2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Wisconsin voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

A former Blue Wall state and a clearly purple state today, the last presidential Republican to win Wisconsin by double digits was fellow Midwesterner Dwight D. Eisenhower; the last one to win the state twice was Ronald Reagan; and the only presidential candidates to carry the state by double digits after 1956 were Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama (the latter representing neighboring Illinois) in 1996 and 2008, respectively. In 2016, Donald Trump very narrowly won Wisconsin by 0.77% in his surprise sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt, becoming the first Republican since Reagan in his 1984 landslide to win the state's electoral votes; but in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden flipped Wisconsin back into the blue column by a even more narrow 0.63%. Given the state's competitive electoral history coupled with its nearly even partisan lean, Wisconsin is considered to be a crucial battleground in 2024, with all major news organizations marking the state as a tossup. ^[2]

Incumbent president Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3] The Wisconsin Green Party has attained ballot access after not appearing in 2020 ^[4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary

The Wisconsin Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.

Wisconsin Democratic primary, April 2, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	511,845	88.6%	82		82
Uninstructed	48,162	8.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	17,714	3.1%
Total:	577,721	100.0%	82	13	95
Source: [5]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary

The Wisconsin Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.

Wisconsin Republican primary, April 2, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	476,355	79.2%	41
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	76,752	12.8%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	20,112	3.4%
Uninstructed	12,922	2.1%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	9,782	1.6%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	5,196	0.9%
Total:	601,119	100.0%	41		41
Source: [6]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [7]	Tossup	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Tossup	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Tossup	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Tossup	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Tossup	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Tossup	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Fox News	April 11–16, 2024	1,198 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Marquette University Law School	April 3–10, 2024	814 (RV)	± 4.8%	49%	51%	–
		736 (LV)	± 5.0%	49%	51%	–
North Star Opinion Research [upper-alpha 1]	April 6–9, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	45%	10%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	8%
Echelon Insights [upper-alpha 2]	March 12–19, 2024	400 (LV)	± 5.5%	47%	46%	7%
Emerson College/The Hill	March 14–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–14, 2024	697 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	45%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College	February 20–24, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	45%	13%
Kaplan Strategies	February 23, 2024	941 (RV)	± 3.2%	39%	41%	20%
Marquette University Law School	January 24–31, 2024	930 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	49%	2%
		808 (LV)	± 4.2%	49%	50%	1%
Fox News	January 26–30, 2024	1,172 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	47%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	697 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	49%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	681 (RV)	± 4.0%	41%	45%	14%
J.L. Partners	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	45%	41%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	675 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	47%	7%
Emerson College	October 30 - November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	43%	44%	13%
		819 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	45%	10%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.8%	47%	45%	8%
Marquette University Law School	October 26 – November 2, 2023	908 (RV)	± 4.5%	50%	48%	1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	700 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	46%	10%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	532 (RV)	± 4.2%	40%	42%	19%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3]	September 25–26, 2023	673 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	44%	8%
Marquette University Law School	June 8–13, 2023	913 (RV)	± 4.3%	52%	43%	4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	April 17–20, 2023	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	43%	9%
Emerson College	October 27–29, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	43%	13%
Emerson College	September 16–18, 2022	860 (LV)	± 3.3%	45%	44%	11%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 4]	November 11–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	52%	6%
Marquette University Law School	October 26–31, 2021	805 (RV)	± 3.9%	45%	41%	14%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Fox News	April 11–16, 2024	1,198 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	41%	9%	2%	2%	3%
Marquette University Law School	April 3–10, 2024	814 (RV)	± 4.8%	40%	41%	13%	3%	2%	1%
		736 (LV)	± 5.0%	41%	42%	12%	3%	1%	1%
North Star Opinion Research [upper-alpha 5]	April 6–9, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	36%	37%	13%	2%	4%	9%
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	41%	38%	10%	1%	1%	9%
Emerson College/The Hill	March 14–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	6%	1%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–14, 2024	697 (RV)	± 4.0%	39%	41%	10%	1%	1%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	35%	41%	10%	1%	1%	12%
Emerson College	February 20–24, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	41%	7%	1%	1%	13%
Marquette University Law School	January 24–31, 2024	930 (RV)	± 4.2%	37%	40%	16%	2%	4%	1%
		808 (LV)	± 4.2%	39%	41%	13%	2%	4%	1%
Fox News	January 26–30, 2024	1,172 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	42%	7%	1%	2%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	697 (RV)	± 4.0%	35%	43%	10%	0%	2%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	681 (RV)	± 4.0%	34%	40%	10%	1%	3%	13%
J.L. Partners/Daily Mail	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	42%	37%	7%	1%	1%	12% [lower-alpha 2]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	675 (RV)	± 4.0%	36%	38%	13%	2%	11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (LV)	± 4.8	37%	35%	22%	6%

Hypothetical polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.8%	46%	47%	7%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Marquette University Law School	January 24–31, 2024	930 (RV)	± 4.2%	41%	57%	2%
		808 (LV)	± 4.2%	42%	57%	1%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.8%	39%	53%	8%
Marquette University Law School	October 26 – November 2, 2023	908 (RV)	± 4.5%	44%	53%	3%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.8%	44%	48%	8%
Marquette University Law School	October 26 – November 2, 2023	908 (RV)	± 4.5%	48%	50%	1%
Marquette University Law School	June 8–13, 2023	913 (RV)	± 4.3%	49%	47%	4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	April 17–20, 2023	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	45%	10%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Wisconsin
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Someone else" with 12%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
2. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
3. Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
4. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
5. Poll sponsored by League of American Workers

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. D'Andrea, Robert (February 9, 2024). "Green Party candidate will appear on Wisconsin's presidential ballot". WPR. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
5. "Wisconsin Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
6. "Wisconsin Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
7. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.