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Scott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Minter: 40-50% 50-60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Vermont |
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The 2016 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, and elected the governor of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic governor Peter Shumlin was eligible to run for re-election to a fourth term in office, but opted to retire instead. [1]
The primaries were held on August 9. [2] Former Vermont Agency of Transportation Secretary Sue Minter won the Democratic nomination, and Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott won the Republican primary, [3] with Scott defeating Minter in the general election. This was the first gubernatorial election in Vermont in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president since 1992.
Two-term Democratic governor Peter Shumlin ran for re-election in 2014 and was widely expected to win easily. However, he only took a plurality of the vote, 46.36%, to Republican Scott Milne's 45.1%, and thus the result was decided by the Vermont General Assembly. The Assembly picked Shumlin by 110 votes to 69. Shumlin announced in June 2015 that he would not run for a fourth term. [4]
Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years.
In August, Vermont House Speaker Shap Smith announced that he would be a candidate, [5] but ended his candidacy in November 2015, after his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer. [6] In September, Matt Dunne announced that he would also be a candidate. [7] Also in September, former state legislator Sue Minter, then serving as Vermont's Secretary of Transportation, announced that she would resign her position in order to join the Democratic race. [8] Former ambassador Peter Galbraith announced his candidacy in March 2016. [9]
In July, H. Brook Paige was excluded from official Democratic Party events after making derogatory comments on social media. [10]
Minter won the nomination decisively, and was endorsed by Dunne but not Galbraith. [11]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Matt Dunne | Sue Minter | Peter Galbraith | Other/Undecided |
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Energy Independent Vermont [37] | June 26–29, 2016 | 217 | ± 6.7% | 31% | 36% | 8% | 25% |
Castleton Polling Institute [38] | February 3–17, 2016 | 895 | ± 3.27% | 19% | 11% | – | 69% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic | Sue Minter | 35,979 | 51.20% | |
Democratic | Matt Dunne | 26,699 | 38.00% | |
Democratic | Peter Galbraith | 6,616 | 9.40% | |
Democratic | Cris Ericson | 538 | 0.80% | |
Democratic | H. Brooke Paige | 387 | 0.60% | |
Democratic | Write-ins | 579 | 1.84% | |
Total votes | 70,798 | 100.00% |
In September 2015, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott entered the race, [40] and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne, who had been considering running, endorsed Scott. [41] In October 2015, retired Wall Street executive Bruce Lisman officially announced his "outsider" candidacy. [42]
Scott was endorsed by most active Vermont Republican politicians, and held a strong lead in a February poll. [43] [44] Lisman's campaign criticized Scott for being too closely connected to outgoing Democratic governor Peter Shumlin and for "plagiarizing" Lisman's ideas, and linked Scott to the "failures" of the Vermont Health Connect insurance platform and the school redistricting Act 46; [45] [46] [47] the candidates' campaigns disagreed over whether this constituted "negative campaigning," and Scott's campaign said the attacks were "patently false". [45]
Scott won the nomination by a large margin. [48]
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On May 6, 2016, Scott received the endorsements of all Vermont Republican legislators (listed above) except state representatives Donald Turner, Doug Gage, Mary Morrissey, Job Tate, and Paul Dame. [69] Among those five legislators who did not endorse Scott, four said they always remain neutral in a party primary election, and one was waiting until after the filing deadline to make an endorsement. [70]
This article's use of external links may not follow Wikipedia's policies or guidelines.(August 2016) |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Phil Scott | Bruce Lisman | Other/Undecided |
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Energy Independent Vermont [37] | June 26–29, 2016 | 171 | ± 7.5% | 68% | 23% | 9% |
Castleton Polling Institute [38] | February 3–17, 2016 | 895 | ± 3.27% | 42% | 4% | 53% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Phil Scott | 27,669 | 60.50% | |
Republican | Bruce Lisman | 18,055 | 39.50% | |
Republican | Write-ins | 48 | 0.22% | |
Total votes | 45,772 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Liberty Union | Bill "Spaceman" Lee | 6 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 6 | 100% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [72] | Tossup | August 12, 2016 |
Daily Kos [73] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
Rothenberg Political Report [74] | Tilt R (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [75] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics [76] | Tossup | November 1, 2016 |
Governing [77] | Tossup | October 27, 2016 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Sue Minter (D) | Phil Scott (R) | Bill Lee (LU) | Undecided |
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SurveyMonkey [78] | November 1–7, 2016 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 51% | 47% | — | 2% |
SurveyMonkey [79] | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 447 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 48% | — | 2% |
SurveyMonkey [80] | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 449 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 51% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey [81] | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 424 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 53% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey [82] | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 428 | ± 4.6% | 43% | 54% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey [83] | October 25–31, 2016 | 436 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 52% | — | 3% |
RRH Elections [84] | October 24–26, 2016 | 1,052 | ± 3.0% | 38% | 45% | 4% | 13% |
Braun Research/WCAX [85] | October 19–22, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 47% | 6% | 9% |
Castleton University - Vermont Public Radio [86] | September 29–October 14, 2016 | 579 | ± 3.9% | 38% | 39% | 7% | 14% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Phil Scott | 166,817 | 52.90% | +7.80% | |
Democratic | Sue Minter | 139,253 | 44.17% | −2.19% | |
Liberty Union | Bill Lee | 8,912 | 2.83% | +1.96% | |
Write-in | 313 | 0.10% | -0.27% | ||
Total votes | 315,295 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
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