2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Flag of Arkansas (1924-2011).svg
  2004 November 2, 2010 2016  
Turnout47.61%
  John Boozman 109th pictorial.jpg Blanche Lincoln, 2007.jpg
Nominee John Boozman Blanche Lincoln
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote451,617288,156
Percentage57.90%36.95%

2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by county.svg
2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by congressional District.svg
Boozman:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Lincoln:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. However, the general election was won by U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator in 32 years. [1]

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff. [2]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations. [3] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign. [4]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

  • D.C. Morrison, businessman

Withdrew Before Primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
D.C.
Morrison
OtherUndecided
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010600± 5%46%37%6%11%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%35%7% (Drew Pritt)15%
Talk Business April 13, 20101,167± 3%38%31%10%20%
Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%31%25%
Research 2000 November 30 – December 2, 2009600± 4%42%26%32%

Results

Results by county:
Lincoln
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Lincoln--60-70%
Lincoln--50-60%
Lincoln--40-50%
Halter
Halter--40-50%
Halter--50-60%
Halter--60-70% Arkansas Senate Democratic primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
Lincoln
  •   Lincoln—60-70%
  •   Lincoln—50-60%
  •   Lincoln—40-50%
Halter
  •   Halter—40-50%
  •   Halter—50-60%
  •   Halter—60-70%
Democratic primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 146,579 44.51%
Democratic Bill Halter 140,081 42.53%
Democratic D.C. Morrison42,69512.96%
Total votes329,355 100.00%

Runoff

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
Undecided
Research 2000 June 2–4, 2010600± 4%45%49%6%
Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010600± 4%44%47%9%

Results

Runoff results by county:
Lincoln
Lincoln--70-80%
Lincoln--60-70%
Lincoln--50-60%
Halter
Halter--50-60%
Halter--60-70%
Halter--70-80% Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff, 2010.svg
Runoff results by county:
Lincoln
  •   Lincoln—70-80%
  •   Lincoln—60-70%
  •   Lincoln—50-60%
Halter
  •   Halter—50-60%
  •   Halter—60-70%
  •   Halter—70-80%
Democratic primary runoff results [9] [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 134,756 52.00%
Democratic Bill Halter 124,40548.00%
Total votes259,161 100.00%

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows: [18]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Randy
Alexander
Gilbert
Baker
John
Boozman
Curtis
Coleman
Kim
Hendren
Jim
Holt
Fred
Ramey
Conrad
Reynolds
OtherUndecided
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010± 4%12%46%6%19%4%13%
Talk Business April 13, 20101,357± 3%3%14%46%5%3%8%1%3%17%

Results

Results by county:
Boozman
Boozman--80-90%
Boozman--70-80%
Boozman--60-70%
Boozman--50-60%
Boozman--40-50%
Boozman--30-40%
Holt
Holt--30-40%
Holt--40-50%
Boozman/Holt tie
Boozman/Holt tie--20-30%
Baker
Baker--30-40%
Baker--50-60% Arkansas Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
Boozman
  •   Boozman—80-90%
  •   Boozman—70-80%
  •   Boozman—60-70%
  •   Boozman—50-60%
  •   Boozman—40-50%
  •   Boozman—30-40%
Holt
  •   Holt—30-40%
  •   Holt—40-50%
Boozman/Holt tie
  •   Boozman/Holt tie—20-30%
Baker
  •   Baker—30-40%
  •   Baker—50-60%
Republican primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Boozman 75,010 52.73%
Republican Jim Holt 24,82617.45%
Republican Gilbert Baker 16,54011.63%
Republican Conrad Reynolds7,1285.01%
Republican Curtis Coleman6,9284.87%
Republican Kim Hendren5,5513.90%
Republican Randy Alexander4,3893.09%
Republican Fred Ramey1,8881.33%
Total votes142,260 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators. [23] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security. [24] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks. [25]

Debates

2010 United States Senate general election in Arkansas debate
No.DateLink Democratic Republican
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Blanche Lincoln John Boozman
1October 13, 2010 c-span PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [26] Lean R (flip)October 9, 2010
Inside Elections [27] Likely R (flip)October 8, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [28] Safe R (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [29] Safe R (flip)October 9, 2010
CQ Politics [30] Lean R (flip)October 9, 2010

Fundraising

Candidate (Party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Blanche Lincoln (D)$9,508,007$8,431,989$1,886,132$0
John Boozman (R)$1,452,241$968,318$483,923$11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission [31]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
John
Boozman (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2010500± 4.5%36%55%5%4%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research October 15–19, 20101,505± 2.5%41%55%
Mason-Dixon October 15–19, 2010625± 4%34%55%6%5%
Talk Business October 14, 20101,953± 2.2%36%49%8%7%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2010500± 4.5%37%55%3%5%
Reuters/Ipsos September 17–19, 2010600± 4%39%53%1%7%
Mason-Dixon September 12–14, 2010625± 4%34%51%4%11%
Rasmussen Reports August 18, 2010500± 4.5%27%65%4%3%
Rasmussen Reports July 20, 2010500± 4.5%35%60%2%3%
Reuters/Ipsos July 16–18, 2010600± 4%35%54%1%10%
Talk Business July 17, 2010793± 3.7%32%57%5%6%
Magellan Strategies July 12, 2010879± 3.3%29%60%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports June 15, 2010500± 4.5%32%61%4%3%
Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010600± 4%38%58%4%
Rasmussen Reports [ permanent dead link ]May 19, 2010500± 4.5%28%66%2%4%
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010± 4%40%54%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%52%
Rasmussen Reports April 26, 2010500± 4.5%30%57%9%5%
Rasmussen Reports March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%51%6%7%
Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010600± 4%42%49%9%
Rasmussen Reports March 1, 2010500± 4.5%39%48%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports February 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%54%4%7%
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%33%56%11%
Hypothetical polling
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)March 20–22, 2009600± 4%48%37%16%
Public Policy Polling (report)August 21–24, 2009784± 3.5%40%42%18%
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%44%37%19%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%39%47%5%8%
Zogby (report)November 16–17, 2009501± 4.5%41%39%2%18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%41%47%6%7%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009± 4%42%41%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%39%51%3%7%
Public Policy Polling (report)January 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%35%50%15%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%33%52%6%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%40%45%6%8%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%41%49%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%51%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%53%12%4%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%40%47%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%39%45%
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
OtherUndecided
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%47%28%25%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%41%44%5%10%
Zogby (report)November 16–17, 2009501± 4.5%45%29%2%24%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%39%46%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009± 4%46%30%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%39%47%4%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%7%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%43%7%12%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%43%48%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%5%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%30%51%11%8%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%40%50%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%40%46%
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)August 21–24, 2009784± 3.5%40%41%19%
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%45%37%18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%41%43%5%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%40%44%7%9%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009± 4%44%39%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%38%48%4%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%34%50%7%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%41%43%7%10%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%47%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%48%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%32%52%8%7%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%46%
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%45%6%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%7%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%54%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%41%44%
with Bill Halter
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
John
Boozman (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%33%52%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%40%48%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%48%8%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%56%7%7%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%47%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%41%50%
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%37%44%5%13%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%46%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%44%7%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%33%48%10%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%44%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%42%42%
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%42%7%15%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%45%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%42%10%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%33%45%15%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%45%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%42%42%
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%38%9%18%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%45%44%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%37%40%10%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%37%43%11%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%41%
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%42%8%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%43%9%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%49%12%8%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%42%43%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010 [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican John Boozman 451,618 57.90% +13.83%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent)288,15636.95%-18.95%
Libertarian Trevor Drown 25,2343.24%+3.24%
Green John Gray14,4301.85%+1.85%
Write-in 5190.07%+0.04%
Total votes779,957 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Blanche Lincoln</span> American politician (born 1960)

Blanche Lambert Lincoln is an American politician who served as a United States Senator from Arkansas from 1999 to 2011. A member of the Democratic Party, she was first elected to the Senate in 1998; she was the first woman elected to the Senate from Arkansas since Hattie Caraway in 1932 and youngest woman ever elected to the Senate at age 38. She previously served in the U.S. House of Representatives, representing Arkansas's 1st congressional district from 1993 to 1997.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">John Boozman</span> American politician and optometrist (born 1950)

John Nichols Boozman is an American politician and former optometrist serving as the senior United States senator from Arkansas, a seat he has held since 2011. A member of the Republican Party, he was the U.S. representative for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district from 2001 to 2011. He is the dean of Arkansas's congressional delegation.

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References

  1. Enten, Harry (December 5, 2014). "Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 13, 2020.
  2. "Election Dates and Deadlines". Secretary of State of Arkansas. Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  3. Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
  4. DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Archived October 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine Business Week, April 1, 2010.
  5. "Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln". KATV. March 15, 2009. Archived from the original on July 6, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
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