2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

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Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

The last Republican to win this state's electoral votes was fellow Southerner George W. Bush in 2004, and the last Republican to do so by double digits was the elder Bush in 1988. Formerly a Republican stronghold, Democratic strength in the state has greatly increased over the last two decades primarily due to the rapid growth and diversification of the Northern Virginia region, which includes some of Washington, DC's largest suburbs. The downstate metro areas of Hampton Roads and Greater Richmond are also major voting blocs for Democrats in Virginia. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just over 10 points, becoming the first presidential Democrat to do so by double digits since landslide victor FDR in 1944.

Despite its Democratic lean at the federal level, Virginia could be considered a secondary battleground state and may be targeted by the GOP in 2024, mainly due to the 2021 state elections where Republicans won every statewide office being contested. ^{[1] [2]} Nonetheless, Virginia is generally expected to remain a blue state this cycle. ^[3]

Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[4]

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Virginia Republican presidential primary

The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Virginia Republican primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	440,416	63.0%	39	3	42
Nikki Haley	244,586	35.0%	6		6
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	7,494	1.1%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	3,384	0.5%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	2,503	0.4%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	853	0.1%
Total:	699,236	100.0%	45	3	48
Source: [5]

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Virginia Democratic presidential primary

The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Virginia Democratic primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	317,329	88.5%	99
Marianne Williamson	⁦28,599	8.0%
Dean Phillips	⁦12,586	3.5%
Total:	358,514	100.0%	99	19	118
Source: [6]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [7]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Likely D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Likely D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Likely D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Likely D	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Lean D	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University	December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024	812 (A)	± 5.4%	43%	40%	17%
Mason-Dixon	December 15–19, 2023	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	43%	8%
Roanoke College	November 12–20, 2023	686 (A)	± 4.3%	48%	44%	8%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,437 (RV)	–	47%	42%	11%
Research America Inc. [upper-alpha 1]	September 5–11, 2023	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	37%	37%	26%
Roanoke College	August 6–15, 2023	702 (A)	± 4.2%	51%	42%	17%
Virginia Commonwealth University	July 14–25, 2023	804 (A)	± 5.4%	43%	40%	17%
Roanoke College	May 14–23, 2023	678 (A)	± 4.4%	54%	38%	8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 7–9, 2023	500 (LV)	–	48%	41%	11%
Roanoke College	February 12–21, 2023	590 (RV)	± 4.2%	47%	46%	6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Mason-Dixon	December 15–19, 2023	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	36%	14%	8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,437 (RV)	–	40%	39%	7%	14%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Manchin Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,437 (RV)	–	37%	37%	7%	5%	14%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University	December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024	812 (A)	± 5.4%	38%	43%	19%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University	December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024	812 (A)	± 5.4%	42%	39%	19%
Research America Inc. [upper-alpha 2]	September 5–11, 2023	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	39%	30%	31%
Virginia Commonwealth University	July 14–25, 2023	804 (A)	± 5.46%	41%	41%	18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 7–9, 2023	500 (LV)	–	44%	44%	12%
Roanoke College	February 12–21, 2023	590 (RV)	± 4.2%	43%	48%	8%

Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Glenn Youngkin Republican	Other / Undecided
Research America Inc. [upper-alpha 3]	September 5–11, 2023	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	37%	34%	29%
Virginia Commonwealth University	July 14–25, 2023	804 (A)	± 5.46%	37%	44%	19%
Roanoke College	February 12–21, 2023	590 (RV)	± 4.2%	39%	55%	6%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Virginia
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

1. Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington
2. Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington
3. Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington

References

1. https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20March%202023%20Topline.pdf
2. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
3. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
4. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
5. "Virginia Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.
6. "Virginia Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.
7. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.