2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas

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Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arkansas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state, Arkansas is now a strongly red state in presidential races, becoming safely red in 2008 despite Barack Obama winning nationwide. Since 2015 following the 2014 midterms, no Democrat holds a federal nor state position in Arkansas outside of the state legislature.^{[ citation needed ]} Arkansas is expected to be securely won by the Republican candidate in 2024. ^[2]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary

The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Arkansas Democratic primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	71,978	88.5%	31
Marianne Williamson	3,883	4.8%
Dean Phillips	2,346	2.9%
Stephen Lyons	1,442	1.8%
Armando Perez-Serrato	879	1.1%
Frankie Lozada	786	1.0%
Total:	81,314	100.00%	37		37
Source: [4]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Arkansas Republican presidential primary

The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Arkansas Republican primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	204,898	76.9%	39		39
Nikki Haley	49,085	18.4%	1		1
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	7,377	2.8%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	3,162	1.2%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	860	0.3%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	600	0.2%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	183	0.1%
Doug Burgum (withdrawn)	157	0.1%
David Stuckenberg	151	0.1%
Total:	266,473	100.00%	40		40
Source: [5] [6]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [7]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Solid R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Solid R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Solid R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	435 (RV)	± 4.7%	57%	24%	19%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	600 (LV)	± 7.7%	58%	33%	9%

Hypothetical polling

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	600 (LV)	± 7.7%	49%	31%	20%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Arkansas
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. "Arkansas Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times . March 5, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
5. Yoon, Robert (March 3, 2024). "What to expect in Arkansas' state and presidential primaries". The AP. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
6. "Arkansas Presidential Primary". AP News. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
7. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.