2024 United States Senate election in Indiana

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Indiana
Flag of Indiana.svg
  2018 November 5, 2024 2030  
  Jim Banks Official Senate Portrait (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Jim Banks Valerie McCray
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,659,4161,097,061
Percentage58.64%38.77%

2024 United States Senate election in Indiana results map by county.svg
IN-2022-sen-districts.svg
Banks:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
McCray:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Mike Braun
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Jim Banks
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Indiana. Republican congressman Jim Banks was elected to his first term, defeating Democratic psychologist Valerie McCray in the general election. [1] Banks succeeded Republican incumbent Mike Braun, who opted instead to run for governor. [2] This was the first election for this seat in which there was no incumbent running since 1958. [a]

Contents

On election day, Republican Banks defeated Democrat Valerie McCray by a near 20-percentage-point margin, winning all but three counties. Indiana has not elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since Joe Donnelly was elected in 2012.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Banks (R)

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

Political Parties

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 17, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jim Banks (R)$4,731,928$3,188,805$2,878,607
Source: Federal Election Commission [39]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Banks
Mitch
Daniels
Trey
Hollingsworth
Todd
Rokita
Victoria
Spartz
OtherUndecided
Bellwether Research [40] December 11–17, 20221,000 (LV)14%11%16%12%9%39%
10%32%9%7%7%6%29%
Response:AI [41] [A] December 9–16, 2022503 (RV)±4.3%14%35%6%14%16% [c] 17%

Results

Republican primary results [42]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Banks 475,729 100.00%
Total votes475,729 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Valerie McCray, psychologist and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 [43]

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Valerie McCray

Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Marc Carmichael (D)$115,161 [d] $98,370$16,125
Valerie McCray (D)$61,506 [e] $45,953$15,684
Keith Potts (D)$99,485 [f] $98,302$1,183
Source: Federal Election Commission [39]

Results

Primary results by county:
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McCray
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Carmichael
50-60%
Tie
50% 2024 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Indiana results map by county.svg
Primary results by county:
  McCray
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Carmichael
  •   50–60%
  Tie
  •   50%
Democratic primary results [42]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Valerie McCray 121,734 68.01%
Democratic Marc Carmichael 57,25631.99%
Total votes178,990 100.00%

Libertarian convention

Nominee

Write-in candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [51] Solid RNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [52] Solid RNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] Safe RNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [54] Safe RJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily [55] Safe RMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [56] Solid RNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [57] Solid RAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [58] Safe ROctober 23, 2024
538 [59] Solid ROctober 23, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jim Banks (R)$5,553,816$3,713,830$3,175,470
Valerie McCray (D)$61,507 [g] $45,953$15,685
Source: Federal Election Commission [39]

Debate

2024 United States Senate general election in Indiana debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
BanksMcCrayHorning
1October 29, 2024Indiana Debate CommissionLaura Merrifield Wilson [60] APP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Banks (R)
Valerie
McCray (D)
OtherUndecided
ActiVote [61] October 5–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%57%43%
ActiVote [62] September 3 – October 5, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%
ARW Strategies [63] [B] September 23–25, 2024600 (LV)49%35%16%
Emerson College [64] [C] September 12–13, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%33%5% [h] 14%
Emerson College [65] October 1–4, 2023462 (RV)± 4.4%31%22%8% [i] 39%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Indiana [66] [67]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Jim Banks 1,659,416 58.64% +7.91%
Democratic Valerie McCray1,097,06138.77%−6.07%
Libertarian Andrew Horning73,2332.59%−1.83%
Write-in 1870.00%
Total votes2,829,897 100.0%
Republican hold

By county

Source [67]

County Jim Banks
Republican
Valerie McCray
Democratic
Andrew Horning
Libertarian
Write-inMarginTotal
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Adams 9,45376.38%2,62321.19%3002.42%00.00%6,85055.35%12,376
Allen 89,83156.91%64,27540.72%3,7022.35%290.02%17,29212.02%157,837
Bartholomew 20,57363.77%10,79033.45%8932.77%30.01%9,78330.33%32,259
Benton 2,88773.55%92223.49%1162.96%00.00%96524.59%3,925
Blackford 3,55473.72%1,10923.00%1573.26%10.02%2,44550.72%4,821
Boone 23,03759.39%14,59637.63%1,1542.98%10.00%8,44121.76%38,788
Brown 5,39263.86%2,69531.92%3574.23%00.00%2,69731.94%8,444
Carroll 6,89875.21%2,03422.18%2402.62%00.00%4,86453.03%9,172
Cass 10,03171.14%3,66125.96%4082.89%00.00%6,37045.18%14,100
Clark 32,97857.66%22,31739.02%1,8893.30%50.01%10,66118.64%57,189
Clay 8,75276.42%2,37520.74%3262.85%00.00%6,37755.68%11,453
Clinton 8,62073.16%2,80323.79%3583.04%20.02%5,81749.37%11,783
Crawford 3,31169.71%1,31227.62%1272.67%00.00%1,99942.08%4,750
Daviess 8,63280.64%1,82917.09%2442.28%00.00%6,80363.55%10,705
Dearborn 20,65578.20%5,20819.72%5512.09%00.00%15,44758.48%26,414
Decatur 8,97178.39%2,09818.33%3753.28%00.00%6,87360.06%11,444
DeKalb 13,53073.09%4,42923.93%5512.98%20.01%9,10149.16%18,512
Delaware 24,80156.82%17,59040.30%1,2522.87%20.00%7,21116.52%43,645
Dubois 13,54969.21%5,43627.77%5903.01%20.01%8,11341.44%19,577
Elkhart 46,29866.42%22,10631.71%1,3001.86%40.01%24,19234.70%69,708
Fayette 7,06676.22%1,95521.09%2502.70%00.00%5,11155.13%9,271
Floyd 23,05356.62%16,55440.66%1,1012.70%40.01%6,49915.96%40,712
Fountain 6,22478.60%1,48118.70%2142.70%00.00%4,74359.89%7,919
Franklin 9,04380.49%1,93217.20%2602.31%00.00%7,11163.29%11,235
Fulton 6,58074.90%1,99022.65%2132.42%20.02%4,59052.25%8,785
Gibson 11,42473.60%3,69223.79%4062.62%00.00%7,73249.81%15,522
Grant 16,24470.73%6,16026.82%5622.45%10.00%10,08443.91%22,967
Greene 10,14674.23%3,13122.91%3912.86%00.00%7,01551.32%13,668
Hamilton 99,85554.91%77,76142.76%4,2212.32%90.00%22,09412.15%181,846
Hancock 28,66765.66%13,06729.93%1,9264.41%00.00%15,60035.73%43,660
Harrison 14,25671.08%5,23426.10%5662.82%00.00%9,02244.98%20,056
Hendricks 48,71861.01%28,79036.05%2,3432.93%00.00%19,92824.96%79,851
Henry 14,81872.48%5,02324.57%6022.94%00.00%9,79547.91%20,443
Howard 25,36966.02%11,81030.73%1,2473.25%20.01%13,55935.28%38,428
Huntington 12,57973.47%4,01923.47%5233.05%00.00%8,56050.00%17,121
Jackson 13,94675.96%3,95421.54%4602.51%00.00%9,99254.42%18,360
Jasper 11,20475.48%3,28122.10%3582.41%00.00%7,92353.38%14,843
Jay 5,97676.81%1,59420.49%2092.69%10.01%4,38256.32%7,780
Jefferson 8,94366.21%4,19731.07%3672.72%00.00%4,74635.14%13,507
Jennings 8,81676.34%2,36420.47%3683.19%00.00%6,45255.87%11,548
Johnson 45,50266.57%20,74330.35%2,0983.07%40.01%24,75936.23%68,347
Knox 10,16772.35%3,50124.91%3842.73%00.00%6,66647.44%14,052
Kosciusko 25,61076.58%6,92020.69%9102.72%10.00%18,69055.89%33,441
LaGrange 7,80678.32%1,95619.62%2042.05%10.01%5,85058.69%9,967
Lake 88,47444.74%105,64853.43%3,6151.83%80.00%-17,174-8.68%197,745
LaPorte 24,75255.34%18,82842.10%1,1372.54%90.02%5,92413.25%44,726
Lawrence 14,81173.97%4,58622.90%6253.12%00.00%10,22551.07%20,022
Madison 34,39362.19%19,19034.70%1,7163.10%30.01%15,20327.49%55,302
Marion 126,64335.89%217,81961.72%8,4252.39%220.01%-91,176-25.84%352,909
Marshall 13,49572.04%4,83825.83%4002.14%00.00%8,65746.21%18,733
Martin 3,63375.39%1,00220.79%1833.80%10.02%2,63154.60%4,819
Miami 9,98375.51%2,85021.56%3872.93%00.00%7,13353.96%13,220
Monroe 21,18736.11%35,96061.29%1,5122.58%90.02%-14,773-25.18%58,668
Montgomery 12,10173.85%3,80623.23%4782.92%10.01%8,29550.62%16,386
Morgan 25,30675.30%7,10321.14%1,1963.56%00.00%18,20354.17%33,605
Newton 4,86075.55%1,35221.02%2213.44%00.00%3,50854.53%6,433
Noble 13,71075.26%4,03522.15%4632.54%80.04%9,67553.11%18,216
Ohio 2,25475.13%67022.33%762.53%00.00%1,58452.80%3,000
Orange 5,94773.83%1,89723.55%2112.62%00.00%4,05050.28%8,055
Owen 6,74471.75%2,15322.91%5025.34%00.00%4,59148.85%9,399
Parke 4,76876.72%1,27420.50%1732.78%00.00%3,49456.22%6,215
Perry 4,96161.61%2,93636.46%1551.92%00.00%2,02525.15%8,052
Pike 4,16675.17%1,22622.12%1502.71%00.00%2,94053.05%5,542
Porter 46,01154.30%36,93143.58%1,7862.11%100.01%9,08010.72%84,738
Posey 9,14771.46%3,36626.29%2882.25%00.00%5,78145.16%12,801
Pulaski 4,03175.32%1,15821.64%1633.05%00.00%2,87353.68%5,352
Putnam 11,91874.39%3,57222.30%5303.31%00.00%8,34652.10%16,020
Randolph 7,53375.61%2,17021.78%2602.61%00.00%5,36353.83%9,963
Ripley 11,28679.24%2,64018.54%3152.21%10.01%8,64660.71%14,242
Rush 5,53275.90%1,49820.55%2583.54%10.01%4,03455.34%7,289
St. Joseph 54,59049.60%53,25348.38%2,2102.01%130.01%1,3371.21%110,066
Scott 6,04269.64%2,39327.58%2412.77%00.00%3,64942.06%8,676
Shelby 13,49572.14%4,46523.87%7473.99%00.00%9,03048.27%18,707
Spencer 7,05170.76%2,70027.10%2132.14%00.00%4,35143.67%9,964
Starke 7,03573.36%2,27923.76%2762.88%00.00%4,75649.59%9,590
Steuben 11,34572.10%4,00425.45%3852.45%10.01%7,34146.65%15,735
Sullivan 5,89872.62%2,03125.01%1932.38%00.00%3,86747.61%8,122
Switzerland 3,15676.18%91422.06%731.76%00.00%2,24254.12%4,143
Tippecanoe 31,69949.79%30,09147.26%1,8682.93%110.02%1,6082.53%63,669
Tipton 5,61774.21%1,67522.13%2773.66%00.00%3,94252.08%7,569
Union 2,60676.04%69420.25%1273.71%00.00%1,91255.79%3,427
Vanderburgh 41,08456.29%30,40341.65%1,5032.06%20.00%10,68114.63%72,992
Vermillion 4,64568.65%1,93028.52%1902.81%10.01%2,71540.13%6,766
Vigo 22,89856.99%16,28240.53%9952.48%20.00%6,61616.47%40,177
Wabash 10,10275.28%2,97322.15%3442.56%10.01%7,12953.12%13,420
Warren 3,36277.54%87920.27%952.19%00.00%2,48357.26%4,336
Warrick 20,31465.07%10,22732.76%6742.16%40.01%10,08732.31%31,219
Washington 9,21974.32%2,78322.44%4013.23%10.01%6,43651.89%12,404
Wayne 17,08364.81%8,37631.78%8963.40%20.01%8,70733.03%26,357
Wells 10,13578.66%2,37918.46%3702.87%00.00%7,75660.20%12,884
White 7,90072.75%2,65024.40%3092.85%00.00%5,25048.35%10,859
Whitley 12,72974.30%3,85522.50%5483.20%00.00%8,87451.80%17,132
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Banks won seven of nine congressional districts. [68]

DistrictBanksMcCrayRepresentative
1st 47.9%50.1% Frank J. Mrvan
2nd 63.0%34.8% Rudy Yakym
3rd 65.7%31.8% Jim Banks (118th Congress)
Marlin Stutzman (119th Congress)
4th 64.3%32.7% Jim Baird
5th 58.9%38.4% Victoria Spartz
6th 65.3%31.5% Greg Pence (118th Congress)
Jefferson Shreve (119th Congress)
7th 29.2%68.6% André Carson
8th 66.2%31.2% Larry Bucshon (118th Congress)
Mark Messmer (119th Congress)
9th 63.1%34.1% Erin Houchin

Notes

  1. Richard Lugar, the incumbent Senator at the time, ran for re-election to a seventh term in 2012, but lost in the Republican primary to Richard Mourdock.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Jennifer Ruth-Green with 4%; Curtis Hill with 2%; "Someone else" with 10%
  4. $1,000 of this total was self-funded by Carmichael
  5. $1,407 of this total was self-funded by McCray
  6. $20,345 of this total was self-funded by Potts
  7. $4,407 of this total was self-funded by McCray
  8. Horning (L) with 5%
  9. "Someone else" at 8%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Spartz's campaign.
  2. Poll sponsored by IndyPolitics.org
  3. Poll sponsored by The Hill

References

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