2016 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary

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2016 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary
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42 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
  Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich
Home state New York Ohio
Delegate count228
Popular vote311,313113,783
Percentage49.3%18.0%
  Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Home state Florida Texas
Delegate count84
Popular vote112,82260,473
Percentage17.9%9.6%
2016 MA GOP presidential primary.svg
2016 MA GOP Presidential primary by town.svg
Copy of 2016 Republican Primary in Massachusetts (1).svg

The 2016 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary was held on Tuesday March 1, as one of the Republican Party's 2016 presidential primaries. Massachusetts was one of eleven states that held both their Democratic and Republican presidential primaries on that day, dubbed "Super Tuesday". 42 delegates were allocated proportionally to all candidates who received at least 5 percent of the vote in the primary.

Contents

State of the Campaign

Donald Trump won the Massachusetts primary comfortably, in keeping with polls that had shown him with double-digit leads over his primary rivals in the state. Trump's victory also reflected his relative strength among Republicans in the Northeastern United States. [1] Trump received about 49% of the vote statewide. John Kasich and Marco Rubio came in second and third, respectively, each with about 18% of the vote. Ted Cruz came in fourth with just under 10% of the vote. Of the state's 42 delegates, Trump received 22 of them, Kasich and Rubio each received eight, and Cruz received four. [2] [3]

Donald Trump enjoyed the endorsement of former Senator Scott Brown, who stumped for him in Massachusetts and New Hampshire ahead of the primary. [4]

Endorsements

John Kasich

Newspapers

Donald Trump

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

 Marco Rubio
Republican 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Ted Cruz
Republican 		John Kasich
Republican 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [7] until March 1, 2016March 1, 201618.5%45.3%11.0%15.3%
FiveThirtyEight [8] until March 1, 2016March 1, 201619.2%50.0%9.9%15.6%
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary results [9] March 1, 2016 Donald Trump48.99% John Kasich17.94% Marco Rubio17.75% Ted Cruz 9.50%, Ben Carson 2.57%, Jeb Bush 1.03%, Chris Christie 0.30%, Rand Paul 0.29%, Carly Fiorina 0.18%, Jim Gilmore 0.12%, Mike Huckabee 0.11%, Mike Huckabee 0.08%, George Pataki 0.08%, Rick Santorum 0.05%
Emerson College [10]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 408

February 26–28, 2016Donald Trump
51%		Marco Rubio

20%

John Kasich

14%

Ted Cruz 10%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 1%
UMass Amherst/WBZ [11]

Margin of error: ± 6.3% Sample size: 292

February 24–26, 2016Donald Trump
47%		Marco Rubio

15%

Ted Cruz

15%

John Kasich 11%, Ben Carson 2%, Other 7%, Don't Know 3%
Suffolk University [12]

Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500

February 24–26, 2016Donald Trump
42.6%		Marco Rubio

19.8%

John Kasich

17%

Ted Cruz 8.8%, Ben Carson 3.8%, Other 1%, Don't Know 7%
MassINC/WBUR [13]

Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 386

February 21–23, 2016Donald Trump
39%		Marco Rubio

18%

John Kasich

17%

Ted Cruz 9%, Ben Carson 5%, Don't Know 12%
Emerson College [14]

Margin of error: ± 5.7% Sample size: 289

February 19–21, 2016Donald Trump
50%		Marco Rubio

16%

John Kasich

13%

Ted Cruz 10%, Ben Carson 2%
Suffolk University [15]

Margin of error: ± ?%

Sample size: 134

November 19–22, 2015Donald Trump
32%		Marco Rubio

18%

Ted Cruz 10%Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 14%
Emerson College [16]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%

Sample size: 271

October 16–18, 2015Donald Trump
47.8%		Ben Carson

13.9%

Marco Rubio

11.8%

Jeb Bush 7.1%, Carly Fiorina 6.5%, Ted Cruz 5.1%, John Kasich 2.8%, Chris Christie 2.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.9%, Mike Huckabee 0.4%, Rand Paul 0.1%, Undecided 1.4%
Emerson College [17]

Margin of error: ± ?

Sample size: 216

March 14–19, 2015Jeb Bush
19%		Scott Walker
19%		Ben Carson

13%

Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Other/Undecided 28%
Suffolk University [18]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%

Sample size: 400

August 21–24, 2014Chris Christie
11%		Paul Ryan
11%		Jeb Bush
10.75%		Rand Paul 10.5%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Scott Walker 6.75%, Marco Rubio 5.75%, Rick Perry 4.75%, Ted Cruz 4.25%, Bobby Jindal 3.5%, Rick Santorum 2.75%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.75%, John Kasich 1%, Undecided 18.25%, Other 0.5%, Refused 0.5%
Mitt Romney
48.62%		Chris Christie

7.69%

Paul Ryan

5.54%

Jeb Bush 5.23%, Ted Cruz 3.69%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 3.38%, Bobby Jindal 3.38%, Rand Paul 3.38%, Scott Walker 3.38%, Mike Huckabee 3.08%, Marco Rubio 2.77%, Rick Perry 1.54%, John Kasich 1.23%, Rick Santorum 1.23%, Undecided 4.92%, Refused 0.92%

Analysis

Massachusetts was Trump's best Super Tuesday state. According to exit polls by Edison Research, Trump's base were white non-college voters, whom he swept with 63% of the vote in a five-way contest. [19]

According to Pew Research, Massachusetts has the lowest percentage of Evangelicals of any Super Tuesday contest, but the highest percentage of Catholics. [20]

Aside from a few Kasich-voting towns in the Boston Metro, Trump swept every town in the state.

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

  1. ↑ Nelson, Libby (March 1, 2016). "Donald Trump wins Massachusetts Republican primary". Vox. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
  2. ↑ "Massachusetts Primary Election Results 2016". The New York Times. September 29, 2016. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved April 28, 2020.
  3. ↑ Thadani, Trisha (March 1, 2016). "Massachusetts gives Trump biggest Super Tuesday win; Clinton edges Sanders". USA Today. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
  4. ↑ Strauss, Daniel. "Scott Brown to endorse Donald Trump". POLITICO. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  5. ↑ "Republicans should vote for John Kasich in N.H." The Boston Globe. January 25, 2016.
  6. ↑ "Our endorsement in GOP primary contest: Gov. John Kasich" . Retrieved February 25, 2016.
  7. ↑ RealClearPolitics
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  9. ↑ Primary results
  10. ↑ "EMERSON POLL: CRUZ CLINGS TO NARROW LEAD IN TEXAS; TRUMP ROMPS IN BAY STATE, CLINTON PULLS AWAY FROM SANDERS" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
  11. ↑ "UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters" (PDF). YouGov. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
  12. ↑ "FINAL FEBRUARY MASS. GOP LIKELY VOTERS" (PDF). Suffolk University. Retrieved February 28, 2016.
  13. ↑ "WBUR Poll: In Mass., Clinton Edges Sanders, While Trump Leads Big". WBUR. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  14. ↑ "EMERSON POLL: IN MASSACHUSETTS CLINTON, SANDERS IN A DEAD HEAT; TRUMP TROUNCES ALL GOP RIVALS" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved February 22, 2016.
  15. ↑ Suffolk University
  16. ↑ Emerson College
  17. ↑ Emerson College
  18. ↑ Suffolk University Archived 2014-08-26 at the Wayback Machine
  19. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
  20. ↑ Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 11, 2022.


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