2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana

Last updated

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana
Flag of Montana.svg
←  2022 November 5, 20242026 →
Both Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election20
Seats won20
Seat changeSteady2.svgSteady2.svg
Popular vote350,361237,496
Percentage58.61%39.73%
SwingIncrease2.svg 5.75%Increase2.svg 5.49%
Montana 2024 Congressional Results Party Performance.svg

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.

Contents

District 1

2024 Montana's 1st congressional district election
Flag of Montana.svg
←  2022
2026 →
  Rep. Ryan Zinke official photo, 118th Congress (cropped).jpg Monica Tranel on Vlogbrothers (cropped).jpg
Nominee Ryan Zinke Monica Tranel
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote168,529143,783
Percentage52.3%44.6%
2024 MT-01 election results.svg
2024 MT-01 election results by precinct.svg
Zinke:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tranel:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
     No Votes
U.S. Representative before election

Ryan Zinke
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ryan Zinke
Republican

The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Kalispell, Bozeman and Butte. The incumbent is Republican Ryan Zinke, who was elected with 49.7% of the vote in 2022. [1] He initially had expressed interest in running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but chose not to do so. [2]

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Mary Todd, innkeeper and candidate for this district in 2022 [4]

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mary Todd (R)$87,253 [a] $67,177$20,075
Ryan Zinke (R)$5,752,008$3,341,562$2,520,494
Source: Federal Election Commission [9]

Results

2024 Republican Primary for U.S. Representative of Montana's 1st Congressional District [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ryan Zinke (incumbent) 66,409 73.74
Republican Mary Todd23,64726.26
Total votes90,056 100.0

Democratic primary

Nominee

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Monica Tranel (D)$2,340,724$826,277$1,524,332
Source: Federal Election Commission [9]

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Monica Tranel 59,806 100.0
Total votes59,806 100.0

Libertarian primary

Nominee

  • Dennis Hayes, remodeling contractor [4]

Eliminated in primary

  • Ernie Noble, construction worker [4]

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Dennis Hayes 390 65.4
Libertarian Ernie Noble20634.6
Total votes596 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [26] Lean ROctober 4, 2024
Inside Elections [27] Lean RSeptember 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [28] Lean RFebruary 23, 2023
Elections Daily [29] Lean RSeptember 7, 2023
CNalysis [30] Lean RNovember 16, 2023

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Ryan
Zinke (R)		Monica
Tranel (D)		Dennis
Hayes (L)		Undecided
Impact Research (D) [31] [A] October 14–17, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%46%45%4%5%
Guidance Polling and Strategy [32] [B] October 13–16, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%44%–4%
Montana State University [33] September 30 – October 16, 2024(A)–44%37%4%15%
Noble Predictive Insights [34] [C] September 11–14, 2024432 (LV)± 4.7%49%44%–7%
47%43%3%7%
DCCC (D) [35] September 11–13, 2024864 (LV)± 3.3%46%45%–9% [c]
Impact Research (D) [36] [A] August 26–29, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%46%44%4%5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D) [37] [D] 		August 25–29, 2024310 (LV)–49%43%–8%
Impact Research (D) [36] [A] May 2024––46%42%6%6%
Impact Research (D) [36] [A] February 2024––52%43%0%5%

Results

Montana's 1st congressional district, 2024 [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ryan Zinke (incumbent) 168,529 52.3%
Democratic Monica Tranel 143,78344.6%
Libertarian Dennis Hayes9,9543.1%
Total votes322,266 100.0%

District 2

2024 Montana's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of Montana.svg
←  2022
2026 →
  Troy Downing (2023).jpg Democrat Precinct 14 Committeeman John Brian Driscoll at age 75 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Troy Downing John Driscoll
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote181,83293,713
Percentage66.0%34.0%
2024 MT-02 election results.svg
2024 MT-02 election results by precinct.svg
Downing:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Driscoll:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
U.S. Representative before election

Matt Rosendale
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Troy Downing
Republican

The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena. The incumbent is Republican Matt Rosendale, who was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2022. [1] He announced in February 2024 that he would run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but dropped out of the race one week later. [39] On March 8, 2024, Rosendale announced that he would not be seeking any office in 2024. [40]

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Elsie Arntzen

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Ken Bogner

Executive Branch officials

Troy Downing

Executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Declined to endorse

U.S. representatives

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Elsie Arntzen (R)$871,444 [d] $805,097$66,347
Kenneth Bogner (R)$54,359$43,425$10,933
Troy Downing (R)$1,818,816 [e] $1,383,494$435,322
Ric Holden (R)$49,248 [f] $46,540$2,708
Joel Krautter (R)$76,533 [g] $67,136$9,397
Denny Rehberg (R)$601,991 [h] $453,928$148,063
Stacy Zinn (R)$41,460$3,091$38,369
Source: Federal Election Commission [52]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Elsie
Arntzen		Kenneth
Bogner		Troy
Downing		Ric
Holden		Denny
Rehberg		Stacy
Zinn		OtherUndecided
Cygnal (R) [53] [E] May 8–9, 2024410 (LV)± 4.8%5%4%28%2%12%8%3% [i] 40%
Guidant Polling & Strategy [54] [F] April 14–17, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%10%–38%–26%––27%
Cygnal (R) [55] [E] April 15–16, 2024415 (LV)± 4.8%7%4%21%1%11%3%3% [j] 51%
Moore Information [56] [G] February 1, 2024500 (LV)–5%3%16%2%26%2%9% [k] 37%

Results

Results by county: Downing 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% Rehberg 20-30% Bogner 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Holden 20-30% 30-40% 2024 MT-2 GOP Primary.svg
Results by county:
  Downing
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  Rehberg
  •   20-30%
  Bogner
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  Holden
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Troy Downing 36,269 36.1
Republican Denny Rehberg 17,18217.1
Republican Stacy Zinn13,58113.5
Republican Elsie Arntzen 9,4689.4
Republican Kenneth Bogner 9,0269.0
Republican Ric Holden 7,1087.1
Republican Joel Krautter 3,4323.4
Republican Kyle Austin3,1773.2
Republican Ed Walker (withdrawn)1,1681.2
Total votes100,411 100.0

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Ming Cabrera, salesman [57]
  • Kevin Hamm, IT consultant [58]
  • Steve Held, actor and rancher [4]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ming Cabrera (D)$60,007 [l] $41,424$18,582
Kevin Hamm (D)$62,689$57,628$5,061
Steve Held (D)$86,570 [m] $67,945$18,624
Source: Federal Election Commission [52]

Results

Driscoll 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Held 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% Cabrera 30-40% 2024 MT-2 Dem Primary.svg
  Driscoll
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  Held
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  Cabrera
  •   30-40%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Driscoll 13,420 33.3
Democratic Steve Held10,64926.4
Democratic Ming Cabrera8,40820.9
Democratic Kevin Hamm7,81319.4
Total votes40,290 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [26] Solid RFebruary 2, 2023
Inside Elections [27] Solid RSeptember 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [28] Safe RFebruary 23, 2023
Elections Daily [29] Safe RSeptember 7, 2023
CNalysis [30] Solid RNovember 16, 2023

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Troy
Downing (R)		John
Driscoll (D)		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University [33] September 30 – October 16, 2024(A)–43%26%31% [n]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D) [37] [H] 		August 25–29, 2024290 (LV)–52%31%17%

Results

Montana's 2nd congressional district, 2024 [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Troy Downing 181,832 66.0%
Democratic John Driscoll 93,71334.0%
Total votes275,545 100.0%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ $76,300 of this total was self-funded by Todd
  2. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ "Undecided" with 4%
  4. ↑ $750,000 of this total was self-funded by Arntzen
  5. ↑ $1,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Downing
  6. ↑ $32,072 of this total was self-funded by Holden
  7. ↑ $6,240 of this total was self-funded by Krautter
  8. ↑ $450,000 of this total was self-funded by Rehberg
  9. ↑ Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1%; Ed Walker with 0%
  10. ↑ Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1; Ed Walker with 0%
  11. ↑ Joel Krautter and Ed Walker with 1%; "Other" with 7%
  12. ↑ $2,740 of this total was self-funded by Cabrera
  13. ↑ $45,000 of this total was self-funded by Held
  14. ↑ Metzger (I) with 4%; Neill (D) with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Tranel's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Congressional Leadership Fund
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Inside Elections
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which supports Downing's campaign
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by Downing's campaign
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by supporters of Rehberg's campaign
  8. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Denny Rehberg</span> American politician (born 1955)

Dennis Ray Rehberg is an American politician and member of the Republican Party. He served as the lieutenant governor of Montana from 1991 to 1997 and as the U.S. representative for Montana's at-large congressional district from 2001 to 2013. Rehberg was the Republican nominee for the United States Senate in 1996 and 2012, losing to Democratic incumbents Max Baucus 49% to 44% and Jon Tester 48% to 44%, respectively. He subsequently became a co-chairman at Mercury, a Washington D.C. lobbying firm.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Monica Tranel</span> American rower, lawyer, and political candidate

Monica Joan Tranel is an American rower and lawyer. She competed at the 1996 and 2000 Summer Olympics. Tranel ran in the 2022 and 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Montana.

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References

  1. 1 2 "2022 National House Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report . Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  2. ↑ Warren, Bradley (July 5, 2023). "Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate". Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
  3. 1 2 Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023). "Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress". KTMF . Retrieved July 10, 2023. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Federal Primary 2024". Montana Secretary of State. January 11, 2024.
  5. ↑ Buffington, Posie (March 22, 2024). "Former Pres. Trump endorses Zinke for re-election in Montana's District 1 congressional race". NonStop Local . Retrieved March 22, 2024.
  6. ↑ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". boltonpac.com. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  7. ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  8. ↑ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  9. 1 2 "2024 Election United States House - Montana 1st". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Montana 2024 Elections: Montana Primary Results". Montana Free Press . July 3, 2024. Retrieved October 30, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Elect Democratic Women Endorses Monica Tranel in Montana's 1st Congressional District". Elect Democratic Women. August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  12. 1 2 3 "NewDem Action Fund Announces New Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate". NewDem Action Fund. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  13. 1 2 Sagner, Denali (July 13, 2023). "Tranel Hones in on Montana's 'Purple DNA' at Kalispell Launch Event". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  14. ↑ "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  15. ↑ Montanan, Daily (July 11, 2023). "Tranel announces another bid for Congress". The Missoula Current News - Daily News in Missoula Montana. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  16. ↑ "Democrats launch their first slate of challengers in the fight for the House majority". NBC News. January 29, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  17. ↑ Schneider, Elena (February 8, 2024). "Pro-Israel group wades into several contested Democratic primaries". Politico . Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  18. ↑ Chou, Lauren (September 27, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Monica Tranel for Montana's 1st Congressional District". EMILYs List. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  19. ↑ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
  20. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces Slate of New U.S. House Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  21. ↑ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Group Proudly Endorses Tester, Tranel in Montana". NCPSSM. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  22. ↑ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  23. ↑ "New Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsements: We Can Flip The House By Electing These Reproductive Rights Champions in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  24. ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of Champions for the U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. October 24, 2023. Archived from the original on October 24, 2023. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  25. 1 2 "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  26. 1 2 "2024 House Race Ratings: Another Competitive Fight for Control". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
  27. 1 2 "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  28. 1 2 "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023.
  29. 1 2 "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 17, 2023.
  30. 1 2 "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  31. ↑ Impact Research (D)
  32. ↑ Guidance Polling and Strategy
  33. 1 2 Montana State University
  34. ↑ Noble Predictive Insights
  35. ↑ DCCC (D)
  36. 1 2 3 Impact Research (D)
  37. 1 2 Fabrizio Ward (R)/
    David Binder Research (D)
  38. 1 2 "2024 Statewide General Election Canvass". Secretary of State of Montana . December 11, 2024. Retrieved December 11, 2024.
  39. ↑ Mutnick, Ally; Beavers, Olivia; Everett, Burgess (February 15, 2024). "Rosendale drops Montana Senate bid". Politico.
  40. 1 2 Schnell, Mychael (March 8, 2024). "Rosendale drops reelection bid, will retire at end of term". The Hill. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
  41. ↑ "Troy Downing announces campaign for Congress". KTVQ . November 1, 2023. Retrieved November 1, 2023.
  42. ↑ West, Bowen (February 12, 2024). "Arntzen announces run for Congress". NBC News . Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  43. ↑ Warren, Bradley; Corrin, Noah (January 9, 2024). "Montana State Senator Ken Bogner announces run for U.S. Congress". KULR-TV . Retrieved January 9, 2024.
  44. 1 2 Murray, David (September 25, 2023). "Holden joins growing field in run to represent eastern House District". Great Falls Tribune . Retrieved September 25, 2023.
  45. ↑ Lutey, Tom (February 21, 2024). "Denny Rehberg launches U.S. House campaign". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  46. ↑ Buffington, Posie (November 6, 2023). "Stacy Zinn announces run for Montana congressional district two". KULR8. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  47. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ambarian, Jonathon (April 11, 2024). "Endorsements come in for Montana eastern district primary, some big players still on the sideline". KTVH-DT . Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  48. ↑ Roth, Samantha-Jo (April 3, 2024). "Freedom Caucus chairman endorses Republican in crowded primary for Rosendale House seat - Washington Examiner". The Washington Examiner . Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  49. ↑ "Big Win and Nine New Endorsements". House Freedom Fund. May 8, 2024. Retrieved May 8, 2024.
  50. ↑ Gorman, Reese (April 12, 2024). "Trump endorses Downing for U.S. House race". NBC Montana . Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  51. ↑ "Endorsements". With Honor Fund II. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  52. 1 2 "2024 Election United States House - Montana 2nd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  53. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  54. ↑ Guidant Polling & Strategy
  55. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  56. ↑ Moore Information
  57. ↑ Ragar, Shaylee (September 6, 2023). "Another Democrat joins Montana's eastern district U.S. House race". Montana Public Radio . Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  58. ↑ Ehrlick, Darrell (May 16, 2023). "Hamm announces bid for Congress". Daily Montanan.

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