2024 United States Senate election in Texas

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2024 United States Senate election in Texas
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  Ted Cruz official 116th portrait (cropped).jpg Colin Allred, official portrait, 117th Congress (3x4).jpg
Nominee Ted Cruz Colin Allred
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote5,990,7415,031,249
Percentage53.05%44.56%
2024 United States Senate election in Texas results map by county.svg
County results
Cruz:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Allred:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Ted Cruz
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Ted Cruz
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Republican incumbent Ted Cruz won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic challenger and U.S. Representative Colin Allred. [1] [2] [3] The primary election took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday. [4]

Contents

Original polling showed Cruz as a clear favorite, but polls closer to the election showed a closer race. Cruz ultimately outperformed polling and expectations and won re-election by 8.5 points, improving on his 2018 margin by six points and flipping thirteen counties. [5] [6] Allred did outperform Kamala Harris in the concurrent 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas by 5 points. With slightly over 53% of the vote, Cruz received the lowest vote share for any incumbent Republican senator in the 2024 election cycle. Likewise, Allred received the highest vote share for a Democratic candidate in a seat occupied by a Republican (only Dan Osborn, an Independent running in Nebraska, received a larger vote share for a challenger in a Republican held seat).

Cruz won Hispanic and Latino voters, particularly those living on the border with Mexico who had traditionally supported Democratic candidates; exit polls showed 52% of Latinos supported Cruz, a 17-point increase from 2018. [7]

Background

Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. [8] Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas's U.S. House congressional delegation. Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15.84 points and was reelected in 2018 by only 2.56 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. [9] [10] The close elections in 2018 prompted many electoral analysts to speculate that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans increased their margins of victory. [11] [8] This race was considered to generally favor Cruz, but some considered the race to have the potential to become competitive. [12]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Holland Gibson, retiree [14]
  • Rufus Lopez, attorney [14]

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ted Cruz (R)$59,159,421$46,606,430$12,710,949
Source: Federal Election Commission [26]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz		Holland
Gibson		Rufus
Lopez		OtherUndecided
YouGov [27] [A] February 2–12, 2024492 (RV)± 4.42%82%7%3%9%–

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Cruz 70-80% 80-90% >90% Senate Texas Primary Republican 2024.svg
Results by county:
  Cruz
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 1,977,961 88.30%
Republican Holland Gibson134,0115.98%
Republican Rufus Lopez127,9865.71%
Total votes2,239,958 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner [32] [14]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Colin Allred

US executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers and other media

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Colin Allred (D)$38,433,747$27,983,265$10,450,482
Mark Gonzalez (D)$14,967 [b] $11,659$3,307
Roland Gutierrez (D)$1,301,543$1,146,487$155,055
Steven Keough (D)$27,357 [c] $27,730$0
Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D)$30,458$29,440$1,017
Carl Sherman (D)$173,565$150,616$22,949
Thierry Tchenko (D)$117,067$106,606$10,461
Source: Federal Election Commission [26]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Colin
Allred		Meri
Gomez		Mark
Gonzalez		Roland
Gutierrez		Carl
Sherman		OtherUndecided
UT Tyler [80] February 18–26, 2024441 (LV)± 5.3%37%––22%6%2%32%
YouGov [81] [A] February 2–12, 2024354 (RV)± 5.21%52%3%5%14%2%5% [d] 18%
YouGov [82] [B] January 11–24, 20241,500 (LV)± 2.5%40%4%2%12%1%3% [e] 38%
Emerson College [83] [C] January 13–15, 2024460 (RV)± 4.81%29%4%6%7%2%15% [f] 37%
YouGov [84] [A] December 1–10, 2023415 (RV)± 4.81%28%3%2%7%2%10% [g] 48%
YouGov [85] [A] October 5–17, 2023409 (RV)± 4.84%21%2%2%10%2%15% [h] 46%
Texas Hispanic
Policy Foundation [86] 		May 8–17, 20231,000 (RV)± 2.9%33%––22%–4% [i] 41%

Results

Results by county: Allred 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Gutierrez 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Gonzalez 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% >90% Tied No Votes Senate Texas Primary Democratic 2024.svg
Results by county:
  Allred
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Gutierrez
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Gonzalez
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   >90%
  Tied
  No Votes
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Colin Allred 569,585 58.87%
Democratic Roland Gutierrez 160,97816.64%
Democratic Mark Gonzalez85,2288.81%
Democratic Meri Gomez44,1664.56%
Democratic Carl Sherman 31,6943.28%
Democratic Robert Hassan21,8552.26%
Democratic Steven Keough21,8012.25%
Democratic Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman18,8011.94%
Democratic Thierry Tchenko13,3951.38%
Total votes967,503 100.00%

Libertarian convention

Nominee

Write-in candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [90] Lean ROctober 1, 2024
Inside Elections [91] Tilt ROctober 31, 2024
Fox News [92] Likely ROctober 1, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [94] Lean RAugust 26, 2024
Elections Daily [95] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis [96] Tilt ROctober 23, 2024
RealClearPolitics [97] TossupOctober 30, 2024
Split Ticket [98] Lean ROctober 23, 2024
538 [99] Likely ROctober 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Ted Cruz (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Colin Allred (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ted Cruz (R)$86,316,192$76,908,816$9,565,334
Colin Allred (D)$80,059,292$77,557,763$2,501,528
Source: Federal Election Commission [26]

Debates

2024 Texas U.S. Senate election debate
No.DateHostModeratorsLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CruzAllred
1October 15, 2024 WFAA YouTube PP

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Ted
Cruz (R)		Colin
Allred (D)		Undecided
[j] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight [132] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.4%45.4%5.2%Cruz +4.0%
RCP [133] October 22 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.2%44.8%6.0%Cruz +4.4%
270toWin [134] October 18 - November 3, 2024November 3, 202449.0%45.2%5.8%Cruz +3.8%
TheHill/DDHQ [135] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.8%46.0%4.2%Cruz +3.8%
Average49.4%45.4%5.2%Cruz +4.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Colin
Allred (D)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [136] November 1–4, 20242,434 (LV)± 2.0%53%46%1%–
Morning Consult [137] October 22–31, 20242,120 (LV)± 2.0%47%44%–9%
Cygnal (R) [138] October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%45%3% [k] 3%
ActiVote [139] October 21–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%48%––
NYT/Siena College [140] October 23–26, 20241,180 (LV)± 3.3%50%46%–4%
1,180 (RV)± 3.1%49%46%–5%
GBAO (D) [141] [D] October 18–23, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%46%4% [l] 4%
Emerson College [142] [E] October 18–21, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%48%47%–5%
UT Tyler [143] October 14–21, 2024956 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%3% [k] 6%
YouGov [144] [F] October 7–17, 20241,108 (RV)± 3.49%49%45%–6%
ActiVote [145] October 1–16, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%––
Morning Consult [137] October 6–15, 20242,048 (LV)–46%45%–9%
YouGov [146] [A] October 2–10, 20241,091 (LV)± 2.97%51%44%4% [l] –
University of Houston [147] September 26 – October 10, 20241,329 (LV)± 2.7%50%46%1% [m] 3%
Marist College [148] October 3–7, 20241,186 (LV)± 3.6%51%46%–3%
1,365 (RV)± 3.3%50%47%–3%
FAU/Mainstreet Research [149] October 2–6, 2024811 (RV)± 3.4%46%43%–11%
775 (LV)± 3.4%47%44%–9%
NYT/Siena College [150] September 29 – October 4, 2024617 (LV)± 4.8%48%44%–8%
617 (RV)± 4.5%45%43%–12%
GBAO (D) [141] [D] Early October 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%44%6% [n] 4%
ActiVote [151] September 5–30, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%48%––
RMG Research [152] [G] September 25–27, 2024779 (LV)± 3.5%50%47%4% [o] –
Public Policy Polling [153] [H] September 25–26, 2024759 (RV)± 3.5%47%46%–7%
45%43%3% [k] 9%
Emerson College [142] [E] September 22–24, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%49%45%–6%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation [154] September 13–18, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.83%48%45%–7%
Morning Consult [137] September 9–18, 20242,716 (LV)± 2.0%44%45%–11%
CWS Research (R) [155] [I] September 4–9, 2024504 (LV)± 4.365%46%40%3% [k] 11%
Morning Consult [156] August 30 – September 8, 20242,940 (LV)± 2.0%47%42%–11%
Emerson College [157] September 3–5, 2024845 (LV)± 3.3%48%44%–8%
GBAO (D) [141] [D] September 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%43%4% [l] 5%
YouGov [158] [A] August 23–31, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%44%36%6% [p] 14%
Quantus Polls and News [159] August 29–30, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.1%50%43%3%4%
Texas Public Opinion Research/
Lake Research Partners [160] 		August 24–29, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%47%43%7% [q] 3%
ActiVote [161] August 13–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––
Public Policy Polling (D) [162] [H] August 21–22, 2024725 (RV)± 3.6%47%45%–8%
44%40%4% [l] 12%
YouGov [163] [J] August 5–16, 20241,365 (LV)± 2.65%47%45%3% [k] 6%
ActiVote [164] June 25 – July 18, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––
Remington Research Group (R) [165] [K] June 29 – July 1, 2024589 (LV)± 4.0%53%43%–4%
YouGov [166] [J] June 20 – July 1, 20241,484 (LV)± 2.5%47%44%3% [k] 6%
Manhattan Institute [167] June 25–27, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%3% [r] 8%
UT Tyler [168] June 11–20, 20241,144 (RV)± 3.7%43%39%7% [s] 10%
931 (LV)± 3.8%45%42%7% [s] 7%
YouGov [169] [A] May 31 – June 9, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%34%6%15%
GBAO (D) [141] [D] May 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%40%8% [t] 5%
YouGov [170] [A] April 12–22, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.83%46%33%7%22%
Texas Lyceum [171] April 12–21, 2024926 (RV)± 3.2%41%31%13%15%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation [172] April 5–10, 20241,600 (LV)± 2.45%46%41%4% [l] 9%
Cygnal (R) [173] April 4–6, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.9%45%36%5% [u] 14%
Marist College [174] March 18–21, 20241,117 (RV)± 3.8%51%45%1%3%
UT Tyler [80] February 18–26, 20241,167 (RV)± 3.2%41%41%7%12%
YouGov [27] [A] February 2–12, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.49%46%32%9%13%
National Public Affairs [175] February 6–8, 2024807 (LV)± 3.5%44%44%–12%
YouGov [82] [B] January 11–24, 20241,145 (RV)± 2.5%48%39%4% [l] 9%
Emerson College [83] [C] January 13–15, 20241,315 (RV)± 2.6%42%40%8%11%
YouGov [84] [A] December 1–10, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.4%43%27%15% [v] 15%
University of Texas at Tyler [176] May 10–21, 20231,413 (RV)± 3.0%42%37%8% [w] 14%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation [177] May 8–17, 20231,000 (RV)± 2.9%47%40%4% [x] 9%
Hypothetical polling

Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz (R)		Roland
Gutierrez (D)		OtherUndecided
YouGov [27] [A] February 2–12, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.49%45%31%9%14%
YouGov [82] [B] January 11–24, 20241,145 (RV)± 2.5%48%38%4% [l] 10%
Emerson College [83] [C] January 13–15, 20241,315 (RV)± 2.6%41%40%8%11%
YouGov [84] [A] December 1–10, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.4%42%26%16% [y] 17%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Texas [178]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 5,990,741 53.067% +2.18%
Democratic Colin Allred 5,031,24944.568%−3.762%
Libertarian Ted Brown267,0392.365%+1.585%
Total votes11,289,029 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ $3,900 of this total was self-funded by Gonzalez
  3. ↑ $6,050 of this total was self-funded by Keough
  4. ↑ Steven Keough with 3%; Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman and Thierry Tchenko with 1%; Robert Hassan with 0%
  5. ↑ Robert Hassan, Steven Keough, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Thierry Tchenko with 0%
  6. ↑ Steven Keough, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Robert Hassan with 1%; "Someone else" with 8%
  7. ↑ Sherri Taylor, Victor Dunn, and John Love III with 2%; Tracy Andrus, Aaron Arguijo, and Steven Keough with 1%; Teresa Naranjo, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ↑ Sherri Taylor with 3%; Tracy Andrus, Steven Keough, Teresa Naranjo, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Aaron Arguijo, John Love III, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Victor Dunn with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ↑ John Love with 4%
  10. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Brown (L) with 3%
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Brown (L) with 4%
  13. ↑ Brown (L) with 1%
  14. ↑ Brown (L) with 6%
  15. ↑ "Wouldn't Vote" and "Someone Else" with 2%
  16. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Brown (L) with 2%
  17. ↑ Brown (L) with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  18. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  19. 1 2 Brown (L) with 5%; "Refused" with 2%
  20. ↑ Brown (L) with 8%
  21. ↑ Brown (L) with 3%; Mason Cysewski (G) with 2%
  22. ↑ "Someone else" with 15%
  23. ↑ "Someone else" with 7%; Refused to answer with 1%
  24. ↑ Libertarian candidate with 2%; Green Party candidate with 2%
  25. ↑ "Someone else" with 16%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
  3. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  4. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by Rose Institute of State and Local Government
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by Napolitan Institute
  8. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
  9. ↑ Poll sponsored by Texas Gun Rights, which supports Republican candidates
  10. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University
  11. ↑ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, which supports Republican candidates

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Tim Sheehy. Sheehy's victory gave Republicans control of both of Montana's Senate seats for the first time since 1911. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024. Although Tester outperformed Kamala Harris in the concurrent presidential election by 12.8 points, which was the strongest overperformance of any Democratic Senate candidate, it was still not enough to win, as Donald Trump carried Montana by nearly 20 points.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the State of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. These were the first congressional elections held in Iowa after the 2020 redistricting cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the 38 U.S. representatives from Texas, one from each of the state's 38 congressional districts. The state gained two seats after the results of the 2020 census. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on March 1, with primary runoffs scheduled for May 24 for districts where no candidate received over 50% of the vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Texas</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Texas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas had 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas</span>

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the thirty-eight U.S. representatives from the State of Texas, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.

References

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  2. ↑ Weaver, Al (November 6, 2024). "Ted Cruz wins Texas Senate reelection race, defeating Colin Allred". The Hill. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
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  4. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures . Archived from the original on November 10, 2023.
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  8. 1 2 "Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue". The Texas Tribune. November 9, 2022. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don't have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, [Drew Landry] said. Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott.
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  64. 1 2 @LaCongresista (February 17, 2024). "This morning we held a great GOTV breakfast with our community members and candidates for office where I endorsed @RolandForTexas in our senate race! 🏛️ Thank you to @Pct6Constable, @HarrisCoPct2 Jerry Garcia, @JuanForJudge, @MarioforHouston, and @RepPennyMShaw for coming out!" (Tweet). Retrieved February 17, 2024– via Twitter.
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  71. ↑ Perez, Zenia (January 31, 2024). "Latino Victory Fund Endorses Texas Slate". Latino Victory . Retrieved February 1, 2024.
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  125. ↑ Dallas Morning News Editorial (October 20, 2024). "Our recommendation for U.S. Senate". Dallas Morning News. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
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  138. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  139. ↑ ActiVote
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  141. 1 2 3 4 GBAO (D)
  142. 1 2 Emerson College
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  144. ↑ YouGov
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  148. ↑ Marist College
  149. ↑ FAU/Mainstreet Research
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  152. ↑ RMG Research
  153. ↑ Public Policy Polling
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  155. ↑ CWS Research (R)
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  157. ↑ Emerson College
  158. ↑ YouGov
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  163. ↑ YouGov
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  165. ↑ Remington Research Group (R)
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  167. ↑ Manhattan Institute
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  172. ↑ Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
  173. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  174. ↑ Marist College
  175. ↑ National Public Affairs
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