigned with Nikki Haley in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, aiming to appeal to voters uneasy about Trump by positioning himself as a more establishment candidate. Casey aired ads in late October to highlight his votes with the Trump administration, while McCormick tied Casey to Harris, highlighting his votes with the Biden administration. However, both candidates received fewer votes than their respective parties’ presidential candidate in the concurrent 2024 presidential election. Senator McCormick received about 144,000 fewer votes than President Trump, while Senator Casey received almost 39,000 fewer votes than Vice President Harris. [255] [256] [257]

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ $4,263,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  5. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  6. 1 2 3 "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  7. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%
  8. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. 1 2 Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
  10. 1 2 3 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ↑ Hazou (G) with 2%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  12. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  14. ↑ "Refused" with 2%
  15. ↑ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
  16. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. 1 2 3 "Other" with 2%
  18. ↑ Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ↑ Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ↑ "Refuse" with 2%
  22. ↑ "Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
  23. ↑ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  25. ↑ "Other" with 1%
  26. ↑ "Other" with 1%
  27. 1 2 Hazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  28. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  29. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  30. ↑ Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
  31. ↑ "Other" with 5%
  32. ↑ "None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ↑ Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
  34. ↑ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  35. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  36. 1 2 3 4 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  37. ↑ "Other" with 1%
  38. ↑ Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  39. ↑ "Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
  40. ↑ "Refused" with 1%
  41. ↑ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
  42. ↑ "No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
  43. ↑ "Other" with 3%
  44. ↑ Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  45. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  46. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  47. ↑ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  48. ↑ Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  49. ↑ Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  50. ↑ Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  51. ↑ "Refused" with 1%
  52. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  53. ↑ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  54. ↑ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  55. ↑ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  56. ↑ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  57. ↑ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  58. ↑ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  2. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  3. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Morning Call
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by USA Today
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. 1 2 Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  8. ↑ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  9. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
  10. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  11. 1 2 Poll commissioned by AARP
  12. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  13. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  15. ↑ Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
  16. ↑ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  17. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  18. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  19. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  20. ↑ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  21. ↑ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  22. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  23. ↑ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  25. ↑ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  26. ↑ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  27. ↑ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

References

  1. ↑ Katie Glueck (November 21, 2024). "David McCormick Defeats Senator Bob Casey in Pennsylvania". New York Times.
  2. ↑ Kane, Paul (December 14, 2024). "Why Bob Casey couldn't overcome the 'Trump wave' in Pennsylvania". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 14, 2024. The three-term senator lost amid Trump's grip on rural voters and sagging turnout around metropolitan areas like Philadelphia.
  3. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Archived from the original on August 17, 2023. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  4. ↑ "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024". CNN . July 20, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Republican David McCormick flips pivotal Pennsylvania Senate seat, ousts Bob Casey". AP News. November 7, 2024. Retrieved November 10, 2024.
  6. ↑ "2024 Senate General Election Results | DDHQ". decisiondeskhq.com. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  7. ↑ Emily Rose Grassi (March 3, 2024). "Pa. Senator Bob Casey concedes to Dave McCormick". NBC News.
  8. ↑ Cohen, Ethan; Hudspeth Blackburn, Piper; Rimmer, Morgan; Pathe, Simone; Krieg, Gregory (November 13, 2024). "Senate race in Pennsylvania heads to a recount". CNN Politics. Archived from the original on November 14, 2024. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  9. ↑ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". CNN . Archived from the original on October 8, 2024. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  10. ↑ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022". CNN . Archived from the original on October 7, 2024. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  11. ↑ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox . Archived from the original on September 29, 2023. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
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  19. ↑ Cole, John (March 6, 2024). "Pennsylvania GOP U.S. Senate candidate McCormick endorses Trump for president". Pennsylvania-Capital Star . Retrieved March 7, 2024. Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.
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  21. 1 2 3 Kail, Benjamin (April 30, 2023). "Sen. Bob Casey is starting his 2024 Senate campaign with a big head start". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette . Retrieved May 1, 2023.
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  23. ↑ A. O. L. Staff (May 17, 2024). "Whitmer's Fight Like Hell PAC releases initial Senate endorsements". www.aol.com. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  24. ↑ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  25. 1 2 "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Bob Casey Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
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  27. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Archived from the original on August 27, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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  29. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Archived from the original on September 6, 2023. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
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  31. ↑ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Reelection". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  32. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Archived from the original on April 11, 2023. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  33. ↑ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to the US Senate". Giffords. November 14, 2023. Archived from the original on November 16, 2023. Retrieved October 15, 2023.
  34. ↑ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Archived from the original on April 10, 2024. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  35. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey for Reelection". Human Rights Campaign. August 14, 2024. Retrieved August 14, 2024.
  36. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Archived from the original on January 21, 2024. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  37. ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  38. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  39. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on July 27, 2023. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  40. ↑ "National Social Security Advocacy Group Endorses Senator Bob Casey for Re-Election". National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare (Press release). April 12, 2024. Retrieved April 12, 2024.
  41. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
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  43. ↑ "PSEA recommends U.S. Sen. Bob Casey for reelection". Pennsylvania State Education Association. January 18, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2024.
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  54. 1 2 3 "2024 Election United States Senate - Pennsylvania". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on July 18, 2024. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  55. 1 2 "2024 Presidential Primary Official Results - United States Senator". Pennsylvania Department of State. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved May 4, 2024.
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  57. ↑ Cole, John (March 8, 2024). "Three candidates for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat remain on ballot following petition challenges". Pennsylvania Capital-Star . Archived from the original on March 9, 2024. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
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  60. ↑ "A well-liked incumbent stands in the way of Republicans retaking the Pennsylvania Senate seat". May 25, 2023.
  61. ↑ Cruz, Abby; McDuffie, Will (September 15, 2023). "Republican who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz expected to run again for Senate". ABC News. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
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  256. ↑ Walsh, Sean Collins (November 9, 2024). "Trump, messaging, and money: How Dave McCormick unseated Bob Casey in Pennsylvania's Senate race". www.inquirer.com. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  257. ↑ Walsh, Sean Collins (November 9, 2024). "Haley campaigns for McCormick in Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs". www.penncapital-star.com. Retrieved December 2, 2024.

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