2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
  2010 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2014  
  Maggie Hassan (NH) (cropped).png Ovide Lamontagne (cropped).jpg
Nominee Maggie Hassan Ovide Lamontagne
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote378,934294,024
Percentage54.61%42.53%

2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Hassan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Lamontagne:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     40–50%

Governor before election

John Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

The 2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, U.S. House elections, and various state and local elections.

Contents

Four-term incumbent governor John Lynch was eligible to seek a fifth term. In the fall of 2011, Lynch announced that he would retire rather than run for re-election. [1] On September 11, 2012, Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne defeated primary opponents to win their parties' nominations. [2] [3] Hassan won the election while carrying every county in the state and began the two-year term on January 3, 2013. [4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley
Maggie
Hassan
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 2012400± 4.9%24%30%46%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012477± 4.5%20%23%57%

Results

Results by county:
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Hassan--60-70%
Hassan--50-60%
Hassan--40-50%
Cilley--50-60%
Cilley--40-50% 2012 NH GOV Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
  Hassan—60–70%
  Hassan—50–60%
  Hassan—40–50%
  Cilley—50–60%
  Cilley—40–50%
Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 45,120 53.1
Democratic Jackie Cilley33,06638.9
Democratic Bill Kennedy5,9367.0
Democratic Other8501.0
Total votes84,972 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ovide
Lamontagne
Kevin
Smith
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 2012662± 3.8%49%21%30%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 2012555± 4.2%53%13%34%
Public Policy Polling January 7–8, 20121,771± 2.3%40%12%48%

Results

Results by county:
Lamontagne--80-90%
Lamontagne--60-70% 2012 NH GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Lamontagne—80–90%
  Lamontagne—60–70%
Republican primary results [25]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 73,437 67.7
Republican Kevin Smith32,39629.8
Republican Robert Tarr1,7251.6
Republican Other9880.9
Total votes108,546 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [27] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [28] Lean DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [29] TossupNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [30] Lean DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports November 4, 2012750± 4%50%45%1%4%
New England College November 3–4, 2012666± 4.1%47%45%1%7%
Public Policy Polling November 3–4, 20121,550± 2.5%51%47%2%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire November 1–4, 2012789± 3.5%54%43%3%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire October 31–November 2, 2012502± 4.4%47%42%3%8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 28–29, 20121013± 3.1%49%44%1%6%
Public Policy Polling October 26–28, 2012874± 3.3%48%44%8%
New England College October 23–25, 2012571± 4.1%45%45%1%9%
Rasmussen Reports October 23, 2012500± 4.5%46%48%1%5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire October 17–21, 2012773± 3.5%43%35%3%18%
Public Policy Polling October 17–19, 20121,036± 3.0%45%43%12%
Rasmussen Reports October 15, 2012500± 4.5%46%48%5%
Suffolk University/7NEWS Archived 2012-10-17 at the Wayback Machine October 12–14, 2012500± 4.4%41%38%4%16%
American Research Group October 9–11, 2012600± 4%40%46%3%11%
Rasmussen Reports October 9, 2012500± 4.5%48%46%5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire October 1–6, 2012419± 4.8%35%39%3%23%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire September 27–30, 2012600± 4.0%38%36%2%25%
Public Policy Polling September 24–25, 2012862± 3.3%51%44%5%
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College September 23–25, 20121012± 3.1%47%45%1%7%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Archived 2012-09-27 at the Wayback Machine September 15–19, 2012600± 4.9%48%46%6%
Rasmussen Reports September 18, 2012500± 4.5%44%48%2%7%
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 20121,055± 3.0%45%43%12%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%31%33%1%35%
Rasmussen Reports June 20, 2012500± 4.5%36%42%22%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 20121,163± 2.9%39%40%21%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire April 9–20, 2012486± 4.4%34%29%1%36%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire January 25–February 2, 2012495± 4.4%26%32%1%41%
Public Policy Polling June 30–July 5, 2011662± 3.8%35%41%24%
Hypothetical polling
With Cilley
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley (D)
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 20121,055± 3.0%42%42%16%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%31%35%1%33%
Rasmussen Reports June 20, 2012500± 4.5%39%41%20%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 20121,163± 2.9%38%38%24%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire April 9–20, 2012486± 4.4%31%30%1%38%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jackie
Cilley (D)
Kevin
Smith (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 20121,055± 3.0%39%38%23%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%31%28%1%39%
Rasmussen Reports June 20, 2012500± 4.5%39%37%24%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 20121,163± 2.9%37%32%31%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire April 9–20, 2012486± 4.4%30%23%1%47%
With Smith
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Kevin
Smith (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling August 9–12, 20121,055± 3.0%42%39%20%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%31%29%1%39%
Rasmussen Reports June 20, 2012500± 4.5%36%39%25%
Public Policy Polling May 10–13, 20121,163± 2.9%37%31%32%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire April 9–20, 2012486± 4.4%29%24%1%46%
With Kennedy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Kennedy (D)
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
OtherUndecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%29%35%1%36%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Kennedy (D)
Kevin
Smith (R)
OtherUndecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%27%29%1%44%
With Bradley
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%30%38%31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%33%39%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Marchand (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%32%38%31%
With Connolly
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly (D)
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%34%40%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly (D)
John
Stephen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%36%36%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Connolly (D)
John E.
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%36%44%20%
With Gatsas
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Ted
Gatsas (R)
OtherUndecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire January 25-February 2, 2012495± 4.4%27%29%1%43%
With Lynch
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Lynch (D)
Jeb
Bradley (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%54%35%11%
Public Policy Polling March 31-April 3, 2011769± 3.5%57%33%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Lynch (D)
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%54%36%10%
Public Policy Polling March 31-April 3, 2011769± 3.5%57%33%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Lynch (D)
John
Stephen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%55%34%11%
Public Policy Polling March 31-April 3, 2011769± 3.5%57%29%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Lynch (D)
John E.
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%51%40%8%
Public Policy Polling March 31-April 3, 2011769± 3.5%54%36%11%
With Marchand
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Marchand (D)
Ovide
Lamontagne (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%33%40%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Marchand (D)
John
Stephen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%34%36%30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Marchand (D)
John E.
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%35%44%21%
With Stephen
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
John
Stephen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%36%37%27%
With Sununu
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Maggie
Hassan (D)
John E.
Sununu (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%36%45%19%

Results

2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 378,934 54.61% +1.98%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 295,02642.52%-2.51%
Libertarian John J. Babiarz19,2512.77%+0.56%
Write-in 6660.10%-0.02%
Total votes693,877 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Hassan won both congressional districts. [32]

DistrictHassanLamontagneRepresentative
1st 52.98%44.43% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 56.38%40.66% Annie Kuster

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Official campaign websites