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Elections in Pennsylvania |
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Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. is seeking a fourth term. [1] He is being challenged by Republican businessman David McCormick. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024. [2] The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. [3]
Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016. [4] [5] [6] [7]
Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of 2018 by 13 percentage points. [8] [9] [10]
The race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Casey to be the slight favorite to win. [11]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) | $23,790,263 | $12,391,802 | $11,886,480 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [49] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | 1,024,545 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 1,024,545 | 100.00% |
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Dave McCormick (R) | $11,052,879 | $4,660,701 | $6,399,998 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [49] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Kathy Barnette | Doug Mastriano | David McCormick | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) | March 9–10, 2023 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
– | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | David McCormick | 878,320 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 878,320 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [84] | Lean D | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [85] | Tilt D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [86] | Lean D | June 13, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [87] | Lean D | June 8, 2024 |
Elections Daily [88] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [89] | Lean D | November 21, 2023 |
RealClearPolitics [90] | Tossup | August 5, 2024 |
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Bob Casey (D) | $31,831,903 | $23,893,851 | $8,426,069 |
David McCormick (R) | $18,063,787 [lower-alpha 2] | $9,799,118 | $8,272,490 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [49] |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||||
Casey | McCormick | ||||||||
1 | October 3, 2024 | WHTM-TV | Dennis Owens | I | I |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | David McCormick (R) | Undecided [lower-alpha 3] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP | August 23 - September 18, 2024 | September 20, 2024 | 48.4% | 43.9% | 7.7% | Casey Jr. +4.5 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | David McCormick (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | September 15–18, 2024 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
MassINC Polling Group [upper-alpha 2] | September 12–18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 2% [lower-alpha 4] | 6% |
Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 1,756 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
Marist College | September 12–17, 2024 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 46% | 1% [lower-alpha 5] | 1% |
1,476 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% | ||
Quinnipiac University | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 43% | 1% [lower-alpha 6] | 3% |
The Washington Post | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,003 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 46% | 7% [lower-alpha 7] | – |
48% | 48% | 5% [lower-alpha 8] | – | ||||
NYT/Siena College [upper-alpha 3] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
1,082 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | 2% [lower-alpha 9] | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College | September 4–15, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 40% | 3% [lower-alpha 10] | 10% |
Suffolk University [upper-alpha 4] | September 11–14, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | 2% [lower-alpha 11] | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 5] | September 6–9, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.02% | 44% | 36% | 5% [lower-alpha 12] | 14% |
Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,910 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
co/efficient | September 4–6, 2024 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.29% | 45% | 36% | – | 19% |
CBS News/YouGov | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 3% [lower-alpha 13] | 8% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 6] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 41% | – | 8% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 8% |
CNN/SRSS | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 46% | 46% | 7% [lower-alpha 14] | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 5] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 38% | 4% [lower-alpha 15] | 14% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
SoCal Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 7] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
800 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | – | 15% | ||
ActiVote | August 3-23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
Fabrizio Ward [upper-alpha 8] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
Cygnal (R) | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
42% | 38% | 7% [lower-alpha 16] | 13% | ||||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 5] | August 12–15, 2024 | 825 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 44% | 36% | 1% [lower-alpha 17] | 17% |
Emerson College | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 44% | 1% [lower-alpha 18] | 3% |
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 9] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
Franklin & Marshall College | July 21 – August 11, 2024 | 920 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 3% [lower-alpha 19] | 13% |
NYT/Siena College | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 36% | – | 14% |
693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 37% | – | 11% | ||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 5] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.38% | 45% | 40% | 2% [lower-alpha 20] | 12% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 10] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 53% | 40% | – | 7% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) | July 22–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
Fox News | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 42% | – | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 5] | July 22–24, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 3.08% | 46% | 39% | 4% [lower-alpha 21] | 11% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 11] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
SoCal Research (R) [upper-alpha 12] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 13] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [upper-alpha 5] | July 16–18, 2024 | 688 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 3% [lower-alpha 22] | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 14] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 6] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 38% | 1% | 11% |
889 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 1% | 9% | ||
NYT/Siena College | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | – | 10% |
872 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
Remington Research Group (R) [upper-alpha 15] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | – | 49% | 48% | – | 3% |
Cygnal (R) | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 16] | June 14–19, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 36% | – | 16% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Marist College | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,181 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 46% | – | 2% |
Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 40% | 5% | 7% |
923 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% | ||
KAConsulting (R) [upper-alpha 17] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 47% | 37% | 4% [lower-alpha 23] | 12% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 10] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
NYT/Siena College [upper-alpha 3] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
1,023 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | ||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 18] | April 24–30, 2024 | 1,398 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,306 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
Muhlenberg College | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 45% | 41% | 5% | 9% |
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 9] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 9% | 8% |
National Public Affairs | March 2024 | 759 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 28% | – | 40% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 20–31, 2024 | 431 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 16] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 30% | 8% | 15% |
Emerson College | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
Emerson College | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | – | 13% |
Chism Strategies | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 37% | – | 25% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 19] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – | 12% |
Franklin & Marshall College | January 17–28, 2023 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 9% |
Quinnipiac University | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 53% | 43% | 1% [lower-alpha 24] | 2% |
Common Ground (R) [upper-alpha 16] | December 8–12, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 27% | 13% [lower-alpha 25] | 20% |
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 20] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 0% | 15% |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 39% | 4% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 41% | 33% | 8% | 18% |
Quinnipiac University | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 44% | 2% [lower-alpha 26] | 4% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 0% | 13% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | Doug Mastriano (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | David McCormick | ||||
Libertarian | John Thomas | ||||
Green | Leila Hazou | ||||
Constitution | Bernard Selker | ||||
Total votes |
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: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)Casey will be the only Democrat on the primary ballot for U.S. Senate after a successful objection against William Parker's nomination petitions removed him from the ballot.