2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses

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2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses
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30 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
  Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Home state New York Florida Texas
Delegate count1476
Popular vote34,53117,94016,079
Percentage45.91%23.85%21.38%
  Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction (cropped).jpg John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg
Candidate Ben Carson John Kasich
Home state Virginia Ohio
Delegate count21
Popular vote3,6192,709
Percentage4.81%3.60%
2016 NV GOP Presidential primary.svg
2016 NV GOP Presidential primary by congressional district.svg

The 2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 23 in the U.S. state of Nevada, marking the Republican Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

With the Democratic Party having already held its Nevada caucuses three days earlier on February 20, the Republican caucus in Nevada was the only presidential primary on that day.

During the 2015 legislative session, lawmakers attempted to change the caucus into a regular primary and at a much earlier date, [1] however the bill failed to advance to a vote. [2]

Candidates

Nine candidates were eligible: [3] [4]

Debates and forums

December 15, 2015 – Las Vegas, Nevada

The fifth debate was held on December 15, 2015, at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada. [5] It was the second debate to air on CNN, and was also broadcast by Salem Radio. The debate was moderated solely by Wolf Blitzer with Dana Bash and Hugh Hewitt serving alongside as questioners. [6]

The debate was split into primetime and pre-primetime groups based on averaged polling numbers; in order to participate in the main debate, candidates had to meet one of three criteria in polls conducted between October 29 and December 13 which were recognized by CNN—either an average of at least 3.5% nationally, or at least 4% in either Iowa or New Hampshire. [7] The secondary debate featured candidates that had reached at least 1% in four separate national, Iowa, or New Hampshire polls that are recognized by CNN. [7] Paul was included in the main debate after not qualifying under the original rules because he received 5% support in Iowa in a Fox News poll. [6] [8]

The debate lineup was announced on December 13 to include Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Fiorina, Christie, Paul, and Kasich in the primetime debate, and Huckabee, Santorum, Graham, and Pataki in the undercard debate. [6] Commentators suggested that the key confrontation would be between Trump and Cruz, based on their respective polling in Iowa. [9]

Eighteen million people watched the debate, making it the third-largest audience ever for a presidential primary debate. [10] During the debate, the audible coughing was attributed to Ben Carson. His campaign admitted that they all got sick a month prior and Carson had kept the cough for weeks. The cough was "almost gone" and Carson was not really sick at the time. [11]

The undercard debate was the fourth and final debate appearance of Senator Lindsey Graham and former Governor George Pataki, who suspended their campaigns on December 21 [12] and December 29, [13] respectively.

Endorsements

Having been swept into numerous offices in the previous election, many new Nevada Republican officeholders came out in support of various candidates. Notably, there were splits among different groups of Republicans towards their endorsements. Legislators who had supported a controversial tax hike during the 2015 session came out in support of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, while those who opposed it supported Rand Paul, Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.

(Note: This list contains endorsements only for candidates who were still running at the time of the caucuses)

Ted Cruz
Statewide officials
State legislators
John Kasich
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Marco Rubio
Statewide officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
  • Former Clark County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury
  • Former North Las Vegas Mayor Shari Buck
Donald Trump
State legislators

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

 Marco Rubio
Republican 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Ted Cruz
Republican 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight until February 23, 2016February 23, 201627.1%37.1%21.0%
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary results February 23, 2016 Donald Trump45.75% Marco Rubio23.77% Ted Cruz21.30% Ben Carson 4.79%, John Kasich 3.59%
CNN/ORC [14]

Margin of error: ± 6.5%

Sample size: 245

February 10–15, 2016Donald Trump
45%		Marco Rubio

19%

Ted Cruz

17%

Ben Carson 7%, John Kasich 5%, Jeb Bush 1%, Someone else 2%, No opinion 4%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 5%

Sample size: 406

December 23–27, 2015Donald Trump
33%		Ted Cruz

20%

Marco Rubio

11%

Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, John Kasich 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Unsure 12%
Morning Consult

Margin of error: ± 4%

Sample size: 249

November 10–16, 2015Donald Trump
38%		Ben Carson

18%

Marco Rubio

12%

Ted Cruz 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Someone else 1%, Don't know/No opinion 8%
CNN/ORC [15]

Margin of error: ± 6%

Sample size: 285

October 3–10, 2015Donald Trump
38%		Ben Carson

22%

Carly Fiorina

8%

Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 2%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Chris Christie 1%, George Pataki 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, None 3%, No opinion 3%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 4%

Sample size: 623

July 12–13, 2015Donald Trump
28%		Scott Walker

15%

Ben Carson

8%

Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Ted Cruz 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, George Pataki 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Undecided 20%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 5%

Sample size: 443

March 27, 2015Ted Cruz
18%		Scott Walker
18%		Jeb Bush
16%		Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Undecided 20%
Gravis Marketing

Margin of error: ± 5%

Sample size: 438

February 21–22, 2015Scott Walker
27%		Jeb Bush

19%

Chris Christie

8%

Ted Cruz 6%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Rick Perry 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Undecided 16%

Results

Primary date: February 23, 2016
County conventions: March 12 - April 2, 2016 (presumably)
State convention: May 7–8, 2016 (presumably)
National delegates: 30

Nevada Republican precinct caucuses, February 23, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump34,53145.75%14014
Marco Rubio17,94023.77%707
Ted Cruz16,07921.30%606
Ben Carson3,6194.79%202
John Kasich2,7093.59%101
Invalid2660.35%000
Rand Paul (withdrawn)1700.23%000
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)640.08%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)500.07%000
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)220.03%000
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)210.03%000
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)110.01%000
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:75,482100.00%30030
Source: The Green Papers

Delegates were awarded to candidates who got more than 3.33% of the vote proportionally.

Donald Trump received more votes than the combined total of the 2012 Nevada caucuses, while also beating Mitt Romney's previous two records. [16] On the eve of the caucuses, Trump stopped by Palo Verde High School in Summerlin to greet voters. [17]

Results by county

CountyCruzRubioTrump
Carson City18.8%24.4%43.4%
Churchill23.13%25.35%39.88%
Clark19.10%24.58%48.93%
Douglas25.88%27.09%36.44%
Elko43.84%21.22%25.32%
Esmeralda12.16%10.81%62.16%
Eureka34.36%15.90%41.54%
Humboldt21.90%21.09%41.83%
Lander35.66%17.35%39.76%
Lincoln44.56%16.14%28.77%
Lyon24.52%17.45%48.24%
Mineral19.37%19.90%50.79%
Nye23.52%12.68%56.48%
Pershing28.28%19.66%40.69%
Storey21.07%15.20%42.93%
Washoe20.87%24.58%44.13%
White Pine26.90%22.53%39.54%
TOTAL21.38%23.85%45.91%
Source: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=32&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=2

Analysis

Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the caucuses, with Marco Rubio, who for a time lived in Nevada, coming in a distant second. According to exit polls by Edison Research, Trump won among ideologically moderate (50%) and somewhat conservative (55%) voters. [18] Trump carried white caucus-goers with 47% and Latino caucus-goers with 45%. [18] [19]

Ted Cruz won two counties, Elko and Nye, the latter of which has a large LDS population. [20] Mormon voters continued to be a strong constituency for Cruz throughout the primary.

Related Research Articles

This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls were either declared candidates, former candidates, or received media speculation about their possible candidacy. On May 4, 2016, Donald Trump became the sole contender and presumptive nominee.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries</span>

This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries. The shading for each poll indicates the candidate(s) which are within one margin of error of the poll's leader.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries</span>

This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries. For currency and accuracy, please note the specific dates for each polling as listed below. For the significance of the earliest state votes, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, see United States presidential primary – Iowa and New Hampshire. To know when any given state votes, see the timeline of primaries and caucuses.

This article contains the list of candidates associated with the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Republican Party presidential primaries</span> Selection of Republican US presidential candidate

Presidential primaries and caucuses of the Republican Party took place within all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories between February 1 and June 7, 2016. These elections selected the 2,472 delegates that were sent to the Republican National Convention. Businessman and reality television star Donald Trump won the Republican nomination for president of the United States.

The following is a timeline of major events leading up to, during, and after the 2016 United States presidential election. The election was the 58th quadrennial United States presidential election, held on November 8, 2016. The presidential primaries and caucuses were held between February 1 and June 14, 2016, staggered among the 50 states, Washington, D.C., and U.S. territories. The U.S. Congress certified the electoral result on January 6, 2017, and the new president and vice president were inaugurated on January 20, 2017.

The 2016 presidential campaign of Ben Carson, a pediatric neurosurgeon and bestselling author, was announced May 3, 2015, in an interview with a local television station in Cincinnati, Ohio. He formally announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination in the 2016 presidential election at a rally in his hometown of Detroit on May 4, 2015. On March 4, 2016, Carson officially ended his campaign in a speech at CPAC. He endorsed Donald Trump on March 11. After Trump won the general election, he selected Carson to be his Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, with Carson announcing an additional administration role overseeing the repeal and replacement of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Twelve presidential debates and nine forums were held between the candidates for the Republican Party's nomination for president in the 2016 United States presidential election, starting on August 6, 2015.

This is a list of notable political endorsements for declared candidates for the Republican primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election. Endorsements are part of the "invisible primary" process, which occurs not only long before the general election, but also largely occurs before even the caucuses and primaries have begun.

The 2016 presidential campaign of Ted Cruz, the junior United States senator from Texas, was announced on March 23, 2015. He was a candidate for the Republican Party's 2016 presidential nomination and won the second-most state contests and delegates. Cruz themed his campaign around being an outsider and a strict conservative. In the crowded early field, he chose not to directly confront the leading candidate, Donald Trump, who was also viewed as an outsider candidate. His cordial and sympathetic tone towards Trump contrasted with the more critical approach of rivals such as Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul. Had Cruz been elected, he would have been the first Cuban American U.S. president.

The 2016 presidential campaign of Marco Rubio, who is currently the senior United States senator from Florida, was formally announced on April 13, 2015, at an event at the Freedom Tower in Downtown Miami. Early polling showed Rubio, who was considered a potential candidate for Vice President by Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, as a frontrunner candidate for the Republican nomination for president of the United States in 2016 since at least the end of the 2012 election. Rubio was the second Cuban American to run for president of the United States, with Republican Ted Cruz announcing his campaign three weeks earlier. He suspended his campaign on March 15, 2016, after finishing second in Florida's primary.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">John Kasich 2016 presidential campaign</span>

The 2016 presidential campaign of John Kasich, the 69th governor of Ohio, was announced on July 21, 2015. He was a candidate for the 2016 Republican Party presidential nomination. He earned 154 delegates and won only one contest, his home state, Ohio. Kasich suspended his campaign on May 4, 2016, one day after becoming the last major challenger to Donald Trump for the nomination. Kasich vied to become the first Pennsylvania native to hold the office since James Buchanan in 1856, as well as the first from the city of Pittsburgh to do so.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary</span>

The 2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, which took place on February 9, was the second major vote of the cycle. Donald Trump was declared the winner with 35.3% of the popular vote and picked up 11 delegates, while John Kasich emerged from a pack of candidates between 10-20% to capture second place with 15.8% of the vote and picked up four delegates.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Results of the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries</span>

This article contains the results of the 2016 Republican presidential primaries and caucuses, the processes by which the Republican Party selected delegates to attend the 2016 Republican National Convention from July 18–21. The series of primaries, caucuses, and state conventions culminated in the national convention, where the delegates cast their votes to formally select a candidate. A simple majority (1,237) of the total delegate votes (2,472) was required to become the party's nominee and was achieved by the nominee, businessman Donald Trump of New York.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses</span>

The 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 1 in the U.S. state of Iowa, traditionally marking the Republican Party's first nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States presidential election in Hawaii</span> Election in Hawaii

The 2016 United States presidential election in Hawaii was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Hawaii voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College by a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Hawaii has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary</span>

The 2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary took place on February 20 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Republican Party's third nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary</span>

The 2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Florida as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Minnesota Republican presidential caucuses</span>

The 2016 Minnesota Republican presidential caucuses were held on March 1, 2016, as part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries. This event was part of the Super Tuesday elections, the day on which the greatest number of states hold primaries and caucuses. The Democratic Party held its Minnesota caucuses on the same day.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Alaska Republican presidential caucuses</span>

The 2016 Alaska Republican presidential caucuses took place on March 1, 2016 as part of "Super Tuesday." Senator Cruz won the state's caucuses by less than 1,000 votes, despite Mr. Trump enjoying the support of former Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, the 9th Governor of Alaska.

References

  1. ↑ "AB302". www.leg.state.nv.us. Retrieved April 23, 2016.
  2. ↑ "Nevada plan to dump presidential caucus falls short". Politico . Retrieved April 23, 2016.
  3. ↑ WRAL: NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots
  4. ↑ NC State Board of Elections presidential primary candidates' list (preliminary) [ permanent dead link ]
  5. ↑ "2016 Presidential Debates Fast Facts". CNN. August 20, 2015. Retrieved September 13, 2015.
  6. 1 2 3 Scott, Eugene (December 14, 2015). "Stage set for final GOP debate of 2015". CNN. Retrieved December 15, 2015.
  7. 1 2 "CNN Republican presidential debate criteria announced". CNN. November 20, 2015. Retrieved November 20, 2015.
  8. ↑ "How Rand Paul barely made it into Tuesday's main debate". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved January 2, 2016.
  9. ↑ Sahil Kapur; Michael C Bender; Kevin Cirilli (December 15, 2015). "How the Fifth Republican Debate Could Reshape the Race". Bloomberg.com/politics.
  10. ↑ "18 million watched Republican debate". USA TODAY. Retrieved December 17, 2015.
  11. ↑ "The Cough That Consumed the GOP Debate". ABC News. December 16, 2015. Retrieved December 17, 2015.
  12. ↑ "First on CNN: Graham ends his campaign for the White House". CNN. December 21, 2015.
  13. ↑ "Former ny gov. george pataki says he's planning to drop white house bid". abc13. December 29, 2015. Archived from the original on January 4, 2016. Retrieved December 29, 2015.
  14. ↑ "CNN/ORC Poll" (PDF). ORC International. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
  15. ↑ "CNN/ORC Poll". ORC International. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
  16. ↑ "Trump Has Won More Votes Than Romney Had At This Point in 2012". Weekly Standard. February 24, 2016. Retrieved April 22, 2016.
  17. ↑ Segal, Cheryl. "Trump takes caucus site by surprise". The Hill . Retrieved April 22, 2016.
  18. 1 2 "2016 Election Center". CNN . Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  19. ↑ "Donald Trump apparently won the Latino vote in Nevada. It doesn't mean Latinos suddenly love him". The Washington Post . ISSN   0190-8286 . Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  20. ↑ "LDS Enclaves". American Communities Project. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
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