2012 United States Senate election in Virginia

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2012 United States Senate election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia.svg
  2006 November 6, 2012 2018  
Turnout66.4% (voting eligible) [1]
  Tim Kaine, official 113th Congress photo portrait.jpg George Allen official portrait.jpg
Nominee Tim Kaine George Allen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,010,0671,785,542
Percentage52.83%46.92%

2012 United States Senate election in Virginia results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Virginia results map by CD.svg
2012 VA Senate.svg
Kaine:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Allen:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%

U.S. senator before election

Jim Webb
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Webb retired instead of running for reelection to a second term, and former Democratic governor of Virginia Tim Kaine won the open seat over Republican former senator and governor George Allen. [2] [3] Kaine was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans nominated Allen through a primary on June 12, 2012. [4] Allen had previously held this seat for one term before narrowly losing reelection to Webb in 2006.

Contents

Republican primary

In Virginia, parties have the option of whether to hold a primary or to nominate their candidate through a party convention. In November 2010, the Virginia GOP announced that it had chosen to hold a primary. [5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Tim Donner, founder of Horizons Television and LibertyNation.com [10]
  • David McCormick, attorney [11]

Declined

Debates

Three debates between Republican candidates were announced before the primary on June 12, 2012. The debates took place in Richmond, Northern Virginia, and Hampton Roads. [16]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
George
Allen
Other
candidates
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [17] February 24–27, 2011400±4.9%52%25%23%
Public Policy Polling [18] July 21–24, 2011400±4.9%58%23%19%
Public Policy Polling [19] December 11–13, 2011350±5.2%53%25%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
George
Allen
E. W.
Jackson
Bob
Marshall
David
McCormick
Jamie
Radtke
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [18] July 21–24, 2011400±4.9%68%2%2%0%6%22%
Public Policy Polling [19] December 11–13, 2011350±5.2%67%2%3%2%5%21%
Public Policy Polling [20] April 26–29, 2012400±4.9%66%2%8%3%20%
Washington Post [21] April 28 – May 2, 20121,101±3.5%62%3%12%5%18%

Endorsements

George Allen
Jamie Radtke
  • Bob Arment, Louisa County Republican Party Chairman
  • Steve Arrington, Bedford County Supervisor
  • James Fisher, Fauquier County Commonwealth’s Attorney
  • Jeff Frederick, former Virginia House of Delegates member
  • Joe Glover, Family Policy Network president
  • Jack Reid, former Virginia House of Delegates member
  • Eva Scott, Former Virginia state senator
  • John Sharp, Bedford County Supervisor
  • Richard Viguerie, conservative activist

Results

Republican primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican George Allen 167,607 65.5
Republican Jamie Radtke59,00523.0
Republican Bob Marshall 17,3026.8
Republican E. W. Jackson 12,0834.7
Total votes255,997 100

Hank the Cat

On February 27, 2012, a Maine Coon cat named Hank the Cat was announced to be running a write-in campaign as a joke candidate. [28] Hank's campaign raised $16,000 for animal charities throughout the world. [29]

General election

Candidates

Only Allen and Kaine qualified for the ballot.

Debates

David Gregory moderated a debate between Kaine and Allen on September 20, 2012. Topics included partisan gridlock in Washington policy making, job creation, tax policy, and Middle East unrest. [32]

External links

Campaign

Once incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Webb decided to retire, many Democratic candidates were speculated. These included U.S. Congressmen Rick Boucher, [33] Gerry Connolly, [34] Glenn Nye, [35] Tom Perriello [36] and Bobby Scott. [37] However, they all declined and encouraged Kaine to run for the seat, believing he would be by far the most electable candidate. Courtney Lynch, former Marine Corps Officer and Fairfax business consultant [38] and Julien Modica, former CEO of the Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute, [38] eventually withdrew from the election, allowing Kaine to be unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Tim Kaine (D)$10,390,929$7,666,452$2,724,476$0
George Allen (R)$8,015,948$4,678,004$3,337,942$0
Kevin Chisholm (I)$24,165$24,162$0$0
Terrence Modglin (I)$5,655$5,389$266$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [39] [40] [41] [42]

Top contributors

[43]

Tim KaineContributionGeorge AllenContributionKevin ChisholmContribution
League of Conservation Voters $76,568 McGuireWoods LLP $76,950Valu Net$2,475
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $51,650 Altria Group $64,749Geolq Inc$1,500
University of Virginia $42,075 Alpha Natural Resources $38,000
McGuireWoods LLP$38,550 Elliott Management Corporation $35,913
Covington & Burling $36,700 Koch Industries $35,000
DLA Piper $31,750 Lorillard Tobacco Company $34,715
Bain Capital $30,000Alliance Resource Partners$33,500
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom $28,250Dominion Resources$31,800
Patton Boggs LLP $26,750 Norfolk Southern $31,550
Norfolk Southern$26,000 Boeing $23,750

Top industries

[44]

Tim KaineContributionGeorge AllenContributionKevin ChisholmContributionTerrence ModglinContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,297,792Retired$709,693 Misc Energy $250Lawyers/Law Firms$200
Retired$762,722 Real Estate $384,038
Financial Institutions $477,700Lawyers/Law Firms$348,459
Business Services$373,900Financial Institutions$299,115
Real Estate$372,829 Leadership PACs $277,000
Lobbyists $287,545Lobbyists$275,600
Education$282,475 Mining $197,206
Misc Finance$218,600 Oil & Gas $196,400
Leadership PACs$201,500 Insurance $159,065
Entertainment industry$156,279Misc Finance$157,963

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections. [45]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [46] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [47] Lean DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [48] TossupNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [49] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tim
Kaine (D)
George
Allen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [50] November 10–13, 2010551±4.2%50%44%6%
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%47%47%6%
Washington Post [52] April 28 – May 4, 20111,040±3.5%46%46%6%
Public Policy Polling [53] May 5–8, 2011547±4.2%46%44%10%
Quinnipiac [54] June 21–27, 20111,434±2.6%43%42%2%11%
Public Policy Polling [55] July 21–24, 2011500±4.4%46%43%11%
Quinnipiac [56] September 7–12, 20111,368±4.0%44%45%1%9%
Rasmussen Reports [57] September 28, 2011500±4.5%46%45%3%7%
CNU/Times-Dispatch [58] October 3–8, 20111,027±3.1%44%42%3%12%
Quinnipiac [59] October 3–9, 20111,459±2.6%45%44%1%9%
Public Policy Polling [60] December 10–12, 2011600±4.0%47%42%11%
Quinnipiac [61] December 13–19, 20111,135±2.9%42%44%1%12%
Mason-Dixon [62] January 16–18, 2012625±3.9%46%46%8%
Quinnipiac [63] February 1–6, 20121,544±2.5%45%44%1%9%
CNU/Times-Dispatch [64] February 4–13, 20121,018±3.1%40%42%2%16%
Rasmussen Reports [65] February 21, 2012500±4.5%46%46%3%5%
Roanoke College [66] February 13–26, 2012607±4.0%37%45%19%
NBC News/Marist [67] February 29 – March 2, 20122,518±2%48%39%14%
Quinnipiac [68] March 13–18, 20121,034±3.1%47%44%1%8%
Rasmussen Reports [69] March 20, 2012500±4.5%44%46%3%7%
Roanoke College [70] March 26 – April 5, 2012537±4.2%39%46%15%
Rasmussen Reports [71] April 23, 2012500±4.5%45%46%4%5%
Public Policy Polling [20] April 26–29, 2012680±3.8%46%45%9%
Washington Post [72] April 28 – May 2, 2012964±4%46%46%8%
Marist [73] May 17–20, 20121,076±3%49%43%9%
Rasmussen Reports [74] June 3, 2012500±4.5%46%44%3%6%
Quinnipiac [75] May 30 – June 4, 20121,282±2.7%44%43%2%10%
We Ask America [76] June 25, 20121,106±2.95%35%44%21%
Public Policy Polling [77] July 5–8, 2012647±3.9%46%44%11%
Quinnipiac [78] July 10–16, 20121,673±2.4%44%46%1%10%
Rasmussen Reports [74] July 16–17, 2012500±4.5%46%45%5%5%
Quinnipiac [79] July 31 – August 6, 20121,412±2.6%48%46%6%
Rasmussen Reports [80] August 7, 2012500±4.5%46%46%2%6%
Public Policy Polling [81] August 16–19, 2012855±3.4%46%46%9%
Rasmussen Reports [82] August 23, 2012500±4.5%45%45%2%8%
Gravis Marketing [83] September 8–9, 20122,238±2.2%43%48%10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll [84] September 9–11, 2012996±3.1%46%46%8%
Rasmussen Reports [85] September 13, 2012500±4.5%47%45%2%6%
Washington Post [86] September 12–16, 2012847±4%51%43%3%4%
Public Policy Polling [87] September 13–16, 20121,021±3.1%47%46%7%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac [88] September 11–17, 20121,485±2.5%51%44%5%
FOX NEWS Poll [89] September 16–18, 20121,006±3%47%43%1%9%
Gravis Marketing [90] September 17, 20122,238±2.2%43%48%9%
Huffpost Politics [91] September 20, 20121,000±3%46%45%9%
Suffolk University [92] September 24–26, 2012600±4%44%44%12%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll [93] September 30 – October 1, 2012969±3.1%49%44%1%7%
Rasmussen Reports [94] October 4, 2012500±4.5%52%45%3%
Public Policy Polling [95] October 4–7, 2012725±3.6%51%44%5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac [96] October 4–9, 20121,288±2.7%51%44%5%
We Ask America [97] October 7–9, 20121,296±2.9%41%46%13%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll [98] October 7–9, 2012981±3.1%47%46%7%
Rasmussen Reports [99] October 11, 2012750±4.0%48%47%1%4%
Old Dominion University [100] September 19 – October 17, 2012465±3.4%50%43%6%
Rasmussen Reports [101] October 18, 2012500±4.0%49%48%3%
Rasmussen Reports [102] October 24, 2012750±4.0%49%48%3%
Washington Post [103] October 22–26, 20121,228±3.5%51%44%5%
Roanoke College [104] October 23–26, 2012638±4.0%42%47%10%
Gravis Marketing [105] October 26, 2012645±3.9%46%48%5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac [106] October 23–28, 20121,074±3%50%46%4%
Reuters/Ipsos [107] October 29–31, 2012703±4.2%47%45%1%7%
855±3.8%50%38%1%11%
WeAskAmerica [108] October 30 – November 1, 20121,069±3%50%50%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [109] November 1–2, 20121,165±2.9%49%46%4%
Public Policy Polling [110] November 3–4, 2012975±3.1%52%46%2%
Rasmussen Reports [101] November 4, 2012750±4%49%47%1%4%
Hypothetical polling

Democratic primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Boucher
Tim
Kaine
Tom
Perriello
Gerry
Connolly
Glenn
Nye
Bobby
Scott
Doug
Wilder
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [111] February 24–27, 2011400±4.9%9%53%9%3%1%9%8%9%
11%65%15%N/A9%

General election

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Bob
Marshall (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%49%35%16%
CNU/Times-Dispatch [64] February 4–13, 20121,018±3.1%39%28%4%29%
Public Policy Polling [20] April 26–29, 2012680±3.8%49%36%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Jamie
Radtke (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%49%33%17%
Washington Post [52] April 28 – May 4, 20111,040±3.5%57%31%1%9%
Public Policy Polling [53] May 5–8, 2011547±4.2%49%33%18%
Public Policy Polling [55] July 21–24, 2011500±4.4%47%31%22%
CNU/Times-Dispatch [58] October 3–8, 20111,027±3.1%46%32%3%19%
Public Policy Polling [60] December 10–12, 2011600±4.0%49%33%19%
CNU/Times-Dispatch [64] February 4–13, 20121,018±3.1%40%26%3%31%
Public Policy Polling [20] April 26–29, 2012680±3.8%50%35%15%

with Rick Boucher

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Boucher (D)
George
Allen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.542%47%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Boucher (D)
Bob
Marshall (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%40%32%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Boucher (D)
Jamie
Radtke (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%40%29%31%

with Tom Perriello

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Perriello (D)
George
Allen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [50] November 10–13, 2010551±4.2%42%47%11%
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%41%48%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Perriello (D)
Bob
Marshall (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%39%35%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Periello (D)
Jamie
Radtke (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [51] February 24–27, 2011524±3.5%40%32%28%

with Bobby Scott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bobby
Scott (D)
George
Allen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [53] May 5–8, 2011547±4.2%39%44%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bobby
Scott (D)
Jamie
Radtke (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [53] May 5–8, 2011547±4.2%39%34%27%

with Jim Webb

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Webb (D)
George
Allen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [112] July 31 – August 3, 200957943%44%13%
Public Policy Polling [50] November 10–13, 2010551±4.2%49%45%6%
Clarus Research Group [113] December 7–9, 2010600±4.0%41%40%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Webb (D)
Bill
Bolling (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [50] November 10–13, 2010551±4.2%48%39%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Webb (D)
Bob
McDonnell (R)
OtherUndecided
Clarus Research Group [113] December 7–9, 2010600±4.0%39%42%19%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012 [114]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tim Kaine 2,010,067 52.83% +3.24%
Republican George Allen 1,785,54246.92%−2.28%
Write-in 9,4100.25%+0.15%
Total votes3,805,019 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Kaine won 6 of 11 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans. [115]

DistrictAllenKaineRepresentative
1st 52.75%47.25% Rob Wittman
2nd 47.94%52.06% Scott Rigell
3rd 20.65%79.35% Robert C. Scott
4th 49.92%50.08% Randy Forbes
5th 52.96%47.04% Robert Hurt
6th 59.04%40.96% Bob Goodlatte
7th 55.17%44.83% Eric Cantor
8th 30.54%69.46% Jim Moran
9th 61.86%38.14% Morgan Griffith
10th 49.55%50.45% Frank Wolf
11th 36.24%63.76% Gerry Connolly

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References

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Official campaign websites