2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

Last updated

2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Flag of Arkansas (1924-2011).svg
←  2004 November 2, 2010 2016  →
Turnout47.61%
  John Boozman 109th pictorial.jpg Blanche Lincoln, 2007 (cropped).jpg
Nominee John Boozman Blanche Lincoln
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote451,617288,156
Percentage57.90%36.95%
2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by county.svg
2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by congressional District.svg
Boozman:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Lincoln:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

This was one of the three Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that John McCain won in the 2008 presidential election along with North Dakota and West Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. Lincoln then lost the general election to U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman, whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator since the 1978 United States Senate election in Maine. [1] With Democratic Governor Mike Beebe concurrently winning re-election, this is the last time that Arkansas simultaneously voted for gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates of different political parties.

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff. [2]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations. [3] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign. [4]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

  • D.C. Morrison, businessman

Withdrew Before Primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Blanche
Lincoln		Bill
Halter		D.C.
Morrison		OtherUndecided
Research 2000 [8] May 10–12, 2010600± 5%46%37%6%—11%
Research 2000 [9] April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%35%—7% (Drew Pritt)15%
Talk Business [10] April 13, 20101,167± 3%38%31%10%—20%
Research 2000 [11] March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%31%——25%
Research 2000 [12] November 30 – December 2, 2009600± 4%42%26%——32%

Results

Results by county: Lincoln .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Halter 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Arkansas Senate Democratic primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
Lincoln
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Halter
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 146,579 44.51%
Democratic Bill Halter 140,081 42.53%
Democratic D.C. Morrison42,69512.96%
Total votes329,355 100.00%

Runoff

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Blanche
Lincoln		Bill
Halter		Undecided
Research 2000 [14] June 2–4, 2010600± 4%45%49%6%
Research 2000 [15] May 24–26, 2010600± 4%44%47%9%

Results

Runoff results by county: Lincoln 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Halter 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff, 2010.svg
Runoff results by county:
Lincoln
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Halter
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary runoff results [16] [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 134,756 52.00%
Democratic Bill Halter 124,40548.00%
Total votes259,161 100.00%

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows: [25]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Randy
Alexander		Gilbert
Baker		John
Boozman		Curtis
Coleman		Kim
Hendren		Jim
Holt		Fred
Ramey		Conrad
Reynolds		OtherUndecided
Research 2000 [26] May 10–12, 2010–± 4%—12%46%—6%19%——4%13%
Talk Business [27] April 13, 20101,357± 3%3%14%46%5%3%8%1%3%—17%

Results

Results by county: Boozman 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 80-90% Holt 30-40% 40-50% Boozman/Holt tie 20-30% Baker 30-40% 50-60% Arkansas Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
Boozman
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   80–90%
Holt
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
Boozman/Holt tie
  •   20-30%
Baker
  •   30-40%
  •   50-60%
Republican primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Boozman 75,010 52.73%
Republican Jim Holt 24,82617.45%
Republican Gilbert Baker 16,54011.63%
Republican Conrad Reynolds7,1285.01%
Republican Curtis Coleman6,9284.87%
Republican Kim Hendren5,5513.90%
Republican Randy Alexander4,3893.09%
Republican Fred Ramey1,8881.33%
Total votes142,260 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators. [32] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security, as well as trying to tie her name, and beliefs to Bill Clinton [33] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks. [34]

Debates

2010 United States Senate general election in Arkansas debate
No.DateLink Democratic Republican
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Blanche Lincoln John Boozman
1October 13, 2010 c-span [35] |c-span [36] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [37] Lean R (flip)October 9, 2010
Inside Elections [38] Likely R (flip)October 8, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [39] Safe R (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [40] Safe R (flip)October 9, 2010
CQ Politics [41] Lean R (flip)October 9, 2010

Fundraising

Candidate (Party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Blanche Lincoln (D)$9,508,007$8,431,989$1,886,132$0
John Boozman (R)$1,452,241$968,318$483,923$11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission [42]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		John
Boozman (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports [43] October 28, 2010500± 4.5%36%55%5%4%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research [44] October 15–19, 20101,505± 2.5%41%55%——
Mason-Dixon [45] October 15–19, 2010625± 4%34%55%6%5%
Talk Business [46] October 14, 20101,953± 2.2%36%49%8%7%
Rasmussen Reports [47] September 30, 2010500± 4.5%37%55%3%5%
Reuters/Ipsos [48] September 17–19, 2010600± 4%39%53%1%7%
Mason-Dixon [49] September 12–14, 2010625± 4%34%51%4%11%
Rasmussen Reports [50] August 18, 2010500± 4.5%27%65%4%3%
Rasmussen Reports [51] July 20, 2010500± 4.5%35%60%2%3%
Reuters/Ipsos [52] July 16–18, 2010600± 4%35%54%1%10%
Talk Business [53] July 17, 2010793± 3.7%32%57%5%6%
Magellan Strategies [54] July 12, 2010879± 3.3%29%60%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports [55] June 15, 2010500± 4.5%32%61%4%3%
Research 2000 [56] May 24–26, 2010600± 4%38%58%—4%
Rasmussen Reports [57] May 19, 2010500± 4.5%28%66%2%4%
Research 2000 [58] May 10–12, 2010—± 4%40%54%——
Research 2000 [59] April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%52%——
Rasmussen Reports [60] April 26, 2010500± 4.5%30%57%9%5%
Rasmussen Reports [61] March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%51%6%7%
Research 2000 [62] March 22–24, 2010600± 4%42%49%—9%
Rasmussen Reports [63] March 1, 2010500± 4.5%39%48%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports [64] February 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%54%4%7%
Public Policy Polling [65] January 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%33%56%—11%
Hypothetical polling
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		Gilbert
Baker (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)March 20–22, 2009600± 4%48%37%—16%
Public Policy Polling (report)August 21–24, 2009784± 3.5%40%42%—18%
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%44%37%—19%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%39%47%5%8%
Zogby (report)November 16–17, 2009501± 4.5%41%39%2%18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%41%47%6%7%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009—± 4%42%41%——
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%39%51%3%7%
Public Policy Polling (report)January 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%35%50%—15%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%33%52%6%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%40%45%6%8%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%41%49%—10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%51%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%53%12%4%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%40%47%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%39%45%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		Kim
Hendren (R)		OtherUndecided
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%47%28%—25%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%41%44%5%10%
Zogby (report)November 16–17, 2009501± 4.5%45%29%2%24%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%39%46%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009—± 4%46%30%——
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%39%47%4%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%7%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%43%7%12%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%43%48%—9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%5%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%30%51%11%8%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%40%50%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%40%46%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		Curtis
Coleman (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)August 21–24, 2009784± 3.5%40%41%—19%
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%45%37%—18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%41%43%5%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%40%44%7%9%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009—± 4%44%39%——
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%38%48%4%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%34%50%7%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%41%43%7%10%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%47%—9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%48%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%32%52%8%7%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%46%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Blanche
Lincoln (D)		Jim
Holt (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%45%6%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%7%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%54%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%41%44%——

with Bill Halter

Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		John
Boozman (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%33%52%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%40%48%—12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%48%8%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%56%7%7%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%47%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%41%50%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		Gilbert
Baker (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%37%44%5%13%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%46%—10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%44%7%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%33%48%10%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%44%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%42%42%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		Kim
Hendren (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%42%7%15%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%45%—11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%42%10%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%33%45%15%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%45%——
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%42%42%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		Curtis
Coleman (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%38%9%18%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%45%44%—11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%37%40%10%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%37%43%11%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%41%——
Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Halter (D)		Jim
Holt (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%42%8%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%43%9%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%49%12%8%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010—± 4%42%43%——

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010 [66]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican John Boozman 451,618 57.90% +13.83%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent)288,15636.95%−18.95%
Libertarian Trevor Drown 25,2343.24%+3.24%
Green John Gray14,4301.85%+1.85%
Write-in 5190.07%+0.04%
Total votes779,957 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. ↑ Enten, Harry (December 5, 2014). "Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 13, 2020.
  2. ↑ "Election Dates and Deadlines". Secretary of State of Arkansas. Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  3. ↑ Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
  4. ↑ DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Archived October 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine Business Week, April 1, 2010.
  5. ↑ "Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln". KATV. March 15, 2009. Archived from the original on July 6, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  6. ↑ "CNN Political Ticker - All politics, all the time - CNN.com Blogs". CNN . Archived from the original on July 15, 2012. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  7. ↑ "Many U.S. Senate candidates already running".
  8. ↑ Research 2000
  9. ↑ Research 2000
  10. ↑ Talk Business
  11. ↑ Research 2000
  12. ↑ Research 2000
  13. ↑ "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. June 18, 2010. Archived from the original on May 22, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  14. ↑ Research 2000
  15. ↑ Research 2000
  16. ↑ "Arkansas Democratic Runoff Results". Politico . June 8, 2010. Retrieved June 8, 2010.
  17. ↑ "2010 General Primary (Runoff) Election". Arkansas Secretary of State.
  18. ↑ Kraushaar, Josh (January 29, 2010). "Boozman running against Lincoln". Politico . Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  19. ↑ Stewart, Martina (September 1, 2009). "Former Arkansas GOP chair announces Senate bid". CNN. Archived from the original on December 7, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  20. ↑ Barr, Andy (June 15, 2009). "Tea party leader to run for Senate". Politico . Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  21. ↑ "Kim Hendren Announces Run for U.S. Senate". KFSM-TV. April 20, 2009. Archived from the original on December 12, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  22. ↑ Lyon, John (January 14, 2010). "Holt announces U.S. Senate campaign". Arkansas News. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  23. ↑ "Ramey Joins GOP Field for U.S. Senate". KATV. June 23, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.[ dead link ]
  24. ↑ "'Joe the Plumber' appears with Reynolds". WXVT. January 25, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  25. ↑ Moritz, Rob (December 8, 2009). "Baker Upbeat After 'Straw Poll' Win". Southwest Times Record . Archived from the original on December 15, 2017. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  26. ↑ Research 2000
  27. ↑ Talk Business
  28. ↑ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico . Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  29. ↑ "The Courier, Russellville, Ark". Couriernews.com. July 27, 2009. Archived from the original on July 8, 2011. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  30. ↑ "Trevor Drown (I) for Senate - Arkansas". Trevordrown.ning.com. January 31, 2010. Archived from the original on April 18, 2010. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  31. ↑ "John Gray for U.S. Senate". John Gray for U.S. Senate. Archived from the original on May 7, 2010. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  32. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Arkansas Senate - Boozman vs. Lincoln". Archived from the original on January 16, 2019.
  33. ↑ Demillo, Andrew (August 11, 2010). "Lincoln criticizes Boozman on Social Security". BusinessWeek. Archived from the original on August 21, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  34. ↑ Zwick, Jesse (August 31, 2010). "The Earmark Wars Continue in Arkansas". The Washington Independent. Archived from the original on August 26, 2014. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  35. ↑ c-span
  36. ↑ c-span
  37. ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  38. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  39. ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  40. ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  41. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  42. ↑ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arkansas". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  43. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  44. ↑ CNN/Time/Opinion Research
  45. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  46. ↑ Talk Business Archived July 24, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  47. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  48. ↑ Reuters/Ipsos
  49. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  50. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  51. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  52. ↑ Reuters/Ipsos
  53. ↑ Talk Business
  54. ↑ Magellan Strategies
  55. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  56. ↑ Research 2000
  57. ↑ Rasmussen Reports [ permanent dead link ]
  58. ↑ Research 2000
  59. ↑ Research 2000
  60. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  61. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  62. ↑ Research 2000
  63. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  64. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  65. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  66. ↑ "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. November 29, 2010. Archived from the original on October 23, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.

Debates

Official campaign sites

This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.