2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas

Last updated

2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas
Flag of Arkansas (1924-2011).svg
  2004 November 4, 2008 2012  
  John McCain 2009 Official.jpg Obama portrait crop.jpg
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote60
Popular vote638,017422,310
Percentage58.72%38.86%

Arkansas Presidential Election Results 2008.svg
2008 AR Pres.svg

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

Arkansas was won by Republican John McCain by a 19.86% margin of victory, an even greater margin than George W. Bush attained in 2004, despite the national Democratic trend. This was likely due to the issue of race in the presidential election. [1] Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise a red state. The state trended dramatically Republican in 2008, as McCain received over 4% more of the statewide popular vote than Bush earned in 2004 and more than doubled his margin of victory. Only five counties swung more Democratic in 2008, and the vast majority of counties swung heavily Republican, some by as much as 30%. [2] Of the ten counties with the largest percentage swing to the Republicans in the U.S. during this election, six of them were located in Arkansas. [3]

Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Arkansas. Since 1996, Arkansas has rapidly transformed from a Democratic stronghold into one of the most Republican states in the nation. It was also one of the six states where neither Obama nor McCain won during the primary season, and the strongest of five states that swung rightward in this election, the others being Oklahoma, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

Despite McCain's landslide victory in the state's presidential race, Democratic Senator Mark Pryor easily won re-election on the same ballot which he did not face Republican opposition. This was the first time Arkansas did not vote for the winner of the presidential election since 1968.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report [4] Likely R
Cook Political Report [5] Solid R
The Takeaway [6] Lean R
Electoral-vote.com [7] Lean R
Washington Post [8] Lean R
Politico [9] Solid R
RealClearPolitics [10] Lean R
FiveThirtyEight [8] Solid R
CQ Politics [11] Solid R
The New York Times [12] Solid R
CNN [13] Lean R
NPR [8] Solid R
MSNBC [8] Solid R
Fox News [14] Likely R
Associated Press [15] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports [16] Safe R

Polling

John McCain won every single opinion poll taken in Arkansas prior to the election, with leads ranging from 7% to 29%. Although, McCain polled just in the low 50% range. [17] RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 52.3% for McCain, compared to 38.8% for Obama. The margin of victory on election day was more than double of the RCP average. [18] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

Fundraising

Obama raised $1,004,783. McCain raised $934,884. Both candidates raised the most in Pulaski County. [19] [20]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent over $110,350. McCain spent only $459. [21] Neither candidate visited the state. [22]

Analysis

Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, easily carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996, the state was largely considered a safe state for McCain. Early polls gave McCain a 9-point lead among possible voters on Election Day. [23] Although the state was still strongly Democratic at the non-presidential levels, on Election Day, Arkansas voted for McCain by a margin of approximately 20%--ten points better than Bush's showing four years earlier. In this election, Arkansas voted 27.12% to the right of the nation at-large. [24]

A handful of counties — some of which had not voted for the Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon won every county in 1972 — swung safely into the GOP column. The Delta county of Jackson, for example, swung from a 14.3-point victory for Democrat Kerry in 2004 to a 16.3-point victory for McCain in 2008. Possible factors suggested for such a large swing away from the Democrats was Obama's status as the first African American major-party nominee in a historically-segregationist state still dominated by conservative whites, [25] as well as the fact that Hillary Clinton, who once served as First Lady of Arkansas while her husband was Governor, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The polls showed Clinton defeating McCain in Arkansas. Obama became the first Democrat in history to win the White House without carrying Arkansas.

During the same election, however, freshman Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor faced no Republican opposition, and was reelected in a landslide victory over Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party. The four members of the state's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives (three Democrats and one Republican) were also reelected with no major-party opposition. Republicans, however, picked up three seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives and one Democratic state representative became a Green (he later returned to the Democratic Party in 2009).

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas [26]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 638,01758.72%6
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 422,31038.86%0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 12,8821.19%0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 4,7760.44%0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle4,0230.37%0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 3,4700.32%0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Eugene Puryear 1,1390.10%0
Totals1,086,617100.00%6
Voter turnout64.52%

By county

County [27] John McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Arkansas 4,18559.97%2,61937.53%1742.49%1,56622.44%6,978
Ashley 5,40662.55%2,97634.44%2603.01%2,43028.11%8,642
Baxter 12,85264.32%6,53932.73%5902.95%6,31331.59%19,981
Benton 51,12467.20%23,33130.67%1,6182.13%27,79336.53%76,073
Boone 10,57568.34%4,43528.66%4643.00%6,14039.68%15,474
Bradley 2,26255.98%1,68041.57%992.45%58214.41%4,041
Calhoun 1,46265.94%69131.17%642.89%77134.77%2,217
Carroll 6,08357.50%4,17239.44%3243.06%1,91118.06%10,579
Chicot 2,11940.69%3,04358.43%460.88%-924-17.74%5,208
Clark 4,60850.67%4,26746.92%2192.41%3413.75%9,094
Clay 3,03255.02%2,24440.72%2354.26%78814.30%5,511
Cleburne 7,96270.22%2,95126.03%4253.75%5,01144.19%11,338
Cleveland 2,45169.93%91125.99%1434.08%1,54043.94%3,505
Columbia 5,86161.32%3,55437.18%1431.50%2,30724.14%9,558
Conway 4,69157.64%3,14938.70%2983.66%1,54218.94%8,138
Craighead 18,88160.97%11,29436.47%7932.56%7,58724.50%30,968
Crawford 14,68871.54%5,23825.51%6062.95%9,45046.03%20,532
Crittenden 7,65041.91%10,33056.59%2751.51%-2,680-14.68%18,255
Cross 4,39361.61%2,58036.19%1572.20%1,81325.42%7,130
Dallas 1,75752.95%1,47144.33%902.71%2868.62%3,318
Desha 1,99942.73%2,56954.92%1102.35%-570-12.19%4,678
Drew 3,86058.40%2,59839.30%1522.30%1,26219.10%6,610
Faulkner 25,36261.59%14,95536.32%8622.10%10,40725.27%41,179
Franklin 4,41168.12%1,86928.86%1953.01%1,17316.09%6,475
Fulton 2,70257.78%1,81938.90%1553.31%88318.88%4,676
Garland 26,82561.36%15,89936.37%9952.28%10,92624.99%43,719
Grant 5,02373.94%1,56222.99%2083.06%3,46150.95%6,793
Greene 8,57863.02%4,54133.36%4933.62%4,03729.66%13,612
Hempstead 4,27358.14%2,86939.04%2072.82%1,40419.10%7,349
Hot Spring 7,20960.30%4,28835.87%4583.83%2,92124.43%11,955
Howard 2,95761.02%1,74636.03%1432.95%1,21124.99%4,846
Independence 8,25567.12%3,68829.99%3562.89%4,56737.13%12,299
Izard 3,19361.19%1,79234.34%2334.47%1,40126.85%5,218
Jackson 3,11855.86%2,20739.54%2574.60%91116.32%5,582
Jefferson 10,65535.89%18,46562.19%5691.92%-7,810-26.30%29,689
Johnson 4,92260.17%3,03437.09%2242.74%1,88823.08%8,180
Lafayette 1,68558.06%1,13339.04%842.89%55219.02%2,902
Lawrence 3,35757.58%2,13836.67%3355.75%1,21920.91%5,830
Lee 1,45438.64%2,26360.14%461.22%-809-21.50%3,763
Lincoln 2,51357.04%1,71038.81%1834.15%80318.23%4,406
Little River 3,24763.02%1,75334.03%1522.95%1,49428.99%5,152
Logan 5,35067.66%2,28628.91%2713.43%3,06438.75%7,907
Lonoke 17,24272.63%5,96825.14%5312.24%11,27447.49%23,741
Madison 3,97262.77%2,14433.88%2123.35%1,82828.89%6,328
Marion 4,52463.17%2,38433.29%2543.55%2,14029.88%7,162
Miller 9,91365.81%4,86932.32%2811.87%5,04433.49%15,063
Mississippi 6,97649.79%6,66747.59%3672.62%3092.20%14,010
Monroe 1,75450.86%1,61546.83%802.32%1394.03%3,449
Montgomery 2,36565.30%1,09230.15%1654.56%1,27335.15%3,622
Nevada 2,06256.73%1,47440.55%992.72%58816.18%3,635
Newton 2,58865.35%1,18229.85%1904.80%1,40635.50%3,960
Ouachita 5,42754.49%4,34643.63%1871.88%1,08110.86%9,960
Perry 2,74364.10%1,35231.60%1844.30%1,39132.50%4,279
Phillips 3,09734.53%5,69563.50%1771.97%-2,598-28.97%8,969
Pike 2,72768.76%1,08927.46%1503.78%1,63841.30%3,966
Poinsett 4,90361.84%2,74234.59%2833.57%2,16127.25%7,928
Polk 5,47371.25%1,95725.48%2513.27%3,51645.77%7,681
Pope 15,56870.51%6,00227.18%5092.31%9,56643.33%22,079
Prairie 2,22365.75%1,04831.00%1103.25%1,17534.75%3,381
Pulaski 70,21243.52%88,85455.07%2,2771.41%-18,642-11.55%161,343
Randolph 3,61557.21%2,46939.07%2353.72%1,14618.14%6,319
St. Francis 3,91741.21%5,48657.72%1021.08%-1,569-16.51%9,505
Saline 30,98169.38%12,69528.43%9772.19%18,28640.95%44,653
Scott 2,51462.26%1,47336.48%511.26%1,04125.78%3,995
Searcy 2,72670.86%96124.98%1604.16%1,76545.88%3,847
Sebastian 28,63766.27%13,67331.64%9022.09%14,96434.63%43,212
Sevier 3,12568.23%1,29128.19%1643.58%1,83440.04%4,580
Sharp 4,53562.53%2,43633.59%2813.87%2,09928.94%7,252
Stone 3,53466.38%1,59830.02%1923.61%1,93636.36%5,324
Union 10,67762.15%6,19036.03%3123.61%4,48726.12%17,179
Van Buren 4,27663.79%2,15132.09%2764.12%2,12531.70%6,703
Washington 37,96355.52%29,02142.44%1,3962.04%8,94213.08%68,380
White 19,46772.22%6,73224.97%7562.80%12,73547.25%26,955
Woodruff 1,20643.68%1,41251.14%1435.18%-206-7.46%2,761
Yell 3,80863.09%2,00333.18%2253.73%1,80529.91%6,036
Totals638,01758.72%422,31038.86%26,2902.42%215,70719.86%1,086,617
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic Arkansas County Flips 2008.svg
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McCain swept every congressional district in Arkansas, three of which were held by Democrats.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
1st 58.69%38.41% Marion Berry
2nd 53.98%44.07% Vic Snyder
3rd 64.16%33.45% John Boozman
4th 58.14%39.33% Michael Avery Ross

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. [28] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin: [29]

  1. Jim Burnett
  2. Reta Hamilton
  3. Rose Bryant Jones
  4. Phyllis Kincannon
  5. Steve Lux
  6. Kermit Parks

See also

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