2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota

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2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Flag of Minnesota (1983-2024).svg
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  Amy Klobuchar, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg Kurt Bills (cropped).jpg
Nominee Amy Klobuchar Kurt Bills
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Popular vote1,854,595867,874
Percentage65.23%30.53%
2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota results map by county.svg
2012 Minnesota Senate election by Congressional District.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota results map by precinct.svg
Klobuchar:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Bills:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

The 2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar faced Republican State Representative Kurt Bills. Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Bills by a greater than 2-to-1 margin and carrying all but two of the state's 87 counties by double digits, only narrowly losing the counties of Pipestone and Rock in the state's southwest corner. [1] This election marked the first time since 1996 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected and the first time since 1976 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected to this seat.

Contents

Background

Incumbent Amy Klobuchar was first elected in 2006 to succeed the retiring DFL incumbent Mark Dayton. She beat Republican nominee Mark Kennedy, 58% to 38%. Klobuchar served as Minnesota's only senator between January 3 and July 7, 2009, due to the contested results of Minnesota's senatorial election held the previous year, finally decided in favor of DFLer Al Franken.

DFL primary

The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012. [2]

Candidates

Declared

  • Dick Franson, perennial candidate [3]
  • Amy Klobuchar, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Jack Shepard, dentist, convicted felon, fugitive and perennial candidate [4] [5]
  • Darryl Stanton

Results

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) 183,702 90.79
Democratic (DFL) Dick Franson6,8323.38
Democratic (DFL) Jack Shepard6,6383.28
Democratic (DFL) Darryl Stanton5,1602.55
Total votes202,332 100

Republican primary

The Republican Party of Minnesota held its nominating convention in May 2012 and held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012. [2]

Candidates

Declared

  • Kurt Bills, state representative; won May 2012 convention nomination [7]
  • David Carlson, former Marine Corps sergeant; candidate in August 2012 primary
  • Bob Carney Jr., inventor, independent businessman; finished 2nd in 2010 GOP primary for Governor of Minnesota, candidate in August 2012 primary [8]

Withdrew

  • Joe Arwood, St. Bonifacius city councilman; withdrew before May 2012 convention
  • Pete Hegseth, executive director of Vets for Freedom; withdrew after May 2012 convention
  • Anthony Hernandez, former state senate candidate; withdrew before May 2012 convention to run for Congress against Betty McCollum
  • Dan Severson, former state representative; withdrew after May 2012 convention

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Bills 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Carlson 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Minnesota U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg
Results by county:
  Bills
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Carlson
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kurt Bills 63,380 51.12
Republican David Carlson43,84735.37
Republican Bob Carney, Jr.16,75513.51
Total votes123,982 100

Independence primary

Campaign

The Independence Party of Minnesota did not plan to run a candidate in the general election. Party chairman Mark Jenkins said in November 2011 that he saw the Senate election as "a distraction from having our best and brightest engaged in state legislative races". [9] At the party's convention in June 2012, neither candidate was endorsed. Williams won a majority of the votes and came within two votes of the required 60% needed for the party's endorsement. He proceeded with his run for the Senate but the party focused its attention on state legislative races. [10]

Candidates

Results

Independence Party primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Independence Stephen Williams 3,068 59.67
Independence Glen R. Anderson Menze2,07440.33
Total votes5,142 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

On August 29 Klobuchar and Bills held their second debate at the State Fair, sponsored by MPR News. Their third debate, on September 16 in Duluth, was about the nation's struggle with deficit spending and unemployment. The audience was assembled by the Duluth Area Chamber of Commerce and Duluth News Tribune. [12] External links

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebtCurrent Through
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)$6,301,413$2,530,567$5,393,798$0July 25, 2012
Kurt Bills (R)$394,547$388,720$5,841$0July 25, 2012
Source: Federal Election Commission [13]

Top contributors

This section lists the top contributors by employer. These organizations themselves didn't donate, but these numbers include donations from their PACs, members, employees, owners, and their immediate families.

Amy KlobucharContributionKurt BillsContribution
Dorsey & Whitney $61,100Liberty PAC$10,000
Target Corp $56,050Craw$10,000
General Mills $51,750Primera Technology$10,000
U.S. Bancorp $51,139Minnesota Limited Pipeline$7,500
Robins, Kaplan, Miller & Ciresi $49,150 Ameriprise Financial $5,000
Medtronic Inc. $41,025 Bachmann for Congress $5,000
Toys R Us $36,500Exactdrive$5,000
Leonard, Street & Deinard $34,350New Spark Holdings$5,000
Comcast Corp $33,623TACPAC$5,000
Wells Fargo $32,400Twin City Fan Companies$5,000
Source: OpenSecrets, [14] Current through: March 9, 2012

Top industries

Amy KlobucharContributionKurt BillsContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $989,929 Leadership PACs $17,850
Retired$447,082 Republican/Conservative$13,750
Leadership PACs$302,150 Financial Institutions $13,250
Lobbyists $282,430Real Estate$12,550
Financial Institutions$269,033Retired$10,350
Entertainment industry$256,711Energy Industry$10,250
Women's Issues $196,866Electronics Manufacturing$10,000
Retail industry$181,850Misc. Business$9,450
Commercial Banks $159,139 Manufacturing & Distributing$7,850
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products$149,725 Computers/Internet$7,350
Source: OpenSecrets, [15] Current through: March 9, 2012

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [16] Solid DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Safe DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [18] Safe DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [19] Safe DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Kurt
Bills (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [20] May 31 – June 3, 2012973±3.1%55%29%—16%
Survey USA [21] July 17–19, 2012552±4.3%55%31%5%9%
KSTP/Survey USA [22] September 6–9, 2012551±4.2%55%34%—11%
Public Policy Polling [23] September 10–11, 2012824±3.4%55%36%—10%
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon [24] September 17–19, 2012800±3.5%57%28%7%8%
Public Policy Polling [25] October 5–8, 2012937±3.2%57%31%—12%
SurveyUSA/KSTP [26] October 12–14, 2012550±4.2%58%30%5%7%
St. Cloud State U. [27] October 15–21, 2012600±5%63%36%1%—
Rasmussen Reports [28] October 21, 2012500±4.5%56%33%2%9%
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon [29] October 23–25, 2012800±3.5%65%22%—13%
SurveyUSA [30] October 26–28, 2012574±4.1%60%29%4%7%
KSTP/SurveyUSA [31] November 1–3, 2012556±4.2%60%30%3%7%
Public Policy Polling [32] November 2–3, 20121,164±2.9%62%32%—6%
Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Michele
Bachmann		Laura
Brod		Norm
Coleman		Chip
Cravaack		Tom
Emmer		John
Kline		Erik
Paulsen		Tim
Pawlenty		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [33] December 4–5, 2010387±5.0%36%4%14%7%6%5%2%20%6%

General election

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Joe
Arwood (R)		OtherUndecided
Survey USA [34] November 2–6, 2011543±4.3%56%22%—22%
Public Policy Polling [35] January 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%55%30%—15%
Survey USA [36] January 31 – February 2, 2012542±4.2%59%28%—14%
Public Policy Polling [20] May 31 – June 3, 2012973±3.1%56%29%—15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Michele
Bachmann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [37] December 4–5, 2010949±3.2%56%39%—4%
Public Policy Polling [38] May 27–30, 20111,179±2.9%57%37%—5%
Public Policy Polling [35] January 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%58%35%—7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Norm
Coleman (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [37] December 4–5, 2010949±3.2%54%40%—6%
Survey USA [34] November 2–6, 2011543±4.3%50%37%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Tom
Emmer (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [37] December 4–5, 2010949±3.2%56%38%—6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Pete
Hegseth (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [20] May 31 – June 3, 2012973±3.1%56%28%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Anthony
Hernandez (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [35] January 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%55%29%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Erik
Paulsen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [37] December 4–5, 2010949±3.2%52%34%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Tim
Pawlenty (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [37] December 4–5, 2010949±3.2%53%43%—4%
Public Policy Polling [38] May 27–30, 20111,179±2.9%54%41%—5%
Survey USA [34] November 2–6, 2011543±4.3%49%37%—14%
Public Policy Polling [35] January 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%54%39%—7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Dan
Severson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] May 27–30, 20111,179±2.9%56%28%—16%
Survey USA [34] November 2–6, 2011543±4.3%55%23%—22%
Public Policy Polling [35] January 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%55%32%—13%
Survey USA [36] January 31 – February 2, 2012542±4.3%56%29%—15%
Public Policy Polling [20] May 31 – June 3, 2012973±3.1%55%27%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Dave
Thompson (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] May 27–30, 20111,179±2.9%55%28%—17%

Results

United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2012 [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) 1,854,595 65.23% +7.17%
Republican Kurt Bills 867,97430.53%−7.41%
Independence Stephen Williams73,5392.59%−0.64%
Grassroots Tim Davis 30,5311.07%N/A
Open Progressives Michael Cavlan 13,9860.49%N/A
Write-in 2,5820.09%+0.05%
Total votes2,843,207 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Klobuchar won all eight congressional districts, including three held by Republicans. [40]

DistrictKlobucharBillsRepresentative
1st 62%32% Tim Walz
2nd 62%34% John Kline
3rd 63%34% Erik Paulsen
4th 71%25% Betty McCollum
5th 79%17% Keith Ellison
6th 59%37% Michele Bachmann
7th 61%34% Collin Peterson
8th 65%31% Rick Nolan

See also

References

  1. ↑ "2012 General Election for U.S. Senator" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 11, 2019.
  2. 1 2 "Minnesota Office of the Secretary of State : Important General Election Dates". Archived from the original on July 13, 2012. Retrieved June 20, 2012.
  3. ↑ Grow, Doug (August 22, 2011). "GOP ready to go after Sen. Klobuchar but has a problem: no first-tier candidate". MinnPost.com . Archived from the original on September 19, 2011. Retrieved August 26, 2011.
  4. ↑ "Convicted felon Jack Shepard, exiled in Italy, files again to run for U.S. Senate". MinnPost. June 1, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
  5. ↑ "Fugitive U.S. Senate candidate Shepard sues Huffington Post, says he's not an arsonist". MinnPost. June 27, 2012. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
  6. 1 2 3 "Statewide Results for U.S. Senator". Minnesota Secretary of State. August 15, 2012. Archived from the original on August 24, 2012. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  7. ↑ "Bills wins GOP nod for U.S. Senate". Star Tribune.
  8. ↑ Jr, Bob Carney. "OPINION EXCHANGE | Minnesota's cookie-cutter GOP". Star Tribune.
  9. ↑ "Minn. Independence Party not in 2012 Senate race". Real Clear Politics. November 12, 2011. Retrieved November 15, 2011.
  10. ↑ "Independence Party stays out of U.S. Senate race, opposes constitutional amendments". Politics in Minnesota. June 25, 2011. Retrieved July 17, 2011.
  11. 1 2 Condon, Patrick (June 6, 2012). "Minn. 3rd party gets contested Senate primary". Star Tribune. Associated Press . Retrieved June 11, 2012.[ permanent dead link ]
  12. ↑ "Klobuchar, Bills debate unemployment, deficit". MPR News. September 18, 2012.
  13. ↑ "Federal Election Commission". Summary Reports Search. July 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 6, 2008. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  14. ↑ "Top Contributors". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012.
  15. ↑ "Top Industries". OpenSecrets. September 3, 2012. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  16. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  17. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  18. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  19. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  20. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  21. ↑ Survey USA
  22. ↑ KSTP/Survey USA Archived September 17, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  23. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  24. ↑ Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
  25. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  26. ↑ SurveyUSA/KSTP Archived October 21, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  27. ↑ St. Cloud State U. [ permanent dead link ]
  28. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  29. ↑ Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
  30. ↑ SurveyUSA
  31. ↑ KSTP/SurveyUSA Archived November 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  32. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  33. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  34. 1 2 3 4 Survey USA
  35. 1 2 3 4 5 Public Policy Polling
  36. 1 2 Survey USA
  37. 1 2 3 4 5 Public Policy Polling
  38. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  39. ↑ "2012 General Election Results". Archived from the original on April 29, 2016.
  40. ↑ "Home - Election Results".

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