2010 United States Senate election in Nevada

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2010 United States Senate election in Nevada
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  Harry Reid official portrait 2009 (3x4).jpg Sharron Angle (3x4).jpg
Nominee Harry Reid Sharron Angle
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote362,785321,361
Percentage50.29%44.55%
2010 United States Senate election in Nevada results map by county.svg
2010 United States Senate election in Nevada results map by congressional district.svg
Reid:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Angle:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Harry Reid
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Harry Reid
Democratic

The 2010 United States Senate election in Nevada took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and Majority Leader Harry Reid won re-election to a fifth and final term. [1]

Contents

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary took place on June 8, 2010. Reid won by a large margin over a field of political unknowns.

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredHarry ReidBarbara Buckley
Mellman Group (D) [3] June 17–29, 200851%20%

Results

Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Harry Reid (incumbent) 87,401 75.3
None of These Candidates 12,34110.6
Democratic Alex Miller9,7178.4
Democratic Eduardo Hamilton4,6454.0
Democratic Carlo Poliak1,9381.7
Total votes116,042 100.0

Republican primary

The Republican primary also took place on Tuesday, June 8, 2010.

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Sharron Angle
State officials

Organizations

Individuals
Sue Lowden
U.S. Senators
State officials

Organizations

Individuals
Danny Tarkanian
State officials

Organizations

  • Armenian National Committee Political Action Committee [42]
  • Armenian Council of America Political Action Committee [43]
Individuals

Debates

Polling

Dates administeredPoll sourceTarkanianLowdenAngle
August 21, 2009 Mason Dixon/LVRJ [45] 33%14%5%
October 8, 2009Poll [46] 21%23%9%
December 2009 Mason Dixon/LVRJ [47] 24%25%13%
January 7, 2010 [48] 28%26%13%
February 24, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVRJ [49] 29%47%8%
April 11, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVRJ [50] 27%45%5%
April 26–28, 2010 Research 2000 [51] 28%38%13%
May 13, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVRJ [52] 22%30%25%
May 28, 2010 Mason Dixon/LVRJ [52] 23%30%29%
May 31 – June 2, 2010 Research 2000 [53] 24%25%34%
June 2, 2010 Suffolk University [54] 26%24%33%
June 1–3, 2010 [55] 24%23%32%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Angle 30-40% 40-50% Lowden 30-40% Tarkanian 30-40% 2010 NV US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Angle
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Lowden
  •   30–40%
  Tarkanian
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Sharron Angle 70,452 40.1
Republican Sue Lowden 45,89026.1
Republican Danny Tarkanian 40,93623.3
Republican John Chachas6,9263.9
Republican Chad Christensen4,8062.7
None of These Candidates 3,0911.8
Republican Bill Parson1,4840.8
Republican Gary Bernstein6980.4
Republican Garn Mabey 4620.3
Republican Cecilia Stern3550.2
Republican Brian Nadell2350.1
Republican Terry Suominen2240.1
Republican Gary Marinch1790.1
Total votes175,738 100.0

General election

Candidates

Campaign

In January 2009, the GOP began running an advertisement attacking President Barack Obama's proposed stimulus plan and Reid for his support of the legislation. [60] Since becoming Minority Leader (in 2004), his approval ratings had dropped below 50%. [61] A November 2007 poll showed Reid's approval rating at 39%, with 49% of voters disapproving. [62]

After the primaries, the first poll showed Angle leading by a double-digit margin. CQ Politics changed their analysis of the race from leaning Republican to a toss-up because of Angle's sharply conservative views and tendency to commit verbal gaffes; however, CQ added that if the voters treat the election as a referendum on Reid, then Angle will likely win. [63]

In 2009, Reid had been endorsed by some prominent Nevada Republicans. [64] Immediately after the primary, the Republican mayor of Reno, Bob Cashell, who had backed Lowden in the Republican primary, endorsed Reid for the general election, calling Angle an "ultra-right winger." [65] [66] Other Republicans expressed doubt about supporting Angle, citing her reputation for ideological rigidity from her years in the state legislature. [67]

One of the first general election ads attacked Angle for her stance on Social Security and Medicare. [68] In response, Angle explained that "the government must continue to keep its contract with seniors, who entered into the system on good faith and now are depending on that contract." In response to accusations that she was not mainstream enough for Nevada voters, Angle explained on a KXNT radio show that she was "more mainstream than the fellow that said tourists stink, this war is lost, and light-skinned no-Negro dialect", in reference to comments that had been made by Senator Reid. [69]

In September, Tibi Ellis, the chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus, who had been a spokesperson for Angle, criticized an Angle ad related to immigration. Ellis said, "I condemned this type of propaganda, no matter who is running them, where they blame Mexicans as the only problem and where they attack them as the only source of illegal immigration." [70]

On October 7, 2010, Republican State Senator and Minority Leader William Raggio endorsed Reid. [71] [72] Dema Guinn, the widow of the late Republican Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn, endorsed Reid on October 8. [73]

Endorsements

Harry Reid (D)

Newspapers

Sharron Angle (R)
State officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Debate

Angle and Reid only agreed to one debate, in which no other candidate would participate. It was held on October 14. [77] Junior Senator John Ensign played Reid during one day of debate preparation at the Trump Plaza in Las Vegas for Angle. [78]

Polling

Graphical summary

%support010203040506012/9/20097/12/20109/14/201010/25/2010ReidOthersAngleUndecidedOpinion polling for the 2010 United States S...
View source data.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin of
error		Harry
Reid (D)		Sharron
Angle (R)		OthersUndecided
Rasmussen Reports [79] December 9, 2009500 (LV)±4.5%43%47%7%3%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [80] January 5–7, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%40%45%–15%
Rasmussen Reports [81] January 11, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%40%44%10%7%
Rasmussen Reports [82] February 3, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%40%44%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports [83] March 3, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%38%46%11%5%
Rasmussen Reports [84] March 31, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%40%51%6%3%
Rasmussen Reports [82] April 27, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%40%48%7%4%
Research 2000 (Daily Kos) [85] April 26–28, 2010600 (LV)±4.0%41%44%9%6%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [86] May 24–26, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%42%39%9%10%
Research 2000 (Daily Kos) [87] May 31 – June 2, 2010600 (LV)±4.0%42%37%10%8%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [88] June 1–3, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%41%44%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports [89] June 9, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%39%50%5%6%
Rasmussen Reports [90] June 22, 2010500 (LV)±4.5%41%48%8%2%
Rasmussen Reports [91] July 12, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%43%46%6%5%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [92] [93] July 12–14, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%44%37%9%10%
Public Policy Polling [94] July 16–18, 2010630 (RV)±3.9%48%46%–6%
Rasmussen Reports [82] July 27, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%45%43%7%4%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [95] July 28–30, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%43%42%9%6%
Ipsos (Reuters) [96] [97] July 30–August 1, 2010462 (LV)±4.6%48%44%2%7%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [98] August 9–11, 2010625 (RV)±4.0%46%44%5%5%
Rasmussen Reports [99] August 16, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%47%47%5%2%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [100] [101] August 23–25, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%45%44%6%5%
Rasmussen Reports [102] September 1, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%45%45%5%6%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [103] [104] September 7–9, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%46%44%4%6%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News) [105] September 11, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%44%45%8%2%
Rasmussen Reports [106] September 13, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%48%48%2%3%
Opinion Research (CNN/Time) [107] September 10–14, 2010789 (LV)±3.5%41%42%16%1%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News) [108] September 18, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%45%46%5%4%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [109] September 20–22, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%43%43%6%8%
Public Opinion Strategies (Las Vegas Sun) [110] September 21–23, 2010500 (LV)±4.4%45%40%8%7%
Rasmussen Reports [111] September 28, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%48%47%4%1%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News) [108] October 2, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%46%49%5%0%
Magellan Strategies [112] October 4, 20101,408 (V)±2.6%43%48%5%4%
Rasmussen Reports [111] October 5, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%46%50%2%2%
Public Policy Polling [113] October 7–9, 2010504 (LV)±4.4%47%45%7%1%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News) [108] October 9, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%47%49%4%0%
Rasmussen Reports [111] October 11, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%48%49%1%2%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [114] [115] October 11–12, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%45%47%4%4%
Rasmussen Reports [111] October 17, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%47%50%2%1%
Rasmussen Reports [111] October 25, 2010750 (LV)±4.0%45%49%4%2%
Opinion Research (CNN/Time) [116] October 20–26, 2010773 (LV)±3.5%45%49%5%1%
Mason-Dixon (Las Vegas Review-Journal) [117] [118] October 25–27, 2010625 (LV)±4.0%45%49%3%3%
Pulse Opinion Research, (Fox News) [119] October 30, 20101,000 (LV)±3.0%45%48%7%0%
Public Policy Polling [120] October 30–31, 2010682 (LV)±3.8%46%47%6%1%

Predictions

Reid was initially considered vulnerable, with the non-partisan Cook Political Report rating the election as a tossup [121] and the Rothenberg Political Report rating the state as tossup. [122] A June 9, 2010, Rasmussen Reports post-primary poll showed Angle leading incumbent Senator Harry Reid by a margin of 50% to 39%. [123] However, a July 2010 poll showed Senator Reid leading Angle by 7 points, following nationwide attention to some of Angle's positions, [124] as well as the endorsement of Reid by prominent Republicans. The change of margin, 18% in less than a month, is the largest in Senate elections history. [124] On July 28, 2010, Rasmussen Reports moved the race from tossup to leans Democratic. [125] Later, it moved back to tossup. Polls generally had Angle up, and thus Reid seemed like the underdog. Journalist Jon Ralston correctly predicted Reid would win based on early voting numbers and Reid running a strong campaign. [126]

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [127] TossupOctober 26, 2010
Rothenberg [128] TossupOctober 22, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [129] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [130] TossupOctober 26, 2010
CQ Politics [131] TossupOctober 26, 2010
New York Times [132] TossupNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [132] Likely R (flip)November 1, 2010

Results

Despite Angle leading by three points in the polls the days leading up to the election, Reid defeated Angle by 5.74%, even defeating Angle in her own county, Washoe County. Reid also secured huge numbers out of the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, which covers the Las Vegas Metropolitan Area.

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010 [133] [134]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Harry Reid (incumbent) 362,785 50.29 –10.84
Republican Sharron Angle 321,36144.55+9.45
None of These Candidates 16,1742.25+0.6
Tea Party of Nevada Scott Ashjian 5,8110.81N/a
Independent Michael L. Haines4,2610.59N/a
Independent American Timothy Fasano3,1850.44N/a
Independent Jesse Holland3,1750.44N/a
Independent Jeffery C. Reeves2,5100.35N/a
Independent Wil Stand2,1190.29N/a
Total votes721,381 100.0
Democratic hold

By county

CountyReid%Angle%Others%
Carson City 8,71444.64%9,36247.96%1,4437.39%
Churchill 2,47327.80%5,63963.40%7838.80%
Clark 253,61754.41%192,51641.30%20,0304.30%
Douglas 7,53034.57%12,85859.04%1,3926.39%
Elko 3,24625.24%8,17363.56%1,44011.20%
Esmeralda 8020.15%26867.51%4912.34%
Eureka 13718.05%52469.04%9812.91%
Humboldt 1,60032.12%2,83656.92%54610.96%
Lander 48725.60%1,20163.14%21411.25%
Lincoln 44222.68%1,31167.27%19610.06%
Lyon 5,65932.39%10,47359.95%1,3397.66%
Mineral 85544.93%82243.19%22611.88%
Nye 5,27936.66%7,82254.32%1,2989.01%
Pershing 59734.39%91552.71%22412.90%
Storey 84339.50%1,12452.67%1677.83%
Washoe 70,52349.91%63,31644.81%7,4485.27%
White Pine 70321.51%2,20167.33%36511.17%

[135]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Analysis

In its analysis of Reid's victory over Angle, Politico reported that the Reid campaign had placed advertisements opposing Angle's main primary opponent, Sue Lowden. The purpose of the ads was to enhance the "polarizing" Angle's chances of winning the Republican nomination. [136]

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Sharron Angle (R)$27,797,915$27,505,917$291,999$635,737
Harry Reid (D)$19,185,317$22,325,360$176,309$419,093
Source: Federal Election Commission [137]

Notes

  1. ↑ Only top two candidates
  2. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ Damon, Anjeanette; Demirjian, Karoun (November 2, 2010). "Sen. Harry Reid wins fifth term against anti-incumbent fervor". Las Vegas Sun. Archived from the original on November 5, 2010. Retrieved August 29, 2011.
  2. ↑ "2010 Elections, Senate, Nevada". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved June 11, 2010.
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  13. ↑ [ dead link ]
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