2004 United States presidential election in New York

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

2004 United States presidential election in New York

←  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  →
Turnout	62.44% 1.74 pp
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Alliance Working Families Conservative Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 31 0 Popular vote 4,314,280 2,962,567 Percentage 58.37% 40.08%
County Results Municipality Results Kerry   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Bush   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 18.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or a safe blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to have carried the state of New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the last one to even be competitive was Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988.

As expected, Kerry won the state of New York in a landslide. Statewide elections in New York are dominated by the overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold of New York City, the most populated city in the United States where around 40% of the state's population lives. Kerry received around 75% of the vote in the city alone. New York gave Kerry his fourth largest statewide margin of victory behind Kerry's home state of Massachusetts, and neighboring Rhode Island and Vermont.

Although the state was left uncontested by both candidates, Bush did manage to significantly improve on his performance from 2000, reducing his margin of defeat from 25% to 18%; this is often attributed to increased support for Bush in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

As of the 2020 United States presidential election, this is the last election in which the Republican candidate received over 40% of the vote, lost by less than a 20% margin in New York State or Westchester County, and carried Rockland and Dutchess counties. This is also the last time that any candidate won a majority of the vote in Ontario County. This also remains the only time in history that a president was elected twice without ever carrying New York.

Primaries

• 2004 New York Democratic presidential primary

Campaign

President George W. Bush at Ground Zero, 2001.

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. ^[1]

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Solid D
Cook Political Report	Solid D
Research 2000	Solid D
Zogby International	Likely D
Washington Post	Likely D
Washington Dispatch	Likely D
Washington Times	Solid D
The New York Times	Solid D
CNN	Likely D
Newsweek	Solid D
Associated Press	Solid D
Rasmussen Reports	Likely D

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double-digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3-poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%. ^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $11,994,227. ^[3] Kerry raised $27,733,309. ^[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign. ^{[5] [6]}

Analysis

The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99% to 24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14% - 48.86% victory.

The New York City suburbs consist of Long Island's Nassau and Suffolk counties as well as Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a close 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry. Exit polls showed 49% of voters in New York trusted Bush to handle terrorism, as opposed to 42% for Kerry. ^[7]

Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Bush expanded his margin in New York City's northern exurban counties Dutchess, Orange and Putnam from 2000. Despite this, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County.

According to exit polls, Senator Kerry won both males (56%-42%) and Females (60%-40%) over the president. ^[8] President Bush narrowly carried white voters in New York 50% to 49%. ^[9] This was not enough to overcome Senator Kerry carrying African Americans 90% to 9%, Latinos 75% to 24% and Asians 72% to 27%. ^[10] Kerry won all age groups over President Bush, with his closest wins being 52% to 47% among those aged 45–59 and 53% to 47% among those 60 and older. ^[11] Kerry also won all income groups and all levels of education. ^[12]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in New York [13]
Party		Candidate	Popular votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	4,180,755	56.57%
	Working Families	John Kerry	133,525	1.81%
	Total	John F. Kerry	4,314,280	58.37%	31
	Republican	George W. Bush	2,806,993	37.98%
	Conservative	George W. Bush	155,574	2.10%
	Total	George W. Bush (Incumbent)	2,962,567	40.08%	0
	Independence	Ralph Nader	84,247	1.14%
	Peace and Justice	Ralph Nader	15,626	0.21%
	Total	Ralph Nader	99,873	1.35%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	11,607	0.16%	0
	Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	2,405	0.03%	0
	Constitution (Write-In)	Michael Peroutka	363	>0.01%	0
	Green (Write-In)	David Cobb	138	>0.01%	0
	Independent (Write-In)	John J. Kennedy	8	>0.01%	0
	Independent (Write-In)	Michael Halpin	4	>0.01%	0
	Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	4	>0.01%	0
Totals			7,391,036	100%	31
Voter turnout:					62.44%

New York City results

2004 Presidential Election in New York City			Manhattan	The Bronx	Brooklyn	Queens	Staten Island	Total
	Democratic- Working Families	John F. Kerry	526,765	283,994	514,973	433,835	68,448	1,828,015	74.97%
			82.06%	82.80%	74.86%	71.66%	42.74%
	Republican- Conservative	George W. Bush	107,405	56,701	167,149	165,954	90,325	587,534	24.10%
			16.73%	16.53%	24.30%	27.41%	56.40%
	Independence- Peace and Justice	Ralph Nader	6,023	1,973	4,859	4,535	1,190	18,580	0.76%
			0.94%	0.58%	0.71%	0.75%	0.74%
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	1,276	140	570	561	134	2,007	0.11%
			0.20%	0.04%	0.08%	0.09%	0.08%
	Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	278	121	229	177	29	834	0.03%
			0.04%	0.04%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%
	Others		204	50	104	330	17	371	0.02%
			0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%
TOTAL			641,951	342,979	687,884	605,392	160,143	2,438,349	100.00%

By congressional district

Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party. ^[14]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	49%	49%	Tim Bishop
2nd	45%	53%	Steve Israel
3rd	52%	47%	Peter T. King
4th	44%	55%	Carolyn McCarthy
5th	36%	63%	Gary Ackerman
6th	15%	84%	Gregory W. Meeks
7th	25%	74%	Joseph Crowley
8th	27%	72%	Jerrold Nadler
9th	44%	56%	Anthony D. Weiner
10th	13%	86%	Edolphus Towns
11th	13%	86%	Major Owens
12th	19%	80%	Nydia Velasquez
13th	55%	45%	Vito Fossella
14th	25%	75%	Carolyn B. Maloney
15th	9%	90%	Charlie Rangel
16th	10%	89%	Jose Serrano
17th	33%	67%	Eliot L. Engel
18th	42%	58%	Nita Lowey
19th	54%	45%	Sue W. Kelly
20th	54%	46%	John E. Sweeney
21st	43%	55%	Michael R. McNulty
22nd	45%	54%	Maurice Hinchey
23rd	51%	47%	John M. McHugh
24th	53%	47%	Sherwood Boehlert
25th	48%	50%	James T. Walsh
26th	55%	43%	Thomas M. Reynolds
27th	45%	53%	Jack Quinn
			Brian Higgins
28th	36%	63%	Louise Slaughter
29th	56%	42%	Amo Houghton
			Randy Kuhl

By county

County	John Kerry Democratic		George W. Bush Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Albany	89,323	60.68%	54,872	37.28%	3,004	2.04%	34,451	23.40%	147,199
Allegany	6,566	34.07%	12,310	63.88%	394	2.05%	-5,744	-29.81%	19,270
Bronx	283,994	82.80%	56,701	16.53%	2,284	0.67%	227,293	66.27%	342,979
Broome	46,281	50.37%	43,568	47.41%	2,041	2.22%	2,713	2.96%	91,890
Cattaraugus	13,514	39.44%	20,051	58.52%	701	2.04%	-6,537	-19.08%	34,266
Cayuga	17,534	48.64%	17,743	49.22%	775	2.15%	-209	-0.58%	36,052
Chautauqua	27,257	44.72%	32,434	53.22%	1,253	2.06%	-5,177	-8.50%	60,944
Chemung	17,080	43.71%	21,321	54.56%	674	1.72%	-4,241	-10.85%	39,075
Chenango	9,277	43.47%	11,582	54.27%	482	2.26%	-2,305	-10.80%	21,341
Clinton	17,624	52.24%	15,330	45.44%	782	2.32%	2,294	6.80%	33,736
Columbia	15,929	51.21%	14,457	46.48%	717	2.31%	1,472	4.73%	31,103
Cortland	10,670	46.88%	11,613	51.02%	477	2.09%	-943	-4.14%	22,760
Delaware	8,724	41.22%	11,958	56.49%	485	2.29%	-3,234	-15.27%	21,167
Dutchess	58,232	47.01%	63,372	51.16%	2,277	1.84%	-5,140	-4.15%	123,881
Erie	251,090	56.41%	184,423	41.43%	9,625	2.17%	66,667	14.98%	445,138
Essex	8,768	45.95%	9,869	51.72%	445	2.34%	-1,101	-5.77%	19,082
Franklin	9,543	52.10%	8,383	45.77%	390	2.13%	1,160	6.33%	18,316
Fulton	9,202	41.42%	12,570	56.58%	443	1.99%	-3,368	-15.16%	22,215
Genesee	10,331	37.46%	16,725	60.64%	524	1.90%	-6,394	-23.18%	27,580
Greene	8,933	39.88%	12,996	58.02%	469	2.10%	-4,063	-18.14%	22,398
Hamilton	1,145	30.99%	2,475	66.98%	75	2.03%	-1,330	-35.99%	3,695
Herkimer	11,675	41.24%	16,024	56.60%	611	2.15%	-4,349	-15.36%	28,310
Jefferson	16,860	43.45%	21,231	54.72%	709	1.83%	-4,371	-11.27%	38,800
Kings	514,973	74.86%	167,149	24.30%	5,762	0.84%	347,824	50.56%	687,884
Lewis	4,546	39.89%	6,624	58.12%	227	1.99%	-2,078	-18.23%	11,397
Livingston	11,504	38.41%	17,729	59.20%	715	2.39%	-6,225	-20.79%	29,948
Madison	13,121	43.32%	16,537	54.60%	629	2.08%	-3,416	-11.28%	30,287
Monroe	173,497	50.57%	163,545	47.67%	6,022	1.76%	9,952	2.90%	343,064
Montgomery	9,449	44.53%	11,338	53.43%	434	2.04%	-1,889	-8.90%	21,221
Nassau	323,070	52.25%	288,355	46.63%	6,918	1.12%	34,715	5.62%	618,343
New York	526,765	82.06%	107,405	16.73%	7,781	1.21%	419,360	65.33%	641,951
Niagara	47,602	49.29%	47,111	48.78%	1,867	1.93%	491	0.51%	96,580
Oneida	40,792	42.77%	52,392	54.93%	2,197	2.30%	-11,600	-12.16%	95,381
Onondaga	116,381	54.23%	94,006	43.80%	4,238	1.98%	22,375	10.43%	214,625
Ontario	21,166	42.24%	27,999	55.88%	945	1.89%	-6,833	-13.64%	50,110
Orange	63,394	43.82%	79,089	54.67%	2,190	1.51%	-15,695	-10.85%	144,673
Orleans	5,959	35.95%	10,317	62.24%	301	1.81%	-4,358	-26.29%	16,577
Oswego	24,133	46.76%	26,325	51.01%	1,149	2.23%	-2,192	-4.25%	51,607
Otsego	12,723	47.74%	13,342	50.06%	587	2.20%	-619	-2.32%	26,652
Putnam	19,575	42.03%	26,356	56.59%	640	1.37%	-6,781	-14.56%	46,571
Queens	433,835	71.66%	165,954	27.41%	5,603	0.93%	267,881	44.25%	605,392
Rensselaer	36,075	49.75%	34,734	47.90%	1,705	2.35%	1,341	1.85%	72,514
Richmond	68,448	42.74%	90,325	56.40%	1,370	0.85%	-21,877	-13.66%	160,143
Rockland	64,191	48.91%	65,130	49.63%	1,910	1.46%	-939	-0.72%	131,231
Saratoga	48,730	45.60%	56,158	52.55%	1,985	1.86%	-7,428	-6.95%	106,873
Schenectady	35,971	51.78%	32,066	46.16%	1,432	2.06%	3,905	5.62%	69,469
Schoharie	5,630	38.67%	8,591	59.01%	338	2.33%	-2,961	-20.34%	14,559
Schuyler	3,445	40.10%	4,960	57.74%	185	2.16%	-1,515	-17.64%	8,590
Seneca	6,979	45.54%	7,981	52.08%	365	2.38%	-1,002	-6.54%	15,325
St. Lawrence	22,857	54.73%	18,029	43.17%	875	2.09%	4,828	11.56%	41,761
Steuben	14,523	34.35%	26,980	63.81%	781	1.85%	-12,457	-29.46%	42,284
Suffolk	315,909	49.46%	309,949	48.53%	12,854	2.01%	5,960	0.93%	638,712
Sullivan	15,034	48.55%	15,319	49.47%	613	1.98%	-285	-0.92%	30,966
Tioga	9,694	40.56%	13,762	57.58%	446	1.87%	-4,068	-17.02%	23,902
Tompkins	27,229	64.19%	13,994	32.99%	1,198	2.82%	13,235	31.20%	42,421
Ulster	47,602	54.27%	37,821	43.12%	2,289	2.61%	9,781	11.15%	87,712
Warren	13,405	43.16%	16,969	54.63%	685	2.20%	-3,564	-11.47%	31,059
Washington	10,624	42.32%	13,827	55.08%	652	2.59%	-3,203	-12.76%	25,103
Wayne	15,709	38.11%	24,709	59.94%	802	1.94%	-9,000	-21.83%	41,220
Westchester	229,849	58.08%	159,628	40.33%	6,293	1.59%	70,221	17.75%	395,770
Wyoming	6,134	33.76%	11,745	64.64%	290	1.59%	-5,611	-30.88%	18,169
Yates	4,205	39.26%	6,309	58.90%	197	1.83%	-2,104	-19.64%	10,711
Totals	4,314,280	58.36%	2,962,567	40.08%	115,107	1.56%	1,351,713	18.28%	7,391,954

County Flips:

Democratic   Hold

Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Cayuga (County Seat: Auburn)
• Montgomery (County Seat: Fonda)
• Richmond (coterminous with Staten Island, a borough of New York City)
• Rockland (County Seat: New City)
• Seneca (County Seat: Waterloo)
• Sullivan (County Seat: Monticello)

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Joseph Ashton
2. Bill De Blasio
3. Molly Clifford
4. Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez
5. Inez Dickens
6. Danny Donahue
7. Herman D. Farrell
8. C. Virginia Fields
9. Emily Giske
10. Bea Gonzalez
11. Alan Hevesi
12. Frank Hoare
13. Virginia Kee
14. Peggy Kerry
15. Denise King
16. Len Lenihan
17. Bertha Lewis
18. Alan Lubin
19. Thomas J. Manton
20. Dennis Mehiel
21. June O'Neill
22. David Paterson
23. Jose Rivera
24. Rich Schaffer
25. Chung Seto
26. Sheldon Silver
27. Eliot Spitzer
28. Antoine Thompson
29. Paul Tokasz
30. Bill Wood
31. Robert Zimmerman

See also

• United States presidential elections in New York
• Presidency of George W. Bush

References

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2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
5. "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
6. "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
7. "CNN.com Election 2004".
8. "CNN.com Election 2004".
9. "CNN.com Election 2004".
10. "CNN.com Election 2004".
11. "CNN.com Election 2004".
12. "CNN.com Election 2004".
13. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2004 - New York". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2013-01-07.
14. "Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.