2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election

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2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election
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  Kate Brown in 2017 (3x4a).jpg Bud pierce in front of state capitol (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Kate Brown Bud Pierce
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families
Popular vote985,027845,609
Percentage50.6%43.5%
2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election results map by county.svg
OR Governor 2016.svg
Brown:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Pierce:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No data
Governor before election

Kate Brown
Democratic

Elected Governor

Kate Brown
Democratic

The 2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, other gubernatorial elections and various state and local elections.

Contents

The election determined who would fill the remaining two years of the term of Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, who was re-elected in 2014 and resigned in February 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Kate Brown, who as Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship, ran for election to the office. In primary elections held on May 17, Brown easily captured the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans picked Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.

Brown won the election and became the first openly LGBT person elected to a term as governor in U.S. history. This election was the first time since 1990 that a woman was elected Governor of Oregon. As of 2024, it was also the last gubernatorial special election in the U.S., excluding recall elections.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Julian Bell, critical care and pulmonary medicine specialist [1]
  • Kate Brown, incumbent governor [2]
  • Chet Chance, professional driver [3]
  • Kevin M. Forsythe, Walmart employee [3]
  • Steve Johnson, health worker [3] [4]
  • Dave Stauffer, environmental engineer [3]

Declined

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Brown 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Oregon gubernatorial Democratic primary results by county, 2016.svg
Results by county:
  Brown
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Democratic primary [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 494,890 83.03
Democratic Julian Bell49,3138.27
Democratic Dave Stauffer16,1082.70
Democratic Steve Johnson13,3632.24
Democratic Kevin M. Forsythe10,1471.70
Democratic Chet Chance5,6360.95
Democratic Write-ins6,5951.11
Total votes596,052 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Allen
Alley		Bruce
Cuff		Bob
Forthan		Bob
Neimeyer		Bud
Pierce		Undecided
DHM Research [24] May 6–9, 2016324± 5.7%22%3%1%5%25%44%

Results

Results by county: Pierce 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Alley 30-40% 40-50% Oregon gubernatorial Republican primary results by county, 2016.svg
Results by county:
  Pierce
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Alley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Republican primary [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican William C. Pierce 171,158 47.66
Republican Allen Alley103,38828.79
Republican Bruce Cuff41,59811.58
Republican Bob Niemeyer35,6699.93
Republican Bob Forthan4,2901.19
Republican Write-ins3,0200.84
Total votes359,123 100.00

Independent Party primary

The Independent Party of Oregon officially qualified as a major party on August 17, 2015. [25]

Candidates

Declared

  • Patrick Barney [3]
  • Cliff Thomason, realtor [3]

Declined

Results

Results by county. Blue indicates a win by Thomason, yellow a win by Barney. Oregon gubernatorial Independent primary results by county, 2016.svg
Results by county. Blue indicates a win by Thomason, yellow a win by Barney.
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Independent primary [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Independent Party Cliff Thomason 9,806 34.89
Independent Party Patrick Barney6,84024.34
Independent Party Write-ins11,46040.77
Total votes28,106 100.00

Minor parties

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [30] Likely DAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos [31] Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [32] Safe DNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [33] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [34] Likely DNovember 1, 2016
Governing [35] Safe DOctober 27, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kate
Brown (D)		Bud
Pierce (R)		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [36] October 4–29, 2016October 29, 201645.5%35.5%19.0%Brown +10.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kate
Brown (D)		Bud
Pierce (R)		Cliff
Thomason (I)		James
Foster (L)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [37] November 1–7, 20161,595± 4.6%56%41%———3%
SurveyMonkey [38] October 31 – November 6, 20161,483± 4.6%56%40%———4%
SurveyMonkey [39] October 28 – November 3, 20161,150± 4.6%56%40%———4%
SurveyMonkey [40] October 27 – November 2, 2016934± 4.6%55%41%———4%
SurveyMonkey [41] October 26 – November 1, 2016809± 4.6%54%41%———5%
SurveyMonkey [42] October 25–31, 2016743± 4.6%54%42%———4%
FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research [43] October 24–29, 2016504± 4.4%42%33%4%3%4%15%
Clout Research (R) [44] October 20–21, 2016928± 3.2%45%43%——6%6%
KGW Oregonian/Riley Research [45] October 4–14, 2016608± 4.0%48%34%———13%
Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research [46] October 6–13, 2016600± 4.0%46%33%4%3%—12%
KATU-TV/SurveyUSA [47] October 10–12, 2016654± 3.9%46%42%——4%8%
iCitizen [48] September 2–7, 2016610± 4.0%44%27%3%3%—23%
KATU-TV/DHM Research [49] September 1–6, 2016517± 4.3%43%35%———18%
Clout Research (R) [50] July 9–13, 2016701± 3.7%43%42%5%2%—7%
iCitizen [51] June 23–27, 2016555± 4.0%42%35%———23%
Action Solutions [52] →June 1–2, 2016600± 5.7%39%37%———24%
Moore Information [53] April 20, 2015500± 4.0%45%27%———28%

→ Indicates an internal poll conducted on behalf of Bud Pierce.

Hypothetical polling

with Allen Alley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kate
Brown (D)		Allen
Alley (R)		OtherUndecided
Moore Information [53] April 20, 2015500± 4.0%47%32%—21%

with Shane Bemis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kate
Brown (D)		Shane
Bemis (R)		OtherUndecided
Moore Information [53] April 20, 2015500± 4.0%45%26%—28%

with Dennis Richardson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kate
Brown (D)		Dennis
Richardson (R)		OtherUndecided
Moore Information [53] April 20, 2015500± 4.0%48%41%—12%

Results

Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 [54]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 985,027 50.62% +0.73%
Republican Bud Pierce 845,60943.45%−0.68%
Independent Party Cliff Thomason47,4812.44%N/A
Libertarian James Foster45,1912.32%+0.83%
Constitution Aaron Donald Auer19,4001.00%−0.08%
Write-in 3,3380.17%-0.28%
Total votes1,946,046 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Brown won 3 of 5 congressional districts. Pierce won the other two, including one that elected a Democrat.

DistrictKate
Brown		Bud
Pierce		Elected
Representative
1st 53.68%40.52% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 38.14%55.10% Greg Walden
3rd 68.44%26.31% Earl Blumenauer
4th 46.87%46.41% Peter DeFazio
5th 45.46%49.43% Kurt Schrader

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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References

  1. ↑ Mortensen, Camilla (October 1, 2015). "Climate Change Fuels a Run For Governor". Eugene Weekly . Archived from the original on October 5, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  2. ↑ Theriault, Denis C. (September 18, 2015) "Kate Brown makes clear she's running for governor", The Oregonian . Retrieved September 18, 2015.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Kullgren, Ian (March 9, 2016). "Election 2016: Who's running for office in Oregon? Portland? We've got your list right here". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
  4. ↑ "Steve Johnson 2016 | Home". sbjforgovernor.org. Archived from the original on March 31, 2016. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  5. 1 2 3 Topaz, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Meet Kate Brown". Politico . Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  6. ↑ Theriault, Denis C. (October 6, 2015). "Oregon labor commissioner announces run for secretary of state". The Oregonian . Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  7. ↑ Schmidt, Brad (September 9, 2015). "Ted Wheeler: 'I'm running for mayor of Portland'". The Oregonian . Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  8. 1 2 3 "May 17, 2016 Primary Election Results". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2016.
  9. ↑ Theriault, Denis C. (March 7, 2016). "Shakeup in governor's race: Allen Alley wants Republican nomination". The Oregonian . Retrieved March 7, 2016.
  10. 1 2 Friedman, Gordeon (March 2, 2016). "Report: Allen Alley running for Oregon governor". KGW. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
  11. ↑ Theriault, Denis C. (September 29, 2015). "Another Republican has filed for the 2016 Oregon governor's race". The Oregonian . Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  12. ↑ "About Our Clinic". Hematology Oncology of Salem. Archived from the original on July 15, 2011. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
  13. ↑ Gray, Chris (September 24, 2015). "The Lund Report". The Lund Report. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
  14. ↑ Kullgren, Ian K. (March 16, 2015). "Republican doctor from Salem contemplates gubernatorial run". The Oregonian . Retrieved March 16, 2015.
  15. ↑ "Kate Brown confirms she'll run for governor". The Associated Press . September 18, 2015. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
  16. 1 2 Forrester, Steve (April 19, 2015). "Middle-ground Republican could give Brown a race". The Daily Astorian . Retrieved April 21, 2015.
  17. ↑ Anderson, Taylor W. (July 13, 2015). "Buehler says he may run for Oregon governor in 2016". The Bulletin . Retrieved July 13, 2015.
  18. ↑ Theriault, Denis C. (August 25, 2015). "Knute Buehler says he won't run for governor, wants to stay in House". The Oregonian . Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  19. ↑ Glucklich, Elon (June 30, 2015). "Lane County Commissioner Sid Leiken out of Oregon governor's race, seeks Secretary of State post instead". The Register-Guard . Archived from the original on July 16, 2015. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
  20. ↑ Hubbard, Saul (April 21, 2015). "GOP Rep. Julie Parrish announces that she won't run for statewide office in 2016, despite speculation that she will #orleg #orpol". Twitter. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
  21. ↑ Anderson, Taylor W. (August 28, 2015). "Dennis Richardson 'not interested in running' in 2016". The Bend Bulletin . Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  22. ↑ Theriault, Denis C. (April 23, 2015). "Election 2016: Linn County Republican says she's been 'approached' for governor's race". The Oregonian . Retrieved April 23, 2015.
  23. ↑ "Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all". OregonLive. September 2, 2015.
  24. ↑ DHM Research Archived 2016-05-19 at the Wayback Machine
  25. ↑ Mapes, Jeff (August 17, 2015). "Independent Party of Oregon qualifies as a major party". The Oregonian . Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  26. ↑ Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2015). "Johnson tour sparks speculation she's running for governor". East Oregonian . Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  27. 1 2 "Candidate Filings" (pdf). Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  28. ↑ "Aaron Donald Auer". Constitution Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on August 16, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  29. ↑ "James Foster". Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on May 18, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  30. ↑ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  31. ↑ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  32. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  33. ↑ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  34. ↑ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  35. ↑ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  36. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  37. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  38. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  39. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  40. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  41. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  42. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  43. ↑ FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research Archived 2016-11-02 at the Wayback Machine
  44. ↑ Clout Research (R)
  45. ↑ KGW Oregonian/Riley Research Archived 2016-10-20 at the Wayback Machine
  46. ↑ Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research Archived 2016-10-18 at the Wayback Machine
  47. ↑ KATU-TV/SurveyUSA
  48. ↑ iCitizen
  49. ↑ KATU-TV/DHM Research
  50. ↑ Clout Research (R)
  51. ↑ iCitizen
  52. ↑ Action Solutions Archived 2016-06-22 at the Wayback Machine
  53. 1 2 3 4 Moore Information Archived 2015-04-28 at the Wayback Machine
  54. ↑ "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved January 3, 2017.

Nominees

Primary candidates

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