2012 United States Senate election in Virginia

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2012 United States Senate election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia.svg
←  2006 November 6, 2012 2018  →
Turnout66.4% (voting eligible) [1]
  Tim Kaine, official 113th Congress photo portrait.jpg George Allen official portrait.jpg
Nominee Tim Kaine George Allen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,010,0671,785,542
Percentage52.83%46.92%
2012 United States Senate election in Virginia results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Virginia results map by CD.svg
2012 VA Senate.svg
Kaine:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Allen:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%
U.S. senator before election

Jim Webb
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Webb retired instead of running for reelection to a second term, and former Democratic governor of Virginia Tim Kaine won the open seat over Republican former senator and governor George Allen. [2] [3] Kaine was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans nominated Allen through a primary on June 12, 2012. [4] Allen had previously held this seat for one term before narrowly losing reelection to Webb in 2006.

Contents

Republican primary

In Virginia, parties have the option of whether to hold a primary or to nominate their candidate through a party convention. In November 2010, the Virginia GOP announced that it had chosen to hold a primary. [5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Tim Donner, founder of Horizons Television and LibertyNation.com [10]
  • David McCormick, attorney [11]

Declined

Debates

Three debates between Republican candidates were announced before the primary on June 12, 2012. The debates took place in Richmond, Northern Virginia, and Hampton Roads. [16]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George
Allen		Other
candidates		Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011400±4.9%52%25%23%
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]July 21–24, 2011400±4.9%58%23%19%
Public Policy Polling December 11–13, 2011350±5.2%53%25%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		George
Allen		E. W.
Jackson		Bob
Marshall		David
McCormick		Jamie
Radtke		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]July 21–24, 2011400±4.9%68%2%2%0%6%22%
Public Policy Polling December 11–13, 2011350±5.2%67%2%3%2%5%21%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012400±4.9%66%2%8%—3%20%
Washington Post April 28 – May 2, 20121,101±3.5%62%3%12%—5%18%

Endorsements

George Allen
Jamie Radtke
  • Bob Arment, Louisa County Republican Party Chairman
  • Steve Arrington, Bedford County Supervisor
  • James Fisher, Fauquier County Commonwealth’s Attorney
  • Jeff Frederick, former Virginia House of Delegates member
  • Joe Glover, Family Policy Network president
  • Jack Reid, former Virginia House of Delegates member
  • Eva Scott, Former Virginia state senator
  • John Sharp, Bedford County Supervisor
  • Richard Viguerie, conservative activist

Results

Republican primary results [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican George Allen 167,607 65.5
Republican Jamie Radtke59,00523.0
Republican Bob Marshall 17,3026.8
Republican E. W. Jackson 12,0834.7
Total votes255,997 100


Hank the Cat

On February 27, 2012, a Maine Coon cat named Hank the Cat was announced to be running a write-in campaign as a joke candidate. [23] Hank's campaign raised $16,000 for animal charities throughout the world. [24]

General election

Candidates

Only Allen and Kaine qualified for the ballot.

Debates

David Gregory moderated a debate between Kaine and Allen on September 20, 2012. Topics included partisan gridlock in Washington policy making, job creation, tax policy, and Middle East unrest. [27]

External links

Campaign

Once incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Webb decided to retire, many Democratic candidates were speculated. These included U.S. Congressmen Rick Boucher, [28] Gerry Connolly, [29] Glenn Nye, [30] Tom Perriello [31] and Bobby Scott. [32] However, they all declined and encouraged Kaine to run for the seat, believing he would be by far the most electable candidate. Courtney Lynch, former Marine Corps Officer and Fairfax business consultant [33] and Julien Modica, former CEO of the Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute, [33] eventually withdrew from the election, allowing Kaine to be unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Tim Kaine (D)$10,390,929$7,666,452$2,724,476$0
George Allen (R)$8,015,948$4,678,004$3,337,942$0
Kevin Chisholm (I)$24,165$24,162$0$0
Terrence Modglin (I)$5,655$5,389$266$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [34] [35] [36] [37]

Top contributors

[38]

Tim KaineContributionGeorge AllenContributionKevin ChisholmContribution
League of Conservation Voters $76,568 McGuireWoods LLP $76,950Valu Net$2,475
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $51,650 Altria Group $64,749Geolq Inc$1,500
University of Virginia $42,075 Alpha Natural Resources $38,000
McGuireWoods LLP$38,550 Elliott Management Corporation $35,913
Covington & Burling $36,700 Koch Industries $35,000
DLA Piper $31,750 Lorillard Tobacco Company $34,715
Bain Capital $30,000Alliance Resource Partners$33,500
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom $28,250Dominion Resources$31,800
Patton Boggs LLP $26,750 Norfolk Southern $31,550
Norfolk Southern$26,000 Boeing $23,750

Top industries

[39]

Tim KaineContributionGeorge AllenContributionKevin ChisholmContributionTerrence ModglinContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,297,792Retired$709,693 Misc Energy $250Lawyers/Law Firms$200
Retired$762,722 Real Estate $384,038
Financial Institutions $477,700Lawyers/Law Firms$348,459
Business Services$373,900Financial Institutions$299,115
Real Estate$372,829 Leadership PACs $277,000
Lobbyists $287,545Lobbyists$275,600
Education$282,475 Mining $197,206
Misc Finance$218,600 Oil & Gas $196,400
Leadership PACs$201,500 Insurance $159,065
Entertainment industry$156,279Misc Finance$157,963

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections. [40]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [41] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [42] Lean DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [43] TossupNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [44] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tim
Kaine (D)		George
Allen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010551±4.2%50%44%—6%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%47%47%—6%
Washington Post April 28 – May 4, 20111,040±3.5%46%46%—6%
Public Policy Polling May 5–8, 2011547±4.2%46%44%—10%
Quinnipiac June 21–27, 20111,434±2.6%43%42%2%11%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011500±4.4%46%43%—11%
Quinnipiac September 7–12, 20111,368±4.0%44%45%1%9%
Rasmussen Reports September 28, 2011500±4.5%46%45%3%7%
CNU/Times-Dispatch October 3–8, 20111,027±3.1%44%42%3%12%
Quinnipiac October 3–9, 20111,459±2.6%45%44%1%9%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011600±4.0%47%42%—11%
Quinnipiac December 13–19, 20111,135±2.9%42%44%1%12%
Mason-Dixon January 16–18, 2012625±3.9%46%46%—8%
Quinnipiac Archived September 13, 2012, at the Wayback Machine February 1–6, 20121,544±2.5%45%44%1%9%
CNU/Times-Dispatch February 4–13, 20121,018±3.1%40%42%2%16%
Rasmussen Reports February 21, 2012500±4.5%46%46%3%5%
Roanoke College February 13–26, 2012607±4.0%37%45%—19%
NBC News/Marist February 29 – March 2, 20122,518±2%48%39%—14%
Quinnipiac Archived March 20, 2012, at the Wayback Machine March 13–18, 20121,034±3.1%47%44%1%8%
Rasmussen Reports March 20, 2012500±4.5%44%46%3%7%
Roanoke College March 26 – April 5, 2012537±4.2%39%46%—15%
Rasmussen Reports April 23, 2012500±4.5%45%46%4%5%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680±3.8%46%45%—9%
Washington Post April 28 – May 2, 2012964±4%46%46%—8%
Marist May 17–20, 20121,076±3%49%43%—9%
Rasmussen Reports June 3, 2012500±4.5%46%44%3%6%
Quinnipiac Archived June 6, 2012, at the Wayback Machine May 30 – June 4, 20121,282±2.7%44%43%2%10%
We Ask America June 25, 20121,106±2.95%35%44%—21%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012647±3.9%46%44%—11%
Quinnipiac Archived September 25, 2012, at the Wayback Machine July 10–16, 20121,673±2.4%44%46%1%10%
Rasmussen Reports July 16–17, 2012500±4.5%46%45%5%5%
Quinnipiac Archived September 13, 2012, at the Wayback Machine July 31 – August 6, 20121,412±2.6%48%46%—6%
Rasmussen Reports August 7, 2012500±4.5%46%46%2%6%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012855±3.4%46%46%—9%
Rasmussen Reports August 23, 2012500±4.5%45%45%2%8%
Gravis Marketing September 8–9, 20122,238±2.2%43%48%—10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 9–11, 2012996±3.1%46%46%—8%
Rasmussen Reports September 13, 2012500±4.5%47%45%2%6%
Washington Post September 12–16, 2012847±4%51%43%3%4%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 20121,021±3.1%47%46%—7%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Archived September 27, 2012, at the Wayback Machine September 11–17, 20121,485±2.5%51%44%—5%
FOX NEWS Poll September 16–18, 20121,006±3%47%43%1%9%
Gravis Marketing September 17, 20122,238±2.2%43%48%—9%
Huffpost Politics Archived September 4, 2012, at the Wayback Machine September 20, 20121,000±3%46%45%—9%
Suffolk University September 24–26, 2012600±4%44%44%—12%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 30 – October 1, 2012969±3.1%49%44%1%7%
Rasmussen Reports October 4, 2012500±4.5%52%45%—3%
Public Policy Polling October 4–7, 2012725±3.6%51%44%—5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac October 4–9, 20121,288±2.7%51%44%—5%
We Ask America October 7–9, 20121,296±2.9%41%46%—13%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll October 7–9, 2012981±3.1%47%46%—7%
Rasmussen Reports October 11, 2012750±4.0%48%47%1%4%
Old Dominion University September 19 – October 17, 2012465±3.4%50%43%—6%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 2012500±4.0%49%48%3%—
Rasmussen Reports October 24, 2012750±4.0%49%48%3%—
Washington Post October 22–26, 20121,228±3.5%51%44%—5%
Roanoke College October 23–26, 2012638±4.0%42%47%—10%
Gravis Marketing Archived October 30, 2012, at the Wayback Machine October 26, 2012645±3.9%46%48%—5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac October 23–28, 20121,074±3%50%46%—4%
Reuters/Ipsos October 29–31, 2012703±4.2%47%45%1%7%
855±3.8%50%38%1%11%
WeAskAmerica October 30 – November 1, 20121,069±3%50%50%——
NBC/WSJ/Marist November 1–2, 20121,165±2.9%49%46%—4%
Public Policy Polling November 3–4, 2012975±3.1%52%46%—2%
Rasmussen Reports November 4, 2012750±4%49%47%1%4%
Hypothetical polling
Democratic primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Boucher		Tim
Kaine		Tom
Perriello		Gerry
Connolly		Glenn
Nye		Bobby
Scott		Doug
Wilder		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011400±4.9%9%53%9%3%1%9%8%9%
11%65%15%N/A9%
General election
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tim
Kaine (D)		Bob
Marshall (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%49%35%—16%
CNU/Times-Dispatch February 4–13, 20121,018±3.1%39%28%4%29%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680±3.8%49%36%—15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tim
Kaine (D)		Jamie
Radtke (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%49%33%—17%
Washington Post April 28 – May 4, 20111,040±3.5%57%31%1%9%
Public Policy Polling May 5–8, 2011547±4.2%49%33%—18%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011500±4.4%47%31%—22%
CNU/Times-Dispatch October 3–8, 20111,027±3.1%46%32%3%19%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011600±4.0%49%33%—19%
CNU/Times-Dispatch February 4–13, 20121,018±3.1%40%26%3%31%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680±3.8%50%35%—15%
with Rick Boucher
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Boucher (D)		George
Allen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.542%47%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Boucher (D)		Bob
Marshall (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%40%32%—28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Boucher (D)		Jamie
Radtke (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%40%29%—31%
with Tom Perriello
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Perriello (D)		George
Allen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010551±4.2%42%47%—11%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%41%48%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Perriello (D)		Bob
Marshall (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%39%35%—26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Periello (D)		Jamie
Radtke (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%40%32%—28%
with Bobby Scott
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bobby
Scott (D)		George
Allen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 5–8, 2011547±4.2%39%44%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bobby
Scott (D)		Jamie
Radtke (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 5–8, 2011547±4.2%39%34%—27%
with Jim Webb
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jim
Webb (D)		George
Allen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]July 31 – August 3, 2009579—43%44%—13%
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010551±4.2%49%45%—6%
Clarus Research Group December 7–9, 2010600±4.0%41%40%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jim
Webb (D)		Bill
Bolling (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010551±4.2%48%39%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jim
Webb (D)		Bob
McDonnell (R)		OtherUndecided
Clarus Research Group December 7–9, 2010600±4.0%39%42%—19%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012 [45]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tim Kaine 2,010,067 52.83% +3.24%
Republican George Allen 1,785,54246.92%-2.28%
Write-in 9,4100.25%+0.15%
Total votes3,805,019 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Kaine won 6 of 11 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans. [46]

DistrictAllenKaineRepresentative
1st 52.75%47.25% Rob Wittman
2nd 47.94%52.06% Scott Rigell
3rd 20.65%79.35% Robert C. Scott
4th 49.92%50.08% Randy Forbes
5th 52.96%47.04% Robert Hurt
6th 59.04%40.96% Bob Goodlatte
7th 55.17%44.83% Eric Cantor
8th 30.54%69.46% Jim Moran
9th 61.86%38.14% Morgan Griffith
10th 49.55%50.45% Frank Wolf
11th 36.24%63.76% Gerry Connolly

See also

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References

  1. ↑ McDonald, Michael (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
  2. ↑ "Kaine hits the road to tout economic plan", The Washington Post.
  3. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (February 9, 2011). "Webb Won't Seek Re-Election". Roll Call . Retrieved February 9, 2011.
  4. ↑ "Va. Dems will choose U.S. Senate nominee in June primary". The Pilot Online. September 20, 2011. Archived from the original on September 30, 2011. Retrieved February 9, 2012.
  5. ↑ Heiderman, Rosalind (November 20, 2010). "UPDATED: Virginia GOP chooses primary over convention for 2012 senate race". The Washington Post.
  6. 1 2 Catanese, David (January 24, 2011). "Allen e-mails supporters; Webb reacts". Politico . Retrieved January 24, 2011.
  7. ↑ Sherfinski, David (May 8, 2011) http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/virginia/2011/05/dark-horse-candidates-expand-gop-field-va-senate-race%5B%5D Retrieved May 9, 2011
  8. ↑ GOP State Delegate Bob Marshall to Enter Va. Senate Race : Roll Call Politics
  9. ↑ King, Neil (December 27, 2010). "Tea Party Organizer Jumps Into Va. Senate Race" . The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved December 27, 2010.
  10. ↑ Cain, Andrew (December 28, 2011). "Donner drops out of Virginia's U.S. Senate race". WSLS . Retrieved December 28, 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  11. ↑ Kumar, Anita (March 29, 2012). "McCormick fails to make GOP Senate primary ballot; four others submit signatures". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 30, 2012.
  12. ↑ Brown, Carrie (October 2, 2011). "Liz Cheney won't run for office in 2012". Politico . Retrieved October 2, 2011.
  13. ↑ Kumar, Anita (August 16, 2011). "Cuccinelli says he may challenge Warner for U.S. Senate in 2014". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
  14. ↑ Goodin, Emily (December 13, 2010). "Former Rep. Davis said it's unlikely he'll run for Virginia Senate in 2012". The Hill . Retrieved December 14, 2010.
  15. ↑ Corey Stewart Endorses George Allen in Virginia : Roll Call Politics
  16. ↑ Pershing, Ben (November 10, 2011). "Virginia Republicans announce plans for three 2012 Senate primary debates". The Washington Post.
  17. ↑ Bolling Backs Allen In U.S. Senate Race | Virginia Right!
  18. ↑ Pershing, Ben (April 20, 2012). "George Allen gets endorsement from tea party-backed Sen. Ron Johnson". Washington Post. Retrieved April 24, 2012.
  19. ↑ Camia, Catalina (November 11, 2011). "Va. Gov. McDonnell endorses George Allen for Senate". USA Today. Retrieved December 6, 2011.
  20. ↑ "Allen wins Rubio's backing in bid for U.S. Senate". Washington Times. June 14, 2012. Retrieved June 14, 2012.
  21. ↑ "George Allen Getting Corey Stewart's Endorsement". NBC Washington. November 1, 2011. Retrieved April 9, 2012.
  22. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on June 14, 2012. Retrieved June 13, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  23. ↑ "Meow! Hank the cat running for Senate". NBC News. Retrieved January 21, 2023.
  24. ↑ "Hank the cat third in senate race - Yahoo!7 News". November 12, 2012. Archived from the original on November 12, 2012. Retrieved January 21, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  25. ↑ Cillizza, Chris (April 5, 2011) "Tim Kaine announces for Senate in Virginia", Washington Post. Retrieved April 5, 2011.
  26. ↑ O'Brien, Michael (April 5, 2011) "Tim Kaine launches Virginia Senate bid", The Hill. Retrieved April 5, 2011
  27. ↑ "Va. Senate debate: Kaine open to minimum tax, Allen sidesteps Romney". CNN. September 20, 2012. Archived from the original on September 24, 2012. Retrieved October 5, 2012.
  28. ↑ Gruenwald, Juliana (March 2, 2011). "Boucher Appears Unlikely To Seek Senate Seat". National Journal . Archived from the original on January 25, 2012. Retrieved February 16, 2012.
  29. ↑ D'Aprile, Shane (March 4, 2011). "Rep. Connolly rules out 2012 Senate run; hopes for Kaine". The Hill . Retrieved March 4, 2011.
  30. ↑ Catanese, David; Martin, Jonathan (February 11, 2011). "Nye has "no interest," Kaine wary of run". Politico . Retrieved February 11, 2011.
  31. ↑ Pershing, Ben (February 16, 2011). "Ex-rep. Perriello might run for U.S. Senate in Va. if Kaine doesn't". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 16, 2011.
  32. ↑ Wilson, Todd Allen (September 5, 2011). "Rep. Scott says he won't run for Senate". Newport News Daily Press . Retrieved September 5, 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  33. 1 2 Hester, Wesley P. (March 25, 2012). "Allen to face host of GOP challengers; Kaine none". Richmond Times-Dispatch . Archived from the original on March 29, 2012. Retrieved March 30, 2012.
  34. ↑ Tim Kaine Campaign Finances
  35. ↑ George Allen Campaign Finances
  36. ↑ Kevin Chisholm Campaign Finances
  37. ↑ Terrence Modglin Campaign Finances
  38. ↑ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=vas1 OpenSecrets
  39. ↑ Donors by industry (opensecrets.org)
  40. ↑ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
  41. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  42. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  43. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  44. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  45. ↑ "Virginia Elections Database » Search Elections".
  46. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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