2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	TBD
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 2,126,518 1,251,303 Percentage 61.22% 36.02%
County results Municipality results Congressional district results Precinct results Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70% No votes
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Massachusetts voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

A New England state, Massachusetts had been a Democratic leaning state since 1928, and a Democratic stronghold since 1960, and is still considered a deeply blue state today. ^[a] Democrats have consistently defeated Republicans by large margins in Massachusetts since 1996. In 2020, Biden won the state by more than 33%, the largest margin since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Harris won Massachusetts, including every county in the state, winning it by 25 points. This was an 8-point smaller margin than Biden, following a trend of blue states, such as New York, California and Illinois, shifting significantly red—possibly as a result of poor turnout for Democrats compared to 2020 and 2016. ^[1]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary

The Massachusetts Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 ^[2]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	533,096	80.5%	91		91
No Preference	60,236	9.1%	1		1
Dean Phillips	29,728	4.5%
Marianne Williamson	20,402	3.1%
Other candidates	10,135	1.5%
Cenk Uygur (write-in)	82	<0.1%
Blank ballots	8,930	1.3%
Total:	662,609	100%	92		92

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary

The Massachusetts Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Republican primary, March 5, 2024 ^[3]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	343,189	59.56%	40	0	40
Nikki Haley	211,440	36.69%	0	0	0
No Preference	5,717	0.99%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	5,217	0.91%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	3,981	0.69%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,738	0.30%	0	0	0
Other candidates	1,674	0.29%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	619	0.11%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	527	0.09%	0	0	0
Blank ballots	2,148	0.37%	0	0	0
Total:	576,250	100.00%	40	0	40

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries § Schedule

The Massachusetts Libertarian primary was held on March 5, 2024.

Massachusetts Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
No Preference	3,982	36.45%
Chase Oliver	1,453	13.30%
Jacob Hornberger	1,089	9.97%
Michael Rectenwald	546	5.00%
Lars Mapstead	399	3.65%
Mike ter Maat	314	2.87%
All Others	2,161	19.78%
Blank ballots	980	8.97%
Total:	10,924	100.00%
Source: [4]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [5]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [6]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [7]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [8]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [9]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [10]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist [11]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538 [12]	Solid D	June 11, 2024
RCP [13]	Solid D	June 26, 2024
NBC News [14]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
ActiVote [15]	October 2–30, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	66%	34%	–
Emerson College [16] [A]	October 24–26, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	59%	36%	5% [c]
				60% [d]	37%	3% [c]
ActiVote [17]	September 6 – October 16, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	67%	33%	–
MassINC Polling Group [18] [B]	September 12–18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.1%	63%	35%	2% [e]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire [19]	October 29 – November 2, 2024	744 (LV)	± 3.6%	60%	34%	–	2%	1%	3% [f]
YouGov [20] [C]	October 3–10, 2024	700 (A)	± 4.8%	56%	30%	–	2%	1%	11% [g]
Suffolk University [21] [D]	October 1–4, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	61%	32%	–	1%	0%	6% [g]
University of New Hampshire [22]	September 12–16, 2024	546 (LV)	± 4.1%	62%	31%	–	2%	0%	5%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
MassINC Polling Group [23]	October 29 – November 1, 2024	582 (LV)	± 4.9%	61%	31%	2%	0%	1%	0%	5% [h]
MassINC Polling Group [18]	September 12–18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.1%	60%	32%	3%	0%	1%	0%	4% [i]

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University [24] [D]	July 16–18, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	29%	24%
University of New Hampshire [25]	May 16–20, 2024	526 (LV)	± 4.3%	68%	32%	–
John Zogby Strategies [26] [E]	April 13–21, 2024	534 (LV)	–	55%	36%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [27]	February 29 – March 3, 2024	271 (RV)	–	58%	34%	8% [j]
		263 (LV)		59%	34%	7% [j]
University of Massachusetts Lowell [28]	October 18–25, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.1%	58%	32%	10%
Emerson College [29]	September 7–8, 2022	708 (LV)	± 3.6%	54%	34%	12%
University of Massachusetts Lowell [30]	June 7–15, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 4.0%	60%	31%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire [25]	May 16–20, 2024	526 (LV)	± 4.3%	55%	26%	10%	1%	2%	6%
MassINC Polling Group [31] [F]	March 21–29, 2024	1,002 (RV)	± 3.4%	44%	26%	7%	2%	–	21% [k]
				46% [d]	28%	9%	2%	–	15% [l]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
YouGov [32] [C]	May 17–30, 2024	700 (A)	± 4.4%	48%	27%	9%	16%
Suffolk University [33] [D]	April 16–20, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	22%	8%	18%
Suffolk University [34]	February 2–5, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	26%	9%	21%
YouGov [35] [C]	October 13–20, 2023	700 (V)	± 5.1%	43%	21%	17%	19%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [26] [E]	April 13–21, 2024	534 (LV)	–	48%	42%	10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [26] [E]	April 13–21, 2024	534 (LV)	–	46%	33%	21%

Results

Swing by county ^[36]

Legend

•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

2024 United States presidential election in Massachusetts ^[37]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	2,126,518	61.22%	4.38
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	1,251,303	36.02%	3.88
	Green-Rainbow	Jill Stein Gloria Caballero-Roca [m]	26,545	0.76%	0.25
	Independent	Shiva Ayyadurai Crystal Ellis	18,418	0.53%	N/A
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	17,735	0.51%	0.78
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz Karina Garcia	12,889	0.37%	N/A
	Write-in		20,260	0.58%	0.13
Total votes			3,473,668	100.00%	N/A

By county

County	Kamala Harris Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Barnstable	88,129	59.23%	57,451	38.61%	3,205	2.15%	30,678	20.62%	148,785
Berkshire	47,094	68.58%	19,805	28.84%	1,775	2.58%	27,289	39.74%	68,674
Bristol	137,786	49.56%	134,196	48.27%	6,035	2.17%	3,590	1.29%	278,017
Dukes	9,137	74.84%	2,745	22.48%	327	2.68%	6,392	52.36%	12,209
Essex	236,624	58.88%	155,336	38.66%	9,891	2.46%	81,288	20.22%	401,851
Franklin	28,305	67.00%	12,428	29.42%	1,515	3.59%	15,877	37.58%	42,248
Hampden	110,937	53.18%	92,474	44.33%	5,193	2.49%	18,463	8.85%	208,604
Hampshire	58,617	69.19%	23,256	27.45%	2,847	3.36%	35,361	41.74%	84,720
Middlesex	554,471	68.05%	235,118	28.85%	25,243	3.10%	319,353	39.20%	814,832
Nantucket	4,784	67.21%	2,171	30.50%	163	2.29%	2,613	36.71%	7,118
Norfolk	242,712	62.81%	132,497	34.29%	11,238	2.91%	110,215	28.52%	386,447
Plymouth	159,962	53.30%	133,544	44.50%	6,623	2.21%	26,418	8.80%	300,129
Suffolk	222,280	74.29%	66,480	22.22%	10,433	3.49%	155,800	52.07%	299,193
Worcester	225,680	53.63%	183,802	43.67%	11,359	2.70%	41,878	9.96%	420,841
Totals	2,126,518	61.22%	1,251,303	36.02%	95,847	2.76%	875,215	25.20%	3,473,668

By congressional district

Harris won all nine congressional districts. ^{[38] [ user-generated source ]}

District	Harris	Trump	Representative
1st	55.63%	41.86%	Richard Neal
2nd	60.26%	36.71%	Jim McGovern
3rd	58.10%	39.27%	Lori Trahan
4th	58.44%	38.86%	Jake Auchincloss
5th	70.85%	25.97%	Katherine Clark
6th	59.04%	38.47%	Seth Moulton
7th	79.46%	16.73%	Ayanna Pressley
8th	61.72%	35.49%	Stephen Lynch
9th	54.29%	43.58%	Bill Keating

Analysis

This was the first time that a Democrat won less than 50% of the vote in Bristol County since 1992, the closest a Republican had come to winning a single Massachusetts county since 1988, and the first time a Republican candidate won Fall River since 1924. In fact, Bristol County was originally called for Trump before additional vote counts swung it back into the Democratic margin. ^[39] In addition, it was the first time a Republican candidate won Somerset since 1956, and the first time a Republican candidate won Westport and Seekonk (all in Bristol County) since 1984. Of the 351 municipalities in Massachusetts, Trump flipped 26, while Harris flipped none. ^[40] Of the 351 municipalities in Massachusetts, 339 shifted towards Trump, while a mere 12 shifted towards Harris. Harris's largest gain was in Gosnold, where she improved the margin of victory by 12.2%, while Trump's largest gain was in Lawrence, where he cut his margin of defeat by 31%. ^[39]

Trump's gains were powered significantly by Hispanic Americans, who make up a significant percentage of Massachusetts and shifted heavily to the right in 2024. Lawrence, a heavily Dominican American city in northern Massachusetts, gave Trump 43% of the vote - over a 30% margin drop from 2020. The six most Hispanic cities in Massachusetts (namely Lawrence, Lynn, Everett, Chelsea, Holyoke, and Springfield) saw Harris' margin of victory drop a combined 18% from 2020. ^[41]

See also

• United States presidential elections in Massachusetts
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. George H.W. Bush was the last Republican presidential nominee to win any counties in Massachusetts in 1988.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Someone else" with 3%
4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
5. "Would not vote" with 1%
6. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & "Another Candidate" with 1% each
7. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) & Shiva Ayyadurai (I) with 1% each
8. "Prefer not to say" with 2%; "Another candidate" & "Would not vote for president" with 1% each
9. "Another candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
10. "Another candidate" with 5%
11. "Another candidate" & "Would not vote" with 3% each
12. "Another candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 3%
13. Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by WHDH
2. Poll sponsored by CommonWealth Beacon and WBUR
3. Poll sponsored by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Department of Political Science & WCVB-TV
4. Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
5. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
6. Poll sponsored by CommonWealth Beacon and WGBH-TV

References

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