2016 United States Senate election in Florida

Last updated

2016 United States Senate election in Florida
Flag of Florida.svg
  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  
  Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Patrick Murphy crop.jpg
Nominee Marco Rubio Patrick Murphy
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote4,835,1914,122,088
Percentage51.98%44.31%

2016 United States Senate election in Florida results map by county.svg
2016 US Senate in Florida by district.svg
FL Senate 2016.svg
Rubio:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Murphy:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%
     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio ran for another term but faced well-funded Republican primary opposition after initially announcing he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat. He had openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for president in 2016. [2] [3] [4] He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from simultaneously appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office. [5]

However, in April 2015, Rubio announced that he was running for President and would not seek re-election. [6] [7] [8] [9] Rubio had initially said he would not run for re-election to the Senate even if he dropped out of the GOP presidential primary before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline was June 24, 2016. [10] [11]

On June 13, 2016, despite his previous statements that he would not run for re-election to his Senate seat, Rubio "seemed to open the door to running for re-election," citing the previous day's mass shooting in Orlando and how "it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country." [12] On June 22, 2016, Rubio announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate, reversing his pledge not to run. [13]

On August 30, the Republican Party nominated Marco Rubio, and the Democratic Party nominated Representative Patrick Murphy. Rubio won with the largest raw vote total in Florida history (until Donald Trump broke the record in 2020), taking a greater percentage of the popular vote than Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who won the state in the election. He is the first Republican Senator from Florida since 1994, and only the second with Connie Mack, to be reelected to a second term. Also, with Mel Martinez's victory in 2004, this marks the first time that Republicans have won one of Florida's Senate seats three times in a row (Mack succeeded Lawton Chiles, a Democrat, and was succeeded by another Democrat, Bill Nelson).

Marco Rubio won 48% of the Hispanic vote and 17% of the African American vote during this election, an exceptional number for a Republican during a presidential year. [14] Additionally, Rubio's raw vote total was the highest vote total for any Republican Senate candidate up until Texas Senator John Cornyn broke it in 2020.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Ron DeSantis (withdrew)

Individuals

Organizations

David Jolly (withdrew)

Individuals

Carlos López-Cantera (withdrew)

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors and other municipal leaders

Marco Rubio

Presidents of the United States

Governors

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Statewide officials

Newspaper Editorial Boards

Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
Beruff
Ron
DeSantis
David
Jolly
Ilya
Katz
Carlos
López-Cantera
Marco
Rubio
Todd
Wilcox
Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon [123] August 22–24, 2016400± 5%22%61%15%
Florida Atlantic University [124] August 19–22, 2016327± 5.4%8%69%5%15%
Florida Chamber of Commerce [125] August 17–22, 2016249± 4.0%19%68%10%
St. Leo University [126] August 14–18, 2016479± 4.5%14%68%18%
Suffolk University [127] August 1–3, 2016183± 4.4%12%62%26%
St. Pete Polls [128] August 2, 20161,835± 2.3%22%55%23%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA [129] June 25–27, 2016555± 4.1%11%63%13%
Vox Populi Polling (R) [130] June 19–20, 2016487± 4.4%5%57%4%34%
St. Leo University [131] June 10–16, 2016500± 7%4%5%4%1%3%52%2%27%
8%8%8%2%9%5%57%
Mason-Dixon [132] May 31–June 2, 2016400± 5%17%10%13%9%2%49%
News 13/Bay News 9 [133] March 4–6, 2016724± 3.7%1%11%18%4%9%7%50%
Washington Post/Univision [134] March 2–5, 2016450± 5.5%0%6%5%6%2%81%
Public Policy Polling [135] February 24–25, 2016464± 4.6%14%26%11%2%47%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business [136] January 15–18, 2016345± 5.2%8%28%8%57%
St. Pete Polls/Saint Petersblog [137] December 14–15, 20152,694± 1.9%18%21%10%8%44%
St. Leo University [138] November 29 – December 3, 2015147± 8%6%12%4%8%7%63%
Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015377± 5.1%15%18%14%52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Vern
Buchanan
Ben
Carson
Ron
DeSantis
Don
Gaetz
David
Jolly
George
LeMieux
Carlos
López-Cantera
Bill
McCollum
Jeff
Miller
Tom
Rooney
Todd
Wilcox
Other/
Undecided
News 13/Bay News 9 [133] March 4–6, 2016724± 3.7%56%44%
Mason-Dixon [140] July 20–24, 2015500± 4.5%8%11%7%22%6%1%45%
9%16%10%8%2%55%
St. Pete Polls [141] July 15, 20151,074± 3.0%9%22%11%12%46%
Gravis Marketing [142] June 16—20, 2015729± 3.6%16%7%25%6%46%
St. Leo University [143] May 25–31, 2015425± 4.5%6%4%6%3%7%16%8%43%
Mason-Dixon [144] Apr. 14–16, 2015425± 4.8%7%4%1%8%3%4%20%5%48%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeff
Atwater
Pam
Bondi
Carlos
López-Cantera
Adam
Putnam
Allen
West
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [145] March 19–22, 2015425± 4.8%12%25%8%38%18%
41%15%43%
Gravis Marketing [146] February 24–25, 2015513± 4%9%36%12%43%
Public Policy Polling [147] September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%17%38%16%29%

Results

Republican primary results [148]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 1,029,830 71.99%
Republican Carlos Beruff 264,42718.49%
Republican Dwight Young91,0826.37%
Republican Ernie Rivera45,1533.16%
Total votes1,430,492 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and independent candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 (running as an Independent) [155] [156]

Declined

Endorsements

Alan Grayson

Politicians

Activists

Labor unions

Organizations

Pam Keith

Newspaper Editorial Boards

Patrick Murphy

Presidents

Vice Presidents

U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors and other municipal leaders

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspaper Editorial Boards

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Alan
Grayson
Pam
Keith
Lateresa
Jones
Patrick
Murphy
Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon [216] August 22–24, 2016400± 5%22%4%55%19%
Florida Atlantic University [124] August 19–22, 20163648%7%54%22%
Florida Chamber of Commerce [125] August 17–22, 2016258± 4.0%11%40%38%
St. Leo University [126] August 14–18, 2016532± 4.5%17%8%48%27%
Suffolk University [217] August 1–3, 2016194± 4.4%17%2%36%45%
St. Pete Polls [218] August 2, 20161,807± 2.3%20%7%45%28%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA [129] June 25–27, 2016618± 4.0%21%10%30%35%
Vox Populi Polling (R) [219] June 19–20, 2016530± 4.3%15%5%19%62%
Targeted Persuasion [220] June 14–16, 2016862± 3.34%30%5%27%38%
St. Leo University [131] June 10–16, 2016500± 7%14%3%4%16%61%
Mason-Dixon [221] May 31–June 2, 2016400± 5%23%3%31%43%
Public Policy Polling [222] March 22–23, 2016829 ?33%32%35%
St. Leo University [223] March 13–17, 2016540± 5%17%20%63%
Mason-Dixon [224] March 7–9, 2016500± 4.5%19%33%48%
SurveyUSA [225] March 4–6, 2016592± 4.1%16%11%27%46%
Bendixon & Amandi/The Tarrance Group [226] March 2–5, 2016449± 6%19%27%54%
Univision [227] March 2–5, 2016449± 6%29%36%35%
Public Policy Polling [135] February 24–25, 2016388± 5%33%22%45%
20/20 Insight LLC* [228] ~February 16–18, 2016646± 3.9%41%32%27%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business [136] January 15–18, 2016371± 5%27%20%53%
St. Leo University [138] November 29–December 3, 2015160± 7.5%7%4%6%17%55%
Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015368± 5.1%33%27%39%
Mason-Dixon [140] July 20–24, 2015500± 4.5%24%26%50%
33%32%35%
St. Pete Polls [229] July 15, 20151,018± 3.1%30%8%23%39%
Gravis Marketing [142] June 16–20, 2015881± 3.3%63%19%18%
Vox Populi Polling (R) [230] June 15–17, 2015717± 3.7%24%34%42%
St. Leo University [143] May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%24%27%49%
Mason-Dixon [231] April 14–16, 2015400± 5%14%23%63%
Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015371± 5.1%22%21%56%
* Internal poll for Alan Grayson

    Results

    County results Florida Senate D Primary 2016.svg
    County results
    Democratic primary results [148]
    PartyCandidateVotes%
    Democratic Patrick Murphy 665,985 58.92%
    Democratic Alan Grayson 199,92917.72%
    Democratic Pam Keith173,91915.40%
    Democratic Rocky De La Fuente 60,8105.38%
    Democratic Reginald Luster29,1382.58%
    Total votes1,129,781 100.00%

    Libertarian primary

    On October 1, 2015, Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Libertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defended eugenics, called for a new Civil War, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations, "deliberate misrepresentation[s]." [233]

    Candidates

    Declared

    Declined

    Endorsements

    Paul Stanton

    Individuals

    Libertarian Party of Florida Affiliates

    • Libertarian Party of Broward County [237] [244]
    • Libertarian Party of Collier County [237] [242]
    • Libertarian Party of Pinellas County [237] [242]
    • Libertarian Party of Santa Rosa County [245]
    • Libertarian Party of Volusia County [237] [242]
    • Northwest Florida Libertarian Party [237] [244] [246]
    • Libertarian Party of Palm Beach County [247]

    Organizations

    • Eastern Liberty Alliance PAC [237]
    • Ninjas for Liberty PAC [237]
    Augustus Sol Invictus

    Individuals

    • Keon A. Grayson, North Central, Miami-Dade County Community Councilman [248]
    • Steve Scheetz, former Chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party [249]
    • Bill Wohlsifer, former candidate for Florida Attorney General [250]

    Results

    2016 United States Senate Libertarian primary in Florida by county
Map legend
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Stanton--50-60%
Stanton--60-70%
Stanton--70-80%
Stanton--80-90%
Stanton-->90%
Invictus--50-60%
Tie--50%
No votes 2016 US Senate Libertarian Primary in Florida by county.svg
    2016 United States Senate Libertarian primary in Florida by county
    Map legend
    •   Stanton—50-60%
    •   Stanton—60-70%
    •   Stanton—70-80%
    •   Stanton—80-90%
    •   Stanton—>90%
    •   Invictus—50-60%
    •   Tie—50%
    •   No votes
    Libertarian primary results [148]
    PartyCandidateVotes%
    Libertarian Paul Stanton 2,946 73.48%
    Libertarian Augustus Sol Invictus 1,06326.52%
    Total votes4,009 100.00%

    Independent

    Candidates

    Declared

    No party affiliation

    Candidates

    Declared

    General election

    Debates

    DatesLocationRubioMurphyStantonLink
    October 17, 2016 Orlando, Florida ParticipantParticipantNot Invited [258]
    October 26, 2016 Davie, Florida ParticipantParticipantNot Invited [259]

    Predictions

    SourceRankingAs of
    The Cook Political Report [260] Lean RNovember 2, 2016
    Sabato's Crystal Ball [261] Lean RNovember 7, 2016
    Rothenberg Political Report [262] Lean RNovember 3, 2016
    Daily Kos [263] Lean RNovember 8, 2016
    Real Clear Politics [264] TossupNovember 7, 2016

    Polling

    Graphical summary

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Marco
    Rubio (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    Paul
    Stanton (L)
    OtherUndecided
    SurveyMonkey [265] November 1–7, 20164,092± 4.6%48%49%3%
    Quinnipiac University [266] November 3–6, 2016884± 3.3%50%43%2%5%
    Alliance/ESA Poll [267] November 2–6, 2016875± 4.2%51%40%9%
    SurveyMonkey [268] October 31–November 6, 20163,574± 4.6%48%49%3%
    CBS News/YouGov [269] November 2–4, 20161,188± 3.6%47%44%3%6%
    SurveyMonkey [270] October 28–November 3, 20163,356± 4.6%49%49%2%
    Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [271] November 1–2, 20161,220± 2.8%47%46%7%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy [272] November 1–2, 2016603± 4.0%50%46%4%
    SurveyMonkey [273] October 27–November 2, 20162,901± 4.6%49%48%3%
    CNN/ORC [274] October 27–November 1, 2016773 LV± 3.5%49%48%2%
    884 RV50%47%3%
    Quinnipiac University [275] October 27–November 1, 2016626± 3.9%50%44%1%4%
    SurveyMonkey [276] October 26–November 1, 20162,715± 4.6%49%47%4%
    SurveyMonkey [277] October 25–31, 20162,809± 4.6%49%47%4%
    TargetSmart/William & Mary [278] October 25–28, 2016718± 3.4%49%43%7%1%
    Emerson College [279] October 26–27, 2016500± 4.3%49%47%3%1%
    New York Times Upshot/Siena College [280] October 25–27, 2016814± 3.4%51%42%5%
    Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [281] October 25–26, 20161,301± 2.7%46%46%8%
    Public Policy Polling [282] October 25–26, 2016742± 3.6%46%46%8%
    NBC/WSJ/Marist [283] October 25–26, 2016779 LV± 3.5%51%43%4%2%
    990 RV± 3.1%50%42%4%3%
    St. Leo University [284] October 22–26, 20161,028± 3.0%44%39%17%
    University of North Florida [285] October 20–25, 2016836± 3.6%49%43%8%
    Bloomberg/Selzer [286] October 21–24, 2016953± 3.2%51%41%8%
    Florida Atlantic University [287] October 21–23, 2016500± 4.3%46%42%12%
    Bay News 9/SurveyUSA [288] October 20–24, 20161,251± 2.8%45%41%6%8%
    CBS News/YouGov [289] October 20–21, 20161,042± 3.6%44%42%6%8%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy [290] October 20, 2016538± 4.2%46%46%8%
    Google Consumer Surveys [291] October 18–20, 2016500± 4.2%57%38%5%
    Associated Industries of Florida [292] October 19, 20161,000± 3.1%43%38%8%11%
    Florida Chamber of Commerce [293] October 16–19, 2016507± 4.4%51%37%1%11%
    The Times-Picayune/Lucid [294] October 17–18, 2016892± 3.0%45%44%11%
    Quinnipiac University [295] October 10–16, 2016660± 3.8%49%47%4%
    Washington Post/SurveyMonkey [296] October 8–16, 20161,702± 0.5%51%45%4%
    Public Policy Polling [297] October 12–13, 2016985± 3.1%44%38%6%12%
    48%43%9%
    Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [298] October 11–13, 20161,799± 2.3%44%36%20%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy [299] October 10–11, 2016533± 4.2%48%44%8%
    NBC/WSJ/Marist [300] October 3–5, 2016700± 3.7%48%46%2%4%
    Associated Industries of Florida [301] October 2–5, 2016600± 4.0%49%41%1%9%
    Breitbart/Gravis Marketing [302] October 4, 2016821± 3.4%44%40%16%
    Emerson College [303] October 2–4, 2016600± 3.6%47%39%6%8%
    University of North Florida [304] September 27–October 4, 2016667± 3.8%48%41%1%10%
    Quinnipiac University [305] September 27–October 2, 2016545± 4.2%48%44%8%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy [306] September 28–29, 2016619± 4.0%47%43%10%
    Mason-Dixon [307] September 27–29, 2016820± 3.5%47%40%5%2%6%
    Public Policy Polling [308] September 27–28, 2016826± 3.4%42%35%9%15%
    47%44%9%
    Suffolk University [309] September 19–21, 2016500± 4.4%43%34%2%4%17%
    Florida Chamber of Commerce [310] September 15–20, 2016617± 4.0%46%42%11%
    Monmouth University [311] September 16–19, 2016400± 4.9%47%45%3%5%
    Saint Leo University [312] September 10–16, 2016502± 4.5%44%35%21%
    New York Times Upshot/Siena College [313] September 10–14, 2016867± 3.3%48%42%8%
    CNN/ORC [314] September 7–12, 2016788 LV± 3.0%54%43%1%2%
    886 RV51%45%1%4%
    Global Strategy Group [315] September 6–11, 2016800± 3.5%47%45%8%
    JMC Analytics (R) [316] September 7–8, 2016781± 3.5%43%38%4%15%
    Quinnipiac University [317] August 31–September 7, 2016601± 4.0%50%43%1%6%
    Public Policy Polling [318] September 4–6, 2016744± 3.6%40%37%10%13%
    Mason-Dixon [319] August 22–24, 2016625± 4.0%46%43%11%
    iCitizen [320] August 18–24, 2016600± 4.0%43%42%16%
    Florida Atlantic University [321] August 19–22, 20161,200± 2.7%44%39%17%
    St. Leo University [126] August 14–18, 20161,380± 3.0%46%38%16%
    Monmouth University [322] August 12–15, 2016402± 4.9%48%43%3%5%
    FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy [323] August 10, 2016622± 4.0%45%43%12%
    Civis Analytics [324] August 9–15, 20161,436± 2.8%44%45%9%
    NBC/WSJ/Marist [325] August 4–10, 2016862± 3.3%49%43%3%5%
    Public Policy Polling [326] August 5–7, 2016938± 3.2%42%40%18%
    Quinnipiac University [327] July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%48%45%7%
    Suffolk University [328] August 1–3, 2016500± 4.4%46%33%21%
    JMC Analytics (R) [329] July 9–10, 2016700± 3.7%40%33%5%21%
    NBC/WSJ/Marist [330] July 5–11, 2016871± 3.3%47%44%2%7%
    Quinnipiac University [331] June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%50%37%1%8%
    Bay News 9/SurveyUSA [129] June 25–27, 20161,678± 2.4%43%43%7%8%
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%47%40%13%
    Public Policy Polling [333] June 15–16, 2016508± 4.4%41%42%17%
    Public Policy Polling [334] June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%43%44%13%
    Associated Industries of Florida [335] April 25–27, 2016604± 5.0%49%41%10%
    Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%46%40%14%
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%48%41%11%
    Mason-Dixon [336] March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%50%38%12%
    Public Policy Polling [147] September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%46%41%12%
    Hypothetical polling

    with Ron DeSantis

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Ron
    DeSantis (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%33%41%1%24%
    Quinnipiac University [337] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%38%36%26%
    Public Policy Polling [135] February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%34%40%26%
    Quinnipiac University [338] September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%31%37%1%26%
    Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%37%36%28%
    Quinnipiac University [339] June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%32%38%1%29%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Ron
    DeSantis (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%32%42%1%25%
    Quinnipiac University [340] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%35%36%29%
    Associated Industries of Florida [335] April 25–27, 2016604± 5%28%40%32%
    Public Policy Polling [135] February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%31%43%26%
    Quinnipiac University [341] September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%30%37%1%29%
    Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%40%25%
    Quinnipiac University [339] June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%31%39%1%29%
    St. Leo University [143] May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%14%33%53%

    with David Jolly

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    David
    Jolly (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%41%1%24%
    Public Policy Polling [334] June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%33%40%27%
    Quinnipiac University [342] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%35%28%
    Public Policy Polling [135] February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%38%35%26%
    Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%39%36%26%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    David
    Jolly (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%41%1%25%
    Public Policy Polling [334] June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%29%44%27%
    Quinnipiac University [343] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%34%37%29%
    Associated Industries of Florida [335] April 25–27, 2016604± 5%33%40%27%
    Public Policy Polling [135] February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%34%38%27%
    Democracy Corps [344] October 24–28, 2015400± 4.9%44%43%13%
    Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%40%25%
    St. Leo University [143] May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%14%35%52%

    with Carlos Lopez-Cantera

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Carlos
    López-Cantera (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%35%40%1%24%
    Quinnipiac University [345] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%37%26%
    Public Policy Polling [135] February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%35%38%26%
    Quinnipiac University [346] September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%32%35%1%27%
    Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%34%41%24%
    Quinnipiac University [339] June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%31%37%1%31%
    Quinnipiac University [347] March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%33%32%1%34%
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%36%40%24%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Carlos
    López-Cantera (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%32%41%1%26%
    Quinnipiac University [348] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%34%38%28%
    Associated Industries of Florida [335] April 25–27, 2016604± 5%31%42%27%
    Public Policy Polling [135] February 24–25, 20161,012± 3.1%31%40%29%
    Quinnipiac University [349] September 25-October 5, 20151,173± 2.9%29%37%1%30%
    Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%35%41%24%
    Quinnipiac University [339] June 4–15, 20151,147± 2.9%28%40%1%32%
    St. Leo University [143] May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%15%30%56%
    Quinnipiac University [347] March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%31%35%1%33%
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%34%41%25%

    with Jeff Atwater

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Jeff
    Atwater (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [347] March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%42%32%1%25%
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%41%40%19%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Jeff
    Atwater (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [347] March 17–28, 20151,087± 3%38%34%1%27%
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%41%39%20%
    Mason-Dixon [336] March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%46%32%22%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Jeff
    Atwater (R)
    Debbie
    Wasserman
    Schultz (D)
    Undecided
    Mason-Dixon [336] March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%45%35%20%

    with Pam Bondi

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Pam
    Bondi (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    Undecided
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%45%42%13%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Pam
    Bondi (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    Undecided
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%45%41%14%

    with Don Gaetz

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Don
    Gaetz (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    Undecided
    St. Leo University [143] May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%9%36%55%

    with Jeff Miller

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Jeff
    Miller (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    Undecided
    St. Leo University [143] May 25–31, 2015535± 4.5%15%34%52%

    with Marco Rubio

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Marco
    Rubio (R)
    Alex
    Sink (D)
    Undecided
    Public Policy Polling [350] September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%45%42%13%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Marco
    Rubio (R)
    Debbie
    Wasserman
    Schultz (D)
    Undecided
    Mason-Dixon [336] March 3–5, 2015800± 3.5%53%36%11%
    Public Policy Polling [147] September 4–7, 2014818± 3.4%47%43%9%
    Public Policy Polling [351] June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%48%40%12%
    Public Policy Polling [350] September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%46%43%11%

    with Allen West

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Allen
    West (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    Undecided
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%39%42%19%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Allen
    West (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    Undecided
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%39%41%20%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Allen
    West (R)
    Alex
    Sink (D)
    Undecided
    Public Policy Polling [350] September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%38%44%18%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Allen
    West (R)
    Debbie
    Wasserman
    Schultz (D)
    Undecided
    Public Policy Polling [351] June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%41%40%19%
    Public Policy Polling [350] September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%40%44%16%

    with Todd Wilcox

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Todd
    Wilcox (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%34%39%2%24%
    Quinnipiac University [352] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%37%35%28%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Todd
    Wilcox (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%31%41%1%26%
    Quinnipiac University [353] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%33%38%27%

    with Carlos Beruff

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Carlos
    Beruff (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [354] July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%39%43%1%17%
    Quinnipiac University [355] June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%38%38%1%19%
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%33%40%1%25%
    Public Policy Polling [334] June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%32%41%28%
    Quinnipiac University [356] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%35%36%29%
    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Carlos
    Beruff (R)
    Patrick
    Murphy (D)
    OtherUndecided
    Quinnipiac University [357] July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%34%48%1%17%
    Quinnipiac University [358] June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%34%40%1%19%
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%31%43%1%26%
    Public Policy Polling [334] June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%31%43%27%
    Quinnipiac University [359] April 27–May 8, 20161,051± 3.0%32%38%29%
    Associated Industries of Florida [335] April 25–27, 2016604± 5.0%31%39%30%

    with Alan Grayson

    Poll sourceDate(s)
    administered
    Sample
    size
    Margin of
    error
    Marco
    Rubio (R)
    Alan
    Grayson (D)
    OtherUndecided
    iCitizen [320] August 18–24, 2016600± 4.0%44%39%16%
    St. Leo University [126] August 14–18, 20161,380± 3.0%47%34%19%
    Monmouth University [322] August 12–15, 2016402± 4.9%50%39%5%6%
    Quinnipiac University [360] July 30–August 7, 20161,056± 3.0%49%43%1%8%
    Suffolk University [361] August 1–3, 2016500± 4.4%45%31%24%
    JMC Analytics (R) [329] July 9–10, 2016700± 3.7%41%33%4%22%
    Quinnipiac University [362] June 30–July 11, 20161,015± 3.1%50%38%1%8%
    Quinnipiac University [332] June 8–19, 2016975± 3.1%50%38%1%11%
    Public Policy Polling [333] June 15–16, 2016508± 4.4%42%40%17%
    Public Policy Polling [334] June 2–5, 2016737± 3.6%43%38%19%
    Public Policy Polling [139] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%48%38%14%
    Public Policy Polling [232] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%49%40%11%

    Results

    United States Senate election in Florida, 2016 [363]
    PartyCandidateVotes%±%
    Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 4,835,191 51.98% +3.09%
    Democratic Patrick Murphy 4,122,08844.31%+24.11%
    Libertarian Paul Stanton 196,9562.12%+1.66%
    Independent Bruce Nathan52,4510.56%N/A
    Independent Tony Khoury45,8200.49%N/A
    Independent Steven Machat 26,9180.29%N/A
    Independent Basil E. Dalack22,2360.24%N/A
    Write-in 1600.00%0.00%
    Total votes9,301,820 100.00% N/A
    Republican hold

    Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

    Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

    Counties that from Independent to Republican

    By congressional district

    Rubio won 16 of 27 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Murphy. Each candidate won a congressional district that elected a representative of the other party. [364]

    DistrictRubioMurphyRepresentative
    1st 70%25% Jeff Miller
    Matt Gaetz
    2nd 66%30% Gwen Graham
    Neal Dunn
    3rd 59%37% Ted Yoho
    4th 68%28% Ander Crenshaw
    John Rutherford
    5th 41%55% Corrine Brown
    Al Lawson
    6th 57%39% Ron DeSantis
    7th 48%46% John Mica
    Stephanie Murphy
    8th 59%36% Bill Posey
    9th 46%50% Alan Grayson
    Darren Soto
    10th 40%56% Daniel Webster
    Val Demings
    11th 62%33% Rich Nugent
    Daniel Webster
    12th 56%38% Gus Bilirakis
    13th 47%48% David Jolly
    Charlie Crist
    14th 44%52% Kathy Castor
    15th 54%41% Dennis Ross
    16th 55%40% Vern Buchanan
    17th 62%33% Tom Rooney
    18th 52%45% Patrick Murphy
    Brian Mast
    19th 65%31% Curt Clawson
    Francis Rooney
    20th 21%77% Alcee Hastings
    21st 42%55% Lois Frankel
    22nd 43%55% Ted Deutch
    23rd 40%58% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
    24th 20%77% Frederica Wilson
    25th 60%37% Mario Díaz-Balart
    26th 49%48% Carlos Curbelo
    27th 48.6%49.2% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

    See also

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