2016 United States Senate election in Nevada

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2016 United States Senate election in Nevada
Flag of Nevada.svg
  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  
  Catherine Cortez Masto official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Heck (cropped).jpg
Nominee Catherine Cortez Masto Joe Heck
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote521,994495,079
Percentage47.10%44.67%

2016 United States Senate election in Nevada results map by county.svg
2016 Senate Election in Nevada by Congressional District.svg
NV Senate 2016.svg
Cortez Masto:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Heck:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Harry Reid
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Catherine Cortez Masto
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Nevada was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The state primary election was held June 14, 2016. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Harry Reid, the Senate Minority Leader and former Senate Majority Leader, initially said he would seek re-election to a sixth term, but announced on March 26, 2015, that he would retire instead. [2] [3] Democratic former State Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican U.S. Representative Joe Heck in the general election on November 8, 2016. Heck won sixteen of the state's seventeen counties; however, since Cortez Masto won Clark County, which comprises nearly three-quarters of the state's population, she defeated Heck statewide by almost 27,000 votes, and became the first female and first Latina senator in Nevada's history. As of 2023, this would be the last time Washoe County voted for a Republican Senate candidate.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Democratic endorsements

Catherine Cortez Masto

U.S. presidents

U.S. vice presidents

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

State legislators

Organizations

Results

Results by county:
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Cortez Masto--80-90%
Cortez Masto--70-80%
Cortez Masto--60-70%
Cortez Masto--50-60%
Cortez Masto--<40% Nevada U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2016.svg
Results by county:
  Cortez Masto—80–90%
  Cortez Masto—70–80%
  Cortez Masto—60–70%
  Cortez Masto—50–60%
  Cortez Masto—<40%
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Catherine Cortez Masto 81,944 81.0%
Democratic Allen Rheinhart5,6456.0%
Democratic None of these candidates5,4985.0%
Democratic Liddo Susan O'Briant4,8345.0%
Democratic Bobby Mahendra3,7603.0%
Total votes101,681 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Sharron Angle, former state assemblywoman, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for NV-02 in 2006 [35]
  • D'Nese Davis, artist and teacher [5]
  • Eddie Hamilton, retired auto executive and perennial candidate [5] [36]
  • Joe Heck, U.S. representative [37]
  • Thomas "Sad Tom" Heck, retired air force officer [5] [38]
  • Robert Leeds, author, retired Merchant Marine and perennial candidate [5]
  • Carlo "Mazunga" Poliak, retired sanitation worker and perennial candidate [5]
  • Juston Preble, sales consultant [5]
  • Bill Tarbell, retired minister and candidate for governor in 2014 [5]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Heck

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Mayors

Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Joe
Heck
Sharron
Angle
OtherUndecided
Public Opinion Strategies [61] March 28–30, 2016500± 4.38%67%11%3%17%

Results

Results by county:
Heck--70-80%
Heck--60-70%
Heck--50-60%
Heck--40-50% Nevada U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2016.svg
Results by county:
  Heck—70–80%
  Heck—60–70%
  Heck—50–60%
  Heck—40–50%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Joe Heck 74,517 65.0%
Republican Sharron Angle26,14223.0%
Republican None of these candidates3,9023.0%
Republican Thomas Heck3,5703.0%
Republican Eddie Hamilton2,5072.0%
Republican D'Nese Davis1,9371.8%
Republican Bill Tarbell1,1791.0%
Republican Robert Leeds6620.6%
Republican Juston Preble5820.5%
Republican Carlo Poliak2790.2%
Total votes114,827 100.0%

Independent American primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Tom Jones, retired businessman and perennial candidate [62]

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declined

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Tony Gumina, physician and businessman [5]
  • Tom Sawyer, retired railroad worker [5]
  • G.A. Villa [5] (not on final ballot) [65]
  • Jarrod M. Williams, veteran [5] [66]

General election

Debates

DatesLocationCortez MastoHeckLink
October 14, 2016 North Las Vegas, Nevada ParticipantParticipant [67]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [68] TossupNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [69] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [70] TossupNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [71] Lean DNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [72] TossupNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)
Joe
Heck (R)
None of These
Candidates
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [73] November 1–7, 20161,207 (LV)± 4.6%50%45%5%
Gravis Marketing [74] November 3–6, 20161,158 (LV)± 2.9%49%43%8%
SurveyMonkey [75] October 31 – November 6, 20161,124 (LV)± 4.6%49%46%5%
Emerson College [76] November 4–5, 2016600 (LV)± 3.9%48%47%3% [b] 1%
SurveyMonkey [77] October 28 – November 3, 20161,016 (LV)± 4.6%49%46%5%
SurveyMonkey [78] October 27 – November 2, 2016937 (LV)± 4.6%48%47%5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [79] October 31 – November 1, 2016688 (LV)± 3.7%47%44%9%
JMC Analytics & Polling (R) [80] [A] October 28 – November 1, 2016600 (LV)± 4.0%45%43%3%1%7%
The Times Picayune/Lucid [81] October 28 – November 1, 2016892 (LV)± 3.0%47%41%13%
CNN/ORC [82] October 27 – November 1, 2016790 (LV)± 3.5%47%49%3% [c] 1%
860 (RV)47%48%4% [d] 1%
SurveyMonkey [83] October 26 – November 1, 2016994 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%6%
SurveyMonkey [84] October 25–31, 20161,010 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%6%
Emerson College [85] October 26–27, 2016550 (LV)± 4.1%44%48%3% [e] 6%
Gravis Marketing (R) [86] [B] October 25, 2016875 (RV)± 3.3%50%44%6%
Marist College [87] October 20–24, 2016707 (LV)± 3.7%42%49%4%5%
985 (RV)± 3.1%42%47%4%6%
Bendixen & Amandi International [88] [C] October 20–23, 2016800 (LV)± 3.5%45%44%2%9%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [89] [D] October 20–22, 2016826 (LV)± 3.5%43%41%7% [f] 8%
Monmouth University [90] October 14–17, 2016413 (LV)± 4.8%42%45%5%4% [g] 4%
CNN/ORC [91] October 10–15, 2016698 (LV)± 3.5%52%45%2% [h] 1%
862 (RV)50%44%4% [i] 2%
CBS News/YouGov [92] October 12–14, 2016996 (LV)± 4.5%39%39%4% [j] 18%
JMC Analytics & Polling (R) [93] [A] October 10–13, 2016600 (LV)± 4.0%40%35%4%6% [k] 16%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [94] [E] October 11–12, 2016600 (RV)± 4.0%44%47%2%2% [l] 5%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [95] [F] October 10–11, 20161,010 (LV)± 3.1%41%40%8% [m] 11%
Public Policy Polling (D) [96] [G] October 10–11, 2016986 (LV)± 3.1%43%39%18%
Emerson College [97] October 2–4, 2016700 (LV)± 3.6%41%45%7%7%
Hart Research Associates (D) [98] September 27 – October 2, 2016700 (LV)± 3.2%46%47%7%
Bendixen & Amandi International [99] [C] September 27–29, 2016800 (LV)± 3.5%45%47%8%
Suffolk University [100] September 27–29, 2016500 (LV)± 4.4%35%38%4%5% [n] 18%
Fox News [101] September 18–20, 2016704 (LV)± 3.5%36%43%5%7%8%
805 (RV)34%41%8%7%10%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [102] [D] September 16–18, 2016800 (LV)± 4.0%40%44%6% [o] 11%
Insights West [103] September 12–14, 2016398 (LV)± 4.9%39%43%4% [p] 14%
Monmouth University [104] September 11–13, 2016406 (LV)± 4.9%43%46%3%4% [q] 4%
GQR Research (D) [105] [F] September 6–8, 2016600 (LV)± 4.0%49%47%4%
Marist College [106] September 6–8, 2016627 (LV)± 3.9%45%47%1%7%
915 (RV)± 3.2%46%45%1%8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [107] September 6–7, 2016815 (LV)± 3.4%42%41%16%
Suffolk University [108] August 15–17, 2016500 (LV)± 4.4%37%37%6%6% [r] 14%
CBS News/YouGov [109] August 2–5, 2016993 (LV)± 4.6%35%38%4% [s] 23%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [110] [D] July 29–31, 2016750 (LV)± 4.0%41%42%6% [t] 11%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [111] [D] July 22–24, 2016750 (LV)± 4.0%37%46%5% [u] 12%
Monmouth University [112] July 7–10, 2016408 (LV)± 4.9%40%42%6%6% [v] 7%
GQR Research (D) [113] [H] June 11–20, 2016300 (LV)± 5.7%41%46%
Gravis Marketing [114] May 24–25, 20161,637 (RV)± 2.0%45%43%12%
Gravis Marketing [115] February 14–15, 20161,366 (LV)± 3.0%41%44%15%
Gravis Marketing [116] December 23–27, 2015909 (LV)± 3.0%37%47%16%
Public Policy Polling (D) [117] July 13–14, 2015677 (V)± 3.8%42%41%
Hypothetical polling

with Harry Reid

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Harry
Reid (D)
Brian
Krolicki (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [118] February 21–22, 2015955± 3%45%46%8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Harry
Reid (D)
Adam
Laxalt (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [118] February 21–22, 2015955± 3%46%48%6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Harry
Reid (D)
Brian
Sandoval (R)
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling [119] July 26–29, 2014602± 3.99%43%53%4%

with Dina Titus

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dina
Titus (D)
Sharron
Angle (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [120] March 27, 2015850± 3%54%31%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dina
Titus (D)
Adam
Laxalt (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [120] March 27, 2015850± 3%46%44%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dina
Titus (D)
Michael
Roberson (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [120] March 27, 2015850± 3%48%41%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dina
Titus (D)
Brian
Sandoval (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [120] March 27, 2015850± 3%37%55%8%

with Catherine Cortez Masto

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)
Sharron
Angle (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [115] February 14–15, 20161,366± 3%46%33%21%
Gravis Marketing [121] December 23–27, 2015909± 3%45%32%22%
Gravis Marketing [120] March 27, 2015850± 3%53%30%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)
Adam
Laxalt (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [120] March 27, 2015850± 3%44%39%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)
Michael
Roberson (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [120] March 27, 2015850± 3%47%35%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)
Brian
Sandoval (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [120] March 27, 2015850± 3%37%53%10%

Results

Cortez Masto won her bid to succeed Harry Reid 47% to 45%, or by 2.43%, running 0.01% better than Hillary Clinton. [122]

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2016 [123]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Catherine Cortez Masto 521,994 47.10% −3.19%
Republican Joe Heck 495,07944.67%+0.12%
None of These Candidates 42,2573.81%+1.56%
Independent American Tom Jones17,1281.55%+1.11%
Independent Thomas Sawyer14,2081.28%N/A
Independent Tony Gumina10,7400.97%N/A
Independent Jarrod Williams6,8880.62%N/A
Total votes1,108,294 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

County [123] Catherine Cortez Masto

Democratic

Joe Heck

Republican

None of these CandidatesTom Jones

Independent American

Thomas Sawyer

Independent

Tony Gumina

Independent

Jarrod Williams

Independent

MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Carson City 9,74139.24%13,02752.47%8953.61%4481.80%3581.44%2010.81%1560.63%-3,286-13.23%24,826
Churchill 2,24020.56%7,71170.78%3523.23%2462.26%1921.76%950.87%580.53%-5,471-50.22%10,894
Clark 386,17951.27%303,73440.32%29,8493.96%11,3071.50%9,3591.24%7,9851.06%4,8300.64%82,44510.95%753,243
Douglas 8,41030.42%17,58763.6%7672.77%3501.27%2821.02%1530.55%1010.37%-9,177-33.19%27,650
Elko 3,19917.42%13,46273.29%7233.94%3943.1%3601.96%1350.74%940.51%-10,263-55.88%18,367
Esmeralda 6615.71%31274.29%133.1%225.24%30.71%40.95%00.00%-246-58.57%420
Eureka 8810.36%69281.51%293.42%161.88%161.88%50.59%30.35%-604-71.14%849
Humboldt 1,40620.57%4,39764.34%2353.44%1271.86%1261.84%620.91%310.45%-2,991-43.77%6,834
Lander 41718.29%1,70474.74%1134.96%542.37%492.15%231.01%331.45%-1,287-56.45%2,280
Lincoln 31514.85%1,60975.86%914.29%512.40%271.27%200.94%80.38%-1,294-61.01%2,121
Lyon 6,32326.82%15,23164.60%7803.31%5342.26%3751.59%2160.92%1190.50%-8,908-37.78%23,578
Mineral 62731.54%1,14157.39%894.48%472.36%452.26%201.01%190.96%-514-25.85%1,988
Nye 5,25327.13%11,61159.97%9294.80%7473.86%3902.01%2481.28%1820.94%-6,358-32.84%19,360
Pershing 46623.63%1,28665.21%773.90%673.40%452.28%190.96%120.61%-800-41.58%1,972
Storey 79131.10%1,55160.99%833.26%582.28%341.34%190.75%70.28%-760-29.89%2,543
Washoe 95,75046.04%97,43346.85%7,0643.40%2,5531.23%2,4531.18%1,5060.72%1,1980.58%-1,683-0.81%207,957
White Pine 72319.29%2,59169.11%1684.48%1072.85%942.51%370.99%290.77%-1,868-49.82%3,749
Totals521,99447.10%495,07944.67%42,2573.81%17,1281.55%14,2081.28%10,7400.97%6,8880.62%26,9152.43%1,108,294
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Cortez Masto won 2 of 4 congressional districts, with the remaining 2 going to Heck, including one that elected a Democrat. [124]

DistrictCortez MastoHeckRepresentative
1st 60%30% Dina Titus
2nd 40%53% Mark Amodei
3rd 45%47% Joe Heck
Jacky Rosen
4th 49%42% Cresent Hardy
Ruben Kihuen

See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 3%
  3. "Neither" with 3%
  4. "Neither" with 4%
  5. "Someone else" with 3%
  6. "Some other candidate" with 7%
  7. Jones (IA) with 4%
  8. "Neither" with 2%
  9. "Neither" with 4%
  10. "Someone else" with 4%
  11. Jones (IA) with 3%; Gumina (I) with 2%; Sawyer (I) with 1%; Williams (I) with <1%
  12. "Refused" with 2%
  13. "Other/None" with 8%
  14. "Refused" with 2%; Gumina (I) with 1%; Jones (IA) with 1%; Sawyer (I) with 1%; Williams (I) with <1%
  15. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  16. "Some other candidate" with 4%
  17. Jones (IA) with 4%
  18. "Refused" with 3%; Gumina (I) with 1%; Jones (IA) with 1%; Sawyer (I) with 1%
  19. "Someone else" with 4%
  20. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  21. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  22. Jones (IA) with 5%; "Other" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll conducted for 8 News NOW.
  2. Poll conducted for Breitbart News Network, a far-right news outlet.
  3. 1 2 Poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Poll conducted for KTNV-TV.
  5. Poll conducted for the Senate Leadership Fund, a Super PAC dedicated to electing a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate.
  6. 1 2 Poll conducted for End Citizens United.
  7. Poll conducted for Cortez Masto's campaign.
  8. Poll conducted for Democracy Corps, a non-profit organization associated with the Democratic Party.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Nevada gubernatorial election</span>

The 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Sisolak lost re-election to a second term, being defeated by Republican nominee, Clark County Sheriff, Joe Lombardo.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States Senate election in Nevada</span>

The 2024 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Sam Brown. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Nevada on the same ballot. Primary elections took place on June 11, 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Nevada</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto won re-election to a second term, narrowly defeating Republican challenger Adam Laxalt. Nevada's election results were slowed due to state law that allowed voters to submit mail-in ballots until November 12, and allowed voters to fix clerical problems in their mail-in ballots until November 14, 2022. No Republican has won this specific U.S. Senate seat since Adam Laxalt's grandfather Paul Laxalt won a second full term in 1980.

References

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  111. Rasmussen Reports (R)
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Official campaign websites (archived)