2012 United States presidential election in Indiana

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2012 United States presidential election in Indiana
Flag of Indiana.svg
←  2008 November 6, 2012 2016  →
Turnout58.46% [1]
  Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 6 cropped.jpg President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Illinois
Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,420,5431,152,887
Percentage54.13%43.93%
Indiana Presidential Election Results 2012.svg
IN-12-pres-districts el.svg
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Indiana voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. Romney and Ryan carried Indiana with 54.13% of the popular vote to the Democratic ticket's 43.93%, thus winning the state's 11 electoral votes. [2]

Contents

Indiana and North Carolina were the only two states Obama won in 2008 that flipped to the Republican column in 2012. Although Indiana normally leans Republican, in 2008 Obama had been the first Democrat to win Indiana since 1964, albeit by a narrow 1.03% margin. Unlike North Carolina, Indiana was not seriously contested again by the Obama campaign in 2012; consequently, Romney was able to carry it by a 10.2% margin and win 6 counties Obama won in 2008.

Obama carried Vigo County, home to Terre Haute, and at the time a noted bellwether; before 2020, it had voted for the winner of every presidential election all but twice since 1892. After 2012, political realignment and shift of white working-class voters to Trump, exodus of young people to cities and the rightward turn of exurban areas accelerated by the Trump era have made Vigo County generally uncompetitive to the present day. [3] As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time that Delaware, LaPorte, Perry, Porter, and Vigo counties have voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. Obama won nine counties compared to 83 for Romney, who won most rural areas of the state. Romney also performed well in the Indianapolis suburbs; Allen County, home of Fort Wayne; and Vanderburgh County, home of Evansville. As expected, Obama did better in urban, densely populated areas. Obama trounced Romney in Marion County, home of Indianapolis, as well as Lake County, home of Gary and East Chicago. Obama also for the most part did well in counties that contained major colleges, such as Monroe County, home of Indiana University Bloomington; St. Joseph County, home of the University of Notre Dame in South Bend; and Porter County, home of Valparaiso University.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Incumbent President Barack Obama ran unopposed, securing 221,466 votes. [4]

Republican primary

The Republican primary took place on May 8, 2012. [5] [6]

Indiana Republican primary, 2012 [7]
CandidateVotesPercentageProjected delegate count
AP CNN
FOX
America Symbol.svg Mitt Romney 410,63564.61%2827
Ron Paul 98,48715.50%
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)85,33213.43%
Newt Gingrich (withdrawn)41,1356.47%
Unprojected delegates:181946
Total:635,589100.00%464646

General election

Campaign

Incumbent Obama did not visit Indiana, although First Lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton stumped in the state. Meanwhile, Romney visited Indiana several times. [8]

Polling

Republican Nominee Mitt Romney won every pre-election poll conducted in the state by at least 5%, and often by double digits. The average of the final three polls had Romney leading Obama 51% to 43%. [9]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post [10] Safe R (flip)November 6, 2012
CNN [11] Safe R (flip)November 6, 2012
New York Times [12] Lean R (flip)November 6, 2012
Washington Post [13] Safe R (flip)November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics [14] Lean R (flip)November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15] Solid R (flip)November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight [16] Solid R (flip)November 6, 2012

Results

2012 United States presidential election in Indiana [17]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican Willard M. Romney Paul D. Ryan 1,420,54354.13%11
Democratic Barack H. Obama (incumbent) Joseph R. Biden Jr. (incumbent)1,152,88743.93%0
Libertarian Gary E. Johnson Jim Gray 50,1111.91%0
Green (write-in) Jill Stein (write-in) Cheri Honkala 6250.02%0
Constitution (write-in) Virgil Goode (write-in)Jim Clymer2900.01%0
America's Party (write-in) Thomas Hoefling (write-in)Jonathan D. Ellis350.00%0
Socialist (write-in) Stewart Alexander (write-in) Alex Mendoza 170.00%0
Write-insWrite-ins100.00%0
Unaffiliated (write-in)Jill Ann Reed (write-in)Tom Cary80.00%0
Independent (write-in) Randall Terry (write-in)Missy Smith80.00%0
Totals2,624,534100.00%11

Following Romney's win in Indiana, The Indianapolis Star said that "Voters painted Indiana bright red on Tuesday- with a splash or so of blue" and that "voters also proved that while this state is conservative, it doesn't like to stray too far from the middle". [18]

By county

CountyMitt Romney
Republican		Barack Obama
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 8,93768.58%3,80629.21%2892.21%5,13139.37%13,032
Allen 84,61357.46%60,03640.77%2,5971.77%24,57716.69%147,246
Bartholomew 18,08361.52%10,62536.15%6842.33%7,45825.37%29,392
Benton 2,32965.09%1,15932.39%902.52%1,17032.70%3,578
Blackford 2,71156.95%1,92740.48%1222.57%78416.47%4,760
Boone 18,80867.70%8,32829.98%6462.32%10,48037.72%27,782
Brown 4,33256.75%3,06040.08%2423.17%1,27216.67%7,634
Carroll 4,99964.01%2,63533.74%1762.25%2,36430.27%7,810
Cass 8,44359.62%5,37137.93%3472.45%3,07221.69%14,161
Clark 25,45053.83%20,80744.01%1,0212.16%4,6439.82%47,278
Clay 7,09665.67%3,46032.02%2492.31%3,63633.65%10,805
Clinton 6,33864.13%3,30833.47%2372.40%3,03030.66%9,883
Crawford 2,42152.75%2,04144.47%1282.78%3808.28%4,590
Daviess 7,63874.42%2,43723.74%1891.84%5,20150.68%10,264
Dearborn 15,39468.86%6,52829.20%4341.94%8,86639.66%22,356
Decatur 7,11968.94%2,94128.48%2672.58%4,17840.46%10,327
DeKalb 10,58764.71%5,41933.12%3542.17%5,16831.59%16,360
Delaware 21,25147.15%22,65450.26%1,1692.59%-1,403-3.11%45,074
Dubois 11,65462.75%6,52235.12%3952.13%5,13227.63%18,571
Elkhart 42,37862.29%24,39935.87%1,2521.84%17,97926.42%68,029
Fayette 5,04557.09%3,55540.23%2372.68%1,49016.86%8,837
Floyd 19,87856.17%14,81241.85%7021.98%5,06614.32%35,392
Fountain 4,66465.59%2,23731.46%2102.95%2,42734.13%7,111
Franklin 7,42470.17%2,90927.50%2472.33%4,51542.67%10,580
Fulton 5,31765.43%2,62132.25%1882.32%2,69633.18%8,126
Gibson 9,48764.45%4,92833.48%3062.07%4,55930.97%14,721
Grant 15,15159.82%9,58937.86%5892.32%5,56221.96%25,329
Greene 8,45764.36%4,35033.10%3342.21%4,10731.26%13,141
Hamilton 90,74766.20%43,79631.95%2,5461.85%46,95134.25%137,089
Hancock 22,79669.41%9,31928.37%7282.22%13,47741.04%32,843
Harrison 10,64060.21%6,60737.39%4242.40%4,03322.82%17,671
Hendricks 44,31266.37%21,11231.62%1,3372.01%23,20034.75%66,761
Henry 10,83857.02%7,61340.05%5562.93%3,22516.97%19,007
Howard 20,32756.01%15,13541.70%8292.29%5,19214.31%36,291
Huntington 10,86268.76%4,59629.09%3392.15%6,26639.67%15,797
Jackson 10,41962.34%5,83834.93%4552.73%4,58127.41%16,712
Jasper 7,95561.57%4,67236.16%2932.27%3,28325.41%12,920
Jay 4,64558.79%3,06338.77%1932.44%1,58220.02%7,901
Jefferson 7,09653.94%5,72843.54%3322.52%1,36810.40%13,156
Jennings 6,12059.71%3,82137.28%3093.01%2,29922.43%10,250
Johnson 39,51368.02%17,26029.71%1,3192.27%22,25338.31%58,092
Knox 9,61263.47%5,22834.52%3052.01%4,38428.95%15,145
Kosciusko 22,55874.84%6,86222.77%7202.39%15,69652.07%30,140
LaGrange 6,23166.88%2,89831.11%1872.01%3,33335.77%9,316
Lake 68,43133.85%130,89764.75%2,8191.40%-62,466-30.90%202,147
LaPorte 18,61542.62%24,10755.19%9592.19%-5,492-12.57%43,681
Lawrence 11,62265.04%5,77932.34%4692.62%5,84332.70%17,870
Madison 26,76950.98%24,40746.48%1,3342.54%2,3624.50%52,510
Marion 136,50937.92%216,33660.10%7,1271.98%-79,827-22.18%359,972
Marshall 11,26063.25%6,13734.48%4042.27%5,12328.77%17,801
Martin 3,26268.78%1,35128.48%1302.74%1,91140.30%4,743
Miami 8,17463.79%4,22232.95%4173.26%3,95230.84%12,813
Monroe 22,48139.29%33,43658.43%1,3062.28%-10,955-19.14%57,223
Montgomery 9,82468.03%4,27129.58%3452.39%5,55338.45%14,440
Morgan 19,59169.17%7,96928.13%7652.70%11,62241.04%28,325
Newton 3,29158.02%2,21239.00%1692.98%1,07919.02%5,672
Noble 10,68065.63%5,22932.13%3642.24%5,45133.50%16,273
Ohio 1,75962.40%99435.26%662.34%76527.14%2,819
Orange 4,61759.38%2,93937.80%2202.82%1,67821.58%7,776
Owen 5,06262.39%2,82334.80%2282.81%2,23927.59%8,113
Parke 4,23464.85%2,11032.32%1852.83%2,12432.53%6,529
Perry 3,40343.21%4,31654.81%1561.98%-913-11.60%7,875
Pike 3,62761.20%2,12535.86%1742.94%1,50225.34%5,926
Porter 34,40646.94%37,25250.82%1,6452.24%-2,846-3.88%73,303
Posey 7,43060.77%4,53337.08%2632.15%2,89723.69%12,226
Pulaski 3,36662.34%1,89935.17%1342.49%1,46727.17%5,399
Putnam 9,00565.12%4,50732.59%3172.29%4,49832.53%13,829
Randolph 6,21860.95%3,76936.94%2152.11%2,44924.01%10,202
Ripley 7,48467.94%3,24129.42%2902.64%4,24338.52%11,015
Rush 4,63365.94%2,22131.61%1722.45%2,41234.33%7,026
Scott 4,53952.05%3,99845.85%1832.10%5416.20%8,720
Shelby 10,97865.50%5,35931.97%4232.53%5,61933.53%16,760
Spencer 5,51556.60%4,02641.32%2032.08%1,48915.28%9,744
St. Joseph 52,57847.36%56,46050.86%1,9711.78%-3,882-3.50%111,009
Starke 4,73854.03%3,80943.44%2222.53%92910.59%8,769
Steuben 8,54762.41%4,85335.44%2952.15%3,69426.97%13,695
Sullivan 4,90259.13%3,19138.49%1972.38%1,71120.64%8,290
Switzerland 1,87255.11%1,43742.30%882.59%43512.81%3,397
Tippecanoe 28,75750.40%26,71146.81%1,5952.79%2,0463.59%57,063
Tipton 4,77364.74%2,43232.99%1682.27%2,34131.75%7,373
Union 2,02265.14%1,01832.80%642.06%1,00432.34%3,104
Vanderburgh 39,38954.26%31,72543.71%1,4742.03%7,66410.55%72,588
Vermillion 3,42651.89%2,97945.12%1982.99%4476.77%6,603
Vigo 19,36948.42%19,71249.27%9242.31%-343-0.85%40,005
Wabash 8,64467.03%3,97330.81%2782.16%4,67136.22%12,895
Warren 2,37762.55%1,32434.84%992.61%1,05327.71%3,800
Warrick 17,68062.19%10,18135.81%5662.00%7,49926.38%28,427
Washington 6,53360.85%3,90936.41%2952.74%2,62424.44%10,737
Wayne 14,32156.21%10,59141.57%5652.22%3,73014.64%25,477
Wells 9,25671.46%3,43626.53%2602.01%5,82044.93%12,952
White 5,97060.09%3,63736.61%3283.30%2,33323.48%9,935
Whitley 10,25868.24%4,42029.40%3542.36%5,83838.84%15,032
Totals1,422,87254.04%1,154,27543.84%55,9962.13%268,59710.20%2,633,143
County flips: Democratic Hold Republican Hold Gain from Democratic Indiana County Flips 2012-fixed.svg
County flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Romney won seven of nine congressional districts. [19]

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
1st 37.39%61.19% Pete Visclosky
2nd 56.1%42.14% Jackie Walorski
3rd 62.54%35.7% Marlin Stutzman
4th 60.88%36.87% Todd Rokita
5th 57.5%40.7% Susan Brooks
6th 60.43%37.28% Luke Messer
7th 35.35%62.9% André Carson
8th 58.37%39.61% Larry Bucshon
9th 57.17%40.7% Todd Young

See also

Sources

References

  1. ↑ "General Election Turnout and Registration" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State.
  2. ↑ "2012 Presidential Election - Indiana". Politico. Retrieved November 22, 2012.
  3. ↑ GALOFARO, CLAIRE. "The counties that predict presidential election winners didn't this year. Just look at Terre Haute, Indiana". chicagotribune.com. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
  4. ↑ "Indiana Voters". indianavoters.in.gov. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN . Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  6. ↑ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission . Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  7. ↑ Secretary of State election results. June 5, 2012. Retrieved June 27, 2012.
  8. ↑ "Hoosiers go for Romney; Obama fails to repeat his narrow win here in '08". The Indianapolis Star . Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  9. ↑ "2012 Presidential Election Polls - IN". uselectionatlas.org.
  10. ↑ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost . Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  11. ↑ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN . Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  12. ↑ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times . Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  13. ↑ "2012 Presidential Election Results" . The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  14. ↑ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  15. ↑ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  16. ↑ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  17. ↑ "2012 Presidential General Election Results". uselectionatlas.org.
  18. ↑ "Analysis: Hoosiers back Republicans but want them in the middle". The Indianapolis Star . Retrieved November 8, 2012.
  19. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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