2016 United States Senate election in Florida

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2016 United States Senate election in Florida
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  Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Patrick Murphy crop.jpg
Nominee Marco Rubio Patrick Murphy
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote4,835,1914,122,088
Percentage51.98%44.31%
2016 United States Senate election in Florida results map by county.svg
2016 US Senate in Florida by district.svg
FL Senate 2016.svg
Rubio:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Murphy:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio ran for another term but faced well-funded Republican primary opposition after initially announcing he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat. He had openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for president in 2016. [2] [3] [4] He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from simultaneously appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office. [5]

However, in April 2015, Rubio announced that he was running for President and would not seek re-election. [6] [7] [8] [9] Rubio had initially said he would not run for re-election to the Senate even if he dropped out of the GOP presidential primary before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline was June 24, 2016. [10] [11]

On June 13, 2016, despite his previous statements that he would not run for re-election to his Senate seat, Rubio "seemed to open the door to running for re-election," citing the previous day's mass shooting in Orlando and how "it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country." [12] On June 22, 2016, Rubio announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate, reversing his pledge not to run. [13]

On August 30, the Republican Party nominated Marco Rubio, and the Democratic Party nominated Representative Patrick Murphy. Rubio won with the largest raw vote total in Florida history (until Donald Trump broke the record in 2020), taking a greater percentage of the popular vote than Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who won the state in the election. He is the first Republican Senator from Florida since 1994, and only the second with Connie Mack, to be reelected to a second term. Also, with Mel Martinez's victory in 2004, this marks the first time that Republicans have won one of Florida's Senate seats three times in a row (Mack succeeded Lawton Chiles, a Democrat, and was succeeded by another Democrat, Bill Nelson).

Marco Rubio won 48% of the Hispanic vote and 17% of the African American vote during this election, an exceptional number for a Republican during a presidential year. [14] Additionally, Rubio's raw vote total was the highest vote total for any Republican Senate candidate up until Texas Senator John Cornyn broke it in 2020.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Ron DeSantis (withdrew)
Individuals
Organizations
David Jolly (withdrew)
Individuals
Carlos López-Cantera (withdrew)
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Marco Rubio
Presidents of the United States
Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Statewide officials
Newspaper Editorial Boards
Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Carlos
Beruff		Ron
DeSantis		David
Jolly		Ilya
Katz		Carlos
López-Cantera		Marco
Rubio		Todd
Wilcox		Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Archived September 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 22–24, 2016400± 5%22%————61%—15%
Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 2016327± 5.4%8%————69%5%15%
Florida Chamber of Commerce August 17–22, 2016249± 4.0%19%————68%—10%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016479± 4.5%14%————68%—18%
Suffolk University Archived August 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 1–3, 2016183± 4.4%12%––––62%–26%
St. Pete Polls August 2, 20161,835± 2.3%22%––––55%–23%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2016555± 4.1%11%––––63%–13%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 19–20, 2016487± 4.4%5%––––57%4%34%
St. Leo University June 10–16, 2016500± 7%4%5%4%1%3%52%2%27%
8%8%8%2%9%–5%57%
Mason-Dixon Archived August 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 31–June 2, 2016400± 5%17%10%13%–9%–2%49%
News 13/Bay News 9 March 4–6, 2016724± 3.7%1%11%18%4%9%–7%50%
Washington Post/Univision March 2–5, 2016450± 5.5%0%6%5%–6%–2%81%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016464± 4.6%–14%26%–11%–2%47%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business January 15–18, 2016345± 5.2%–8%28%–8%––57%
St. Pete Polls/Saint Petersblog December 14–15, 20152,694± 1.9%–18%21%–10%–8%44%
St. Leo University November 29 – December 3, 2015147± 8%–6%12%4%8%–7%63%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015377± 5.1%–15%18%–14%––52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Vern
Buchanan		Ben
Carson		Ron
DeSantis		Don
Gaetz		David
Jolly		George
LeMieux		Carlos
López-Cantera		Bill
McCollum		Jeff
Miller		Tom
Rooney		Todd
Wilcox		Other/
Undecided
News 13/Bay News 9 March 4–6, 2016724± 3.7%–56%–––––––––44%
Mason-Dixon July 20–24, 2015500± 4.5%––8%–11%–7%22%6%–1%45%
––9%–16%–10%–8%–2%55%
St. Pete Polls July 15, 20151,074± 3.0%–—9%—22%—11%—12%—–46%
Gravis Marketing June 16—20, 2015729± 3.6%–—16%———7%25%6%—–46%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015425± 4.5%–—6%4%6%3%7%16%8%—–43%
Mason-Dixon Archived May 20, 2015, at the Wayback Machine Apr. 14–16, 2015425± 4.8%7%–4%1%8%3%4%20%—5%–48%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Atwater		Pam
Bondi		Carlos
López-Cantera		Adam
Putnam		Allen
West		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015425± 4.8%12%25%8%—38%18%
41%—15%——43%
Gravis Marketing February 24–25, 2015513± 4%9%36%—12%—43%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%17%38%—16%—29%

Results

Republican primary results [123]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 1,029,830 71.99%
Republican Carlos Beruff 264,42718.49%
Republican Dwight Young91,0826.37%
Republican Ernie Rivera45,1533.16%
Total votes1,430,492 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and independent candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 (running as an Independent) [130] [131]

Declined

Endorsements

Alan Grayson
Politicians
Activists
Labor unions
Organizations
Pam Keith
Newspaper Editorial Boards
Patrick Murphy
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspaper Editorial Boards

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Alan
Grayson		Pam
Keith		Lateresa
Jones		Patrick
Murphy		Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Archived September 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 22–24, 2016400± 5%22%4%—55%19%
Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 20163648%7%—54%22%
Florida Chamber of Commerce August 17–22, 2016258± 4.0%11%——40%38%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016532± 4.5%17%8%—48%27%
Suffolk University Archived August 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 1–3, 2016194± 4.4%17%2%–36%45%
St. Pete Polls August 2, 20161,807± 2.3%20%7%–45%28%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2016618± 4.0%21%10%–30%35%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 19–20, 2016530± 4.3%15%5%–19%62%
Targeted Persuasion June 14–16, 2016862± 3.34%30%5%–27%38%
St. Leo University June 10–16, 2016500± 7%14%3%4%16%61%
Mason-Dixon Archived August 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 31–June 2, 2016400± 5%23%3%–31%43%
Public Policy Polling Archived April 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine March 22–23, 2016829 ?33%––32%35%
St. Leo University March 13–17, 2016540± 5%17%––20%63%
Mason-Dixon [ permanent dead link ]March 7–9, 2016500± 4.5%19%––33%48%
SurveyUSA March 4–6, 2016592± 4.1%16%11%–27%46%
Bendixon & Amandi/The Tarrance Group March 2–5, 2016449± 6%19%––27%54%
Univision March 2–5, 2016449± 6%29%––36%35%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016388± 5%33%––22%45%
20/20 Insight LLC* Archived February 28, 2016, at the Wayback Machine ~February 16–18, 2016646± 3.9%41%––32%27%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business January 15–18, 2016371± 5%27%––20%53%
St. Leo University November 29–December 3, 2015160± 7.5%7%4%6%17%55%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015368± 5.1%33%––27%39%
Mason-Dixon July 20–24, 2015500± 4.5%24%––26%50%
33%––32%35%
St. Pete Polls July 15, 20151,018± 3.1%30%8%–23%39%
Gravis Marketing June 16–20, 2015881± 3.3%63%––19%18%
Vox Populi Polling (R) [ permanent dead link ]June 15–17, 2015717± 3.7%24%––34%42%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%24%—–27%49%
Mason-Dixon April 14–16, 2015400± 5%14%––23%63%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015371± 5.1%22%––21%56%

    Results

    County results Florida Senate D Primary 2016.svg
    County results
    Democratic primary results [123]
    PartyCandidateVotes%
    Democratic Patrick Murphy 665,985 58.92%
    Democratic Alan Grayson 199,92917.72%
    Democratic Pam Keith173,91915.40%
    Democratic Rocky De La Fuente 60,8105.38%
    Democratic Reginald Luster29,1382.58%
    Total votes1,129,781 100.00%

    Libertarian primary

    On October 1, 2015, Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Libertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defended eugenics, called for a new Civil War, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations, "deliberate misrepresentation[s]." [191]

    Candidates

    Declared

    Declined

    Endorsements

    Paul Stanton
    Individuals
    Libertarian Party of Florida Affiliates
    • Libertarian Party of Broward County [195] [202]
    • Libertarian Party of Collier County [195] [200]
    • Libertarian Party of Pinellas County [195] [200]
    • Libertarian Party of Santa Rosa County [203]
    • Libertarian Party of Volusia County [195] [200]
    • Northwest Florida Libertarian Party [195] [202] [204]
    • Libertarian Party of Palm Beach County [205]
    Organizations
    • Eastern Liberty Alliance PAC [195]
    • Ninjas for Liberty PAC [195]
    Augustus Sol Invictus
    Individuals
    • Keon A. Grayson, North Central, Miami-Dade County Community Councilman [206]
    • Steve Scheetz, former Chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party [207]
    • Bill Wohlsifer, former candidate for Florida Attorney General [208]

    Results

    2016 United States Senate Libertarian primary in Florida by county Map legend .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Stanton--50-60% Stanton--60-70% Stanton--70-80% Stanton--80-90% Stanton-->90% Invictus--50-60% Tie--50% No votes 2016 US Senate Libertarian Primary in Florida by county.svg
    2016 United States Senate Libertarian primary in Florida by county
    Map legend
    •   Stanton—50-60%
    •   Stanton—60-70%
    •   Stanton—70-80%
    •   Stanton—80-90%
    •   Stanton—>90%
    •   Invictus—50-60%
    •   Tie—50%
    •   No votes
    Libertarian primary results [123]
    PartyCandidateVotes%
    Libertarian Paul Stanton 2,946 73.48%
    Libertarian Augustus Sol Invictus 1,06326.52%
    Total votes4,009 100.00%

    Independent

    Candidates

    Declared

    No party affiliation

    Candidates

    Declared

    General election

    Debates

    DatesLocationRubioMurphyStantonLink
    October 17, 2016 Orlando, Florida ParticipantParticipantNot Invited Full debate - C-SPAN
    October 26, 2016 Davie, Florida ParticipantParticipantNot Invited Full debate - C-SPAN

    Predictions

    SourceRankingAs of
    The Cook Political Report [216] Lean RNovember 2, 2016
    Sabato's Crystal Ball [217] Lean RNovember 7, 2016
    Rothenberg Political Report [218] Lean RNovember 3, 2016
    Daily Kos [219] Lean RNovember 8, 2016
    Real Clear Politics [220] TossupNovember 7, 2016

    Polling

    Graphical summary
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Marco
    Rubio (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		Paul
    Stanton (L)    		OtherUndecided
    SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 20164,092± 4.6%48%49%——3%
    Quinnipiac University Archived November 7, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 3–6, 2016884± 3.3%50%43%—2%5%
    Alliance/ESA Poll Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback Machine November 2–6, 2016875± 4.2%51%40%——9%
    SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 20163,574± 4.6%48%49%——3%
    CBS News/YouGov November 2–4, 20161,188± 3.6%47%44%—3%6%
    SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 20163,356± 4.6%49%49%——2%
    Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–2, 20161,220± 2.8%47%46%——7%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy November 1–2, 2016603± 4.0%50%46%——4%
    SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 20162,901± 4.6%49%48%——3%
    CNN/ORC October 27–November 1, 2016773 LV± 3.5%49%48%——2%
    884 RV50%47%——3%
    Quinnipiac University Archived November 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 27–November 1, 2016626± 3.9%50%44%—1%4%
    SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 20162,715± 4.6%49%47%——4%
    SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 20162,809± 4.6%49%47%——4%
    TargetSmart/William & Mary October 25–28, 2016718± 3.4%49%43%—7%1%
    Emerson College October 26–27, 2016500± 4.3%49%47%—3%1%
    New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 25–27, 2016814± 3.4%51%42%——5%
    Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 25–26, 20161,301± 2.7%46%46%——8%
    Public Policy Polling October 25–26, 2016742± 3.6%46%46%——8%
    NBC/WSJ/Marist October 25–26, 2016779 LV± 3.5%51%43%—4%2%
    990 RV± 3.1%50%42%—4%3%
    St. Leo University October 22–26, 20161,028± 3.0%44%39%——17%
    University of North Florida October 20–25, 2016836± 3.6%49%43%——8%
    Bloomberg/Selzer October 21–24, 2016953± 3.2%51%41%——8%
    Florida Atlantic University October 21–23, 2016500± 4.3%46%42%——12%
    Bay News 9/SurveyUSA October 20–24, 20161,251± 2.8%45%41%—6%8%
    CBS News/YouGov October 20–21, 20161,042± 3.6%44%42%—6%8%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy October 20, 2016538± 4.2%46%46%——8%
    Google Consumer Surveys October 18–20, 2016500± 4.2%57%38%——5%
    Associated Industries of Florida October 19, 20161,000± 3.1%43%38%—8%11%
    Florida Chamber of Commerce October 16–19, 2016507± 4.4%51%37%—1%11%
    The Times-Picayune/Lucid Archived October 22, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 17–18, 2016892± 3.0%45%44%——11%
    Quinnipiac University Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 10–16, 2016660± 3.8%49%47%——4%
    Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 8–16, 20161,702± 0.5%51%45%——4%

    Public Policy Polling

    		October 12–13, 2016985± 3.1%44%38%6%—12%
    48%43%——9%
    Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 11–13, 20161,799± 2.3%44%36%——20%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy October 10–11, 2016533± 4.2%48%44%——8%
    NBC/WSJ/Marist October 3–5, 2016700± 3.7%48%46%—2%4%
    Associated Industries of Florida October 2–5, 2016600± 4.0%49%41%—1%9%
    Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 4, 2016821± 3.4%44%40%——16%
    Emerson College October 2–4, 2016600± 3.6%47%39%—6%8%
    University of North Florida Archived October 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 27–October 4, 2016667± 3.8%48%41%—1%10%
    Quinnipiac University Archived October 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 27–October 2, 2016545± 4.2%48%44%——8%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy September 28–29, 2016619± 4.0%47%43%——10%
    Mason-Dixon Archived October 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 27–29, 2016820± 3.5%47%40%5%2%6%
    Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016826± 3.4%42%35%9%—15%
    47%44%——9%
    Suffolk University Archived September 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 19–21, 2016500± 4.4%43%34%2%4%17%
    Florida Chamber of Commerce September 15–20, 2016617± 4.0%46%42%——11%
    Monmouth University September 16–19, 2016400± 4.9%47%45%—3%5%
    Saint Leo University September 10–16, 2016502± 4.5%44%35%——21%
    New York Times Upshot/Siena College September 10–14, 2016867± 3.3%48%42%——8%
    CNN/ORC September 7–12, 2016788 LV± 3.0%54%43%—1%2%
    886 RV51%45%—1%4%
    Global Strategy Group September 6–11, 2016800± 3.5%47%45%——8%
    JMC Analytics (R) September 7–8, 2016781± 3.5%43%38%—4%15%
    Quinnipiac University Archived September 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 31–September 7, 2016601± 4.0%50%43%—1%6%
    Public Policy Polling September 4–6, 2016744± 3.6%40%37%10%—13%
    Mason-Dixon Archived September 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 22–24, 2016625± 4.0%46%43%——11%
    iCitizen August 18–24, 2016600± 4.0%43%42%——16%
    Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 20161,200± 2.7%44%39%——17%
    St. Leo University August 14–18, 20161,380± 3.0%46%38%——16%
    Monmouth University August 12–15, 2016402± 4.9%48%43%—3%5%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy August 10, 2016622± 4.0%45%43%——12%
    Civis Analytics August 9–15, 20161,436± 2.8%44%45%——9%
    NBC/WSJ/Marist August 4–10, 2016862± 3.3%49%43%—3%5%
    Public Policy Polling Archived August 11, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 5–7, 2016938± 3.2%42%40%——18%
    Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%48%45%——7%
    Suffolk University Archived August 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 1–3, 2016500± 4.4%46%33%——21%
    JMC Analytics (R) July 9–10, 2016700± 3.7%40%33%—5%21%
    NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–11, 2016871± 3.3%47%44%—2%7%
    Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%50%37%—1%8%
    Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 20161,678± 2.4%43%43%—7%8%
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%47%40%——13%
    Public Policy Polling June 15–16, 2016508± 4.4%41%42%——17%
    Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%43%44%——13%
    Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016604± 5.0%49%41%——10%
    Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%46%40%——14%
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%48%41%——11%
    Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%50%38%——12%
    Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%46%41%——12%
    Hypothetical polling
    with Ron DeSantis
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Ron
    DeSantis (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%33%41%1%24%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%38%36%—26%
    Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%34%40%—26%
    Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%31%37%1%26%
    Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%37%36%—28%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%32%38%1%29%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Ron
    DeSantis (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%32%42%1%25%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%35%36%—29%
    Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016604± 5%28%40%—32%
    Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%31%43%—26%
    Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%30%37%1%29%
    Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%40%—25%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%31%39%1%29%
    St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%14%33%—53%
    with David Jolly
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		David
    Jolly (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%41%1%24%
    Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%33%40%—27%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%35%—28%
    Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%38%35%—26%
    Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%39%36%—26%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		David
    Jolly (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%41%1%25%
    Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%29%44%—27%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%34%37%—29%
    Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016604± 5%33%40%—27%
    Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%34%38%—27%
    Democracy Corps October 24–28, 2015400± 4.9%44%43%—13%
    Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%40%—25%
    St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%14%35%—52%
    with Carlos Lopez-Cantera
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Carlos
    López-Cantera (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%35%40%1%24%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%37%—26%
    Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%35%38%—26%
    Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%32%35%1%27%
    Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%34%41%—24%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%31%37%1%31%
    Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%33%32%1%34%
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%36%40%—24%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Carlos
    López-Cantera (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%32%41%1%26%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%34%38%—28%
    Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016604± 5%31%42%—27%
    Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%31%40%—29%
    Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%29%37%1%30%
    Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%41%—24%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%28%40%1%32%
    St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%15%30%—56%
    Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%31%35%1%33%
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%34%41%—25%
    with Jeff Atwater
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jeff
    Atwater (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%42%32%1%25%
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%41%40%—19%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jeff
    Atwater (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%38%34%1%27%
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%41%39%—20%
    Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%46%32%—22%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jeff
    Atwater (R)    		Debbie
    Wasserman
    Schultz (D)    		Undecided
    Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%45%35%20%
    with Pam Bondi
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Pam
    Bondi (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%45%42%13%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Pam
    Bondi (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%45%41%14%
    with Don Gaetz
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Don
    Gaetz (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		Undecided
    St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%9%36%55%
    with Jeff Miller
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Jeff
    Miller (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		Undecided
    St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%15%34%52%
    with Marco Rubio
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Marco
    Rubio (R)    		Alex
    Sink (D)    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%45%42%13%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Marco
    Rubio (R)    		Debbie
    Wasserman
    Schultz (D)    		Undecided
    Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%53%36%11%
    Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%47%43%9%
    Public Policy Polling June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%48%40%12%
    Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%46%43%11%
    with Allen West
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Allen
    West (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%39%42%19%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Allen
    West (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%39%41%20%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Allen
    West (R)    		Alex
    Sink (D)    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%38%44%18%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Allen
    West (R)    		Debbie
    Wasserman
    Schultz (D)    		Undecided
    Public Policy Polling June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%41%40%19%
    Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%40%44%16%
    with Todd Wilcox
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Todd
    Wilcox (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%39%2%24%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%35%—28%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Todd
    Wilcox (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%31%41%1%26%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%33%38%—27%
    with Carlos Beruff
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Carlos
    Beruff (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%39%43%1%17%
    Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%38%38%1%19%
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%33%40%1%25%
    Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%32%41%—28%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%35%36%—29%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Carlos
    Beruff (R)    		Patrick
    Murphy (D)    		OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%34%48%1%17%
    Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%34%40%1%19%
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%31%43%1%26%
    Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%31%43%—27%
    Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%32%38%—29%
    Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016604± 5.0%31%39%—30%
    with Alan Grayson
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered    		Sample
    size    		Margin of
    error    		Marco
    Rubio (R)    		Alan
    Grayson (D)    		OtherUndecided
    iCitizen August 18–24, 2016600± 4.0%44%39%—16%
    St. Leo University August 14–18, 20161,380± 3.0%47%34%—19%
    Monmouth University August 12–15, 2016402± 4.9%50%39%5%6%
    Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%49%43%1%8%
    Suffolk University Archived August 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 1–3, 2016500± 4.4%45%31%—24%
    JMC Analytics (R) July 9–10, 2016700± 3.7%41%33%4%22%
    Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%50%38%1%8%
    Quinnipiac University [ permanent dead link ]June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%50%38%1%11%
    Public Policy Polling June 15–16, 2016508± 4.4%42%40%—17%
    Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%43%38%—19%
    Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%48%38%—14%
    Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%49%40%—11%

    Results

    United States Senate election in Florida, 2016 [221]
    PartyCandidateVotes%±%
    Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 4,835,191 51.98% +3.09%
    Democratic Patrick Murphy 4,122,08844.31%+24.11%
    Libertarian Paul Stanton 196,9562.12%+1.66%
    Independent Bruce Nathan52,4510.56%N/A
    Independent Tony Khoury45,8200.49%N/A
    Independent Steven Machat 26,9180.29%N/A
    Independent Basil E. Dalack22,2360.24%N/A
    Write-in 1600.00%0.00%
    Total votes9,301,820 100.00% N/A
    Republican hold

    Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

    Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

    Counties that from Independent to Republican

    See also

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    References

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    2. ↑ Rubin, Jennifer (August 5, 2013). "Prepping for 2016: Marco Rubio". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 5, 2013.
    3. ↑ Feldmann, Linda (September 4, 2013). "2016 contenders: Why Syria is tough for GOP's Marco Rubio". The Christian Science Monitor . Washington. Retrieved September 7, 2013.
    4. ↑ Sink, Justin (September 6, 2013). "Rubio to tackle future of US, GOP". The Hill . Retrieved September 7, 2013.
    5. ↑ Berman, Matt (April 2, 2014). "Marco Rubio Won't Run for Senate in 2016 if He Runs for President". National Journal. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
    6. ↑ Parker, Ashley (April 13, 2015). "Marco Rubio Announces 2016 Presidential Bid". The New York Times.
    7. 1 2 "Marco Rubio tells donors he's running for president in 2016". CBS News. April 13, 2015. Retrieved April 13, 2015.
    8. 1 2 Steve Benen (April 13, 2015). "Marco Rubio rolls the dice". MSNBC. Retrieved April 13, 2015.
    9. 1 2 David M. Drucker (April 13, 2015). "Marco Rubio jumps in, will leave Senate". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved April 13, 2015.
    10. ↑ "United States Senate election in Florida, 2016". Ballotpedia . Retrieved November 26, 2015.
    11. ↑ Marco Rubio [@marcorubio] (May 17, 2016). "I have only said like 10000 times I will be a private citizen in January" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
    12. 1 2 LoBianco, Tom (June 13, 2016). "Citing Orlando shootings, Rubio opens door to Senate run". CNN . Retrieved June 13, 2016.
    13. 1 2 3 4 DeBonis, Mike; O'Keefe, Ed; Sullivan, Sean (June 22, 2016). "Marco Rubio will seek Senate reelection, reversing pledge not to run". The Washington Post . Retrieved June 22, 2016.
    14. ↑ "How Rubio outdid Trump in Florida and revived his career". Politico PRO. Retrieved August 26, 2017.
    15. ↑ Anderson, Zac (January 20, 2016). "Beruff considering U.S. Senate run". Sarasota Herald-Tribune . Retrieved January 25, 2016.
    16. ↑ Anderson, Zac (January 24, 2016). "Team in place if Beruff runs". Sarasota Herald-Tribune . Retrieved January 25, 2016.
    17. ↑ Wallace, Jeremy (February 24, 2016). "Cuban-American developer Carlos Beruff launching campaign for U.S. Senate in Miami". Miami Herald. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
    18. ↑ Varone, Ciara (April 19, 2016). "Republican Senate candidates talk tuition, Trump and bear hunts at UCF debate". Nicholson Student Media. Retrieved May 16, 2016.
    19. 1 2 Kamisar, Ben (March 9, 2015). "DeSantis opens door to Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved March 9, 2015.
    20. 1 2 Alex Leary (March 19, 2015). "Vern Buchanan and Will Weatherford in no rush to decide on U.S. Senate". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on March 22, 2015. Retrieved March 19, 2015.
    21. ↑ Farrington, Brendan (May 5, 2015). "Republican Congressman DeSantis to run for Rubio Senate seat". Sun-Sentinel . Retrieved May 5, 2015.
    22. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (June 22, 2016). "Reports: Ron DeSantis to run for re-election in CD 6". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 22, 2016.
    23. ↑ Godwin, Elisabeth (February 10, 2016). "Most of you know I am running a campaign for US Senate in Florida". Facebook. Archived from the original on April 5, 2016. Retrieved April 5, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
    24. ↑ "Candidate Tracking System – Mary Elisabeth Godwin". Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved April 5, 2016.
    25. ↑ Smith, Adam C. (July 20, 2015). "U.S. Rep. David Jolly enters race for U.S. Senate". Tampa Bay Times . Retrieved July 20, 2015.
    26. ↑ Kopan, Tal (June 17, 2016). "David Jolly drops out of Florida Senate race, possibly clearing way for Marco Rubio". CNN .
    27. ↑ "Carlos Lopez-Cantera says he's running for Marco Rubio's U.S. Senate seat in Florida". The Miami Herald. July 15, 2015. Retrieved July 15, 2015.
    28. 1 2 "Lopez-Cantera Ends Senate Bid, Endorses Rubio". Sunshine State News. June 22, 2016. Retrieved June 22, 2016.
    29. ↑ Perry, Mitch (June 22, 2016). "Carlos Lopez-Cantera officially drops out of Florida's U.S. Senate race". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 22, 2016.
    30. ↑ Smith, Adam C. (July 8, 2015). "A wildcard GOP candidate enters Fla's U.S. Sen race". Tampa Bay Times . Archived from the original on July 9, 2015. Retrieved July 8, 2015.
    31. ↑ Smith, Adam C. (April 22, 2016). "Meet sniper, CIA officer, Green Beret millionaire Todd Wilcox, a candidate for Florida's open Senate seat". Tampa Bay Times . Retrieved June 22, 2016.
    32. ↑ Auslen, Michael (June 24, 2016). "Todd Wilcox to drop from Senate race". Tampa Bay Times . Archived from the original on June 25, 2016. Retrieved June 22, 2016.
    33. ↑ Bennett, George (November 5, 2015). "CFO Jeff Atwater says no — again — to 2016 Senate bid". The Palm Beach Post. Archived from the original on November 7, 2015. Retrieved November 10, 2015.
    34. ↑ March, William (May 14, 2015). "Another name to put in the hat for U.S. Senate — Rick Baker?". Tampa Bay Times . Retrieved May 21, 2015.
    35. ↑ Smith, Adam C. (April 12, 2016). "Rick Baker won't run for Congress in Pinellas County". Tampa Bay Times . Retrieved April 13, 2016.
    36. ↑ Marc Caputo [@MarcACaputo] (April 7, 2015). "I've said a few times Pam Bondi is not likely to run for US Senate in 16. Now she confirms: "I am not running for the U.S. Senate seat..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
    37. ↑ Miner, Ryan (January 21, 2016). "Dan Bongino set to enter Florida U.S. Senate race in February". A Miner Detail. Archived from the original on January 24, 2016. Retrieved January 26, 2016.
    38. ↑ Derby, Kevin (November 6, 2015). "Conservative Dan Bongino Ponders Entering Senate Race". Sunshine State News. Retrieved November 10, 2014.
    39. 1 2 Derby, Kevin (February 26, 2016). "Dan Bongino Stays Out of Senate Race, Backs Ron DeSantis". Sunshine State News. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
    40. ↑ Jeremy Wallace (April 30, 2015). "Exclusive: Buchanan out of U.S. Senate race". Sarasota Herald-Tribune. Retrieved April 30, 2015.
    41. ↑ Bash, Dana (March 2, 2016). "GOP operatives to pitch Ben Carson on Florida Senate run". CNN. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
    42. 1 2 Bennett, George (April 14, 2016). "Ben Carson endorses Ron DeSantis for Senate". The Palm Beach Post . Archived from the original on April 14, 2016. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
    43. 1 2 3 Henderson, Jeff (February 26, 2015). "Florida Politicians on Standby Until Marco Rubio Makes Up his Mind for 2016". Sunshine State News. Archived from the original on February 27, 2015. Retrieved February 27, 2015.
    44. ↑ Gill, Kristine (December 4, 2015). "Senate hopeful says he'll work to address terrorism threat". Naples Daily News . Retrieved April 14, 2016.
    45. ↑ Dixon, Matt (July 1, 2015). "Republican Randy Fine not running for U.S. Senate". Politico . Retrieved July 1, 2015.
    46. 1 2 3 4 Alexis Levinson (December 22, 2014). "How Jeb Bush Affects the Florida Senate Race". Roll Call. Archived from the original on December 26, 2014. Retrieved December 26, 2014.
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