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Elections in Montana |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. [1] Though somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana hasn't been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton did so in 1992 nor has it been competitive at this level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. Montana is favored to be carried by the Republican presidential candidate in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [2]
The Montana Democratic primary is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
The Montana Republican primary is scheduled to be held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [3] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [4] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5] | Solid R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [6] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis [7] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [8] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
SurveyUSA [lower-alpha 2] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [upper-alpha 2] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 51% | 30% | 7% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Joe Manchin Independent | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 49% | 28% | 6% | 4% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 50% | 36% | 14% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | 23% |
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