The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley was re-elected to a second term, defeating his Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1]
Hawley was the favorite in the polls throughout the cycle due to the state's Republican lean, though some polls showed a close race.[2][3] Kunce, who had previously run in 2022, losing narrowly in the Democratic primaries to Trudy Busch Valentine, was seen as a strong candidate who outpaced Hawley in fundraising for much of the race and outspent him in advertising.[4][5][6]
Hawley ultimately won re-election with a comfortable 55.6% of the vote to Kunce's 41.8%, improving his 2018 margin by around 8 points. Despite his loss, Kunce outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by 2 points, while Hawley underperformed Donald Trump by nearly 3 points, making the race slightly closer than the concurrent presidential election.[7][8]
Background
From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to IllinoisGovernorAdlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[9]
Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1960, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.[9]
In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[10]
The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[11]
Most pollsters categorized this race as safe for the Republican Party.[12][13][14][15]
The two candidates participated in two debates—one alongside third-party opponents and a second one-on-one televised event. Both debates were marked by frequent attacks. Hawley criticized Kunce over an accidental shooting involving a reporter at a campaign event and his refusal to endorse a presidential candidate. Kunce countered by attacking Hawley's involvement in objecting to the certification of the 2020 election and his opposition to abortion rights. 2024 Missouri Amendment 3, which was concurrently on the ballot, passed and legalized abortion in Missouri.
Despite the contentious exchanges, the candidates found some common ground on border security and opposition to deploying U.S. troops to the Middle East.[68][69][70]
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