2024 United States Senate election in Texas

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Texas
Flag of Texas.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
  Ted Cruz official 116th portrait (cropped).jpg Colin Allred, official portrait, 117th Congress (3x4).jpg
Nominee Ted Cruz Colin Allred
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Ted Cruz
Republican



The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term in office. [1] Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024 during Super Tuesday. [2]

Contents

U.S. Representative Colin Allred won the Democratic nomination to challenge Cruz and will seek to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988.

Background

Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994. [3]

Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas' U.S. House congressional delegation.

Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15.84 points and was reelected in 2018 by only 2.56 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. [4] [5] The close elections in 2018 prompted some analysts to believe that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans improved their margins of victory. [6] [7]

This race is considered to heavily favor Cruz, but some consider the race to have a potential to become competitive. [8] Should Democrats win this election, it would be the first time they won a Texas U.S. Senate race since 1988.

Republican primary

2024 United States Senate Republican primary in Texas
Flag of Texas.svg
  2018 March 5, 2024 (2024-03-05)2030 
  Ted Cruz official 116th portrait (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg 3x4.svg
Candidate Ted Cruz Holland GibsonRufus Lopez
Popular vote1,977,961134,011127,986
Percentage88.3%6.0%5.7%

Senate Texas Primary Republican 2024.svg
Results by county
Cruz:     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

Previous Republican nominee

Ted Cruz

Republican nominee

Ted Cruz

Candidates

Nominee

  • Ted Cruz, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present) [9]

Eliminated in primary

  • Holland Gibson, retiree [10]
  • Rufus Lopez, attorney [10]

Declined

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ted Cruz (R)$46,587,309$40,169,663$6,575,604
Source: Federal Election Commission [22]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Holland
Gibson
Rufus
Lopez
OtherUndecided
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] February 2–12, 2024492 (RV)± 4.42%82%7%3%9%

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 1,977,961 88.3
Republican Holland Gibson134,0116.0
Republican Rufus Lopez127,9865.7
Total votes2,239,958 100.0

Democratic primary

2024 United States Senate Democratic primary in Texas
Flag of Texas.svg
  2018 March 5, 2024 (2024-03-05)2030 
  Colin Allred, official portrait, 117th Congress (3x4).jpg Sen. Roland Gutierrez (1).jpg 3x4.svg
Candidate Colin Allred Roland Gutierrez Mark Gonzalez
Popular vote569,585160,97885,228
Percentage58.9%16.6%8.8%

Senate Texas Primary Democratic 2024.svg
Results by county
Allred:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Gutierrez:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Gonzalez:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     >90%
Gomez:     20–30%
     Tied     No Votes

Previous Democratic nominee

Beto O'Rourke

Democratic nominee

Colin Allred

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Colin Allred
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Colin Allred (D)$21,371,157$12,867,031$8,504,126
Mark Gonzalez (D)$14,967 [lower-alpha 2] $11,659$3,307
Roland Gutierrez (D)$1,301,543$1,146,487$155,055
Steven Keough (D)$27,357 [lower-alpha 3] $27,730$0
Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D)$30,458$29,440$1,017
Carl Sherman (D)$173,565$150,616$22,949
Thierry Tchenko (D)$117,067$106,606$10,461
Source: Federal Election Commission [22]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Colin
Allred
Meri
Gomez
Mark
Gonzalez
Roland
Gutierrez
Carl
Sherman
OtherUndecided
UT Tyler February 18–26, 2024441 (LV)± 5.3%37%22%6%2%32%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] February 2–12, 2024354 (RV)± 5.21%52%3%5%14%2%5% [lower-alpha 4] 18%
YouGov [upper-alpha 2] January 11–24, 20241,500 (LV)± 2.5%40%4%2%12%1%3% [lower-alpha 5] 38%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 3] January 13–15, 2024460 (RV)± 4.81%29%4%6%7%2%15% [lower-alpha 6] 37%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] December 1–10, 2023415 (RV)± 4.81%28%3%2%7%2%10% [lower-alpha 7] 48%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] October 5–17, 2023409 (RV)± 4.84%21%2%2%10%2%15% [lower-alpha 8] 46%
Texas Hispanic
Policy Foundation
May 8–17, 20231,000 (RV)± 2.9%33%22%4% [lower-alpha 9] 41%

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Colin Allred 569,585 58.9
Democratic Roland Gutierrez 160,97816.6
Democratic Mark Gonzalez85,2288.8
Democratic Meri Gomez44,1664.6
Democratic Carl Sherman 31,6943.3
Democratic Robert Hassan21,8552.3
Democratic Steven Keough21,8012.3
Democratic Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman18,8011.9
Democratic Thierry Tchenko13,3951.4
Total votes967,503 100.00

Green primary

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Mason Cysewski [75]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [76] Likely RNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [77] Likely RNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [78] Likely RNovember 9, 2023
Elections Daily [79] Likely RMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [80] Lean RNovember 21, 2023

Endorsements

Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.

Colin Allred (D)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz (R)
Colin
Allred (D)
OtherUndecided
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation April 5–10, 20241,600 (LV)± 2.45%46%41%4% [lower-alpha 10] 9%
Cygnal (R) April 4–6, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.9%45%36%5% [lower-alpha 11] 14%
Marist College March 18–21, 20241,117 (RV)± 3.8%51%45%1%3%
UT Tyler February 18–26, 20241,167 (RV)± 3.2%41%41%7%12%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] February 2–12, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.49%46%32%9%13%
National Public Affairs February 6–8, 2024807 (LV)± 3.5%44%44%12%
YouGov [upper-alpha 2] January 11–24, 20241,145 (RV)± 2.5%48%39%4% [lower-alpha 12] 9%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 3] January 13–15, 20241,315 (RV)± 2.6%42%40%8%11%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] December 1–10, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.4%43%27%15% [lower-alpha 13] 15%
University of Texas at Tyler May 10–21, 20231,413 (RV)± 3.0%42%37%8% [lower-alpha 14] 14%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation May 8–17, 20231,000 (RV)± 2.9%47%40%4% [lower-alpha 15] 9%
Hypothetical polling
Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz (R)
Roland
Gutierrez (D)
OtherUndecided
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] February 2–12, 20241,200 (RV)± 3.49%45%31%9%14%
YouGov [upper-alpha 2] January 11–24, 20241,145 (RV)± 2.5%48%38%4% [lower-alpha 12] 10%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 3] January 13–15, 20241,315 (RV)± 2.6%41%40%8%11%
YouGov [upper-alpha 1] December 1–10, 20231,200 (RV)± 2.4%42%26%16% [lower-alpha 16] 17%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Texas
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Democratic Colin Allred
Total votes

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. $3,900 of this total was self-funded by Gonzalez
  3. $6,050 of this total was self-funded by Keough
  4. Steven Keough with 3%; Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman and Thierry Tchenko with 1%; Robert Hassan with 0%
  5. Robert Hassan, Steven Keough, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Thierry Tchenko with 0%
  6. Steven Keough, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Robert Hassan with 1%; "Someone else" with 8%
  7. Sherri Taylor, Victor Dunn, and John Love III with 2%; Tracy Andrus, Aaron Arguijo, and Steven Keough with 1%; Teresa Naranjo, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  8. Sherri Taylor with 3%; Tracy Andrus, Steven Keough, Teresa Naranjo, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Aaron Arguijo, John Love III, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Victor Dunn with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. John Love with 4%
  10. Ted Brown (L) with 4%
  11. Ted Brown (L) with 3%; Mason Cysewski (G) with 2%
  12. 1 2 Ted Brown (L) with 4%
  13. "Someone else" with 15%
  14. "Someone else" with 7%; Refused to answer with 1%
  15. Libertarian candidate with 2%; Green Party candidate with 2%
  16. "Someone else" with 16%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
  3. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group

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