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All 8 Minnesota seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota were held on November 8, 2016, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Minnesota, one from each of the state's eight congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 9.
This is the last cycle where the Democratic candidate would win either the 1st or 8th district and the last cycle Republicans candidate would win either the 2nd or 3rd district.
| Party | Candidates | Votes [1] | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
| Democratic-Farmer-Labor | 8 | 1,434,590 | 50.15 | 5 | 62.50 | ||
| Republican | 8 | 1,334,686 | 46.66 | 3 | 37.50 | ||
| Legal Marijuana Now | 2 | 57,911 | 2.02 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Independence | 1 | 28,869 | 1.01 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Write-in | 8 | 4,376 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
| Total | 27 | 2,860,432 | 100.0 | 8 | 100.0 | ||
Results of the 2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota by district:
| District | Democratic | Republican | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 169,074 | 50.34% | 166,526 | 49.58% | 277 | 0.08% | 335,600 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
| District 2 | 167,315 | 45.16% | 173,970 | 46.95% | 29,229 | 7.89% | 370,514 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
| District 3 | 169,243 | 43.01% | 223,077 | 56.70% | 1,144 | 0.29% | 393,464 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
| District 4 | 203,299 | 57.76% | 121,032 | 34.39% | 27,613 | 7.85% | 351,944 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
| District 5 | 249,964 | 69.07% | 80,660 | 22.29% | 31,258 | 8.64% | 361,882 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
| District 6 | 123,008 | 34.27% | 235,380 | 65.58% | 536 | 0.15% | 358,924 | 100.00% | Republican hold |
| District 7 | 173,589 | 52.47% | 156,952 | 47.44% | 307 | 0.09% | 330,848 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
| District 8 | 179,098 | 50.17% | 177,089 | 49.61% | 792 | 0.22% | 356,979 | 100.00% | Democratic hold |
| Total | 1,434,590 | 50.15% | 1,334,686 | 46.66% | 91,156 | 3.19% | 2,860,432 | 100.00% | |
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Incumbent Democrat Tim Walz, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 54% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+1.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz (incumbent) | 13,538 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 13,538 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Hagedorn | 10,851 | 76.5 | |
| Republican | Steve Williams | 3,330 | 23.5 | |
| Total votes | 14,181 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [6] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections [7] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg [8] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP [10] | Likely D | October 31, 2016 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz (incumbent) | 169,074 | 50.3 | |
| Republican | Jim Hagedorn | 166,526 | 49.6 | |
| Write-in | 277 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 335,877 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | ||||
| Candidate (party) | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz (DFL) | $1,547,890 | $1,585,118 | $42,071 |
| Jim Hagedorn (R) | $354,204 | $356,277 | $225 |
| Candidate (party) | Supported | Opposed |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz (DFL) | $0 | $0 |
| Jim Hagedorn (R) | $1,463 | $0 |
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Precinct results Lewis: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Craig: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican John Kline, who had represented the district since 2003, announced that he would not seek re-election. [12] He was re-elected with 56% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+2.
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| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||||
| David Benson-Staebler | David Gerson | John Howe | Jason Lewis | Pam Myhra | |||||
| 1 [38] | Nov. 19, 2015 | Republicans in Senate District 52 | [39] | P | P | P | P | P | |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jason Lewis | 11,641 | 48.9 | |
| Republican | Darlene Miller | 7,305 | 30.7 | |
| Republican | John Howe | 3,244 | 13.6 | |
| Republican | Matthew D. Erickson | 1,612 | 6.8 | |
| Total votes | 23,802 | 100.0 | ||
Democrat Angela Craig, who served as vice president of global human resources for St. Jude Medical, resigned from her position in January 2015 to challenge Lewis. [40] Mary Lawrence, a doctor, also ran as a Democrat, [41] but dropped out before the primary.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Angie Craig | 15,155 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 15,155 | 100.0 | ||
Commentators wrote that the election was "likely to be one of the most-watched congressional races in the country," ( MinnPost [51] ), "expected to be one of the most competitive in the country", according to Roll Call newspaper, [52] and "seen as a prime target for Democrats to flip" according to The Atlantic . [53]
Area left-wing weekly City Pages described the campaign as resembling the 2016 presidential campaign, calling Lewis "an entrepreneur and media personality, whose blunt rhetoric is refreshingly honest to some, simply offensive to others", and describing Craig as "a tough female leader with moderate positions, ties to big business, and a penchant for pantsuits". [54]
In May 2016, the Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report changed its rating of the race from "pure tossup" to "tossup/tilt Democratic," [55] with political analyst Nathan Gonzales writing that Craig "is probably to the left of the district in her ideology, but she has a good story to tell, is raising considerable money (she had $1.3 million in the bank at the end of March) and is solid as a candidate." [55] Other political prognosticators rated the race "Republican Toss-up" (Charlie Cook), and "pure" toss-up (Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball"), according to MinnPost. [55]
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jason Lewis (R) | Angie Craig (DFL) | Paula Overby (I) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA [70] | October 13–16, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 46% | — | 12% |
| WPA Opinion Research (R-NRCC) [71] | October 9–10, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 36% | 33% | — | 26% |
| GBA Strategies (D-Craig) [72] | August 13–16, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 43% | 9% | 6% |
| WPA Opinion Research (R-Lewis/NRCC) [73] | August 14–15, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 39% | 27% | 7% | 25% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [6] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections [7] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg [8] | Tilt D (flip) | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP [10] | Lean D (flip) | October 31, 2016 |
Lewis ended up defeating Craig by several thousand votes. [74]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jason Lewis | 173,970 | 46.9 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Angie Craig | 167,315 | 45.2 | |
| Independence | Paula Overby | 28,869 | 7.8 | |
| Write-in | 360 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 370,514 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
| Candidate (party) | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Lewis (R) | $1,030,485 | $1,020,649 | $9,837 | |
| Angie Craig (DFL) | $4,025,326 | $4,012,823 | $12,503 | |
| Paula Overby (I) | Unreported | |||
| Candidate (party) | Supported | Opposed |
|---|---|---|
| Jason Lewis (R) | $404,338 | $3,200,222 |
| Angie Craig (DFL) | $181,244 | $2,287,501 |
| Paula Overby (I) | $0 | $0 |
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Precinct results Paulsen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Bonoff: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+2.
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Erik Paulsen (R) | Terri Bonoff (DFL) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA [78] | October 10–13, 2016 | 579 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Clarity Campaign Lab (D-House Majority PAC) [79] | September 11–13, 2016 | 353 | ± 4.34% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| DCCC (D) [80] | September 12, 2016 | 353 | ± 5.2% | 38% | 40% | 22% |
| Newton Heath LLC (R-AAN) [81] | August 9–11, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
| Victoria Research & Consulting (D-Bonoff) [82] | June 27–30, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [6] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections [7] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg [8] | Likely R | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP [10] | Lean R | October 31, 2016 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Erik Paulsen (incumbent) | 223,077 | 56.7 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Terri Bonoff | 169,243 | 43.0 | |
| Write-in | 1,144 | 0.3 | ||
| Total votes | 393,464 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
| Candidate (party) | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Paulsen (R) | $4,939,819 | $5,761,611 | $373,169 |
| Terri Bonoff (DFL) | $1,970,869 | $1,970,297 | $572 |
| Candidate (party) | Supported | Opposed |
|---|---|---|
| Erik Paulsen (R) | $540,029 | $3,392,767 |
| Terri Bonoff (DFL) | $571,546 | $1,521,629 |
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Precinct results McCollum: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Ryan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 61% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+11.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Betty McCollum (incumbent) | 33,336 | 94.0 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Steve Carlson | 2,128 | 6.0 | |
| Total votes | 35,464 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Ryan | 5,618 | 82.0 | |
| Republican | Gene Rechtzigel | 845 | 12.3 | |
| Republican | Nikolay Nikolayevich Bey | 390 | 5.7 | |
| Total votes | 6,853 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [6] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections [7] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg [8] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP [10] | Safe D | October 31, 2016 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Betty McCollum (incumbent) | 203,299 | 57.8 | |
| Republican | Greg Ryan | 121,032 | 34.4 | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Susan Pendergast Sindt | 27,152 | 7.7 | |
| Write-in | 461 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 351,944 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | ||||
| Candidate (party) | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betty McCollum (DFL) | $915,558 | $962,049 | $124,672 | |
| Greg Ryan (R) | $51,293 | $48,298 | $2,996 | |
| Susan Sindt (LM) | Unreported | |||
| Candidate (party) | Supported | Opposed |
|---|---|---|
| Betty McCollum (DFL) | $3,679 | $0 |
| Greg Ryan (R) | $0 | $0 |
| Susan Sindt (LM) | $0 | $0 |
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Precinct results Ellison: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Drake: 40–50% 50–60% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democrat Keith Ellison, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+71.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Keith Ellison (incumbent) | 40,380 | 91.7 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Gregg Iverson | 1,887 | 4.3 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Lee Bauer | 1,757 | 4.0 | |
| Total votes | 44,024 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Frank Nelson Drake | 4,177 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 4,177 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [6] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections [7] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg [8] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP [10] | Safe D | October 31, 2016 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Keith Ellison (incumbent) | 249,964 | 69.1 | |
| Republican | Frank Drake | 80,660 | 22.3 | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Dennis Schuller | 30,759 | 8.5 | |
| Write-in | 499 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 361,875 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | ||||
| Candidate (party) | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Ellison (DFL) | $2,784,931 | $2,457,969 | $489,709 | |
| Frank Drake (R) | Unreported | |||
| Dennis Schuller (LM) | Unreported | |||
| Candidate (party) | Supported | Opposed |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Ellison (DFL) | $28 | $0 |
| Frank Drake (R) | $42 | $0 |
| Dennis Schuller (LM) | $0 | $0 |
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Precinct results Emmer: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Snyder: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Republican Tom Emmer, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was elected with 56% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+10.
Emmer was challenged from the right by AJ Kern, who criticized his positions on immigration, education and trade. Particularly his vote for Every Student Succeeds Act and his support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. She also objected to Muslims serving in elected office. [84]
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Emmer (incumbent) | 13,590 | 68.7 | |
| Republican | A. J. Kern | 5,219 | 26.4 | |
| Republican | Patrick Munro | 962 | 4.9 | |
| Total votes | 19,771 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | David Snyder | 4,402 | 46.0 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Judy Adams | 3,569 | 37.3 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Bob Helland | 1,595 | 16.7 | |
| Total votes | 9,566 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [6] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections [7] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg [8] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP [10] | Safe R | October 31, 2016 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Emmer (incumbent) | 235,380 | 65.6 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | David Snyder | 123,008 | 34.3 | |
| Write-in | 536 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 358,924 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
| Candidate (party) | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Emmer (R) | $1,837,927 | $1,718,560 | $137,565 | |
| David Snyder (DFL) | Unreported | |||
| Candidate (party) | Supported | Opposed |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Emmer (R) | $4,637 | $0 |
| David Snyder (DFL) | $0 | $0 |
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Incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 54% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of R+6.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Collin Peterson (incumbent) | 16,253 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 16,253 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dave Hughes | 8,769 | 59.0 | |
| Republican | Amanda Lynn Hinson | 6,104 | 41.0 | |
| Total votes | 14,873 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [6] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections [7] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg [8] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP [10] | Likely D | October 31, 2016 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Collin Peterson (incumbent) | 173,589 | 52.5 | |
| Republican | Dave Hughes | 156,952 | 47.4 | |
| Write-in | 307 | 0.1 | ||
| Total votes | 330,848 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | ||||
| Candidate (party) | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Peterson (DFL) | $1,201,913 | $682,928 | $569,667 |
| Dave Hughes (R) | $19,836 | $19,564 | $272 |
| Candidate (party) | Supported | Opposed |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Peterson (DFL) | $17,500 | $0 |
| Dave Hughes (R) | $220 | $0 |
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Incumbent Democrat Rick Nolan, who had represented the district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 49% of the vote in 2014. The district had a PVI of D+1.
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| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
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| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Rick Nolan | Stewart Mills | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 23, 2016 | KSTP-TV | Leah McLean | [91] | P | P |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rick Nolan (DFL) | Stewart Mills (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA [92] | October 16–19, 2016 | 595 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D–House Majority PAC) [93] | October 10–11, 2016 | 514 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Tarrance Group (R–NRCC/Mills for Congress) [94] | March 28–30, 2016 | 422 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [6] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
| Daily Kos Elections [7] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg [8] | Lean D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| RCP [10] | Tossup D | October 31, 2016 |
Though Nolan's margin of victory (2,009 votes) was too large to trigger a publicly funded automatic recount, Mills, as of late November 2016, said that he planned to request and pay for a hand recount of all votes cast in the eighth district, as is his right under law. Mills planned to cover the cost of the recount—just over $100,000— himself. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Minnesota had not seen a recount in a race for the House of Representatives since 2000, when election day totals in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district fell within the half percentage point threshold, thus triggering a state-funded recount. It is not known if Mills's request for a privately funded recount has precedent in Minnesota's electoral history, at least as it pertains to elections for the House of Representatives. [95]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Rick Nolan (incumbent) | 179,098 | 50.2 | |
| Republican | Stewart Mills III | 177,089 | 49.6 | |
| Write-in | 792 | 0.2 | ||
| Total votes | 356,979 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | ||||
| Candidate (party) | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Nolan (DFL) | $3,029,107 | $2,874,695 | $181,075 |
| Stewart Mills III (R) | $3,578,385 | $3,577,291 | $1,392 |
| Candidate (party) | Supported | Opposed |
|---|---|---|
| Rick Nolan (DFL) | $1,846,754 | $7,184,541 |
| Stewart Mills III (R) | $147,906 | $6,316,449 |
Former state Sen. John Howe has won a key endorsement from the National Rifle Association's Political Victory Fund