2004 United States presidential election in Missouri

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2004 United States presidential election in Missouri
Flag of Missouri.svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,455,7131,259,171
Percentage53.30%46.10%

Missouri Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

Missouri was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 7.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 10 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. He also won a wide majority of the counties and congressional districts in the state.

At the time, Missouri was known for its status as a bellwether state, having voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1904, apart from 1956. Although the state's streak of voting for the winner of the presidency continued, Bush carried this state with a larger margin of victory than his nationwide results, indicating that the state had become more conservative than the rest of the country and that it was trending Republican. These factors eventually led the state to lose its bellwether status in the next election, albeit by a narrow margin.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [1]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLean R
Associated PressLean R
CNNLikely R
Cook Political ReportLean R
NewsweekLean R
New York TimesLean R
Rasmussen ReportsLikely R
Research 2000Toss-up
Washington PostLikely R
Washington TimesToss-up
Zogby InternationalLikely R
Washington DispatchLikely R

Polling

From May 2004, Bush won every single poll from the state. The final 3 polls taken from the state averaged Bush leading with 51% to 45%. [2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,026,802. [3] Kerry raised $1,418,159. [4]

Advertising and visits

This state was considered a major swing state. Both the Republican ticket and Democratic ticket visited the state 7 times in the general election. Kerry focused mostly on the urban areas such as St. Louis and Kansas City, while Bush focused more on rural such as Warrenton and Sedalia. [5]

Analysis

This was a better result for President Bush than 2000, when he carried the state by only 3%. In 2004, he received 265,789 more votes than in 2000, while Kerry won only 148,033 more votes than Gore in 2000. Bush won by a 7% margin. Kerry won just 4 counties in the state: Jackson County, Ste. Genevieve, St. Louis County, and St. Louis City. As of the 2020 presidential election , this is the last election in which Boone County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Missouri [6]
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican Party George W. Bush (incumbent)1,455,71353.30%11
Democratic Party John Kerry 1,259,17146.10%0
Libertarian Party Michael Badnarik 9,8310.36%0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka 5,3550.20%0
Write In Ralph Nader 1,2940.05%0
Totals2,731,364100.00%11
Voter turnout (Voting Age population) [7] [8] 63.6%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair 6,36755.83%4,93843.30%990.87%1,42912.53%11,404
Andrew 5,13562.12%3,06937.13%620.75%2,06624.99%8,266
Atchison 2,13767.71%1,00531.84%140.44%1,13235.87%3,156
Audrain 6,29458.92%4,31840.42%710.66%1,97618.50%10,683
Barry 9,59968.92%4,22330.32%1050.75%5,37638.60%13,927
Barton 4,57276.31%1,37322.92%460.77%3,19953.39%5,991
Bates 5,00459.11%3,39840.14%640.75%1,60618.97%8,466
Benton 5,57561.88%3,38137.53%530.59%2,19424.35%9,009
Bollinger 4,10269.58%1,75429.75%390.66%2,34839.83%5,895
Boone 37,80149.71%37,64349.50%6020.79%1580.21%76,046
Buchanan 19,81252.21%17,79946.90%3390.89%2,0135.31%37,950
Butler 11,69671.14%4,66628.38%790.48%7,03042.76%16,441
Caldwell 2,59360.75%1,64538.54%300.70%94822.21%4,268
Callaway 11,10862.50%6,55936.90%1060.60%4,54925.60%17,773
Camden 13,12267.23%6,29632.26%1010.52%6,82634.97%19,519
Cape Girardeau 23,81468.90%10,56830.57%1830.53%13,24638.33%34,565
Carroll 3,15566.55%1,56833.07%180.38%1,58733.48%4,741
Carter 1,79764.66%96434.69%180.64%83329.97%2,779
Cass 27,25361.63%16,68137.73%2830.64%10,57223.90%44,217
Cedar 4,23868.32%1,91030.79%550.89%2,32837.53%6,203
Chariton 2,42155.78%1,89243.59%270.62%52912.19%4,340
Christian 22,10270.51%9,05928.90%1870.60%13,04341.61%31,348
Clark 1,89950.83%1,79448.02%431.15%1052.81%3,736
Clay 51,19353.07%44,67046.31%5970.62%6,5236.76%96,460
Clinton 5,28755.42%4,16543.66%880.92%1,12211.76%9,540
Cole 24,75267.44%11,75332.02%1960.54%12,99935.42%36,701
Cooper 5,05867.37%2,40031.97%500.66%2,65835.40%7,508
Crawford 5,68660.61%3,63238.72%630.68%2,05421.89%9,381
Dade 2,96372.46%1,10427.00%220.55%1,85945.46%4,089
Dallas 4,78865.96%2,40733.16%640.88%2,38132.80%7,259
Daviess 2,35161.97%1,40236.95%411.08%94925.02%3,794
DeKalb 2,94162.76%1,70736.43%380.81%1,23426.33%4,686
Dent 4,36969.31%1,86529.58%701.12%2,50439.73%6,304
Douglas 4,49871.09%1,74127.52%881.39%2,75743.57%6,327
Dunklin 6,72057.55%4,90141.97%560.48%1,81915.58%11,677
Franklin 26,42958.32%18,55640.95%3330.73%7,87317.37%45,318
Gasconade 4,75366.28%2,35532.84%630.88%2,39833.44%7,171
Gentry 2,08562.95%1,20136.26%260.79%88426.69%3,312
Greene 77,88562.18%46,65737.25%7240.58%31,22824.93%125,266
Grundy 3,17265.97%1,56132.47%751.56%1,61133.50%4,808
Harrison 2,72967.42%1,27931.60%400.99%1,45035.82%4,048
Henry 6,36158.48%4,46141.01%550.51%1,90017.47%10,877
Hickory 2,79157.36%2,04341.99%320.66%74815.37%4,866
Holt 1,86469.27%81130.14%160.59%1,05339.13%2,691
Howard 2,91559.24%1,97240.07%340.69%94319.17%4,921
Howell 11,09767.75%5,11831.25%1641.00%5,97936.50%16,379
Iron 2,47752.94%2,15746.10%450.96%3206.84%4,679
Jackson 130,50041.30%183,65458.12%1,8390.58%-53,154-16.82%315,993
Jasper 31,84670.64%13,00228.84%2370.53%18,84441.80%45,085
Jefferson 46,62449.99%46,05749.38%5830.63%5670.61%93,264
Johnson 12,25760.57%7,79038.50%1890.93%4,46722.07%20,236
Knox 1,20761.02%76138.47%100.51%44622.55%1,978
Laclede 10,57871.14%4,21328.33%780.52%6,36542.81%14,869
Lafayette 9,65659.67%6,41239.62%1140.70%3,24420.05%16,182
Lawrence 11,19470.82%4,50628.51%1060.67%6,68842.31%15,806
Lewis 2,86261.63%1,75437.77%280.60%1,10823.86%4,644
Lincoln 11,31657.04%8,36842.18%1550.78%2,94814.86%19,839
Linn 3,42258.02%2,44041.37%360.61%98216.65%5,898
Livingston 4,02963.49%2,27835.90%390.61%1,75127.59%6,346
Macon 4,67361.73%2,85637.73%410.54%1,81724.00%7,570
Madison 2,90559.07%1,97240.10%410.83%93318.97%4,918
Maries 2,82563.86%1,56335.33%360.81%1,26228.53%4,424
Marion 7,81562.76%4,56836.68%700.56%3,24726.08%12,453
McDonald 5,44370.46%2,21528.67%670.87%3,22841.79%7,725
Mercer 1,20766.43%58232.03%281.54%62534.40%1,817
Miller 7,79771.99%2,95927.32%750.69%4,83844.67%10,831
Mississippi 2,90354.79%2,37444.81%210.40%5299.98%5,298
Moniteau 4,74370.89%1,91328.59%350.52%2,83042.30%6,691
Monroe 2,63261.11%1,64738.24%280.65%98522.87%4,307
Montgomery 3,56361.86%2,14737.27%500.87%1,41624.59%5,760
Morgan 5,65764.50%3,05334.81%610.69%2,60429.69%8,771
New Madrid 4,15452.54%3,71647.00%370.47%4385.54%7,907
Newton 17,18771.95%6,56427.48%1380.58%10,62344.47%23,889
Nodaway 6,22661.53%3,83037.85%630.62%2,39623.68%10,119
Oregon 2,76959.26%1,82339.01%811.73%94620.25%4,673
Osage 4,97574.58%1,67325.08%230.34%3,30249.50%6,671
Ozark 3,08365.50%1,56133.16%631.34%1,52232.34%4,707
Pemiscot 3,39849.93%3,38149.68%270.40%170.25%6,806
Perry 5,58367.70%2,62131.78%430.52%2,96235.92%8,247
Pettis 11,60366.32%5,80133.16%920.53%5,80233.16%17,496
Phelps 11,87463.50%6,66635.65%1600.85%5,20827.85%18,700
Pike 4,31453.66%3,67045.65%560.70%6448.01%8,040
Platte 23,30255.52%18,41243.87%2560.61%4,89011.65%41,970
Polk 8,58668.95%3,77530.31%920.74%4,81138.64%12,453
Pulaski 8,61870.52%3,55129.06%520.43%5,06741.46%12,221
Putnam 1,66067.89%77231.57%130.53%88836.32%2,445
Ralls 2,98659.32%2,03140.35%170.34%95518.97%5,034
Randolph 6,55164.24%3,58635.16%610.60%2,96529.08%10,198
Ray 5,67352.59%5,03446.66%810.75%6395.93%10,788
Reynolds 1,89656.36%1,44943.07%190.57%44713.29%3,364
Ripley 3,69365.33%1,90733.73%530.94%1,78631.60%5,653
Saline 5,38954.22%4,47945.06%710.71%9109.16%9,939
Schuyler 1,12455.34%89444.02%130.64%23011.32%2,031
Scotland 1,35261.54%82837.69%170.77%52423.85%2,197
Scott 11,33064.94%6,05734.71%610.35%5,27330.23%17,448
Shannon 2,51160.26%1,61838.83%380.91%89321.43%4,167
Shelby 2,28065.11%1,20134.29%210.60%1,07930.82%3,502
St. Charles 95,82658.61%66,85540.89%8070.50%28,97117.72%163,488
St. Clair 3,09862.40%1,84137.08%260.52%1,25725.32%4,965
St. Francois 12,08752.71%10,74846.87%980.43%1,3395.84%22,933
St. Louis 244,96945.12%295,28454.38%2,7300.50%-50,315-9.26%542,983
St. Louis City 27,79319.22%116,13380.29%7120.49%-88,340-61.07%144,638
Ste. Genevieve 3,79146.54%4,28152.55%740.91%-490-6.01%8,146
Stoddard 9,24269.74%3,94629.78%640.48%5,29639.96%13,252
Stone 10,53469.35%4,57830.14%770.51%5,95639.21%15,189
Sullivan 1,88060.86%1,17838.14%311.00%70222.72%3,089
Taney 13,57870.43%5,60129.05%1010.52%7,97741.38%19,280
Texas 7,23465.66%3,66433.25%1201.09%3,57032.41%11,018
Vernon 5,73263.75%3,20635.65%540.60%2,52628.10%8,992
Warren 7,88358.69%5,46140.66%880.66%2,42218.03%13,432
Washington 4,64150.57%4,45948.58%780.85%1821.99%9,178
Wayne 3,91963.17%2,25036.27%350.56%1,66926.90%6,204
Webster 10,19468.21%4,65731.16%930.62%5,53737.05%14,944
Worth 69161.04%43638.52%50.44%25522.52%1,132
Wright 6,09072.97%2,18826.22%680.82%3,90246.75%8,346
Totals1,455,71353.30%1,259,17146.10%16,4800.60%196,5427.20%2,731,364
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic Missouri County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won 6 of 9 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. [9]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st 25%75% William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd 60%40% Todd Akin
3rd 43%57% Dick Gephardt
Russ Carnahan
4th 64%35% Ike Skelton
5th 40%59% Karen McCarthy
Emanuel Cleaver
6th 57%42% Sam Graves
7th 67%32% Roy Blunt
8th 64%36% Jo Ann Emerson
9th 59%41% Kenny Hulshof

Electors

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Bush/Cheney. [10]

  1. Rosemary Kochner
  2. Fred Dyer
  3. Miriam Stonebraker
  4. Carolyn McDowell
  5. Cathy Owens
  6. Steve Krueger
  7. Emory Melton
  8. John Schudy
  9. Richard Hardy
  10. John Marschalk
  11. Warren Erdman

See also

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References

  1. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW [ permanent dead link ]
  2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  5. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  6. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Missouri".
  7. Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org.
  8. IT, Missouri Secretary of State -. "News". www.sos.mo.gov.
  9. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com.
  10. Archived copy Archived 2004-11-12 at the Wayback Machine