2024 San Francisco mayoral election

Last updated

2024 San Francisco mayoral election
Flag of San Francisco, California.svg
←  2019 November 5, 20242028 →
  Daniel Lurie Headshot (cropped).jpg Mayor London Breed official portrait 2019 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Daniel Lurie London Breed
First round102,720
26.33%		95,117
24.38%
Maximum round 182,364
55.02%		149,113
44.98%
  Aaron Peskin.jpg SupervisorMarkFarrell.jpg
Candidate Aaron Peskin Mark Farrell
First round89,215
22.86%		72,115
18.48%
Maximum round EliminatedEliminated
2024SFMayoralR1.svg
First round results by precinct
Mayor before election

London Breed
Democratic

Elected mayor

Daniel Lurie
Democratic

The 2024 San Francisco mayoral election took place on November 5, 2024, to elect the mayor of San Francisco, California. It was originally scheduled for November 7, 2023, but following the passage of Proposition H in 2022, mayoral elections were rescheduled to coincide with presidential elections. The election used ranked-choice voting.

Contents

Incumbent mayor London Breed ran for re-election to a second term in office: she was considered vulnerable, as polls had consistently shown her with low approval ratings. Breed had also faced criticism for her handling of important issues in the city, including homelessness, crime, and drug addiction. [1]

On November 7, Breed conceded the race to Daniel Lurie. [2]

Background

A survey was released by the San Francisco Controller in 2023 which reported the lowest safety rating since 1996, and the lowest government rating since 2002. [3] Polling in June reported that 64% of people did not believe London Breed should be reelected and she had a 66% disapproval rating. [4] [5]

Candidates

Debates and forums

2024 San Francisco mayoral election debates and forums
DateHostModerator(s)LinkParticipants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  W Withdrawn
London BreedMark FarrellDaniel LurieAaron PeskinAhsha Safaí
May 20, 2024
(cancelled) [16] 		TogetherSF ActionKaren Breslau
Kim-Mai Cutler		WAWWA
June 12, 2024City Arts & Lectures Heather Knight
Manny Yekutiel		 Video PPPPP
June 17, 2024San Francisco
Democratic Party		Terisa EstacioPPPPP
July 8, 2024Stop Crime Action
Stop Crime SF
ConnectedSF		Frank Noto
Amber Lee		PPPAP
Sept. 5, 2024District 8
Neighborhood Groups		Joe Fitzgerald Rodriguez Video APPPP
Sept. 11, 2024KPIX
San Francisco Examiner
KCBS		Ryan Yamamoto
Doug Sovereign
Adam Shanks		APPPP
Sept. 19, 2024 KQED
San Francisco Chronicle 		Joe Garofoli
Marisa Lagos
Scott Shafer		 Video PPPPP
Sept. 26, 2024Asian Pacific Islander Council Richard Lui
Gia Vang		PPPPP
Sept. 28, 2024San Francisco Latino Parity
and Equity Coalition		Chris Iglesias
Ani Rivera		PAPPP
Sept. 30, 2024 League of Women Voters
of San Francisco		Alison Goh
Darcy Brown		 Video APPPP

Endorsements

London Breed

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Editorial boards

Mark Farrell

Local officials

Organizations

  • Edwin M. Lee Asian Pacific Democratic Club [28]
  • GrowSF [28]
  • San Francisco Chinese American Democratic Club [43]
  • TogetherSF Action [44]

Labor unions

Daniel Lurie

Local officials

Organizations

Editorial boards

Aaron Peskin

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Ahsha Safaí

Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		RCV
round		London
Breed		Mark
Farrell		Daniel
Lurie		Aaron
Peskin		Ahsha
Safaí		OtherUndecided
David Binder Research [55] [A] October 26–27, 2024600 (LV)± 4%–23%17%26%18%4%5%7%
Public Policy Polling [56] [B] October 18–19, 2024621 (LV)± 4%–18%15%25%25%–6%11%
Sextant Strategies & Research [57] [C] October 15–16, 2024802 (LV)± 3.5%127%16%27%21%6%3%–
227%17%27%22%7%––
330%18%28%24%–––
433%–41%26%–––
544%–56%––––
Lieberman Data & Insights, Inc. [58] [D] October 9–19, 2024950 (LV)± 3.2%125%21%21%20%3%4%6%
David Binder Research [59] [A] September 28 – October 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%123%19%22%16%4%6%10%
227%23%27%18%5%––
329%24%28%20%–––
437%27%36%––––
547%–53%––––
FM3 Research (D) [60] [E] September 21–26, 2024415 (RV)± 4.9%138%19%21%18%4%–11%
239%19%21%21%–––
343%–34%23%–––
451%–49%––––
David Binder Research [61] [A] September 3–8, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%126%28%26%14%6%––
227%29%28%16%–––
333%33%34%––––
443%–57%––––
KRON4/Emerson College [62] September 5–7, 2024750 (LV)± 3.5%120.3%20.6%17.5%8.5%1.6%–26.5%
FM3 Research (D) [63] [A] August 21–28, 2024708 (LV)± 4.0%136%23%22%14%5%––
238%23%23%15%–––
344%27%28%––––
452%–48%––––
Probolsky Research [64] [F] July 30–August 7, 2024300 (RV)± 5.8%128%24%19%22%3%––
228%24%19%22%3%––
329%24%20%22%3%––
430%25%20%22%3%––
530%26%21%23%–––
636%36%–28%–––
751%49%–––––
Sextant Strategies & Research [65] [C] July 31 – August 5, 2024804 (LV)± 3.5%–28%20%17%12%5%–18%
FM3 Research (D) [66] [E] July 9–18, 20241066 (LV)± 3.1%BA [b] 24%21%16%14%7%–18%
130%26%20%16%8%––
233%27%21%19%–––
341%32%26%––––
451%49%–––––
Impact Research (D) [67] [G] June 1–6, 2024500 (LV)± 4.5%BA [b] 21%23%20%17%4%5%11%
543%57%–––––
FM3 Research (D) [68] [H] May 10–16, 2024866 (LV)± 3.5%BA [b] 19%20%17%12%4%1%28%
545%55%–––––
FM3 Research (D) [69] [E] April 29–May 5, 2024412 (RV)± 4.9%BA [b] 21%16%16%12%7%–28%
129%23%23%16%9%––
230%26%24%20%–––
339%31%30%––––
451%49%–––––
Probolsky Research [70] [F] June 16–20, 2023300 (RV)± 5.8%–26%–––29%–45%
Sextant Strategies & Research [71] [C] February 14–18, 2024812 (LV)± 3.4%–18%20%16%–8%–38%
David Binder Research (D) [72] [A] January 15–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%–26%15%21%–10%–28%

Results

Results Summary

The following table shows a summary of the instant runoff for the election. The table shows the results for the first round and the maximum round.

Municipal elections in California are officially non-partisan, though most candidates in San Francisco receive funding and support from various political parties.

2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election [73]
CandidateRound 1Round 14 (Last Round)
Votes %Votes%
Daniel Lurie 102,72026.33%182,36455.02%
London Breed (incumbent)95,11724.38%149,11344.98%
Aaron Peskin 89,21522.86%Eliminated in Round 13
Mark Farrell 72,11518.48%Eliminated in Round 12
Ahsha Safaí 11,4252.93%Eliminated in Round 11
Ellen Lee Zhou8,6652.22%Eliminated in Round 10
Dylan Hirsch-Shell2,8970.74%Eliminated in Round 9
Keith Freedman2,0790.53%Eliminated in Round 8
Nelson Mei1,7910.46%Eliminated in Round 7
Shahram Shariati1,6130.41%Eliminated in Round 6
Henry Flynn1,3190.34%Eliminated in Round 5
Paul Ybarra Robertson8120.21%Eliminated in Round 4
Jon Soderstrom4120.11%Eliminated in Round 3
Marc Roth30.00%Eliminated in Round 2
Michael Lin10.00%Eliminated in Round 1
Total Active Votes390,184100%331,477100%
Source: San Francisco Department of Elections

Voting Results by Round

The following table shows how votes were counted in a series of rounds of instant runoffs. Each voter could mark which candidates were the voter's first, second, and third choice. Each voter had one vote but could rank three candidates for which they wanted their vote cast. In each round, the vote is counted for the most preferred candidate that has not yet been eliminated. Then, one or more candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated. Votes that counted for an eliminated candidate are transferred to the voter's next most preferred candidate that has not yet been eliminated.

Continuing votes are votes that counted for a candidate in that round. Exhausted ballots represent votes that could not be transferred because a less preferred candidate was not marked on the ballot. Overvotes are votes that could not be counted for a candidate because more than one candidate was marked for a choice that was ready to be counted. Undervotes are ballots that were left blank or that only marked a choice for a write-in candidate that had not qualified as a write-in candidate.

2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election Ranked-Choice-Voting Round-by-Round Results [74]
CandidateRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7Round 8Round 9Round 10Round 11Round 12Round 13Round 14
Votes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%
Daniel Lurie 102,72026.33%+1102,72126.33%+1102,72226.33%+29102,75126.34%+62102,81326.36%+138102,95126.41%+163103,11426.46%+148103,26226.52%+439103,70126.66%+754104,45526.89%+2,291106,74627.65%+2,616109,36228.46%+41,233150,59540.84%+31,769182,36455.02%
London Breed (incumbent)95,11724.38%095,11724.38%095,11724.38%+2195,13824.39%+6495,20224.41%+9195,29324.45%+22195,51424.51%+14795,66124.57%+23695,89724.65%+57096,46724.84%+85497,32125.21%+2,59199,91226.00%+13,953113,86530.88%+35,248149,11344.98%
Aaron Peskin 89,21522.86%089,21522.86%089,21522.86%+2589,24022.87%+13389,37322.92%+12589,49822.96%+15089,64823.01%+21689,86423.08%+23490,09823.16%+71290,81023.38%+1,20992,01923.84%+4,05496,07325.00%+8,206104,27928.28%-104,279
Mark Farrell 72,11518.48%072,11518.48%072,11518.48%+4172,15618.50%+10372,25918.53%+30972,56818.62%+14872,71618.66%+18972,90518.72%+53373,43818.88%+60874,04619.06%+2,29276,33819.77%+2,54078,87820.53%-78,878
Ahsha Safaí 11,4252.93%011,4252.93%011,4252.93%+2911,4542.94%+3611,4902.95%+6411,5542.96%+39011,9443.07%+9812,0423.09%+15012,1923.13%+36412,5563.23%+1,06213,6183.53%-13,618
Ellen Lee Zhou8,6652.22%08,6652.22%08,6652.22%+498,7142.23%+568,7702.25%+1038,8732.28%+1889,0612.33%+3899,4502.43%+2999,7492.51%+34510,0942.60%-10,094
Dylan Hirsch-Shell2,8970.74%02,8970.74%+12,8980.74%+272,9250.75%+412,9660.76%+863,0520.78%+1333,1850.82%+4403,6250.93%+3143,9391.01%-3,939
Keith Freedman2,0790.53%02,0790.53%02,0790.53%+422,1210.54%+592,1800.56%+1492,3290.60%+772,4060.62%+1332,5390.65%-2,539
Nelson Mei1,7910.46%01,7910.46%01,7910.46%+181,8090.46%+651,8740.48%+741,9480.50%+952,0430.52%-2,043
Shahram Shariati1,6130.41%01,6130.41%01,6130.41%+111,6240.42%+431,6670.43%+641,7310.44%-1,731
Henry Flynn1,3190.34%01,3190.34%01,3190.34%+341,3530.35%+321,3850.36%-1,385
Paul Ybarra Robertson8120.21%08120.21%08120.21%+268380.21%-838
Jon Soderstrom4120.11%04120.11%04120.11%-412
Marc Roth30.00%030.00%-3
Michael Lin10.00%-1
Continuing Votes Total390,184390,184390,183390,123389,979389,797389,631389,348389,014388,428386,042384,225368,739331,477
Exhausted Ballots000+11+5253+133186+170356+152508+260768+3141,082+5461,628+2,3283,956+1,7345,690+15,23520,925+36,93457,859
Over Votes1,38101,38101,381+81,389+111,400+121,412+141,426+231,449+401,509+581,567+831,650+2511,901+3282,229
Under Votes18,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540018,540
Non-Transferable Total19,92119,92119,92219,98220,12620,30820,47420,75721,09121,67724,06325,88041,36678,628


Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 3 4 With undecideds

Partisan Clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by Lurie's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Peskin's campaign
  3. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the San Francisco Chronicle
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by TogetherSF Action, which endorsed Farrell
  5. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by GrowSF
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the San Francisco Deputy Sheriff’s Association
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by Farrell's campaign
  8. ↑ Poll sponsored by Neighbors for San Francisco, which endorsed Farrell and Lurie

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References

  1. ↑ Knight, Heather (December 12, 2023). "The Challengers Weighing a Run at San Francisco's Mayor". The New York Times . Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  2. ↑ "San Francisco mayoral race: Breed concedes, Lurie's lead widens". NBC Bay Area. Associated Press. November 7, 2024. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  3. ↑ "San Franciscans say they feel less safe than in over 20 years, city survey shows". San Francisco Chronicle . April 13, 2023. Archived from the original on August 17, 2023.
  4. ↑ Morris, J. D. (July 31, 2023). "Is S.F. Mayor Breed at risk of losing reelection? Here's what experts say". San Francisco Chronicle . Archived from the original on September 19, 2023.
  5. ↑ "Supervisor Ahsha Safaí Wins in a Head-to-Head Election Contest with Mayor Breed". Probolsky Research. June 23, 2023. Archived from the original on September 29, 2023.
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  7. ↑ Knight, Heather (February 13, 2024). "Will Voters in San Francisco Go for a Different Kind of Mayor?". The New York Times . Retrieved February 13, 2024.
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  10. ↑ "Sup. Aaron Peskin says he's running for San Francisco mayor". KTVU . April 3, 2024. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
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  13. ↑ Ege, Mike (January 15, 2024). "Get To Know the Longshots Running for San Francisco Mayor". The San Francisco Standard .
  14. ↑ Bajko, Matthew (June 19, 2024). "Gay underdogs qualify for San Francisco mayoral race". Bay Area Reporter . Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  15. ↑ Han, Li (April 11, 2024). "This far-right, MAGA candidate could decide the race for San Francisco mayor". The San Francisco Standard .
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  20. ↑ Morris, J.D. (October 22, 2024). "How London Breed's unpopularity and ranked-choice voting could doom her reelection bid". San Francisco Chronicle . Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Rivano Barros, Joe (October 11, 2024). "D10 Supervisor Shamann Walton endorses Breed for mayor—but also Peskin". Mission Local. Retrieved October 11, 2024.
  22. 1 2 Shanks, Adam (July 18, 2024). "Stefani endorses Farrell, Breed in mayor's race". San Francisco Examiner . Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  23. ↑ Har, Janie (October 4, 2024). "San Francisco's first Black female mayor is in a pricey battle for a second term". Associated Press . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
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  25. ↑ Toledo, Aldo (July 24, 2024). "S.F. Democratic Party gives sole election endorsement to Mayor Breed. Here's why that's a big deal". San Francisco Chronicle.
  26. ↑ "November 5, 2024 General Election Endorsements". alicebtoklas.org/. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
  27. ↑ "Black Women Organized For Political Action SF & BLKxSF Phone Bank for Mayor London Breed". mobilize.us. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  28. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 "2024 San Francisco Mayoral Race" . Retrieved October 4, 2024.
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  31. ↑ "Your 2024 Gun Sense Candidates". gunsensevoter.org. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  32. ↑ "Moms' Seal of Approval on Child Care" . Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  33. ↑ "Elect Champions for Reproductive Rights" . Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  34. ↑ "Endorsing London Breed for Mayor" . Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  35. ↑ "Endorsements - San Francisco League of Conservation Voters" . Retrieved September 8, 2024.
  36. ↑ Eskenazi, Joe (August 22, 2024). "San Francisco police union endorses Mayor Breed, but cops cry foul". Mission Local. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  37. ↑ "ENDORSEMENTS FOR THE NOVEMBER 2024 GENERAL ELECTION" . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  38. ↑ Johnson, Sydney (July 23, 2024). "SF Mayor London Breed Wins Key 'YIMBY' Endorsement After String of Misses". KQED-TV . Retrieved August 28, 2024.
  39. ↑ "November 2024 Endorsements" . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  40. ↑ "Laborers Union Local 261 Announces Final Ranked Endorsement in San Francisco Mayor's Race". Facebook . Retrieved September 17, 2024.
  41. ↑ "Ballot Recommendations Voters Guide" . Retrieved September 17, 2024.
  42. ↑ "Editorial: Reelect SF Mayor London Breed". Bay Area Reporter . October 2, 2024. Retrieved October 3, 2024.
  43. 1 2 Johnson, Sydney (August 15, 2024). "In SF Mayor's Race, Farrell Flips 2 Key Endorsements That Previously Went to Breed". KQED-TV . Retrieved September 15, 2024.
  44. ↑ "Mark Farrell for Mayor of San Francisco". July 22, 2024. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  45. ↑ "San Francisco Endorsements 2024" (PDF). Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  46. 1 2 "Who Are Safai and Farrell and Why Should We Vote for Them?". September 25, 2024. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  47. 1 2 "San Francisco Deputy Sheriffs' Association Announces Mayoral Endorsements and Denounces Current Mayor". August 23, 2024. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
  48. ↑ Justice, Tiffany (March 28, 2024). "SF mayor candidate Daniel Lurie gets big endorsement". KRON-TV . Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  49. ↑ "Endorsement: Breed is the safe choice for mayor. But if you think S.F. needs change, only one candidate fits". San Francisco Chronicle . October 16, 2024. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  50. 1 2 3 "2024 California Voter Guide: San Francisco Races" . Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  51. ↑ Smith, H.R. (October 24, 2024). "Dolores Huerta says she regrets endorsing London Breed, backs Peskin as No. 1". Mission Local. Retrieved November 3, 2024.
  52. ↑ Menconi, Keith (October 2024). "How SF mayoral candidates plan to meet 'aggressive' state housing goals". San Francisco Examiner. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  53. ↑ "NUHW endorses Aaron Peskin for San Francisco mayor" . Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  54. ↑ Eskenazi, Joe (July 16, 2024). "SEIU 1021, SF's largest union, sole-endorses Aaron Peskin". Mission Local . Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  55. ↑ David Binder Research
  56. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  57. ↑ Sextant Strategies & Research
  58. ↑ Lieberman Data & Insights, Inc.
  59. ↑ David Binder Research
  60. ↑ FM3 Research (D)
  61. ↑ David Binder Research
  62. ↑ KRON4/Emerson College
  63. ↑ FM3 Research (D)
  64. ↑ Probolsky Research
  65. ↑ Sextant Strategies & Research
  66. ↑ FM3 Research (D)
  67. ↑ Impact Research (D)
  68. ↑ FM3 Research (D)
  69. ↑ FM3 Research (D)
  70. ↑ Probolsky Research
  71. ↑ Sextant Strategies & Research
  72. ↑ David Binder Research (D)
  73. ↑ "November 5, 2024 Election Results". sfelections.org. Retrieved December 9, 2024.
  74. ↑ "RCV Results for MAYOR". sfelections.org. Retrieved January 8, 2025.

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