2004 United States presidential election in Oregon

Last updated

2004 United States presidential election in Oregon
Flag of Oregon.svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
Turnout68%
  John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote70
Popular vote943,163866,831
Percentage51.35%47.19%

Oregon Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
2004 United States presidential election in Oregon by congressional district.svg

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

Oregon was won by Democratic Party nominee John Kerry by 4.16 points. Prior to the election, news organizations considered the state a tossup or leaning Kerry. A moderate amount of campaigning took place here, as Kerry was ahead in every poll after October 14, each with between 47% and 53% of the vote. Though the state had been very competitive and barely carried by Al Gore four years earlier, Oregon is considered a blue state as no Republican presidential candidate has won it since Ronald Reagan in 1984. While larger than Gore's, Kerry's margin of victory in Oregon was relatively modest. This is the most recent presidential election in which Oregon was considered a swing state. [1]

As of the 2024 presidential election , this is the most recent election in which Clackamas County voted for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the most recent time the state's margin would be in the single digits, [2] and the latest presidential election in which a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. Bush would win re-election nationwide in 2004, the first time in history that a Republican had been elected twice as president without ever carrying Oregon.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [3]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLean D
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Likely D
Cook Political Report Lean D
Newsweek Lean D
New York Times Lean D
Rasmussen Reports Likely D
Research 2000 Solid D
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Likely D
Washington DispatchLikely D

Polling

Kerry won most pre-election polling. The final 3 poll average had Kerry leading 50% to 45% for Bush. [4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,497,451. [5] Kerry raised $1,937,916. [6]

Advertising and visits

In the week of September 28, both tickets combined spent an estimated $546,000 on advertising. However, both tickets spent less and less money each week. [7] Bush visited here 2 times. Kerry visited here 3 times. Both tickets visited the western part of the state. [8]

Analysis

After the 2000 election, which saw a particularly close race, Oregon was largely considered a potential Republican target. However, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won 51% of Oregon's vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent George W. Bush. The rural and highly conservative eastern interior and Southern Oregon favored Bush, but Kerry's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley allowed him to win the state. About 68% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Oregon
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 943,16351.35%7
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent)866,83147.19%0
Write Ins8,9560.49%0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 7,2600.40%0
Pacific Green David Cobb 5,3150.29%0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 5,2570.29%0
Totals1,836,782100.00%7
Voter turnout (Voting age population)67.8%

Results by county

CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Baker 2,61628.96%6,25369.22%1651.83%-3,637-40.26%9,034
Benton 26,51557.98%18,46040.36%7601.67%8,05517.62%45,735
Clackamas 95,12948.78%97,69150.10%2,1801.12%-2,562-1.32%195,000
Clatsop 10,46154.18%8,50344.04%3451.79%1,95810.14%19,309
Columbia 12,56350.42%11,86847.63%4861.95%6952.79%24,917
Coos 14,39343.14%18,29154.83%6782.03%-3,898-11.69%33,362
Crook 3,02430.09%6,83067.95%1971.96%-3,806-37.86%10,051
Curry 5,22040.78%7,33257.29%2471.93%-2,112-16.51%12,799
Deschutes 31,17942.11%41,75756.39%1,1121.50%-10,578-14.28%74,048
Douglas 18,08932.90%35,95665.39%9391.71%-17,867-32.49%54,984
Gilliam 37032.51%75566.34%131.14%-385-33.83%1,138
Grant 78019.21%3,20478.90%771.90%-2,424-59.69%4,061
Harney 83922.66%2,81576.04%481.30%-1,976-53.38%3,702
Hood River 5,58756.67%4,12441.83%1481.50%1,46314.84%9,859
Jackson 44,36643.42%56,51955.31%1,3041.28%-12,153-11.89%102,189
Jefferson 3,24339.96%4,76258.68%1101.36%-1,519-18.72%8,115
Josephine 15,21435.99%26,24162.07%8201.94%-11,027-26.08%42,275
Klamath 8,26426.22%22,73372.13%5181.64%-14,469-45.91%31,515
Lake 80220.54%3,03977.82%641.64%-2,237-57.28%3,905
Lane 107,76957.98%75,00740.35%3,0961.67%32,76217.63%185,872
Lincoln 13,75356.54%10,16041.77%4121.69%3,59314.77%24,325
Linn 19,94038.32%31,26060.07%8411.62%-11,320-21.75%52,041
Malheur 2,57723.76%8,12374.89%1461.35%-5,546-51.13%10,846
Marion 57,67144.49%69,90053.93%2,0481.58%-12,229-9.44%129,619
Morrow 1,36132.80%2,73265.85%561.35%-1,371-33.05%4,149
Multnomah 259,58571.57%98,43927.14%4,6701.29%161,14644.43%362,694
Polk 15,48443.63%19,50854.97%4971.40%-4,024-11.34%35,489
Sherman 39035.33%69462.86%201.81%-304-27.53%1,104
Tillamook 6,75048.38%7,00350.20%1981.42%-253-1.82%13,951
Umatilla 8,88433.75%17,06864.84%3701.41%-8,184-31.09%26,322
Union 4,42832.75%8,87965.68%2121.57%-4,451-32.93%13,519
Wallowa 1,26928.07%3,13269.28%1202.65%-1,863-41.21%4,521
Wasco 5,69147.42%6,11950.98%1921.60%-428-3.56%12,002
Washington 121,14052.37%107,22346.36%2,9451.27%13,9176.01%231,308
Wheeler 24527.84%61269.55%232.61%-367-41.71%880
Yamhill 17,57241.70%23,83956.57%7311.73%-6,267-14.87%42,142
Totals943,16351.35%866,83147.19%26,7881.46%76,3324.16%1,836,782

By congressional district

Kerry won three of five congressional districts. Bush won two, including one held by a Democrat. [9]

DistrictKerryBushRepresentative
1st 55%44% David Wu
2nd 38%61% Greg Walden
3rd 67%33% Earl Blumenauer
4th 49%49% Peter DeFazio
5th 49%50% Darlene Hooley

Electors

Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All seven were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Michael J. Bohan
  2. Shirley A. Cairns
  3. James L. Edmunson
  4. Moshe D. Lenske
  5. Meredith Wood Smith
  6. Judy A. Sugnet
  7. Paul F. Zastrow

See also

References

  1. Levien, Andrea (October 4, 2012). "How New Mexico Lost Its Swing". FairVote. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  2. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  3. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW [ permanent dead link ]
  4. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  5. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  6. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  7. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  8. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  9. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". December 15, 2008.