2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana

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2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana
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←  2022 November 5, 20242026 →
Both Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives
 
Party Republican Democratic
Current seats20

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections are scheduled for June 4, 2024.

Contents

District 1

2024 Montana's 1st congressional district election
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  3x4.svg Monica Tranel on Vlogbrothers (cropped).jpg
NomineeTBD Monica Tranel
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. Representative

Ryan Zinke
Republican



The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Kalispell, Bozeman and Butte. The incumbent is Republican Ryan Zinke, who was elected with 49.7% of the vote in 2022. [1] He initially had expressed interest in running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but chose not to do so. [2]

Republican primary

Declared

  • Mary Todd, innkeeper and candidate for this district in 2022 [3]
  • Ryan Zinke, incumbent U.S. representative [4]

Endorsements

Ryan Zinke
Executive Branch officials
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ryan Zinke (R)$3,588,489$1,806,488$1,892,048
Source: Federal Election Commission [9]

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mary Todd
Republican Ryan Zinke (incumbent)
Total votes

Democratic primary

Presumptive nominee

Endorsements

Monica Tranel
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Monica Tranel (D)$1,201,757$306,735$895,022
Source: Federal Election Commission [9]

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Monica Tranel
Total votes

Libertarian primary

Declared

  • Dennis Hayes, remodeling contractor [3]
  • Ernie Noble, construction worker [3]

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Dennis Hayes
Libertarian Ernie Noble
Total votes

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [23] Likely RFebruary 2, 2023
Inside Elections [24] Lean RSeptember 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [25] Lean RFebruary 23, 2023
Elections Daily [26] Lean RSeptember 7, 2023
CNalysis [27] Lean RNovember 16, 2023

Results

Montana's 1st congressional district, 2024
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican TBD
Democratic Monica Tranel
Libertarian TBD
Total votes

District 2

2024 Montana's 2nd congressional district election
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2026 →
 
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. Representative

Matt Rosendale
Republican



The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena. The incumbent is Republican Matt Rosendale, who was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2022. [1] He announced in February 2024 that he would run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but dropped out of the race one week later. [28] On March 8, 2024, Rosendale announced that he would not be seeking any office in 2024. [29]

Republican primary

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Elsie Arntzen
U.S. representatives
Ken Bogner
Executive Branch officials
Troy Downing
U.S. representatives
Joel Krautter
Labor unions
Declined to endorse
U.S. representatives

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Elsie Arntzen (R)$253,125 [lower-alpha 1] $134,559$118,566
Troy Downing (R)$353,274 [lower-alpha 2] $59,173$294,100
Ric Holden (R)$32,869 [lower-alpha 3] $5,477$27,392
Joel Krautter (R)$35,786 [lower-alpha 4] $26,083$9,703
Matt Rosendale (R) [lower-alpha 5] $1,002,542$548,089$1,672,256
Edward Walker (R) [lower-alpha 5] $103,597 [lower-alpha 6] $29,752$73,845
Stacy Zinn (R)$1,457$57$1,400
Source: Federal Election Commission [38]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 7] 		Margin
of error		Elsie
Arntzen		Kenneth
Bogner		Troy
Downing		Ric
Holden		Denny
Rehberg		Stacey
Zinn		OtherUndecided
Guidant Polling & Strategy [upper-alpha 1] April 14–17, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%10%–38%–26%––27%
Moore Information [upper-alpha 2] February 1, 2024500 (LV)?5%3%16%2%26%2%9% [lower-alpha 8] 37%

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Elsie Arntzen
Republican Kyle Austin
Republican Kenneth Bogner
Republican Troy Downing
Republican Ric Holden
Republican Joel Krautter
Republican Denny Rehberg
Republican Ed Walker (withdrawn)
Republican Stacy Zinn
Total votes

Democratic primary

Declared

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ming Cabrera (D)$46,725 [lower-alpha 9] $22,769$23,956
Kevin Hamm (D)$30,772$27,959$2,813
Source: Federal Election Commission [38]

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mike Cabrera
Democratic John Driscoll
Democratic Kevin Hamm
Democratic Steve Held
Total votes

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [23] Solid RFebruary 2, 2023
Inside Elections [24] Solid RSeptember 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [25] Safe RFebruary 23, 2023
Elections Daily [26] Safe RSeptember 7, 2023
CNalysis [27] Solid RNovember 16, 2023

Results

Montana's 2nd congressional district, 2024
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican TBD
Democratic TBD
Total votes

Notes

  1. ↑ $251,400 of this total was self-funded by Arntzen.
  2. ↑ $150,000 of this total was self-funded by Downing.
  3. ↑ $32,072 of this total was self-funded by Holden.
  4. ↑ $4,787 of this total was self-funded by Krautter.
  5. 1 2 Withdrawn candidate
  6. ↑ $10,000 of this total was self-funded by Walker.
  7. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. ↑ Joel Krautter and Ed Walker with 1%; "Other" with 7%
  9. ↑ $1,000 of this total was self-funded by Cabrera.
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll commissioned by Downing's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll commissioned by "Rehberg allies"

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References

  1. 1 2 "2022 National House Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report . Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  2. ↑ Warren, Bradley (July 5, 2023). "Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate". Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Federal Primary 2024". Montana Secretary of State. January 11, 2024.
  4. 1 2 Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023). "Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress". KTMF . Retrieved July 10, 2023. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
  5. ↑ Buffington, Posie (March 22, 2024). "Former Pres. Trump endorses Zinke for re-election in Montana's District 1 congressional race". NonStop Local . Retrieved March 22, 2024.
  6. ↑ {{cite web |https://www.boltonpac.com/our-candidates/
  7. ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Archived from the original on August 27, 2023. Retrieved August 27, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates | CWF". www.cwfpac.com. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
  9. 1 2 "2024 Election United States House - Montana 1st". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Elect Democratic Women Endorses Monica Tranel in Montana's 1st Congressional District". Elect Democratic Women. August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  11. 1 2 3 "NewDem Action Fund Announces New Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate". NewDem Action Fund. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  12. 1 2 Sagner, Denali (July 13, 2023). "Tranel Hones in on Montana's 'Purple DNA' at Kalispell Launch Event". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  13. ↑ Montanan, Daily (July 11, 2023). "Tranel announces another bid for Congress". The Missoula Current News - Daily News in Missoula Montana. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  14. ↑ "Democrats launch their first slate of challengers in the fight for the House majority". NBC News. January 29, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  15. ↑ Schneider, Elena (February 8, 2024). "Pro-Israel group wades into several contested Democratic primaries". Politico . Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  16. ↑ Chou, Lauren (September 27, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Monica Tranel for Montana's 1st Congressional District". EMILYs List. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
  18. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces Slate of New U.S. House Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  19. ↑ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  20. ↑ "New Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsements: We Can Flip The House By Electing These Reproductive Rights Champions in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  21. ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of Champions for the U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. October 24, 2023. Archived from the original on October 24, 2023. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  22. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  23. 1 2 "2024 House Race Ratings: Another Competitive Fight for Control". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
  24. 1 2 "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  25. 1 2 "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023.
  26. 1 2 "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 17, 2023.
  27. 1 2 "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  28. ↑ Mutnick, Ally; Beavers, Olivia; Everett, Burgess (February 15, 2024). "Rosendale drops Montana Senate bid". Politico.
  29. 1 2 Schnell, Mychael (March 8, 2024). "Rosendale drops reelection bid, will retire at end of term". The Hill. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
  30. ↑ West, Bowen (February 12, 2024). "Arntzen announces run for Congress". NBC News . Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  31. ↑ Warren, Bradley; Corrin, Noah (January 9, 2024). "Montana State Senator Ken Bogner announces run for U.S. Congress". KULR-TV . Retrieved January 9, 2024.
  32. ↑ "Troy Downing announces campaign for Congress". KTVQ . November 1, 2023. Retrieved November 1, 2023.
  33. 1 2 Murray, David (September 25, 2023). "Holden joins growing field in run to represent eastern House District". Great Falls Tribune . Retrieved September 25, 2023.
  34. ↑ Lutey, Tom (February 21, 2024). "Denny Rehberg launches U.S. House campaign". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  35. ↑ Buffington, Posie (November 6, 2023). "Stacy Zinn announces run for Montana congressional district two". KULR8. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  36. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ambarian, Jonathon (April 11, 2024). "Endorsements come in for Montana eastern district primary, some big players still on the sideline". KTVH-DT . Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  37. ↑ Roth, Samantha-Jo (April 3, 2024). "Freedom Caucus chairman endorses Republican in crowded primary for Rosendale House seat - Washington Examiner". The Washington Examiner . Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  38. 1 2 "2024 Election United States House - Montana 2nd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  39. ↑ Ragar, Shaylee (September 6, 2023). "Another Democrat joins Montana's eastern district U.S. House race". Montana Public Radio . Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  40. ↑ Ehrlick, Darrell (May 16, 2023). "Hamm announces bid for Congress". Daily Montanan.
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