2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary

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2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary
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16 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention
  Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich
Home state New York Ohio
Delegate count88
Popular vote19,97418,534
Percentage32.34%30.01%
  Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Home state Florida Texas
Delegate count00
Popular vote11,7815,932
Percentage19.08%9.61%
2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary - Results by municipality (shaded).svg

The 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary was held on March 1, 2016, along with ten other state nominating contests during Super Tuesday.

Contents

Donald Trump held a big edge in Vermont polls, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio splitting much of the rest of the vote. [1] However, on election day, Donald Trump only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.3%, and tied with John Kasich in the delegate count. Vermont was the only state outside of his native Ohio where Kasich won a county.

Polling

Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary results [2] March 1, 2016 Donald Trump32.34% John Kasich30.01% Marco Rubio19.08% Ted Cruz 9.61%, Ben Carson 4.13%, Jeb Bush 1.79%, Rand Paul 0.68%, Chris Christie 0.58%, Carly Fiorina 0.34%, Rick Santorum 0.27%
Castleton University/Vermont

Public Radio [3]

Margin of error: ± 9.01% Sample size: 118

February 3–17, 2016Donald Trump
32.4%		Marco Rubio

16.9%

Ted Cruz

10.5%

John Kasich 10.0%, Jeb Bush 7.7%, Ben Carson 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Carly Fiorina 1.0%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Someone else 3.3%, Not sure/Don't know 12.1%

Results

2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary
CandidateVote [4] Delegates [5]
#%
Donald Trump 19,97432.528
John Kasich 18,53430.178
Marco Rubio 11,78119.180
Ted Cruz 5,9329.660
Ben Carson 2,5514.150
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)1,1061.800
Rand Paul (withdrawn)4230.690
Chris Christie (withdrawn)3610.590
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)2120.350
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)1640.270
Write-ins3900.630
Total valid votes61,428100%16

Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 20% or more of the vote proportionally.

Analysis

Vermont's voter base is much more moderate and irreligious than the Southern Super Tuesday contests. [6] Exit polls by Edison Research showed this benefitted Trump and Kasich: Trump carried somewhat conservative voters with 35% of the vote, but John Kasich won moderates with 40% to Trump's 34%. [7] Kasich did particularly well in the populous Burlington metro, holding Trump to a narrow margin statewide.

Turnout dropped in the Vermont Republican primary compared with 2012, as some registered Republicans crossed over to vote for favorite son Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.

See also

References

  1. ↑ Cox, Amanda; Katz, Josh; Quealy, Kevin (March 1, 2016). "Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight's Final Republican Delegate Count". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved June 19, 2022.
  2. ↑ Primary results
  3. ↑ "The VPR Poll: The Races, The Issues And The Full Results". The Castleton Polling Institute. February 22, 2016. Retrieved February 23, 2016.
  4. ↑ "VT Elections Database » 2016 President Republican Primary". VT Elections Database. Retrieved June 17, 2020.
  5. ↑ "Vermont Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved June 17, 2020.
  6. ↑ Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
  7. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 19, 2022.


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