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The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley was first elected in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote defeating Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill and is running for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024. [1]
From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.[ citation needed ]
Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1964, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996, despite there being three subsequent elections won by Democrats.[ citation needed ]
In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.[ citation needed ]
The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.[ citation needed ]
Most pollsters categorize this race as a secure one for the Republican Party. [2] [3] [4] [5]
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Josh Hawley (R) | $18,602,664 | $14,166,561 | $4,911,618 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [11] | |||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley (incumbent) | |||
| Total votes | ||||
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| December Harmon (D) | $14,383 [lower-alpha 6] | $10,620 | $3,763 |
| Lucas Kunce (D) | $5,423,747 | $3,204,836 | $2,226,193 |
| Karla May (D) | $27,922 | $12,165 | $15,757 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [11] | |||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mita Biswas | |||
| Democratic | December Harmon | |||
| Democratic | Lucas Kunce | |||
| Democratic | Karla May | |||
| Total votes | ||||
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jared Young (I) | $302,315 [lower-alpha 7] | $188,815 | $113,499 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [11] | |||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [2] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections [3] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [4] | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily [5] | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis [56] | Solid R | November 21, 2023 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 8] | Margin of error | Josh Hawley (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group [upper-alpha 1] | March 6-8, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
| Emerson College | January 23-28, 2024 | 1,830 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 43% | 30% | 7% | 20% |
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 42% | 4% | 8% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 32% | 5% | 17% |
| GQR Research (D) [upper-alpha 2] | August 16–19, 2023 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.34% | 44% | 43% | – | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 8] | Margin of error | Josh Hawley (R) | Wesley Bell (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 34% | 5% | 17% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley (incumbent) | ||||
| Democratic | TBD | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
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