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| Elections in Virginia |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections will take place on June 18, 2024. [1]
Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections. [2] [3] [4]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points. [5] [6]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates. [7]
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $10,498,932 | $5,276,107 | $7,742,487 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [21] | |||
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Hung Cao (R) | $1,224,911 | $789,111 | $528,280 |
| Johnathan Emord (R) | $727,297 [lower-alpha 1] | $703,320 | $23,977 |
| Eddie Garcia (R) | $248,608 | $235,719 | $12,889 |
| Gwen Hickman (R) [lower-alpha 2] | $23,710 | $16,666 | $7,043 |
| Kimberly Lowe (R) | $32,436 | $32,436 | $0 |
| Scott Parkinson (R) | $661,244 | $230,368 | $430,876 |
| Chuck Smith (R) | $409,513 | $359,249 | $50,264 |
| Ron Vitiello (R) | $406,347 [lower-alpha 3] | $314,605 | $91,741 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [21] | |||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Hung Cao | |||
| Republican | Jonathan Emord | |||
| Republican | Eddie Garcia | |||
| Republican | Scott Parkinson | |||
| Republican | Chuck Smith | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [35] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily [36] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
| Inside Elections [37] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [38] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| CNalysis [39] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 4] | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Glenn Youngkin (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14-25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3% [lower-alpha 5] | 7% |
| University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10% [lower-alpha 6] | 10% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | ||||
| Republican | TBD | ||||
| Total votes | 100.00% | ||||
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