Straw poll

Last updated July 22, 2023

A straw poll, straw vote, or straw ballot is an ad hoc or unofficial vote. It is used to show the popular opinion on a certain matter, and can be used to help politicians know the majority opinion and help them decide what to say in order to gain votes.

Straw polls provide dialogue among movements within large groups.^[1]^[2] Impromptu straw polls often are taken to see if there is enough support for an idea to devote more meeting time to it, and (when not a secret ballot) for the attendees to see who is on which side of a question. However, in meetings subject to Robert's Rules of Order, motions to take straw polls are not allowed.^[3]

Among political bodies, straw polls often are scheduled for events at which many people interested in the polling question can be expected to vote. Sometimes polls conducted without ordinary voting controls in place (i.e., on an honor system, such as in online polls) are also called "straw polls".

The idiom may allude to a straw (thin plant stalk) held up to see in what direction the wind blows, in this case, the metaphorical wind of group opinion.^[4]^[5]^[6]

Per country

United States

A formal straw poll is common in American political caucuses. Such straw polls can be taken before selecting delegates and voting on resolutions. The results of straw polls are taken by the media to influence delegates in caucus later (as well as delegates to political conventions), and thus serve as important precursors. Straw polls are also scheduled informally by other organizations interested in the U.S. presidential election.

Well-known American straw polls include the Ames Straw Poll and the Texas Straw Poll, both conducted on behalf of their respective state Republican Party organizations. Being run by private organizations, they are not subject to public oversight or verifiability. However, they provide important interactive dialogue among movements within large groups, reflecting trends like organization and motivation.^[1]^[2]

The Ames straw poll achieved a reputation as a meaningful straw poll during the presidential campaign because of its large voter turnout and relatively high media recognition, as well as Iowa's being the first state to vote in caucuses before the primaries. In 2015 the Iowa Republican Party voted to abolish the poll, after a majority of presidential candidates declined to participate. The Iowa State Fair Straw Polls for both the Republican and Democratic races were conducted at the Iowa State Fair instead.

The U.S. territory of Guam holds a presidential straw poll during every presidential election, despite the island's having no official say in the election.

China

Since the 1990s, membership of the Chinese Politburo has been determined through deliberations and straw polls by incumbent and retired members of both the Politburo and the Standing Committee.^[7]^[8]

Other types of polls

Straw polls are contrasted with opinion polls, usually conducted by telephone and based on samples of the voting public. Straw polls can also be contrasted with honor-system polls (such as online polls), in which ordinary voting controls are absent. In an ordinary event-based straw poll, controls common to elections are enforced: voting twice is prohibited; polls are not open for inordinately long periods of time; interim results are not publicized before polls close; etc. Honor-system polls may be conducted wholly online, conducted at one location over a period of months, conducted with interim results publicized, or even conducted with explicit permission to vote multiple times.

The meaning of results from the varying poll types is disputed. Opinion polls are generally conducted with statistical selection controls in place and are thus called "scientific", while straw polls and honor-system polls are conducted among self-selected populations and are called "unscientific". However, as predictors of poll results among larger populations (i.e., elections), each method has known flaws.

A margin of error is intrinsic in any subset polling method, and is a mathematical function of the difference in size between the subset and the larger population; sampling error is constant across different poll methods with the same sample sizes. Selection bias, nonresponse bias, or coverage bias occurs when the conditions for subset polling significantly differ from the conditions for the larger poll or election; event-based straw polls, where registration often closely mirrors voter registration, suffer less from nonresponse bias than opinion polls, where inclusion generally means owning a landline phone, being the party that answers the phone, being willing to answer the poll questions, and being a "likely voter" based on pollster criteria. Response bias occurs when respondents do not indicate their true beliefs, such as in bias due to intentional manipulation by respondents, haste, social pressure, or confusion; such biases may be present in any polling situation. Wording of questions may also inject bias, although this is more likely in a telephone setting than in an event-based ballot setting.

By relying on identity information, such as that publicly traceable to telephone numbers or voter registration addresses and that voluntarily provided by respondents such as age and gender, polls can be made more scientific. Straw polls may be improved by: asking identity questions, tracing group-based trends, and publishing statistical studies of the data. Opinion polls may be improved by more closely mirroring the larger poll or election anticipated, such as in wording of questions and inclusion procedure. Honor-system polls may be improved by adding ordinary voting controls; for example, online polls may rely on established social-networking and identity providers for verification to minimize multiple voting.

Related Research Articles

An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.

The Iowa caucuses are biennial electoral events for members of the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. state of Iowa. Unlike primary elections in most other U.S. states, where registered voters go to polling places to cast ballots, Iowans instead gather at local caucus meetings to discuss and vote on the candidates. During both the presidential and midterm election seasons, registered Iowan voters vote in a per-precinct caucus for the party of which they are registered as a member. The caucuses are also held to select delegates to county conventions and party committees, among other party activities.

An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours to count.

A push poll is an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to manipulate or alter prospective voters' views under the guise of conducting an opinion poll. Large numbers of voters are contacted with little effort made to collect and analyze voters' response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing-based propaganda and rumor mongering, masquerading as an opinion poll. Push polls may rely on innuendo, or information gleaned from opposition research on the political opponent of the interests behind the poll.

Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.

The 2008 Iowa Democratic presidential caucus occurred on January 3, and was the state caucuses of the Iowa Democratic Party. It was the first election for the Democrats of the 2008 presidential election. Also referred to as "the First in the Nation Caucus," it was the first election of the primary season on both the Democratic and Republican sides. Of the eight major Democratic presidential candidates, then-U.S. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois received the most votes and was ultimately declared the winner of the Iowa Democratic Caucus of 2008, making him the first African American to win the caucus and the first African American to win a primary state since Jesse Jackson in 1988. Former U.S. Senator John Edwards of North Carolina came in second place and then-U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York finished third, though Clinton received more delegates than Edwards. Campaigning had begun as early as two years before the event.

The 2008 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 3, 2008. The Iowa Republican caucuses are an unofficial primary, with the delegates to the state convention selected proportionally via a straw poll. The Iowa caucuses mark the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2008 United States presidential election.

The Bradley effect is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. The theory proposes that some white voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial election to California attorney general George Deukmejian, a white person, despite Bradley being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.

The Republican Party of Iowa (RPI) is the affiliate of the United States Republican Party in Iowa. The State Central Committee is chaired by Jeff Kaufmann. The RPI operates the Republican side of the Iowa caucuses and previously sponsored the Iowa Straw Poll.

The Iowa Straw Poll was a presidential straw poll and fundraising event for the Republican Party of Iowa. It was held six times, traditionally in late summer approximately six months in advance of contested presidential Iowa caucuses, from 1979 until 2011, on the campus of Iowa State University in Ames.

The 2008 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

The 2000 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 24, 2000. The Iowa Republican caucuses are an unofficial primary, with the delegates to the state convention selected proportionally via a straw poll. The Iowa caucuses marked the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2000 United States presidential election.

The 2012 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose six electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

This is a list of straw polls that have been conducted relating to the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries.

The 2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 3, 2012.

The 2012 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Idaho voters chose four electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations considered this a state Romney would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Romney and Ryan carried Idaho with 64.09% of the popular vote to Obama's and Biden's 32.40%, thus winning the state's four electoral votes. Romney's victory in Idaho made it his fourth strongest state in the 2012 election after Utah, Wyoming and Oklahoma. He improved on McCain's performance in 2008, expanding his margin from 25.3% to 31.69% and flipping Teton County which had previously voted for Obama.

The 1996 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on February 12, 1996. The Iowa Republican caucuses are an unofficial primary, with the delegates to the state convention selected proportionally via a straw poll. The Iowa caucuses marked the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the 1996 United States presidential election.

The 2008 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election throughout all 50 states and D.C. Voters chose four representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries. The shading for each poll indicates the candidate(s) which are within one margin of error of the poll's leader.

The beer question is a thought experiment in politics that attempts to measure authenticity and likability in politicians by asking or polling voters about with which politicians they would prefer to drink beer. The question has been discussed as far back as the 2000 United States presidential election, as well as in the context of fictional political works such as The West Wing. The question has been criticized for the gender bias implicit in referencing a predominantly male drinking culture, and some have questioned the relevance of likability in choosing candidates for public office.

References

1 2 Vote on the Michigan Republican debate - The Debates - nbcnews.com
1 2 My Open Letter To Ron Paul Supporters - Political Capital with John Harwood - MSNBC.com
↑ Robert, Henry M.; et al. (2011). Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised (11th ed.). Philadelphia, PA: Da Capo Press. p. 429. ISBN 978-0-306-82020-5. A motion to take an informal straw poll to "test the water" is not in order because it neither adopts nor rejects a measure and hence is meaningless and dilatory.
↑ Christine Ammer. The American Heritage Dictionary of Idioms (New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1997)
↑ E. Cobham Brewer. Brewers Dictionary of Phrase & Fable (London: Cassell, 1894)
↑ William Safire. Safire's Political Dictionary (New York:, Random House, 1978)
↑ Li, Cheng (2016). Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership. Brookings Institution Press. ISBN 9780815726937 . Retrieved 18 October 2017.
↑ Kang Lim, Benjamin (20 November 2017). "Exclusive: China's backroom powerbrokers block reform candidates - sources". Reuters. Archived from the original on 19 October 2017. Retrieved 18 October 2017.

This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.

[msnbc-1] 1 2 Vote on the Michigan Republican debate - The Debates - nbcnews.com

[cnbc-2] 1 2 My Open Letter To Ron Paul Supporters - Political Capital with John Harwood - MSNBC.com

[3] Robert, Henry M.; et al. (2011). Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised (11th ed.). Philadelphia, PA: Da Capo Press. p. 429. ISBN 978-0-306-82020-5. A motion to take an informal straw poll to "test the water" is not in order because it neither adopts nor rejects a measure and hence is meaningless and dilatory.

[4] Christine Ammer. The American Heritage Dictionary of Idioms (New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1997)

[5] E. Cobham Brewer. Brewers Dictionary of Phrase & Fable (London: Cassell, 1894)

[6] William Safire. Safire's Political Dictionary (New York:, Random House, 1978)

[7] Li, Cheng (2016). Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership. Brookings Institution Press. ISBN 9780815726937 . Retrieved 18 October 2017.

[8] Kang Lim, Benjamin (20 November 2017). "Exclusive: China's backroom powerbrokers block reform candidates - sources". Reuters. Archived from the original on 19 October 2017. Retrieved 18 October 2017.

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]