2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2018 November 5, 2024 2030  
  Senator Ruben Gallego Official Portrait (cropped).jpg Kari Lake by Gage Skidmore 4.jpg
Nominee Ruben Gallego Kari Lake
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,676,3351,595,761
Percentage50.06%47.65%

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona results map by county.svg
2022 Arizona Gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
AZ Senate 2024.svg
Gallego:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Lake:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent

Elected U.S. senator

Ruben Gallego
Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a Senate election was held in Arizona after 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Democratic U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed Democrat-turned-independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term. [1]

Contents

Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the Senate. [2] [1] Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024. [3]

Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the slight favorite to win. [4] [5] Gallego defeated Lake by 2.41 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting between the presidential and senatorial races.

Gallego outperformed Kamala Harris by the fourth largest margin among Democratic Senate candidates in 2024, and the largest margin for a non-incumbent. [6] Gallego received about 93,000 more votes than Kamala Harris, while Lake received about 175,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona.

This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population. [7]

Background

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation. [8] [9] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, [10] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020. [11]

Democratic primary

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. [12] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. [13] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. [14] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election. [15]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus. [2]

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Ruben Gallego

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego
Alexander
Keller
OtherUndecided
Emerson College [68] August 2–4, 2023571 (LV)48%6%6% [b] 40%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kate
Gallego
Ruben
Gallego
Kathy
Hoffman
Regina
Romero
Kyrsten
Sinema
Greg
Stanton
Undecided
Data for Progress (D) [69] January 21–24, 2022673 (LV)± 4.0%74%16%10%
66%17%17%
Noble Predictive Insights [70] November 1–8, 2021229 (RV)± 6.5%47%24%29%
44%24%32%
25%47%28%
Data for Progress (D) [71] [A] October 8–10, 2021467 (LV)± 5.0%9%23%9%19%13%26%
60%25%15%
62%23%15%
55%26%19%
24%59%17%

Results

Democratic primary results [72]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ruben Gallego 498,927 100.0%
Total votes498,927 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Kari Lake

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Mark Lamb

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kari Lake$10,352,741$8,290,053$2,062,687
Mark Lamb$2,059,130$1,795,730$263,400
Source: Federal Election Commission [116]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kari
Lake
Mark
Lamb
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [117] July 22–23, 2024438 (LV)± 4.7%49%38%7% [c] 2%
Noble Predictive Insights [118] May 7–14, 2024364 (RV)± 5.1%46%21%9%25%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [119] [B] February 21–26, 2024469 (LV)± 3.0%55%26%7%12%
Noble Predictive Insights [120] February 6–13, 2024384 (RV)± 5.0%54%21%9% [d] 17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Abe
Hamadeh
Kari
Lake
Mark
Lamb
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Karrin Taylor
Robson
Brian
Wright
OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [121] October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%40%14%10%4%33%
Emerson College [68] August 2–4, 2023667 (LV)± 3.7%42%11%2%7%2%28%
J.L. Partners [122] April 10–12, 2023550 (LV)± 4.2%4%38%8%3%7%10%2%29%

Results

Results by county:
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Lake
50-60%
60-70%
Lamb
50-60%
60-70% 2024 AZ SEN GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Lake
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Lamb
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results [72]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kari Lake 409,339 55.28%
Republican Mark Lamb 292,88839.56%
Republican Elizabeth Jean Reye38,2085.16%
Total votes740,435 100.0%

Green primary

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns. [123] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party. [124]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party [124]

Eliminated in primary

  • Mike Norton, nonprofit executive [125]
  • Arturo Hernandez [75]

Endorsements

Eduardo Heredia Quintana

Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mike Norton$84,401$76,692$7,708
Source: Federal Election Commission [116]

Results

Green primary results [72]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in)282 49.47%
Green Mike Norton18031.58%
Green Arturo Hernandez10818.95%
Total votes570 100.0%

Independents

Candidates

Declined

Endorsements

Kyrsten Sinema (declined to run)

U.S. senators

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema$17,047,387$7,065,565$10,153,343
Source: Federal Election Commission [116]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Elections Daily [129] Likely D (flip)October 9, 2024
CNalysis [130] Likely D (flip)October 15, 2024
RealClearPolitics [131] Lean D (flip)October 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [132] Lean D (flip)September 6, 2024
Inside Elections [4] Lean D (flip)October 10, 2024
The Cook Political Report [5] Lean D (flip)September 12, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [133] Lean D (flip)September 20, 2024
Split Ticket [134] Lean D (flip)October 23, 2024
538 [135] Likely D (flip)October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Ruben Gallego (D)

Executive branch officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors

Organizations

Kari Lake (R)

U.S. Senators

Governors

Local officials

Organizations

Debates

2024 Arizona U.S. Senate election debate
No.DateHostModeratorsLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
GallegoLake
1October 10, 2024Clean ElectionsSteve Goldstein
Nohelani Graf
[150] PP

Post-primary fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ruben Gallego (D)$56,843,786$55,360,823$2,759,538
Kari Lake (R)$21,396,539$18,239,291$3,157,247
Source: Federal Election Commission [116]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Undecided
[e]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight [151] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.4%45.3%5.3%Gallego +4.1%
RealClearPolitics [152] October 20 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.8%45.6%5.4%Gallego +3.2%
270toWin [153] October 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.5%44.3%6.2%Gallego +5.2%
TheHill/DDHQ [154] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.3%45.8%4.9%Gallego +3.5%
Average49.3%45.3%5.4%Gallego +4.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [155] November 3–4, 2024875 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2% [f] 2%
Victory Insights (R) [156] November 2–3, 2024750 (LV)50%47%3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [157] November 1–3, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%49%49%2%
Patriot Polling (R) [158] November 1–3, 2024801 (RV)± 3.0%51%48%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [159] November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%1%3%
AtlasIntel [160] November 1–2, 2024967 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%2% [f] 2%
Emerson College [161] [C] October 30 – November 2, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%50%45%5%
New York Times/Siena College [162] October 25 – November 2, 20241,025 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%4%
1,025 (RV)± 3.4%51%43%6%
Morning Consult [163] October 23 – November 1, 2024666 (LV)± 4.0%50%42%8%
AtlasIntel [164] October 30–31, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%2% [f] 1%
OnMessage (R) [165] October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)48%48%4%
YouGov [166] [D] October 25–31, 2024856 (LV)± 4.4%49%45%6%
880 (RV)49%44%7%
ActiVote [167] October 5–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%
Noble Predictive Insights [168] October 28–30, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%48%44%4% [g] 3%
Data for Progress (D) [169] October 25–30, 20241,079 (LV)± 3.0%50%45%2% [h] 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [170] [E] October 25–29, 2024803 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%4% [i] 4%
AtlasIntel [171] October 25–29, 20241,458 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2% [f] 2%
Mitchell Research & Communications [172] October 28, 2024610 (LV)± 4.0%50%46%3% [j] 5%
50%47%3%
Data Orbital (R) [173] October 26–28, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%45%45%5% [k] 6%
RABA Research [174] October 25–27, 2024589 (RV)± 4.0%49%34%8% [l] 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [175] October 24–26, 20241,094 (LV)± 2.9%50%46%4%
CNN/SRSS [176] October 21–26, 2024781 (LV)± 4.4%51%43%6% [m] 1%
Marist College [177] October 17–22, 20241,193 (LV)± 3.7%53%45%2%
1,329 (RV)± 3.5%53%45%1%
HighGround Public Affairs [178] October 19–20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%42%2% [n] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [179] October 19–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%1% [o] 3%
University of Arizona/Truedot [180] October 12–20, 2024846 (RV)± 3.4%51%36%2% [p] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [181] [F] October 16–18, 2024691 (LV)± 3.5%48%41%5% [q] 7%
AtlasIntel [182] October 12–17, 20241,440 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2% [f] 2%
CBS News/YouGov [183] October 11–16, 20241,403 (LV)± 3.3%54%45%1% [r]
Morning Consult [163] October 6–15, 2024653 (LV)± 3.0%52%40%3%5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [184] [F] October 12–14, 20241,141 (LV)± 2.7%47%42%4% [s] 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [185] October 10–13, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%48%44%3% [t] 6%
New York Times/Siena College [186] October 7–10, 2024808 (LV)± 3.8%48%41%10%
808 (RV)± 3.8%48%39%12%
ActiVote [187] September 8 – October 10, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%
Emerson College [188] [C] October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%43%7%
SoCal Strategies (R) [189] [G] October 5–7, 2024735 (LV)51%39%10%
RMG Research [190] [H] September 30 – October 2, 2024783 (LV)± 3.5%50%41%4% [u] 5%
52% [v] 42%1% [r] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [191] [F] September 27 – October 2, 2024555 (LV)± 3.9%48%42%3% [w] 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D) [192] [I]
September 24 – October 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%44%1% [x] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [193] September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%50%43%1% [o] 6%
HighGround Public Affairs [194] [J] September 26–29, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%51%41%2% [n] 5%
National Research Inc. [195] [K] September 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%42%2% [h] 8%
Emerson College [196] [L] September 27–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.2%52%41%7%
AtlasIntel [197] September 20–25, 2024946 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2% [f] 2%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [198] [M] September 19–25, 2024409 (LV)51%39%4% [u] 6%
54%41%5%
Fox News [199] September 20–24, 2024764 (LV)± 3.5%55%42%1% [y] 1%
1,021 (RV)± 3.0%56%42%1% [y] 1%
Suffolk University [200] [N] September 19–24, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%41%5% [z] 8%
Marist College [201] September 19–24, 20241,264 (LV)± 3.8%54%44%1%
1,416 (RV)± 3.6%53%44%2%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [202] [E] September 19–22, 20241,030 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%4% [i] 4%
New York Times/Siena College [203] September 17–21, 2024713 (LV)± 4.1%49%43%8%
713 (RV)± 4.1%50%41%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [204] [F] September 16–19, 2024789 (LV)± 3.2%46%41%3% [w] 9%
Emerson College [205] [C] September 15–18, 2024868 (LV)± 3.3%48%42%10%
Morning Consult [163] September 9–18, 2024862 (LV)± 3.0%53%39%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [206] September 11–12, 20241,088 (LV)± 2.9%47%43%4% [i] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [207] [F] September 6–9, 2024765 (LV)± 3.3%48%42%2% [aa] 8%
Morning Consult [163] August 30 – September 8, 2024901 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%3%7%
YouGov [208] [D] August 23 – September 3, 2024900 (RV)± 4.2%50%42%9%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [209] August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%49%45%2% [ab] 4%
University of Arizona/Truedot [210] August 28–31, 20241,155 (RV)47%36%4% [ac] 13%
CNN/SRSS [211] August 23–29, 2024682 (LV)± 4.7%47%44%8% [ad]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [212] [F] August 25–28, 2024530 (LV)± 4.0%42%37%3% [ae] 17%
Emerson College [213] [C] August 25–28, 2024720 (LV)± 3.6%49%42%9%
Fox News [214] August 23–26, 20241,014 (RV)± 3.0%56%41%2% [af] 1%
Noble Predictive Insights [215] August 12–16, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%47%40%13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [216] [F] August 12–15, 2024592 (LV)± 3.7%44%39%4% [ag] 13%
New York Times/Siena College [217] August 8–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.1%49%41%10%
677 (LV)± 4.4%51%42%8%
WPA Intelligence (R) [218] [O] August 11–13, 2014600 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%3% [ah] 3%
Peak Insights (R) [219] [P] July 31 – August 5, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%46%46%8%
HighGround Public Affairs [220] July 30 – August 5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%39%3% [ai] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [221] [F] July 31 – August 3, 2024567 (LV)± 3.8%42%36%22%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [222] [M] July 26 – August 2, 2024435 (LV)51%42%7%
July 30, 2024Primary elections held
Emerson College [223] [Q] July 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%46%42%12%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D) [224] [R] July 19–20, 2024736 (RV)49%42%9%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [225] [S] July 5–12, 20241,101 (LV)± 3.0%44%41%7% [aj] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [226] [T] July 10–11, 2024596 (RV)50%47%4%
J.L. Partners (R) [227] [U] July 10–11, 2024513 (LV)± 4.3%43%44%3%
YouGov [228] [D] July 4–12, 2024900 (RV)± 3.9%48%41%2%9%
793 (LV)49%42%2%8%
Expedition Strategies [229] [V] June 24 – July 8, 2024268 (LV)49%45%7%
Remington Research Group (R) [230] [W] June 29 – July 1, 2024638 (LV)47%47%6%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [231] [X] June 17–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%38%9% [ak] 13%
Emerson College [232] [C] June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%41%14%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [233] June 11–13, 2024750 (RV)± 4.0%44%41%5% [al] 10%
40%39%7% [am] 14%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D) [234] [I]
May 28 – June 4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%7%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [235] May 19–21, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%44%38%18%
501 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%13%
CBS News/YouGov [236] May 10–16, 20241,214 (RV)± 3.5%49%36%15%
Noble Predictive Insights [118] May 7–14, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%46%36%18%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [237] [M] May 6–13, 2024527 (LV)± 4.3%46%41%13%
New York Times/Siena College [238] April 28 – May 9, 2024626 (RV)± 4.0%45%41%14%
626 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%11%
Data Orbital (R) [239] April 27–29, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%48%44%8%
Emerson College [240] [C] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%43%12%
RABA Research [241] March 28–31, 2024503 (RV)± 4.4%36%28%13% [an] 23%
Emerson College [242] March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%40%16%
March 5, 2024Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election.
Rasmussen Reports (R) [243] [B] February 21–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%42%45%4% [ao] 9%
Emerson College [244] [C] February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%39%15%
Noble Predictive Insights [120] February 6–13, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.1%47%37%16%
J.L. Partners (R) [245] [U] January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)44%46%10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [246] [Y] January 5–6, 2024590 (V)± 4.0%45%46%9%
Cygnal (R) [247] October 24–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [248] [Z] October 24, 2023± 4.4%49%44%7%
National Research Inc. (R) [249] October 8–9, 2023400 (LV)± 4.9%44%44%12%
Public Policy Polling (D) [250] [AA] October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%48%43%9%
Noble Predictive Insights [251] July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%45%35%20%
Noble Predictive Insights [252] January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%43%33%24%
Normington Petts (D) [253] [AB] January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [254] [AA] December 21, 2022650 (V)± 3.8%48%47%5%
Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (R) [243] [B] February 21–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%33%37%21%2% [ap] 7%
Emerson College [244] [C] February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%36%30%21%13%
Noble Predictive Insights [120] February 6–13, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.1%34%31%23%12%
J.L. Partners (R) [245] [U] January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)39%40%13%8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [246] [Y] January 5–6, 2024590 (V)± 4.0%36%35%17%12%
VCreek/AMG (R) [255] [AC] December 1–8, 2023694 (LV)± 3.7%35%41%16%1% [r] 7%
Tulchin Research (D) [256] [AD] November 13–20, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%39%34%17%6% [aq] 4%
Noble Predictive Insights [257] October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%39%33%29%
Cygnal (R) [247] October 24–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%36%37%15%11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [248] [Z] October 24, 2023± 4.4%41%37%17%5%
National Research Inc. (R) [249] October 8–9, 2023400 (LV)± 4.9%33%37%19%10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [250] [AA] October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%41%36%15%8%
Noble Predictive Insights [251] July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%34%25%26%15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [258] [AA] April 18–19, 2023559 (V)42%35%14%9%
Noble Predictive Insights [252] January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%34%26%19%21%
Normington Petts (D) [253] [AB] January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%36%36%24%
Blueprint Polling (D) [259] January 5–8, 2023618 (V)± 3.9%32%36%14%19%
Public Policy Polling (D) [254] [AA] December 21, 2022678 (V)± 3.8%40%41%13%6%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Generic
independent
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group [260] March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%41%41%10%8%

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Doug
Ducey (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights [252] January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%38%34%28%
32%27%17%23%
Normington Petts (D) [253] [AB] January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%37%31%27%5%

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Blake
Masters (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [250] [AA] October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%41%31%17%11%
Noble Predictive Insights [251] July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%44%36%20%
32%24%28%16%
Noble Predictive Insights [252] January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%43%32%26%
33%24%22%21%

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Karrin Taylor
Robson (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights [252] January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%36%32%32%
31%24%21%25%

Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Mark
Lamb (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights [121] October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%36%32%32%0%
Public Policy Polling (D) [250] [AA] October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%40%31%16%13%
Emerson College [68] August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%42%42%16%
36%29%21%15%
Noble Predictive Insights [251] July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%40%36%24%
33%25%24%18%
Public Policy Polling (D) [258] [AA] April 18–19, 2023559 (V)43%33%15%9%

Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Jim
Lamon (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [258] [AA] April 18–19, 2023559 (V)43%27%16%14%

Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Brian
Wright (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Emerson College [68] August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%41%38%21%
37%25%26%12%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona [261]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Ruben Gallego 1,676,335 50.06% +0.10%
Republican Kari Lake 1,595,76147.65%+0.04%
Green Eduardo Heredia Quintana75,8682.27%–0.14%
Write-in 8500.02%
Total votes3,348,814 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Independent

On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona. [262] On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well. [7]

By congressional district

Gallego won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans. [263]

DistrictGallegoLakeRepresentative elected
1st 52%47% David Schweikert
2nd 45%53% Eli Crane
3rd 73%24% Ruben Gallego (118th Congress)
Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress)
4th 56%41% Greg Stanton
5th 43%55% Andy Biggs
6th 51%46% Juan Ciscomani
7th 63%33% Raúl Grijalva
8th 45%53% Debbie Lesko (118th Congress)
Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress)
9th 38%60% Paul Gosar
2024 Arizona senate county swing.svg
2024 Arizona senate county trend.svg

By county

County [264] Ruben Gallego
Democratic
Kari Lake
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Apache 19,90162.46%11,28335.41%6792.13%8,61827.05%31,863
Cochise 23,34740.17%33,18457.10%1,5852.73%−9,837−16.93%58,116
Coconino 42,92461.77%24,82535.73%1,7362.50%18,09926.05%69,485
Gila 9,33034.14%17,43363.79%5652.07%−8,103−29.65%27,328
Graham 4,23528.15%10,38569.27%3733.59%−6,150−41.02%14,993
Greenlee 1,10233.56%2,07863.28%3733.17%−976−29.72%3,284
La Paz 2,29230.52%4,99866.56%2192.92%−2,706−36.04%7,509
Maricopa 1,045,76651.50%940,46546.31%44,4172.19%105,3015.19%2,030,648
Mohave 26,57824.50%79,49473.28%2,4152.23%−52,916−48.78%108,487
Navajo 22,17343.93%27,21853.92%1,0852.15%−5,045−9.99%50,476
Pima 298,75159.07%193,02138.17%13,9702.76%105,73020.91%505,742
Pinal 86,67441.88%115,59555.86%4,6722.26%−28,921−13.98%206,941
Santa Cruz 11,98663.23%6,37033.61%5993.16%5,61629.62%18,955
Yavapai 52,07735.22%93,20063.03%2,5921.75%−41,123−27.81%147,869
Yuma 29,19943.50%36,21253.95%1,7072.54%−7,013−10.45%67,118
Totals1,676,33550.06%1,595,76147.65%76,6182.29%80,5742.41%3,348,814

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 6%
  3. Elizabeth Jean Reye with 3%
  4. Brian Wright with 6%; George Nicholson with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  7. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%
  8. 1 2 Quintana (G) with 2%
  9. 1 2 3 "Other" with 4%
  10. Quintana (G) with 1%
  11. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%; "I did not vote on US Senate" with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 8%
  13. "Other" with 5%; "Neither" with 1%
  14. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 1%
  16. "Someone Else" with 2%
  17. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  18. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 1%
  19. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  20. "Other" with 3%
  21. 1 2 "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  22. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  23. 1 2 "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%
  24. "Other" with 1%
  25. 1 2 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  26. Quintana (G) with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
  27. "Other" and Quintana (G) with 1%
  28. "Another candidate" with 2%
  29. "Someone Else" with 4%
  30. "Other" with 6%; "Neither" with 2%
  31. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  32. "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  33. "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  34. Norton (G) with 3%
  35. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. "Other" with 7%
  37. Quintana (G) with 9%
  38. "Other" with 5%
  39. Hernandez (G) with 4%; "Other" with 3%
  40. "Someone else" with 13%
  41. "Wouldn't vote" with 4%
  42. "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  43. "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Bull Moose Project.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  4. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  7. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  8. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  9. 1 2 Poll commissioned by AARP
  10. Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
  11. Poll sponsored by Democracy Defense Project
  12. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  13. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  14. Poll sponsored by USA Today
  15. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth, which has endorsed Lake.
  16. Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Lake's campaign.
  17. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  18. Poll sponsored by the Clean & Prosperous America PAC.
  19. Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  20. Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  21. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Lake's campaign.
  22. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  23. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  24. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  25. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
  26. 1 2 Poll sponsored by NRSC.
  27. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Poll sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  28. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
  29. Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
  30. Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.

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