2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

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2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
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Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Primary elections will take place on August 13, 2024. [1]

Contents

Incumbent two-term Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected with 55.4% of the vote in 2018. She announced she would be running for re-election on April 12, 2023. [2]

Background

No Republican has won this Class 1 senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. The incumbent, Tammy Baldwin, was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points. [3] [4]

Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than a percentage point and only a plurality.

Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other senate seat. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite. [5] [6]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Tammy Baldwin
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Tammy Baldwin (D)$26,376,467$16,267,309$10,251,350
Source: Federal Election Commission [34]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Eric Hovde
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Organizations
Declined to endorse
U.S. senators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Eric Hovde (R)$9,069,811 [lower-alpha 1] $3,720,300$5,349,512
Stacey Klein (R) [lower-alpha 2] $33,361.73$27,227.47$6,485.09
Source: Federal Election Commission [54]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 3] 		Margin
of error		David
Clarke		Mike
Gallagher		Eric
Hovde		Scott
Mayer		Tom
Tiffany		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 11–12, 2023503 (LV)± 4.4%52%–7%6%–36%
51%–10%––39%
52%––6%–42%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 5–6, 2023507 (LV)± 4.4%40%20%3%–10%27%
45%26%–––29%

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Phil Anderson (L)$16,318$12,477$3,840
Source: Federal Election Commission [34]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [56] Lean DApril 9, 2024
Inside Elections [57] Lean DJuly 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [58] Lean DJanuary 24, 2023
Elections Daily [59] Lean DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [60] Lean DNovember 21, 2023

Polling

Tammy Baldwin vs. Eric Hovde
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 3] 		Margin
of error		Tammy
Baldwin (D)		Eric
Hovde (R)		Undecided
Marquette University Law School April 3–10, 2024814 (RV)± 4.8%52%47%1%
736 (LV)± 5.0%50%50%–
Emerson College March 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%42%14%
Emerson College February 20–24, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%39%15%
Hypothetical polling
Tammy Baldwin vs. Mike Gallagher
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 3] 		Margin
of error		Tammy
Baldwin (D)		Mike
Gallagher (R)		Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 23–25, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%47%46%7%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 3] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 23–25, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%42%46%12%
Tammy Baldwin vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 3] 		Margin
of error		Tammy
Baldwin (D)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 23–25, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%40%43%17%

Notes

  1. ↑ $8,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Hovde
  2. ↑ withdrew
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Gallagher.

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References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. 1 2 Andrea, Lawrence (April 12, 2022). "Tammy Baldwin launches re-election bid, setting up 2024 Senate battle in Wisconsin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 12, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Wisconsin". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved March 21, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Wisconsin | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Wisconsin 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 21, 2023.
  6. ↑ "Opinion | In Wisconsin, Tony Evers made a virtue of being dull". Washington Post. ISSN   0190-8286 . Retrieved March 21, 2023.
  7. ↑ Wells, Dylan (April 12, 2022). "Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin announces reelection bid in Wisconsin". Washington Post . Retrieved April 12, 2022.
  8. 1 2 "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the US Senate". Giffords. September 6, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
  9. 1 2 "NextGen PAC: Endorses Sen. Baldwin ahead of 2024 elections". Wispolitics.com . May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  10. 1 2 "Wisconsin AFL-CIO Endorses Tammy Baldwin in 2024 Senate Race". Wisconsin AFL-CIO . May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
  11. ↑ "Wisconsin". UAW Endorsements. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  12. ↑ "Baldwin Campaign: United Steelworkers District 7 endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". Wis Politics. November 8, 2024. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  13. ↑ "314 Action Fund Endorses Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-Election. - 3.14 Action".
  14. ↑ "Bend the Arc Jewish Action PAC". Bend the Arc: Jewish Action. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  16. 1 2 McIntire, Mary Ellen; Altimari, Altimari; Jackson, Herb (April 25, 2023). "At the Races: Survey Says What?". Roll Call . Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Fair Wisconsin Political Action Committee (PAC)". Fair Wisconsin PAC. May 22, 2023. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
  18. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  19. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-election". Human Rights Campaign. December 13, 2023. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  20. ↑ "Tammy Baldwin". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  21. ↑ "JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  22. ↑ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  23. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  24. ↑ Fujii, Albert (April 24, 2023). "LGBTQ+ Victory Fund Endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". LGBTQ+ Victory Fund. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  25. ↑ "LPAC Announces April 2023 Endorsement Slate". LPAC. April 18, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
  26. ↑ Engst, Kodie (March 18, 2024). "Baldwin campaign: National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC endorses Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". WisPolitics. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  27. ↑ Communications (July 20, 2023). "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Sen. Tammy Baldwin for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Wisconsin". NARAL Pro-Choice America. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
  28. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
  29. ↑ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  30. ↑ "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  31. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  32. ↑ "2023 - 2024 Stonewall Endorsed Candidates". Stonewall Democratic Club. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  33. ↑ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left .
  34. 1 2 "2024 Election United States Senate - Wisconsin". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  35. ↑ Edelman, Adam (February 20, 2024). "Republican Eric Hovde officially enters Wisconsin Senate race against Tammy Baldwin". NBC News . Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  36. ↑ Bauer, Scott (August 8, 2023). "A longshot Republican is entering the US Senate race in Wisconsin against Sen. Tammy Baldwin". Town and Country Today.
  37. ↑ Singer, Jeff (February 20, 2024). "GOP's new Senate recruit in Wisconsin won't say how much time he actually spends there". Daily Kos . Retrieved February 20, 2024. A spokesperson for former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke also informed the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel just before Hovde's launch that his own decision would be 'coming within weeks.'
  38. 1 2 "Klein dropping U.S. Senate bid". WisPolitics . March 28, 2024. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  39. ↑ "Klein campaign: Transitions campaign from U.S. Senate to Wisconsin state Senate District 32". Wispolitics . April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  40. ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (June 9, 2023). "Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher says he will not run for Senate in 2024, leaving an open GOP field". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved June 9, 2023.
  41. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Singer, Jeff (April 2, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/2". Daily Kos . Retrieved April 2, 2024. WI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Eric Hovde on Monday publicized endorsements from all five members of Wisconsin's GOP House delegation.
  42. ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (March 19, 2024). "Scott Mayer won't enter Republican field to challenge Tammy Baldwin". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved March 19, 2024.
  43. ↑ Lieffring, Christina (May 24, 2023). "Website names purchased, big cash raised, but Steil 'not running,' Gallagher mum on running against 'popular' Baldwin". The Badger Project. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  44. ↑ Glauber, Bill; Andrea, Lawrence (February 13, 2023). "Wisconsin Republicans Who Could Challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  45. ↑ Andrea, Lawrence (August 1, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Tiffany says he will not run for Senate in 2024". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  46. ↑ Glauber, Bill (March 20, 2023). "Scott Walker won't challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024: 'I would be bored as a senator'". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved March 20, 2023.
  47. 1 2 Singer, Jeff (February 16, 2024). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/16". Daily Kos . Retrieved February 16, 2024. WI-Sen: Former GOP Gov. Scott Walker has endorsed wealthy businessman Eric Hovde
  48. ↑ Vakil, Caroline (April 2, 2024). "Trump endorses Eric Hovde in Wisconsin Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  49. ↑ Action, A. F. P. (February 21, 2024). "Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Eric Hovde for U.S. Senate". AFP Action. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  50. ↑ Valentine, Jesse (February 26, 2024). "Republican Eric Hovde makes inconsistent statements about family history". American Journal News. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  51. ↑ Action, F.C.R. (February 21, 2024). "University of Wisconsin-Madison College Republicans Endorse Eric Hovde for U.S. Senate". Twitter. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
  52. ↑ "Wisconsin Federation of College Republicans Endorsements". March 11, 2024. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
  53. ↑ Marquez, Alexandra (October 24, 2023). "Republicans look to fill a glaring hole in their Senate recruitment map". NBC News . Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  54. ↑ "KLEIN, STACEY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  55. ↑ Frisk, Garrett (March 28, 2023). "First Declared Challenger to Tammy Baldwin is a Libertarian". Diamond Eye Candidate Report.
  56. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  57. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  58. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  59. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  60. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
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