2016 Montana gubernatorial election

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2016 Montana gubernatorial election
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←  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  →
Turnout74.44%Increase2.svg2.26 [1]
  Steve Bullock.jpg Greg Gianforte (cropped).jpg
Nominee Steve Bullock Greg Gianforte
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Mike Cooney Lesley Robinson
Popular vote255,933236,115
Percentage50.25%46.35%
2016 Montana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
MT Governor 2016.svg
Bullock:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Gianforte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No votes
Governor before election

Steve Bullock
Democratic

Elected Governor

Steve Bullock
Democratic

The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Montana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Bullock won re-election to a second term in office with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Republican Greg Gianforte, who later won Montana's Governorship in 2020 when Bullock was term-limited.

In the concurrent presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost Montana by more than 20%, with Bullock thus over-performing her vote share by more than 14% and her margin of defeat by more than 24%. This is the last time Democrats won any statewide election in Montana other than a U.S. Senate race. This is also the last time the winning gubernatorial and presidential candidates in Montana were of different political parties.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Mike Anderson

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Steve Bullock (incumbent) 109,450 91.3%
Democratic Bill McChesney10,4868.7%
Total votes119,936 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Niki Sardot

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte
U.S. Senators
State officials
Organizations

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Greg Gianforte 109,882 76.4%
Republican Terry Nelson33,98723.6%
Total votes143,869 100.0%

Third parties

Independent

Declared

  • Christopher Zarcone [9]

Libertarian

Declared

  • Running mate: Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate

Withdrew

  • Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate [9]

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte
Governors
State officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Organizations

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [20] Lean DAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos [21] Lean DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [22] Lean DNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [24] Lean DNovember 1, 2016
Governing [25] TossupOctober 27, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Bullock (D)		Greg
Gianforte (R)		Ted
Dunlap (L)		Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016449± 4.6%44%46%7%3%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016410± 4.6%45%44%8%3%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016403± 4.6%46%46%7%1%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016376± 4.6%48%43%7%2%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016385± 4.6%51%41%7%1%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016405± 4.6%53%39%7%1%
Mason-Dixon October 10–12, 20161,003± 3.2%47%45%2%6%
Montana State University Billings October 3–10, 2016590± 4.0%44%32%3%20%
Hypothetical polling
with Ryan Zinke
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Bullock (D)		Ryan
Zinke (R)		OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing February 24–25, 20151,035± 3%44%44%—11%
Gravis Marketing November 24–25, 2014836± 3%41%49%—10%
with Tim Fox
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Bullock (D)		Tim
Fox (R)		OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing February 24–25, 20151,035± 3%46%38%—16%
Gravis Marketing November 24–25, 2014836± 3%41%45%—14%
Public Policy Polling July 20–22, 2013741± 4%46%43%—11%

Results

2016 Montana gubernatorial election [26]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Steve Bullock (incumbent) 255,933 50.25% +1.35%
Republican Greg Gianforte 236,11546.35%-0.99%
Libertarian Ted Dunlap17,3123.40%-0.36%
Total votes509,360 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

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References

  1. ↑ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
  2. ↑ Dennison, Mike (March 1, 2016). "Bullock files for re-election for governor". KTVQ. Archived from the original on March 2, 2016. Retrieved March 2, 2016.
  3. ↑ "Former legislator steps into Democratic governor's race". Independent Record. March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 12, 2016.[ permanent dead link ]
  4. 1 2 3 "AG Tim Fox files paperwork for re-election in 2016". The Bozeman Daily Chronicle. November 13, 2014. Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  5. ↑ McCumber, David (August 17, 2015). "Gianforte files exploratory papers for governor". The Montana Standard . Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  6. ↑ Calvin, Bobby (January 20, 2016). "Gianforte officially launches campaign for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Retrieved January 20, 2016.
  7. ↑ Bragg, Dennis. "Nelson jumps into Montana gubernatorial race". Archived from the original on March 6, 2017. Retrieved March 6, 2017.
  8. ↑ "Brad Johnson drops out of race for Montana governor". Billings Gazette . January 27, 2016. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
  9. 1 2 3 Carter, Troy (February 1, 2015). "First contestant enters GOP gubernatorial field". Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Archived from the original on February 5, 2015. Retrieved February 3, 2015.
  10. ↑ Flint, Aaron (January 26, 2015). "Report: Taylor Brown Doesn't Rule Out Run for Governor". Northern Broadcasting System . Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved March 7, 2015.
  11. ↑ Jacobson, Louis (January 23, 2015). "Democrats Have More Seats to Defend in 2015-2016 Governors Races". Governing . Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  12. 1 2 3 4 "Former US Senator Conrad Burns, Former US Reps Rehberg, Hill, and Marlenee Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 12, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
  13. 1 2 "Daines, Zinke Endorse Greg Gianforte, Lesley Robinson For Gov., Lt. Gov. Of Montana". Fairfield Sun Times. April 5, 2016.[ permanent dead link ]
  14. 1 2 3 4 "Montana Attorney General Tim Fox, Former Governors Endorse Gianforte-Robinson Ticket". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 11, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
  15. ↑ "GIANFORTE/ROBINSON LAND ENDORSEMENT FROM MONTANA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE". National Federation of Independent Business. June 17, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
  16. ↑ "Gianforte-Robinson Land Important Endorsement in 2016 Election, AG is Montana's Number One Industry". Greg Gianforte for Montana. April 21, 2016. Archived from the original on October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
  17. ↑ "NFIB Endorses Greg Gianforte for Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. August 16, 2016.
  18. ↑ Backus, Perry (March 20, 2016). "Libertarian from Conner running for governor". Independent Record. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 "Endorsements". gregformontana.com. Archived from the original on October 30, 2016. Retrieved October 30, 2016.
  20. ↑ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  21. ↑ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  22. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on June 12, 2017. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  23. ↑ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  24. ↑ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  25. ↑ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  26. ↑ "2016 General Election" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
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