2024 United States presidential election in Montana

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in Montana
Flag of Montana.svg
  2020 November 5, 20242028 
Turnout75.38% (of registered voters) [1] Decrease2.svg
  Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote40
Popular vote352,079231,906
Percentage58.39%38.46%

Montana Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
MT-24-pres-districts.svg

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. [2]

Contents

Trump once again won Montana by 19.9%, an increase from his 16.4% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.4% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state.

Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana — a sparsely-populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains — has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.

However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as very competitive despite Sheehy's ultimate victory by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.

Trump became the first Republican to win predominantly-Native American Big Horn County since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.5% victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 47 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Democratic primary, June 4, 2024 [3]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)94,58791.1%2020
No preference 9,2858.9%
Total:103,872100.0%20525

Republican primary

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Republican primary, June 4, 2024 [4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 165,67890.9%
No Preference 16,5709.1%
Total:182,248100.00%31031

Green primary

The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.

Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
No Preference 495100.00%4
Total:495100.00%4
Source: [5]

General election

Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana: [6]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [7] Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8] Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10] Safe RMay 30, 2023
CNalysis [11] Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN [12] Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [13] Safe RJune 12, 2024
538 [14] Solid RSeptember 23, 2024
RCP [15] Likely RJune 26, 2024
NBC News [16] Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel [17] November 3–4, 2024752 (LV)± 4.0%59%39%2%
Emerson College [18] [A] October 23–25, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%58%39%3% [b]
59% [c] 40%1%
New York Times/Siena College [19] October 5–8, 2024656 (RV)± 4.0%57%39%4%
656 (LV)57%40%3%
RMG Research [20] [B] September 12–19, 2024491 (LV)± 4.4%59%38%3% [d]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D) [21] [C]
August 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%56%41%3%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
Rasmussen Reports (R) [22] [D] August 13–20, 2024835 (LV)± 3.0%58%35%7%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
Emerson College [23] August 5–6, 20241,000 (RV) 3.0%55%40%5%
58% [c] 43%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel [17] November 3–4, 2024752 (LV)± 4.0%57%37%2%0%4% [e]
New York Times/Siena College [19] October 5–8, 2024656 (RV)± 4.0%56%38%0%0%6%
656 (LV)56%39%0%0%5%
Remington Research Group (R) [24] [E] September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%56%39%2%3%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings [25] September 30 – October 16, 2024760 (A)± 3.6%52%34%3%1%2%8%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [22] [D] August 13–20, 2024835 (LV)± 3.0%58%31%7%0%0%0%4%
American Pulse Research & Polling [26] [F] August 10–12, 2024538 (LV)± 4.2%52%38%6%0%0%2%8%
Emerson College [23] August 5–6, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%54%39%5%0%0%0%2%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
RMG Research [27] [B] August 6–14, 2024540 (RV)± 4.2%57%39%2%2%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Remington Research Group (R) [28] June 29 – July 1, 2024570 (LV)± 4.0%56%36%8%
Torchlight Strategies (R) [29] [G] June 22–26, 2024649 (RV)± 3.9%51%35%14% [f]
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [30] [H] June 11–13, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%57%37%6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [31] [I] June 3–5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%54%36%10%
John Zogby Strategies [32] [J] April 13–21, 2024301 (LV)59%34%7%
Emerson College [33] [A] February 26 – March 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%56%35%9%
SurveyUSA [34] [F] February 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%51%29%20%
Emerson College [35] October 1–4, 2023447 (RV)± 4.6%49%28%23%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) [36] September 16–19, 20231,451 (RV)54%37%9%
J.L. Partners [37] August 12–17, 2023741 (LV)51%39%10%
Echelon Insights [38] August 31 – September 7, 2022320 (LV)± 6.6%49%36%15%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College [33] [A] February 26 – March 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%28%8%1%1%13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) [36] September 16–19, 20231,451 (RV)51%30%7%12%
49%28%4%19% [g]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [32] [J] April 13–21, 2024301 (LV)50%35%15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [32] [J] April 13–21, 2024301 (LV)58%30%12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
J.L. Partners [37] August 12–17, 2023741 (LV)50%36%14%
Echelon Insights [38] August 31 – September 7, 2022320 (LV)± 6.6%42%35%23%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Montana [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican 352,079 58.39% Increase2.svg 1.47%
Democratic 231,90638.46%Decrease2.svg 2.09%
We the People
11,8251.96%N/A
Libertarian 4,2750.71%Decrease2.svg 1.82%
Green 2,8780.48%N/A
Independent
210.00%N/A
Total votes602,984 100.00% N/A

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana [40]

CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Beaverhead 4,05870.04%1,54326.63%1933.33%2,51543.41%5,794
Big Horn 2,18848.95%2,11247.25%1703.80%761.70%4,470
Blaine 1,52650.55%1,34844.65%1454.80%1785.90%3,019
Broadwater 3,77078.38%88518.40%1553.22%2,88559.98%4,810
Carbon 4,71964.67%2,35332.25%2253.08%2,36632.42%7,297
Carter 76088.99%758.78%192.23%68580.21%854
Cascade 22,41959.65%14,02137.31%1,1433.04%8,39822.34%37,583
Chouteau 1,88564.25%94032.04%1093.71%94532.21%2,934
Custer 4,20872.54%1,38523.88%2083.58%2,82348.66%5,801
Daniels 77881.81%15416.19%192.00%62465.62%951
Dawson 3,62778.20%89419.28%1172.52%2,73358.92%4,638
Deer Lodge 2,32947.82%2,37648.79%1653.39%-47-0.97%4,870
Fallon 1,30386.46%16310.82%412.72%1,14075.64%1,507
Fergus 4,96573.97%1,52222.68%2253.35%3,44351.29%6,712
Flathead 41,39065.55%20,06231.77%1,6892.68%21,32833.78%63,141
Gallatin 32,69546.77%34,93849.98%2,2673.25%-2,243-3.21%69,900
Garfield 75694.50%394.88%50.62%71789.62%800
Glacier 1,93938.18%2,93357.76%2064.06%-994-19.58%5,078
Golden Valley 44085.44%6713.01%81.55%37372.43%515
Granite 1,53770.63%57926.61%602.76%95844.02%2,176
Hill 3,87156.89%2,63438.71%2994.40%1,23718.18%6,804
Jefferson 5,54466.85%2,51630.34%2332.81%3,02836.51%8,293
Judith Basin 1,05177.68%26519.59%372.73%78658.09%1,353
Lake 9,88058.42%6,51038.50%5213.08%3,37019.92%16,911
Lewis and Clark 21,47951.11%19,08545.41%1,4613.48%2,3945.70%42,025
Liberty 75276.11%21421.66%222.23%53854.45%988
Lincoln 8,90975.57%2,61522.18%2652.25%6,29453.39%11,789
Madison 4,61571.42%1,68926.14%1582.44%2,92645.28%6,462
McCone 93186.04%12911.92%222.04%80274.12%1,082
Meagher 88875.77%25621.84%282.39%63253.93%1,172
Mineral 2,04972.33%68924.32%953.35%1,36048.01%2,833
Missoula 27,30637.52%42,90358.95%2,5643.53%-15,597-21.43%72,773
Musselshell 2,55084.66%39613.15%662.19%2,15471.51%3,012
Park 6,12852.30%5,22444.58%3653.12%9047.72%11,717
Petroleum 28487.65%3711.42%30.93%24776.23%324
Phillips 1,75380.08%38517.59%512.33%1,36862.49%2,189
Pondera 1,97269.14%78227.42%983.44%1,19041.72%2,852
Powder River 96387.07%13111.84%121.09%83275.23%1,106
Powell 2,46675.14%71021.63%1063.23%1,75653.51%3,282
Prairie 54679.25%12217.71%213.04%42461.54%689
Ravalli 20,61768.94%8,48528.37%8032.69%12,13240.57%29,905
Richland 4,38782.63%77814.65%1442.72%3,60967.98%5,309
Roosevelt 2,05552.50%1,68042.92%1794.58%3759.58%3,914
Rosebud 2,46666.77%1,09529.65%1323.58%1,37137.12%3,693
Sanders 6,15076.19%1,70521.12%2172.69%4,44555.07%8,072
Sheridan 1,32169.09%50926.62%824.29%81242.47%1,912
Silver Bow 8,11044.50%9,38651.50%7304.00%-1,276-7.00%18,226
Stillwater 4,69979.56%1,05617.88%1512.56%3,64361.68%5,906
Sweet Grass 1,78975.14%52522.05%672.81%1,26453.09%2,381
Teton 2,53370.99%92725.98%1083.03%1,60645.01%3,568
Toole 1,57176.78%41520.28%602.94%1,15656.50%2,046
Treasure 36783.03%5712.90%184.07%31070.13%442
Valley 3,01974.01%93522.92%1253.07%2,08451.09%4,079
Wheatland 84377.62%20919.24%343.14%63458.38%1,086
Wibaux 46384.80%7113.00%122.20%39271.80%546
Yellowstone 50,46062.00%28,39234.88%2,5413.12%22,06827.12%81,393
Totals352,07958.39%231,90638.46%18,9993.15%120,17319.93%602,984
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
2024 Presidential Montana County Swings.svg
2024 Presidential Montana County Flips.svg

By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts. [41] [ self-published source ]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st 54.21%42.70% Ryan Zinke
2nd 63.24%33.60% Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 2%
  3. 1 2 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  5. "Other" with 3%
  6. "Someone else" with 7%
  7. Joe Manchin with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  3. Poll commissioned by AARP
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  5. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
  7. Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
  8. Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  9. Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates
  10. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Wisconsin voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

References

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