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Elections in Texas |
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Government |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term in office. [1] Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024 during Super Tuesday. [2]
U.S. Representative Colin Allred won the Democratic nomination to challenge Cruz and will seek to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. [3]
Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas' U.S. House congressional delegation.
Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15.84 points and was reelected in 2018 by only 2.56 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. [4] [5] The close elections in 2018 prompted some analysts to believe that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans improved their margins of victory. [6] [7]
This race is considered to heavily favor Cruz, but some consider the race to have a potential to become competitive. [8] Should Democrats win this election, it would be the first time they won a Texas U.S. Senate race since 1988.
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Results by county Cruz: 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024 | |||
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Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Ted Cruz (R) | $46,587,309 | $40,169,663 | $6,575,604 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [22] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Ted Cruz | Holland Gibson | Rufus Lopez | Other | Undecided |
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YouGov [upper-alpha 1] | February 2–12, 2024 | 492 (RV) | ± 4.42% | 82% | 7% | 3% | 9% | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ted Cruz (incumbent) | 1,977,961 | 88.3 | |
Republican | Holland Gibson | 134,011 | 6.0 | |
Republican | Rufus Lopez | 127,986 | 5.7 | |
Total votes | 2,239,958 | 100.0 |
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Results by county Allred: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gutierrez: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Gonzalez: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% >90% Gomez: 20–30% Tied No Votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024 | |||
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Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Colin Allred (D) | $21,371,157 | $12,867,031 | $8,504,126 |
Mark Gonzalez (D) | $14,967 [lower-alpha 2] | $11,659 | $3,307 |
Roland Gutierrez (D) | $1,301,543 | $1,146,487 | $155,055 |
Steven Keough (D) | $27,357 [lower-alpha 3] | $27,730 | $0 |
Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D) | $30,458 | $29,440 | $1,017 |
Carl Sherman (D) | $173,565 | $150,616 | $22,949 |
Thierry Tchenko (D) | $117,067 | $106,606 | $10,461 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [22] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Colin Allred | Meri Gomez | Mark Gonzalez | Roland Gutierrez | Carl Sherman | Other | Undecided |
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UT Tyler | February 18–26, 2024 | 441 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 37% | – | – | 22% | 6% | 2% | 32% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] | February 2–12, 2024 | 354 (RV) | ± 5.21% | 52% | 3% | 5% | 14% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 4] | 18% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 2] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 40% | 4% | 2% | 12% | 1% | 3% [lower-alpha 5] | 38% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 3] | January 13–15, 2024 | 460 (RV) | ± 4.81% | 29% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 15% [lower-alpha 6] | 37% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] | December 1–10, 2023 | 415 (RV) | ± 4.81% | 28% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 10% [lower-alpha 7] | 48% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] | October 5–17, 2023 | 409 (RV) | ± 4.84% | 21% | 2% | 2% | 10% | 2% | 15% [lower-alpha 8] | 46% |
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 33% | – | – | 22% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 9] | 41% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Colin Allred | 569,585 | 58.9 | |
Democratic | Roland Gutierrez | 160,978 | 16.6 | |
Democratic | Mark Gonzalez | 85,228 | 8.8 | |
Democratic | Meri Gomez | 44,166 | 4.6 | |
Democratic | Carl Sherman | 31,694 | 3.3 | |
Democratic | Robert Hassan | 21,855 | 2.3 | |
Democratic | Steven Keough | 21,801 | 2.3 | |
Democratic | Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman | 18,801 | 1.9 | |
Democratic | Thierry Tchenko | 13,395 | 1.4 | |
Total votes | 967,503 | 100.00 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [76] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [77] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [78] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily [79] | Likely R | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [80] | Lean R | November 21, 2023 |
Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Ted Cruz (R) | Colin Allred (D) | Other | Undecided |
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Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 46% | 41% | 4% [lower-alpha 10] | 9% |
Cygnal (R) | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 36% | 5% [lower-alpha 11] | 14% |
Marist College | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 3% |
UT Tyler | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 41% | 7% | 12% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.49% | 46% | 32% | 9% | 13% |
National Public Affairs | February 6–8, 2024 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 2] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,145 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 39% | 4% [lower-alpha 12] | 9% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 3] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 40% | 8% | 11% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 27% | 15% [lower-alpha 13] | 15% |
University of Texas at Tyler | May 10–21, 2023 | 1,413 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 8% [lower-alpha 14] | 14% |
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 40% | 4% [lower-alpha 15] | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Ted Cruz (R) | Roland Gutierrez (D) | Other | Undecided |
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YouGov [upper-alpha 1] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.49% | 45% | 31% | 9% | 14% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 2] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,145 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 38% | 4% [lower-alpha 12] | 10% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 3] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 40% | 8% | 11% |
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 42% | 26% | 16% [lower-alpha 16] | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
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Republican | Ted Cruz (incumbent) | ||||
Democratic | Colin Allred | ||||
Total votes |
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