2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 6, 2012, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2012 presidential election and the 2012 Senate elections, were also held on this date.

Contents

Election ratings

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

District CPVI IncumbentPrevious
result
Cook
November 5, 2012 [1]
Rothenberg
November 2, 2012 [2]
Sabato
November 5, 2012 [3]
RCP
November 4, 2012 [4]
Roll Call
November 4, 2012 [5]
NYT
November 4, 2012 [6]
The Hill
November 4, 2012 [7]
Winner
Arizona 1 R+3 Paul Gosar (R) (switching seats) [lower-alpha 1] 49.7% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupTossupTossup Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Arizona 2 R+2 Ron Barber (D)52.3% DLean DTilt DLikely DLean DTossupTossupLean D Ron Barber (D)
Arizona 9 R+1 David Schweikert (R) (switching seats) [lower-alpha 2] 52.0% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)Tossup Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Arkansas 1 R+7 Rick Crawford (R)51.8% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Rick Crawford (R)
Arkansas 4 R+9 Mike Ross (D) (retiring)57.5% DLikely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Safe R (flip)Safe R (flip)Safe R (flip)Safe R (flip)Likely R (flip) Tom Cotton (R)
California 3 D+1 John Garamendi (D)58.8% DLikely DSafe DSafe DLikely DLikely DLean DLean D John Garamendi (D)
California 7 R+3 Dan Lungren (R)50.1% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip)Lean D (flip) Ami Bera (D)
California 9 D+2 Jerry McNerney (D)48.0% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupLean DLean DLean D Jerry McNerney (D)
California 10 R+5 Jeff Denham (R)64.6% RTossupTilt RLean RTossupTossupLean RTossup Jeff Denham (R)
California 16 D+2 Jim Costa (D)51.7% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DLikely D Jim Costa (D)
California 21 R+3(New seat)Likely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RLean RLean R David Valadao (R)
California 24 D+3 Lois Capps (D)57.8% DLean DTilt DLean DTossupTossupLean DTossup Lois Capps (D)
California 26 D+2 Elton Gallegly (R) (retiring)59.9% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip)Tossup Julia Brownley (D)
California 36 R+3 Mary Bono (R)51.4% RTossupTilt RLean RTossupTossupLean RTossup Raul Ruiz (D)
California 41 D+3(New seat)Lean DLean DLean DLean DLean DTossupLean D Mark Takano (D)
California 47 D+5(New seat)Likely DLikely DLikely DLikely DSafe DLean DLikely D Alan Lowenthal (D)
California 52 R+1 Brian Bilbray (R)56.6% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossup Scott Peters (D)
Colorado 3 R+4 Scott Tipton (R)50.1% RLean RLikely RLikely RLean RTossupLean RLean R Scott Tipton (R)
Colorado 6 R+1 Mike Coffman (R)65.7% RTossupTilt RLean RTossupTossupLean RTossup Mike Coffman (R)
Colorado 7 D+3 Ed Perlmutter (D)53.4% DLean DLean DLikely DLean DLikely DSafe DSafe D Ed Perlmutter (D)
Connecticut 4 D+5 Jim Himes (D)53.1% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe D Jim Himes (D)
Connecticut 5 D+2 Chris Murphy (D) (retiring) [lower-alpha 3] 54.1% DTossupTossupLean DTossupLean DTossupLean D Elizabeth Esty (D)
Florida 2 R+3 Steve Southerland (R)53.6% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely R Steve Southerland (R)
Florida 9 D+4(New seat)Likely DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DLean DLikely D Alan Grayson (D)
Florida 10 R+3 Daniel Webster (R)56.1% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RTossup Daniel Webster (R)
Florida 13 R+1 Bill Young (R)65.9% RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RLean R Bill Young (R)
Florida 16 R+5 Vern Buchanan (R)68.9% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely R Vern Buchanan (R)
Florida 18 R+1 Tom Rooney (R) (switching seats) [lower-alpha 4] 66.9% RTossupTilt RLean RTossupLean RTossupTossup Patrick Murphy (D)
Florida 24 D+5 Allen West (R) (switching seats) [lower-alpha 5] 54.4% RLikely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Tossup Lois Frankel (D)
Florida 26 R+3 David Rivera (R)52.2% RLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLikely D (flip) Joe Garcia (D)
Georgia 12 R+9 John Barrow (D)56.6% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupTossupTossupTossup John Barrow (D)
Illinois 8 D+6 Peter Roskam (R) (switching seats) [lower-alpha 6] 63.7% RLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLikely D (flip) Tammy Duckworth (D)
Illinois 10 D+8 Bob Dold (R)51.1% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupLean D (flip)Tossup Brad Schneider (D)
Illinois 11 D+6 Judy Biggert (R)63.8% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)Lean D (flip) Bill Foster (D)
Illinois 12 D+2 Jerry Costello (D)59.8% DTossupTossupLean DTossupTossupTossupTossup William Enyart (D)
Illinois 13 D+1(New seat) [lower-alpha 7] TossupTossupLean DTossupTossupLean RTossup Rodney Davis (R)
Illinois 17 D+6 Bobby Schilling (R)52.6% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip)Lean D (flip) Cheri Bustos (D)
Indiana 2 R+7 Joe Donnelly (D) (retiring) [lower-alpha 3] 48.2% DLikely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe DLean R (flip) Jackie Walorski (R)
Indiana 8 R+8 Larry Bucshon (R)57.6% RLean RLikely RLean RLikely RSafe RLean RLean R Larry Bucshon (R)
Iowa 1 D+5 Bruce Braley (D)49.5% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DSafe DSafe DLikely D Bruce Braley (D)
Iowa 2 D+4 Dave Loebsack (D)55.4% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DSafe DLean D Dave Loebsack (D)
Iowa 3 R+1 Leonard Boswell (D) [lower-alpha 8] 48.2% DLean R (flip)Tilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossup Tom Latham (R)
Iowa 4 R+4 Tom Latham (R) (switching seats) [lower-alpha 9] 65.8% RLean RTilt RLean RTossupLean RLean RLean R Steve King (R)
Kentucky 6 R+7 Ben Chandler (D)50.1% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupLean DTossup Andy Barr (R)
Maine 2 D+3 Mike Michaud (D)55.1% DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DSafe DSafe DLikely D Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland 6 D+2 Roscoe Bartlett (R)61.5% RLikely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip) John Delaney (D)
Massachusetts 6 D+7 John F. Tierney (D)56.9% DLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip) John F. Tierney (D)
Michigan 1 R+4 Dan Benishek (R)51.9% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossup Dan Benishek (R)
Michigan 3 R+5 Justin Amash (R)59.7% RLikely RSafe RLean RLikely RSafe RLean RSafe R Justin Amash (R)
Michigan 6 R+1 Fred Upton (R)62.0% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Fred Upton (R)
Michigan 7 R+3 Tim Walberg (R)50.2% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLean RSafe R Tim Walberg (R)
Michigan 11 R+4(Vacant) [lower-alpha 10] 59.3% RLean RLean RLean RTossupLikely RLean RLikely R Kerry Bentivolio (R)
Minnesota 2 R+2 John Kline (R)63.3% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RLean RLikely R John Kline (R)
Minnesota 6 R+8 Michele Bachmann (R)52.5% RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLean RSafe RLean R Michele Bachmann (R)
Minnesota 7 R+5 Collin Peterson (D)60.4% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely D Collin Peterson (D)
Minnesota 8 D+3 Chip Cravaack (R)48.2% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossup Rick Nolan (D)
Montana at-large R+7 Denny Rehberg (R) (retiring) [lower-alpha 3] 60.3% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely R Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska 2 R+6 Lee Terry (R)60.8% RLikely RSafe RSafe RLean RSafe RSafe RLikely R Lee Terry (R)
Nevada 3 Even Joe Heck (R)48.1% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RTossup Joe Heck (R)
Nevada 4 D+2(New seat)TossupTossupLean DTossupTossupLean DTossup Steven Horsford (D)
New Hampshire 1 Even Frank Guinta (R)54.0% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupLean RTossup Carol Shea-Porter (D)
New Hampshire 2 D+3 Charles Bass (R)48.3% RLean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupLean D (flip) Annie Kuster (D)
New Jersey 3 R+3 Jon Runyan (R)50.0% RLean RLikely RLikely RLean RSafe RLikely RLikely R Jon Runyan (R)
New Jersey 5 R+4 Scott Garrett (R)65.0% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Scott Garrett (R)
New Jersey 7 R+6 Leonard Lance (R)65.0% RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe R Leonard Lance (R)
New Jersey 9 D+11 Bill Pascrell (D)62.7% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely D Bill Pascrell (D)
New Mexico 1 D+5 Martin Heinrich (D) (retiring) [lower-alpha 3] 51.8% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DLikely D Martin Heinrich (D)
New York 1 Even Tim Bishop (D)50.2% DLean DTilt DLean DTossupLean DTossupTossup Tim Bishop (D)
New York 11 R+6 Michael Grimm (R)51.3% RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely RTossupLikely R Michael Grimm (R)
New York 18 R+2 Nan Hayworth (R)52.7% RTossupTilt RLean RLean RTossupLean RTossup Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
New York 19 Even Chris Gibson (R)54.9% RTossupTilt RLean RLean RTossupLean RTossup Chris Gibson (R)
New York 21 R+2 Bill Owens (D)47.5% DLean DTilt DLean DTossupTossupLean DLean D Bill Owens (D)
New York 22 R+3 Richard Hanna (R)53.1% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLean RLikely R Richard Hanna (R)
New York 23 R+3 Tom Reed (R)52.1% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLean RSafe R Tom Reed (R)
New York 24 D+3 Ann Marie Buerkle (R)50.2% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossup Dan Maffei (D)
New York 25 D+5 Louise Slaughter (D)64.9% DLikely DLikely DLean DLean DLikely DLean DLikely D Louise Slaughter (D)
New York 27 R+7 Kathy Hochul (D)47.2% DLean R (flip)Tilt R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossup Chris Collins (R)
North Carolina 7 R+11 Mike McIntyre (D)53.7% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupLean DTossup Mike McIntyre (D)
North Carolina 8 R+12 Larry Kissell (D)53.0% DLikely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)TossupLikely R (flip) Richard Hudson (R)
North Carolina 11 R+12 Heath Shuler (D) (retiring)54.3% DLikely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip) Mark Meadows (R)
North Carolina 13 R+9 Brad Miller (D) (retiring)55.5% DLikely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip) George Holding (R)
North Dakota at-large R+10 Rick Berg (R) (retiring) [lower-alpha 3] 54.7% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely R Kevin Cramer (R)
Ohio 6 R+5 Bill Johnson (R)50.2% RTossupLean RLean RTossupLean RTossupLean R Bill Johnson (R)
Ohio 7 R+5 Bob Gibbs (R)53.9% RLikely RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RLean RLikely R Bob Gibbs (R)
Ohio 9 D+15 Marcy Kaptur (D)59.4% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely D Marcy Kaptur (D)
Ohio 16 R+5 Jim Renacci (R) [lower-alpha 11] 52.1% RLean RTilt RLean D (flip)TossupLean RTossupTossup Jim Renacci (R)
Oklahoma 2 R+14 Dan Boren (D) (retiring)56.5% DLikely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip)Lean R (flip) Markwayne Mullin (R)
Oregon 5 Even Kurt Schrader (D)51.3% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DLikely D Kurt Schrader (D)
Pennsylvania 6 R+1 Jim Gerlach (R)53.1% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RLean RLikely R Jim Gerlach (R)
Pennsylvania 7 Even Pat Meehan (R)54.9% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLean RLikely R Pat Meehan (R)
Pennsylvania 8 D+1 Mike Fitzpatrick (R)53.5% RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLean RLean R Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
Pennsylvania 11 R+6 Lou Barletta (R)54.7% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Lou Barletta (R)
Pennsylvania 12 R+6 Jason Altmire (D) (lost renomination) [lower-alpha 12] 50.8% DTossupTossupLean DTossupTossupTossupTossup Keith Rothfus (R)
Pennsylvania 15 R+2 Charlie Dent (R)53.5% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Charlie Dent (R)
Pennsylvania 18 R+6 Tim Murphy (R)67.3% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Tim Murphy (R)
Rhode Island 1 D+14 David Cicilline (D)50.6% DTossupTilt DLean DLean DTossupLean DTossup David Cicilline (D)
South Dakota at-large R+9 Kristi Noem (R)48.1% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe R Kristi Noem (R)
Tennessee 4 R+13 Scott DesJarlais (R)57.1% RTossupTilt RLean RLean RLean RSafe RLean R Scott DesJarlais (R)
Texas 10 R+11 Michael McCaul (R)64.7% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Michael McCaul (R)
Texas 14 R+8 Ron Paul (R) (retiring)76.0% RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLean RSafe RLean R Randy Weber (R)
Texas 23 R+5 Quico Canseco (R)49.4% RTossupTilt RLean D (flip)TossupTossupLean RTossup Pete Gallego (D)
Texas 34 D+3(New seat)Safe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely D Filemon Vela Jr. (D)
Utah 4 R+14(New seat) [lower-alpha 13] Lean RTilt RLean RTossupLean RTossupTossup Jim Matheson (D)
Virginia 2 R+5 Scott Rigell (R)53.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RLean R Scott Rigell (R)
Virginia 5 R+5 Robert Hurt (R)50.8% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe R Robert Hurt (R)
Washington 1 D+3(Vacant) [lower-alpha 14] 57.7% DLikely DLean DLikely DLean DLikely DLean DLean D Suzan DelBene (D)
Washington 3 R+2 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)53.0% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely R Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
Washington 10 D+4(New seat)Safe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DLikely D Denny Heck (D)
West Virginia 3 R+6 Nick Rahall (D)56.0% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely D Nick Rahall (D)
Wisconsin 7 Even Sean Duffy (R)52.1% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RLean RTossup Sean Duffy (R)
Wisconsin 8 R+2 Reid Ribble (R)55.9% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RLean RLikely R Reid Ribble (R)
Overall R - 217
D - 174
44 tossups
R - 233
D - 185
18 tossups
R - 239
D - 196
R - 224
D - 178
33 tossups
R - 227
D -175
33 tossups
R - 227
D - 183
25 tossups
Republican retain
35 tossups
R - 234
D - 201

Notes

  1. Contested the new 4th and won.
  2. Contested the 6th and won.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Retired to run for senate
  4. Contested the new 17th and won. Allen West (R) ran in this seat and lost.
  5. Contested the 18th and lost.
  6. Contested the new 6th and won. Joe Walsh (R) ran in this seat and lost.
  7. Tim Johnson (R) ran in this seat but retired after the primaries.
  8. Fellow incumbent Tom Latham (R) moved from the 4th to run in this seat.
  9. Latham moved to the 3rd to run there. Steve King moved from the old 5th to run in this seat.
  10. Thad McCotter resigned in July 2012, David Curson (D) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of McCotter's term.
  11. Fellow incumbent Betty Sutton (D) moved from the 18th to run in this seat.
  12. Fellow incumbent Mark Critz (D) moved from the 12th to run in this seat, but lost.
  13. Jim Matheson (D) moved from the 2nd district to run in this new seat.
  14. Jay Inslee resigned in March 2012, Suzan DelBene (D) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of Inslee's term.

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The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 8, 2016, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2016 presidential election and the 2016 Senate elections, were also held on this date.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings</span> Predictions for select races in the 2014 U.S. House elections

The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 4, 2014, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the second term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 114th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2010 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 2011 as a result of the 2010 elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States gubernatorial elections</span>

United States gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on November 5, 2024, in 11 states and two territories. The previous gubernatorial elections for this group of states took place in 2020, except in New Hampshire and Vermont where governors only serve two-year terms and elected their governors in 2022. In addition to state gubernatorial elections, the territories of American Samoa and Puerto Rico will also hold elections for their governors.

References

  1. "2012 House Race Ratings for November 5, 2012". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. November 5, 2012. Archived from the original on October 28, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  2. "House Ratings". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Rothenberg Political Report. November 2, 2012. Archived from the original on November 11, 2012. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  3. Larry J. Sabato; Kyle Kondik; Geoffrey Skelley (November 5, 2012). "Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
  4. , as of November 4,2012[update]
  5. "Race Ratings Chart for 2012 House Elections". rollcall.com/. Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2012. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  6. House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4,2012
  7. "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.