2024 United States Senate election in Virginia

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia.svg
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  Tim Kaine 116th official portrait (cropped).jpg Hung Cao, 2022.jpg
Nominee Tim Kaine Hung Cao
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,417,1152,019,911
Percentage54.37%45.44%
2024 United States Senate election in Virginia results map by county.svg
Virginia 2024 Senate CD.svg
Virginia Senate 2024 by Precinct.svg
Kaine:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Cao:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Tim Kaine
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican former U.S. Navy captain Hung Cao. [1] [2] Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024. [3]

Contents

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections. [4] [5] [6]

Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points. [7] [8] Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Virginia since 2002.

This race was considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates. [9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Tim Kaine (D)$14,583,509$8,488,125$8,615,046
Source: Federal Election Commission [25]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Hung Cao

U.S. Presidents

Governors

Individuals

Jonathan Emord

U.S. representatives

Scott Parkinson

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Chuck Smith

State legislators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Hung Cao (R)$2,508,562$2,398,405$202,637
Jonathan Emord (R)$932,828 [a] $897,923$34,905
Eddie Garcia (R)$340,558$315,309$25,249
Scott Parkinson (R)$930,240$601,089$329,151
Chuck Smith (R)$556,762$536,262$20,499
Source: Federal Election Commission [25]

Results

Results by county and independent city: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Cao 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Garcia 30-40% 2024 United States Senate Republican primary in Virginia results map by county.svg
Results by county and independent city:
  Cao
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Garcia
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results [41]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Hung Cao 168,868 61.79%
Republican Scott Parkinson29,94010.95%
Republican Eddie Garcia26,7779.80%
Republican Chuck Smith24,1088.82%
Republican Jonathan Emord23,6148.64%
Total votes273,307 100.00%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [42] Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Elections Daily [43] Solid DAugust 9, 2024
Inside Elections [44] Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [45] Safe DNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [46] Likely DAugust 26, 2024
CNalysis [47] Solid DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [48] Likely DAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [49] Likely DOctober 23, 2024
538 [50] Likely DNovember 2, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Tim Kaine (D)

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Newspapers

Hung Cao

Statewide Officials

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Tim Kaine (D)$15,990,927$10,698,945$7,811,645
Hung Cao (R)$3,051,361$2,729,334$414,508
Source: Federal Election Commission [25]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Tim
Kaine (D)		Hung
Cao (R)		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight [58] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202451.9%41.2%6.9%Kaine +10.7%
RealClearPolitics [59] October 19 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202452.0%41.2%6.8%Kaine +10.8%
270toWin [60] October 26 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202451.2%41.8%7.0%Kaine +9.4%
TheHill/DDHQ [61] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202452.2%42.4%6.4%Kaine +9.8%
Average51.8%41.6%6.6%Kaine +10.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Tim
Kaine (D)		Hung
Cao (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [62] November 1–4, 20242,202 (LV)± 2.0%53%44%1% [d] 2%
Research Co. [63] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%53%41%–6%
Chism Strategies [64] October 28–30, 2024520 (LV)± 4.3%46%45%–9%
Cygnal (R) [65] October 27–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%42%–7%
Roanoke College [66] October 25–29, 2024851 (LV)± 4.6%51%40%3% [e] 6%
ActiVote [67] October 2–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––
The Washington Post/
George Mason University [68] 		October 19–23, 20241,004 (LV)± 3.5%54%41%1% [f] 4%
1,004 (RV)± 3.5%54%40%1% [f] 5%
ActiVote [69] September 9 – October 14, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%––
Christopher Newport University [70] September 28 – October 4, 2024800 (LV)± 4.4%55%35%5% [g] 5%
Emerson College [71] [A] September 22–24, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%51%41%2%6%
Research America [72] [B] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.0%45%38%8% [h] 9%
756 (LV)± 3.5%49%43%2%6%
The Washington Post/
George Mason University [73] 		September 4–8, 20241,005 (RV)± 3.5%53%41%1% [f] 5%
1,005 (LV)± 3.5%53%41%–5%
ActiVote [74] July 24 – September 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––
Roanoke College [75] August 12–16, 2024691 (LV)± 4.5%49%38%10% [i] 3%
Emerson College [76] [C] July 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%4% [j] 8%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [77] July 14–15, 2024301 (A)± 3.2%42%33%5% [k] 20%
265 (LV)± 3.2%44%34%4% [l] 19%
July 12–13, 2024617 (A)± 3.2%45%32%7% [m] 15%
544 (LV)± 3.2%47%34%6% [n] 13%
NYT/Siena College [78] July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%52%34%–14%
661 (LV)± 4.4%52%36%–12%
Virginia Commonwealth University [79] June 24 – July 3, 2024809 (A)± 4.8%49%38%14% [o] –
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D) [80] [D] 		April 26–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%48%36%1%16%
Hypothetical polling

Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Tim
Kaine (D)		Glenn
Youngkin (R)		OtherUndecided
Virginia Commonwealth University [81] July 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.46%47%42%3% [p] 7%
University of Mary Washington [82] September 6–12, 20221,000 (A)± 3.1%41%39%10% [q] 10%

Debates

2024 Virginia U.S. Senate election debate
No.DateHostModeratorsLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
KaineCao
1Oct. 2, 2024 NSU Tom Schaad & Deanna Allbrittin [83] YouTube PP

Results

State Senate district results VA Sen 24 by Virginia State Senate District.svg
State Senate district results
State House of Delegates district results VirginiaStateHouse Senate 24.svg
State House of Delegates district results
United States Senate election in Virginia, 2024 [84]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tim Kaine (incumbent) 2,417,115 54.37% −2.63%
Republican Hung Cao2,019,91145.44%+4.43%
Write-in 8,5090.19%+0.04%
Total votes4,445,535 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kaine won 7 of 11 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. [85]

DistrictKaineCaoRepresentative
1st 48.17%51.72% Rob Wittman
2nd 51.24%48.65% Jen Kiggans
3rd 68.86%31.01% Bobby Scott
4th 67.77%32.07% Jennifer McClellan
5th 45.04%54.82% Bob Good (118th Congress
John McGuire (119th Congress
6th 40.96%59.49% Ben Cline
7th 53.29%46.49% Abigail Spanberger (118th Congress
Eugene Vindman (119th Congress
8th 74.61%25.09% Don Beyer
9th 32.92%66.94% Morgan Griffith
10th 54.77%44.93% Jennifer Wexton (118th Congress
Suhas Subramanyam (119th Congress
11th 67.26%32.40% Gerry Connolly

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ $528,167 of this total was self-funded by Emord
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ↑ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  5. ↑ "Refused" with 2%; "Some other candidate" with 1%
  6. 1 2 3 "Would not vote" with 1%
  7. ↑ "Refused" with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ↑ "None/Wouldn't Vote" with 5%
  9. ↑ "Someone else" with 10%
  10. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  11. ↑ "Another party" with 5%
  12. ↑ "Another party" with 4%
  13. ↑ "Another party" with 7%
  14. ↑ "Another party" with 6%
  15. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 8%; "Someone else" with 6%
  16. ↑ None/Would not vote with 2%, other with 1%
  17. ↑ None/Would not vote with 5%, other with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by University of Mary Washington
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines

References

  1. ↑ Salamy, Elissa (November 5, 2024). "Kaine wins re-election for Virginia Senate". Fox 5 Washington D.C. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  2. ↑ Manchester, Julia (November 5, 2024). "Tim Kaine wins reelection in Virginia". The Hill. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  3. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  5. ↑ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. ↑ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  7. ↑ "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  9. 1 2 Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term" . The Washington Post . Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  10. 1 2 "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine for Reelection". Giffords. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
  11. 1 2 "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  12. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  13. ↑ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  14. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  16. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  18. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  19. ↑ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". LGBT+ Democrats of Virginia. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  20. ↑ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Advocacy Group Endorses Sen. Tim Kaine for Re-Election". NCPSSM. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  21. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  22. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  23. ↑ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  24. ↑ "Virginia - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  25. 1 2 3 "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  26. ↑ Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
  27. ↑ Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  28. ↑ Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News . Archived from the original on January 20, 2023. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
  29. ↑ Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot. Archived from the original on April 3, 2023.
  30. ↑ Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine" . Richmond Times-Dispatch . Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  31. ↑ Iannelli, Nick (May 27, 2024). "Republican US Senate candidate in Virginia 'honored' to receive Trump endorsement". WTOP . Retrieved May 27, 2024.
  32. ↑ "Bob McDonnell endorses Hung Cao for Senate". May 16, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
  33. ↑ "A true patriot's endosement". PoliticalEmails. Archived from the original on February 23, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  34. 1 2 "U.S. Senate Candidate Jonathan Emord Receives the Endorsements of Ron Paul and Barry Goldwater, Jr". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  35. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Johnson, Julia (May 2023). "Tim Kaine GOP challenger holds fundraiser with Trump and DeSantis supporters alike". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  36. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Hazard, Charlotte. "Ex-DeSantis Hill staffer runs for U.S. Senate, says pandemic was his call for change". Just the News. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  37. 1 2 Shipley, Jonathan (May 31, 2023). "Former Baraboo resident eyes Virginia Senate". News Republic. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  38. ↑ Martz, Michael (February 2, 2024). "Here's how much money Sen. Tim Kaine has raised in bid for new term". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  39. 1 2 "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  40. ↑ Cantor, Dave (March 20, 2024). "These are the GOP candidates hoping to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". VPM. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
  41. ↑ "June 18, 2024 Republican Party Primary Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections.
  42. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  43. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  44. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  45. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  46. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  47. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  48. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  49. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  50. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
  51. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (October 16, 2024). "Former GOP Rep. Riggleman endorses Democratic Sen. Kaine of Virginia". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 16, 2024.
  52. ↑ "CASA in Action Announces Its 2024 Virginia General Election Endorsements". CASA in Action (Press release). August 23, 2024. Retrieved September 1, 2024.
  53. ↑ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
  54. ↑ "Opinion | The Post endorses Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate in Virginia". The Washington Post. September 23, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  55. ↑ "Congratulations @hungcaova! Hung Cao will make a great Senator for Virginia and I am proud to endorse him - let's take back the U.S. Senate!". June 18, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
  56. ↑ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". logcabin.org. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
  57. ↑ "National Federation of Independent Business endorses Hung Cao for U.S Senate" . Retrieved November 28, 2024.
  58. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  59. ↑ RealClearPolitics
  60. ↑ 270toWin
  61. ↑ TheHill/DDHQ
  62. ↑ AtlasIntel
  63. ↑ Research Co.
  64. ↑ Chism Strategies
  65. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  66. ↑ Roanoke College
  67. ↑ ActiVote
  68. ↑ The Washington Post/
    George Mason University
  69. ↑ ActiVote
  70. ↑ Christopher Newport University
  71. ↑ Emerson College
  72. ↑ Research America
  73. ↑ The Washington Post/
    George Mason University
  74. ↑ ActiVote
  75. ↑ Roanoke College
  76. ↑ Emerson College
  77. ↑ Mainstreet Research/FAU
  78. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  79. ↑ Virginia Commonwealth University
  80. ↑ Fabrizio Ward (R)/
    Impact Research (D)
  81. ↑ Virginia Commonwealth University
  82. ↑ University of Mary Washington
  83. ↑ Alvarez-Wertz, Jane (October 2, 2024). "Rules for the Virginia Senate Debate". WAVY TV 10. Archived from the original on October 3, 2024. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
  84. ↑ "2024 November General Official Results". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved December 16, 2024.
  85. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13OwY9FYKHM72i5DDMG_cNxz7pYoDPFjCQD1T44-D_hA/htmlview#

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