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All 8 Minnesota seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Minnesota, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 9.
This is the last cycle where the Democrat candidate would win either the 1st or 8th district and the last cycle Republicans candidate would win either the 2nd or 3rd district.
United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2016 [1] | ||||||
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Party | Votes | Percentage | Seats before | Seats after | +/– | |
Democratic (DFL) | 1,434,559 | 50.20% | 5 | 5 | - | |
Republican | 1,334,679 | 46.70% | 3 | 3 | - | |
Legal Marijuana Now | 57,911 | 2.02% | 0 | 0 | - | |
Independence | 28,870 | 1.01% | 0 | 0 | - | |
Others | 4,370 | 0.15% | 0 | 0 | - | |
Totals | 2,860,389 | 100.00% | 8 | 8 | — |
Results of the 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota by district:
District | Democratic | Republican | Others | Total | Result | ||||
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Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
District 1 | 169,074 | 50.34% | 166,526 | 49.58% | 277 | 0.08% | 335,600 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
District 2 | 167,315 | 45.16% | 173,970 | 46.95% | 29,229 | 7.89% | 370,514 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 3 | 169,243 | 43.01% | 223,077 | 56.70% | 1,144 | 0.29% | 393,464 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 4 | 203,299 | 57.76% | 121,032 | 34.39% | 27,613 | 7.85% | 351,944 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
District 5 | 249,964 | 69.07% | 80,660 | 22.29% | 31,258 | 8.64% | 361,882 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
District 6 | 123,008 | 34.27% | 235,380 | 65.58% | 536 | 0.15% | 358,924 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
District 7 | 173,589 | 52.47% | 156,952 | 47.44% | 307 | 0.09% | 330,848 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
District 8 | 179,098 | 50.17% | 177,089 | 49.61% | 792 | 0.22% | 356,979 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
Total | 1,434,559 | 50.15% | 1,334,679 | 46.66% | 91,151 | 3.19% | 2,860,389 | 100.00% |
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Incumbent Democrat Tim Walz, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 54% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+1.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz (incumbent) | 13,538 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 13,538 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Jim Hagedorn | 10,851 | 76.5 | |
Republican | Steve Williams | 3,330 | 23.5 | |
Total votes | 14,181 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz (incumbent) | 169,074 | 50.3 | |
Republican | Jim Hagedorn | 166,526 | 49.6 | |
Write-in | 277 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 335,877 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
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Precinct results Lewis: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Craig: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican John Kline, who had represented the district since 2003, announced that he would not seek re-election. [7] He was re-elected with 56% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+2.
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No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
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Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||||
David Benson-Staebler | David Gerson | John Howe | Jason Lewis | Pam Myhra | |||||
1 [33] | Nov. 19, 2015 | Republicans in Senate District 52 | [34] | P | P | P | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Jason Lewis | 11,641 | 48.9 | |
Republican | Darlene Miller | 7,305 | 30.7 | |
Republican | John Howe | 3,244 | 13.6 | |
Republican | Matthew D. Erickson | 1,612 | 6.8 | |
Total votes | 23,802 | 100.0 |
Democrat Angela Craig, who served as vice president of global human resources for St. Jude Medical, resigned from her position in January 2015 to challenge Lewis. [35] Mary Lawrence, a doctor, also ran as a Democrat, [36] but dropped out before the primary.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Angie Craig | 15,155 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 15,155 | 100.0 |
Commentators wrote that the election was "likely to be one of the most-watched congressional races in the country," ( MinnPost [46] ), "expected to be one of the most competitive in the country", according to Roll Call newspaper, [47] and "seen as a prime target for Democrats to flip" according to The Atlantic . [48]
Area left-wing weekly City Pages described the campaign as resembling the 2016 presidential campaign, calling Lewis "an entrepreneur and media personality, whose blunt rhetoric is refreshingly honest to some, simply offensive to others", and describing Craig as "a tough female leader with moderate positions, ties to big business, and a penchant for pantsuits". [49]
In May 2016, the Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report changed its rating of the race from "pure tossup" to "tossup/tilt Democratic," [50] with political analyst Nathan Gonzales writing that Craig "is probably to the left of the district in her ideology, but she has a good story to tell, is raising considerable money (she had $1.3 million in the bank at the end of March) and is solid as a candidate." [50] Other political prognosticators rated the race "Republican Toss-up" (Charlie Cook), and "pure" toss-up (Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball"), according to MinnPost. [50]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jason Lewis (R) | Angie Craig (D) | Paula Overby (I) | Undecided |
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SurveyUSA [65] | October 13–16, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 46% | — | 12% |
WPA Opinion Research (R-NRCC) [66] | October 9–10, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 36% | 33% | — | 26% |
Gerstein Bocian Agne Strategies (D-Craig) [67] | August 13–16, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 43% | 9% | 6% |
WPA Opinion Research (R-Lewis/NRCC) [68] | August 14–15, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 39% | 27% | 7% | 25% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [69] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Daily Kos Elections [70] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg [71] | Tilt D (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [72] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
RCP [73] | Lean D (flip) | October 31, 2016 |
Lewis ended up defeating Craig by several thousand votes. [74]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Jason Lewis | 173,970 | 46.9 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Angie Craig | 167,315 | 45.2 | |
Independence | Paula Overby | 28,869 | 7.8 | |
Write-in | 360 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 370,514 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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Precinct results Paulsen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Bonoff: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+2.
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Erik Paulsen (R) | Terri Bonoff (D) | Undecided |
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SurveyUSA [78] | October 10–13, 2016 | 579 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
Clarity Campaign Lab (D-House Majority PAC) [79] | September 11–13, 2016 | 353 | ± 4.34% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
DCCC (D) [80] | September 12, 2016 | 353 | ± 5.2% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
Newton Heath LLC (R-AAN) [81] | August 9–11, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
Victoria Research & Consulting (D-Bonoff) [82] | June 27–30, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [69] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
Daily Kos Elections [70] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg [71] | Likely R | November 3, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [72] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
RCP [73] | Lean R | October 31, 2016 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Erik Paulsen (incumbent) | 223,077 | 56.7 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Terri Bonoff | 169,243 | 43.0 | |
Write-in | 1,144 | 0.3 | ||
Total votes | 393,464 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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Precinct results McCollum: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Ryan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+11.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Betty McCollum (incumbent) | 33,336 | 94.0 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Steve Carlson | 2,128 | 6.0 | |
Total votes | 35,464 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Greg Ryan | 5,618 | 82.0 | |
Republican | Gene Rechtzigel | 845 | 12.3 | |
Republican | Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey | 390 | 5.7 | |
Total votes | 6,853 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Betty McCollum (incumbent) | 203,299 | 57.8 | |
Republican | Greg Ryan | 121,032 | 34.4 | |
Legal Marijuana Now | Susan Pendergast Sindt | 27,152 | 7.7 | |
Write-in | 461 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 351,944 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
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Precinct results Ellison: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Drake: 40–50% 50–60% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democrat Keith Ellison, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+71.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Keith Ellison (incumbent) | 40,380 | 91.7 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Gregg Iverson | 1,887 | 4.3 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Lee Bauer | 1,757 | 4.0 | |
Total votes | 44,024 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Frank Nelson Drake | 4,177 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 4,177 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Keith Ellison (incumbent) | 249,964 | 69.1 | |
Republican | Frank Nelson Drake | 80,660 | 22.3 | |
Legal Marijuana Now | Dennis Schuller | 30,759 | 8.5 | |
Write-in | 499 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 361,875 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
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Precinct results Emmer: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Snyder: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was elected with 56% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+10.
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Tom Emmer (incumbent) | 13,590 | 68.7 | |
Republican | A. J. Kern | 5,219 | 26.4 | |
Republican | Patrick Munro | 962 | 4.9 | |
Total votes | 19,771 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | David Snyder | 4,402 | 46.0 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Judy Evelyn Adams | 3,569 | 37.3 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Bob Helland | 1,595 | 16.7 | |
Total votes | 9,566 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Tom Emmer (incumbent) | 235,380 | 65.6 | |
Democratic (DFL) | David Snyder | 123,008 | 34.3 | |
Write-in | 536 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 358,924 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
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Incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 54% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+6.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Collin Peterson (incumbent) | 16,253 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 16,253 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Dave Hughes | 8,769 | 59.0 | |
Republican | Amanda Lynn Hinson | 6,104 | 41.0 | |
Total votes | 14,873 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Collin Peterson (incumbent) | 173,589 | 52.5 | |
Republican | Dave Hughes | 156,952 | 47.4 | |
Write-in | 307 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 330,848 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
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Incumbent Democrat Rick Nolan, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 49% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+1.
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No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
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Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Rick Nolan | Stewart Mills | |||||
1 | Oct. 23, 2016 | KSTP-TV | Leah McLean | [87] | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Nolan (D) | Stewart Mills (R) | Undecided |
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SurveyUSA [88] | October 16–19, 2016 | 595 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [69] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Daily Kos Elections [70] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg [71] | Lean D | November 3, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [72] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
RCP [73] | Tossup D | October 31, 2016 |
Though Nolan's margin of victory (2,009 votes) was too large to trigger a publicly funded automatic recount, Mills, as of late November 2016, said that he planned to request and pay for a hand recount of all votes cast in the eighth district, as is his right under law. Mills planned to cover the cost of the recount—just over $100,000— himself. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Minnesota had not seen a recount in a race for the House of Representatives since 2000, when election day totals in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district fell within the half percentage point threshold, thus triggering a state-funded recount. It is not known if Mills's request for a privately funded recount has precedent in Minnesota's electoral history, at least as it pertains to elections for the House of Representatives. [89]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Democratic (DFL) | Rick Nolan (incumbent) | 179,098 | 50.2 | |
Republican | Stewart Mills | 177,089 | 49.6 | |
Write-in | 792 | 0.2 | ||
Total votes | 356,979 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
The 2008 Minnesota U.S. House of Representatives elections took place on November 4, 2008. All 8 congressional seats that make up the state's delegation were contested. Representatives were elected for two-year terms; those elected served in the 111th United States Congress from January 4, 2009, until January 3, 2011.
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