2016 Montana gubernatorial election

Last updated

2016 Montana gubernatorial election
Flag of Montana.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
Turnout74.44%Increase2.svg2.26 [1]
  Steve Bullock.jpg Greg Gianforte (cropped).jpg
Nominee Steve Bullock Greg Gianforte
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Mike Cooney Lesley Robinson
Popular vote255,933236,115
Percentage50.25%46.35%

2016 Montana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
MT Governor 2016.svg
Bullock:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Gianforte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No votes

Governor before election

Steve Bullock
Democratic

Elected Governor

Steve Bullock
Democratic

The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Montana, concurrently with the presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock won re-election to a second term in office with 50.3% of the vote, defeating Republican Greg Gianforte, who later won Montana's governorship in 2020 when Bullock was term-limited.

In the concurrent presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost Montana by more than 20%, with Bullock thus over-performing her vote share by more than 14% and her margin of defeat by more than 24%.

As of 2024 this is the most recent election where a Democrat won the Governor's office and/or state level office.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Running mate: Mike Anderson

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Steve Bullock (incumbent) 109,450 91.3%
Democratic Bill McChesney10,4868.7%
Total votes119,936 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Running mate: Niki Sardot

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

U.S. senators

State officials

Organizations

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Greg Gianforte 109,882 76.4%
Republican Terry Nelson33,98723.6%
Total votes143,869 100.0%

Third parties

Independent

Declared

  • Christopher Zarcone [9]

Libertarian

Declared

  • Running mate: Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate

Withdrew

  • Ron Vandevender, perennial candidate [9]

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

Governors

State officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [20] Lean DAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos [21] Lean DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [22] Lean DNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [24] Lean DNovember 1, 2016
Governing [25] TossupOctober 27, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Greg
Gianforte (R)
Ted
Dunlap (L)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey [26] November 1–7, 2016449± 4.6%44%46%7%3%
SurveyMonkey [27] October 31–November 6, 2016410± 4.6%45%44%8%3%
SurveyMonkey [28] October 28–November 3, 2016403± 4.6%46%46%7%1%
SurveyMonkey [29] October 27–November 2, 2016376± 4.6%48%43%7%2%
SurveyMonkey [30] October 26–November 1, 2016385± 4.6%51%41%7%1%
SurveyMonkey [31] October 25–31, 2016405± 4.6%53%39%7%1%
Mason-Dixon [32] October 10–12, 20161,003± 3.2%47%45%2%6%
Montana State University Billings [33] October 3–10, 2016590± 4.0%44%32%3%20%
Hypothetical polling

with Ryan Zinke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Ryan
Zinke (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [34] February 24–25, 20151,035± 3%44%44%11%
Gravis Marketing [34] November 24–25, 2014836± 3%41%49%10%

with Tim Fox

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [34] February 24–25, 20151,035± 3%46%38%16%
Gravis Marketing [34] November 24–25, 2014836± 3%41%45%14%
Public Policy Polling [35] July 20–22, 2013741± 4%46%43%11%

Results

2016 Montana gubernatorial election [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Steve Bullock (incumbent) 255,933 50.25% +1.35%
Republican Greg Gianforte 236,11546.35%−0.99%
Libertarian Ted Dunlap17,3123.40%−0.36%
Total votes509,360 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

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References

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  3. "Former legislator steps into Democratic governor's race". Independent Record. March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 12, 2016.[ permanent dead link ]
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  5. McCumber, David (August 17, 2015). "Gianforte files exploratory papers for governor". The Montana Standard . Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  6. Calvin, Bobby (January 20, 2016). "Gianforte officially launches campaign for Montana governor". The Missoulian. Retrieved January 20, 2016.
  7. Bragg, Dennis. "Nelson jumps into Montana gubernatorial race". Archived from the original on March 6, 2017. Retrieved March 6, 2017.
  8. "Brad Johnson drops out of race for Montana governor". Billings Gazette . January 27, 2016. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
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  17. "NFIB Endorses Greg Gianforte for Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. August 16, 2016.
  18. Backus, Perry (March 20, 2016). "Libertarian from Conner running for governor". Independent Record. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
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  23. "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
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  34. 1 2 3 4 Gravis Marketing
  35. Public Policy Polling
  36. "2016 General Election" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2017.

Official campaign websites (archived)