2016 Arkansas Republican presidential primary

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2016 Arkansas Republican presidential primary
Flag of Arkansas.svg
  2012 March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01) 2020  
  AL
GA  

40 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
  Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz
Home state New York Texas
Delegate count1615
Popular vote134,744125,340
Percentage32.79%30.50%

  Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction (cropped).jpg
Candidate Marco Rubio Ben Carson
Home state Florida Virginia
Delegate count90
Popular vote101,91023,521
Percentage24.80%5.72%

2016 AR GOP Presidential primary.svg
Results by county

The 2016 Arkansas Republican presidential primary was won by Donald Trump with a plurality 32.8% support over Senator Ted Cruz, who competed heavily in Arkansas and hailed from neighboring Texas, with 30.5% support. While Marco Rubio earned the endorsement of Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, [1] Ted Cruz competed aggressively with Trump for the state's Evangelical base. [2]

Contents

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot. [3] [4]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

Marco Rubio
Republican
Donald Trump
Republican
Ted Cruz
Republican
Margin
FiveThirtyEight [5] until March 1, 2016March 1, 201621.6%35.1%28.3%
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary results [6] March 1, 2016 Donald Trump32.79% Ted Cruz30.50% Marco Rubio24.80% Ben Carson 5.72%, John Kasich 3.72%, Mike Huckabee 1.17%, Jeb Bush 0.58%, Rand Paul 0.28%, Chris Christie 0.15%, Carly Fiorina 0.10%, Rick Santorum 0.07%, Lindsey Graham 0.06%, Bobby Jindal 0.04%
SurveyMonkey [7]

Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 542

February 22–29, 2016Donald Trump
34%
Ted Cruz

27%

Marco Rubio

20%

Ben Carson 8%, John Kasich 4%, Undecided 6%
Talk Business/Hendrix [8]

Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 457

February 4, 2016Ted Cruz
27%
Marco Rubio
23%
Donald Trump
23%
Ben Carson 11%, Carly Fiorina 4%, John Kasich 4%, Jeb Bush 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Don't Know 6%
Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage [9]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%

Sample size: 428

August 2, 2015Donald Trump
25.5%
Mike Huckabee
21.4%
Jeb Bush

9.2%

Ted Cruz 8.7%, Ben Carson 8.2%, Scott Walker 4.2%, Rand Paul 3.8%, John Kasich 3.1%, Marco Rubio 2.9%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Rick Perry 1.5%, Carly Fiorina 1.3%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 2.2%, Undecided 3.2%
Suffolk University [10]

Margin of error: ± 7.5%

Sample size: 171

September 20–23, 2014Mike Huckabee
39.27%
Rick Perry

8.38%

Ted Cruz

7.33%

Rand Paul 6.28%, Jeb Bush 4.71%, Chris Christie 4.71%, Marco Rubio 4.71%, Paul Ryan 3.14%, Bobby Jindal 2.62%, Rick Santorum 2.09%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.57%, Scott Walker 1.57%, John Kasich 1.05%, Other 2.09%, Undecided 10.47%
Mitt Romney
32.75%
Mike Huckabee
29.24%
Ted Cruz

6.43%

Rick Perry 6.43%, Chris Christie 2.92%, Rand Paul 2.92%, Paul Ryan 2.34%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.75%, Marco Rubio 1.75%, Jeb Bush 1.17%, Rick Santorum 0.58%, Scott Walker 0.58%, Bobby Jindal 0%, John Kasich 0% Undecided 11.11%
Public Policy Polling [11]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%

Sample size: 479

August 1–3, 2014Mike Huckabee
33%
Ted Cruz

12%

Jeb Bush

10%

Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Scott Walker 6%, Bobby Jindal 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Paul Ryan 3%, Someone else/Not sure 11%
Public Policy Polling [12]

Margin of error: ± 5.4%

Sample size: 342

April 25–27, 2014Mike Huckabee
38%
Ted Cruz

14%

Rand Paul

13%

Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Paul Ryan 3%, Cliven Bundy 2%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Magellan Strategies [13]

Margin of error: ± 3.35%

Sample size: 857

April 14–15, 2014Mike Huckabee
57%
Rand Paul

9%

Jeb Bush

8%

Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Marco Rubio 5%, John Kasich 2%, Scott Walker 1%, Undecided 7%

Results

Arkansas Republican primary, March 1, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 134,74432.79%16016
Ted Cruz 125,34030.50%15015
Marco Rubio 101,91024.80%909
Ben Carson 23,5215.72%000
John Kasich 15,3053.72%000
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)4,7921.17%000
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)2,4020.58%000
Rand Paul (withdrawn)1,1510.28%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)6310.15%000
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)4110.10%000
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)2920.07%000
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)2520.06%000
Bobby Jindal (withdrawn)1690.04%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:410,920100.00%40040
Source: The Green Papers

Analysis

According to exit polls by Edison Research, Donald Trump carried 39% of non-college Republican voters in Arkansas. [14] Trump also won with 39% of veterans, [14] a key demographic for Republican candidates in the South. Cruz and Trump split Evangelical voters with 33% each, [14] which gave way to a close statewide result in the primary.

Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values. [15]

The week before the primary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, daughter of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, joined Donald Trump's campaign. [16]

See also

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References

  1. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson Endorses Marco Rubio | Marco Rubio for President , retrieved June 11, 2022
  2. Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
  3. James Jackson (November 10, 2015). "Candidates file for Arkansas primaries - News - The Sun-Times - Heber Springs, AR - Heber Springs, AR". The Sun-Times. Archived from the original on November 16, 2015. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
  4. "Washington County, AR : March 1, 2016 Republican Preferential Primary Sample Ballots". Co.washington.ar.us. Archived from the original on January 29, 2016. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
  5. FiveThirtyEight
  6. Primary results
  7. "Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday". SurveyMonkey. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
  8. "Poll: Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz hold leads in Democratic, GOP Presidential primaries" . Retrieved February 7, 2016.
  9. Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage
  10. Suffolk University Archived September 25, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  11. Public Policy Polling
  12. Public Policy Polling
  13. Magellan Strategies
  14. 1 2 3 "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
  15. Maxwell, Angie (December 30, 2020). "Why Trump Became a 'Confederate' President". The Forum. 18 (4): 493–529. doi:10.1515/for-2020-2107. ISSN   1540-8884.
  16. "Mike Huckabee's Daughter Joins Donald Trump's Campaign". Time. Retrieved June 30, 2022.