Iowa State Fair Straw Poll

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The Iowa State Fair Straw Poll [a] is an informal poll for presidential and Iowa congressional candidates. The poll has been conducted by the Iowa Secretary of State with results posted to their website. [1] [2] It was begun in 2015 after the Republican Party of Iowa announced it would no longer hold its official Iowa Straw Poll given that a majority of presidential candidates declined to participate. [3]

Contents

2015 Results

In 2015, the State Fair poll found Donald Trump to be the most favored GOP candidate among 677 votes cast, defeating Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas). Cruz went on to win the Iowa GOP caucuses, defeating Trump by 4 percent. On the Democratic side, out of a little more than 1,000 votes total, Hillary Clinton was the most popular Democrat defeating Bernie Sanders 49 percent to 45 percent. [4] Clinton went on to defeat Sanders in the Democratic state primary by less than 1 percent. [5]

Democratic

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State [6]

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentagePlacePercentage
Hillary Clinton 11,33849.19%149.84%---0.65%
Bernie Sanders 21,21744.17%249.59%--+5.42%
Martin O'Malley 31274.67%30.54%---4.13%
Lincoln Chafee 4200.74%Withdrawn
Jim Webb 5180.66%Withdrawn

Republican

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State [7]

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentage
Donald Trump 11,83029.91%245,42724.30%-1-5.61%
Ben Carson 21,18519.37%417,3959.30%-2-10.07%
Ted Cruz 35438.88%143,16527.64%+2+14.24%
Carly Fiorina 44597.50%73,4851.86%-3-5.64%
Marco Rubio 53706.05%343,16523.12%+2+17.07%
Scott Walker 63245.30%Withdrawn
Jeb Bush 73125.10%65,2382.80%+1-2.30%
Bobby Jindal 82253.68%Withdrawn
Mike Huckabee 91883.07%93,3451.79%---1.28%
Rand Paul 101822.97%58,4814.54%+5+1.57%
John Kasich 111602.62%83,4741.86%+3-0.76%
Rick Perry 121372.24%Withdrawn
Chris Christie 13661.08%103,2841.76%+3-0.68%
Rick Santorum 14651.06%111,7830.95%+3-0.11%
Lindsey Graham 15390.64%Withdrawn
George Pataki 16240.39%Withdrawn
Mark Everson 1780.13%Withdrawn
Jim Gilmore 1810.02%12120.01%+6-0.01%

2019 Results

In 2019, the State Fair saw a record-setting attendance of just under 1.2 million people over the course of its 11-day run. The Straw Poll result was published on August 19, 2019. On the Republican side, in total 1,976 votes were cast for 2 candidates. On the Democratic side, there were 24 candidates listed in the presidential poll and 2,118 votes cast. [2] [8]

Democratic

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentage
Joe Biden 137417.7%426,29114.9%-3-2.8%
Elizabeth Warren 236417.2%332,58918.5%-1+1.3%
Pete Buttigieg 329213.8%237,57221.3%+1+7.5%
Bernie Sanders 421510.2%143,58124.7%+3+14.5%
Kamala Harris 51788.4%Withdrawn
Cory Booker 61296.1%Withdrawn
Tulsi Gabbard 71014.8%93410.2%-2-4.6%
Amy Klobuchar 8733.5%522,45412.7%+3+9.2%
Tom Steyer 9602.8%73,0611.7%+2-1.1%
Andrew Yang 10582.7%68,9145.1%+3+2.4%
Beto O'Rourke 11462.2%Withdrawn
Marianne Williamson 12331.6%Withdrawn
Steve Bullock 13331.6%Withdrawn
Julian Castro 14321.5%Withdrawn
John Delaney 15261.2%Withdrawn
Kirsten Gillibrand 16221.0%Withdrawn
Michael Bennet 17190.9%101641.0%+7-0.1%
Bill de Blasio 18180.9%Withdrawn
John Hickenlooper 19140.7%Withdrawn
Jay Inslee 20110.5%Withdrawn
Tim Ryan 2170.3%Withdrawn
Seth Moulton 2250.2%Withdrawn
Joe Sestak 2340.2%Withdrawn
Wayne Messam 2440.2%Withdrawn

Republican

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentage
Donald Trump 11,90296.26%131,42197.14%---0.88%
Bill Weld 2743.74%24251.31%---2.43%

2023 Results

Democratic

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State [9]

CandidateStraw poll results
PlaceVotesPercentage
Joe Biden 173266.97%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 220518.76%
Marianne Williamson 315614.27%

Republican

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State [9]

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentage
Donald Trump 11,50142.47%156,26051.01%--+8.54%
Ron DeSantis 254115.31%223,42021.23%--+5.92%
Tim Scott 339211.09%Withdrawn
Vivek Ramaswamy 43319.37%48,4497.66%---1.71%
Perry Johnson 52206.23%Withdrawn
Nikki Haley 61333.76%321,08519.12%+3+15.36%
Asa Hutchinson 71203.40%61910.17%+1-3.23%
Mike Pence 8972.74%Withdrawn
Doug Burgum 9962.72%Withdrawn
Will Hurd 10371.05%Withdrawn
Ryan Binkley 11270.76%57740.70%+6-0.06%
Francis Suarez 12230.65%Withdrawn
Larry Elder 13160.45%Withdrawn

Libertarian

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State [9]

CandidateStraw poll results
PlaceVotesPercentage
Chase Oliver 1 (tied)2718.88%
Raymond Dude Wagner1 (tied)2718.88%
Aaron Avouris3 (tied)117.69%
Melissa Biondi3 (tied)117.69%
Hugo Valdez Garcia5106.99%
David Reed DeSilva6 (tied)85.59%
Jon Stewart6 (tied)85.59%
David Dunlap8 (tied)64.20%
Jacob Hornberger8 (tied)64.20%
Kevin Babicz10 (tied)53.50%
Charles Griffith Ferry10 (tied)53.50%
Antonio Gagnon12 (tied)42.80%
Mike ter Maat12 (tied)42.80%
Russell DeLeon14 (tied)32.10%
Lars Mapstead14 (tied)32.10%
Joshua Rodriguez16 (tied)21.40%
Nathan J. Vaught Jr.16 (tied)21.40%
Seymour Art Lee1810.70%
Beau Lindsey19 (tied)00.00%
Kevin Tucker19 (tied)00.00%

Notes

  1. ↑ Also referred to as the Iowa Straw Poll, though that more properly is the name for the poll conducted from 1979–2011 by the Iowa State Republican Party.

References

  1. ↑ "On the Stump: The Polls are coming! The Polls are coming!". Toledo Chronicle, Tama News-Herald. August 15, 2015. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  2. 1 2 Pate, Paul (August 19, 2019). "2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 20, 2019.
  3. ↑ "It's over: the end of the Iowa Straw Poll". NBC News . June 12, 2015. Retrieved June 12, 2015.
  4. ↑ Richardson, Bradford (August 17, 2015). "Iowa State Fair attendees pick Sanders over Clinton". www.thehill.com. The Hill . Retrieved 2015-08-20.
  5. ↑ "Election 2016 - Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved March 28, 2016.
  6. ↑ "State Fair Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved October 22, 2019.
  7. ↑ "State Fair Poll Results". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved October 22, 2019.
  8. ↑ "2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll results". Siouxland News. August 19, 2019.
  9. 1 2 3 "2023 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll". Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
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