2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
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  Ruben Gallego official portrait (cropped).jpg Kari Lake by Gage Skidmore 4.jpg
Nominee Ruben Gallego Kari Lake
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,676,3351,595,761
Percentage50.06%47.65%
2024 United States Senate election in Arizona results map by county.svg
County results
Gallego:     50–60%     60–70%
Lake:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent

Elected U.S. senator

Ruben Gallego
Democratic

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in Arizona after 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term. [1]

Contents

Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the senate. [2] [1] Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024. [3]

Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the slight favorite to win. [4] [5] Gallego defeated Lake by 2.4 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting for Gallego and Trump. This marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona. This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988.

Gallego will also be Arizona's first Latino U.S. Senator. [6]

Background

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation. [7] [8] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, [9] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020. [10]

Democratic primary

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. [11] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. [12] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. [13] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election. [14]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus. [2]

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Ruben Gallego

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego		Alexander
Keller		OtherUndecided
Emerson College [67] August 2–4, 2023571 (LV)–48%6%6% [b] 40%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kate
Gallego		Ruben
Gallego		Kathy
Hoffman		Regina
Romero		Kyrsten
Sinema		Greg
Stanton		Undecided
Data for Progress (D) [68] January 21–24, 2022673 (LV)± 4.0%–74%––16%–10%
–66%––17%–17%
OH Predictive Insights [69] November 1–8, 2021229 (RV)± 6.5%–47%––24%–29%
––44%–24%–32%
––––25%47%28%
Data for Progress (D) [70] [A] October 8–10, 2021467 (LV)± 5.0%9%23%–9%19%13%26%
60%–––25%–15%
–62%––23%–15%
–––55%26%–19%
––––24%59%17%

Results

Democratic primary results [71]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ruben Gallego 498,927 100.0%
Total votes498,927 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Kari Lake

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Mark Lamb

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kari Lake$10,352,741$8,290,053$2,062,687
Mark Lamb$2,059,130$1,795,730$263,400
Source: Federal Election Commission [115]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Kari
Lake		Mark
Lamb		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [116] July 22–23, 2024438 (LV)± 4.65%49%38%7% [c] 2%
Noble Predictive Insights [117] May 7–14, 2024364 (RV)± 5.14%46%21%9%25%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [118] [B] February 21–26, 2024469 (LV)± 3.0%55%26%7%12%
Noble Predictive Insights [119] February 6–13, 2024384 (RV)± 5.0%54%21%9% [d] 17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Abe
Hamadeh		Kari
Lake		Mark
Lamb		Jim
Lamon		Blake
Masters		Karrin Taylor
Robson		Brian
Wright		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights [120] October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%–40%14%–10%–4%–33%
Emerson College [67] August 2–4, 2023667 (LV)± 3.7%–42%11%2%7%–2%–28%
J.L. Partners [121] April 10–12, 2023550 (LV)± 4.2%4%38%8%3%7%10%–2%29%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Lake 50-60% 60-70% Lamb 50-60% 60-70% 2024 AZ SEN GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Lake
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Lamb
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results [71]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kari Lake 409,339 55.28%
Republican Mark Lamb 292,88839.56%
Republican Elizabeth Jean Reye38,2085.16%
Total votes740,435 100.0%

Green primary

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns. [122] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party. [123]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party [123]

Eliminated in primary

  • Mike Norton, nonprofit executive [124]
  • Arturo Hernandez [74]

Endorsements

Eduardo Heredia Quintana

Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mike Norton$84,401$76,692$7,708
Source: Federal Election Commission [115]

Results

Green primary results [71]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in)282 49.47%
Green Mike Norton18031.58%
Green Arturo Hernandez10818.95%
Total votes570 100.0%

Independents

Candidates

Declined

Endorsements

Kyrsten Sinema (declined to run)

U.S. senators

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema$17,047,387$7,065,565$10,153,343
Source: Federal Election Commission [115]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Elections Daily [128] Likely D (flip)October 9, 2024
CNalysis [129] Likely D (flip)October 15, 2024
RealClearPolitics [130] Lean D (flip)October 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [131] Lean D (flip)September 6, 2024
Inside Elections [4] Lean D (flip)October 10, 2024
The Cook Political Report [5] Lean D (flip)September 12, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [132] Likely D (flip)September 20, 2024
Split Ticket [133] Lean D (flip)October 23, 2024
538 [134] Likely D (flip)October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Ruben Gallego (D)

Executive branch officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors

Organizations

Kari Lake (R)

Governors

Local officials

Organizations

Debates

2024 Arizona U.S. Senate election debate
No.DateHostModeratorsLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
GallegoLake
1October 10, 2024Clean ElectionsSteve Goldstein
Nohelani Graf		 [148] PP

Post-primary fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ruben Gallego (D)$56,843,786$55,360,823$2,759,538
Kari Lake (R)$21,396,539$18,239,291$3,157,247
Source: Federal Election Commission [115]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Undecided
[e] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight [149] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.4%45.3%5.3%Gallego +4.1%
RealClearPolitics [150] October 20 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.8%45.6%5.4%Gallego +3.2%
270toWin [151] October 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.5%44.3%6.2%Gallego +5.2%
TheHill/DDHQ [152] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.3%45.8%4.9%Gallego +3.5%
Average49.3%45.3%5.4%Gallego +4.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [153] November 3–4, 2024875 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2% [f] 2%
Victory Insights (R) [154] November 2–3, 2024750 (LV)–50%47%–3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [155] November 1–3, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%49%49%–2%
Patriot Polling (R) [156] November 1–3, 2024801 (RV)± 3.0%51%48%––
InsiderAdvantage (R) [157] November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%1%3%
AtlasIntel [158] November 1–2, 2024967 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%2% [f] 2%
Emerson College [159] [C] October 30 – November 2, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%50%45%–5%
NYT/Siena College [160] October 25 – November 2, 20241,025 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%–4%
1,025 (RV)± 3.4%51%43%–6%
Morning Consult [161] October 23 – November 1, 2024666 (LV)± 4.0%50%42%–8%
AtlasIntel [162] October 30–31, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%2% [f] 1%
OnMessage (R) [163] October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)–48%48%–4%
YouGov [164] [D] October 25–31, 2024856 (LV)± 4.4%49%45%–6%
880 (RV)49%44%–7%
ActiVote [165] October 5–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––
Noble Predictive Insights [166] October 28–30, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%48%44%4% [g] 3%
Data for Progress (D) [167] October 25–30, 20241,079 (LV)± 3.0%50%45%2% [h] 4%
AtlasIntel [168] October 25–29, 20241,458 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2% [f] 2%
Mitchell Research & Communications [169] October 28, 2024610 (LV)± 3.968%50%46%3% [i] 5%
50%47%–3%
Data Orbital (R) [170] October 26–28, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%45%45%5% [j] 6%
RABA Research [171] October 25–27, 2024589 (RV)± 4.0%49%34%8% [k] 9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [172] October 24–26, 20241,094 (LV)± 2.9%50%46%–4%
CNN/SRSS [173] October 21–26, 2024781 (LV)± 4.4%51%43%6% [l] 1%
Marist College [174] October 17–22, 20241,193 (LV)± 3.7%53%45%–2%
1,329 (RV)± 3.5%53%45%–1%
HighGround Public Affairs [175] October 19–20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%42%2% [m] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [176] October 19–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%1% [n] 3%
University of Arizona [177] October 12–20, 2024846(RV)± 3.37%51%36%2% [o] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [178] [E] October 16–18, 2024691 (LV)± 3.5%48%41%5% [p] 7%
AtlasIntel [179] October 12–17, 20241,440 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2% [f] 2%
CBS News/YouGov [180] October 11–16, 20241,403 (LV)± 3.3%54%45%1% [q] –
Morning Consult [181] October 6–15, 2024653 (LV)± 3.0%52%40%3%5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [182] [E] October 12–14, 20241,141 (LV)± 2.7%47%42%4% [r] 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [183] October 10–13, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%48%44%3% [s] 6%
NYT/Siena College [184] October 7–10, 2024808 (LV)± 3.8%48%41%–10%
808 (RV)± 3.8%48%39%–12%
ActiVote [185] September 8 – October 10, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%––
Emerson College [186] [C] October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%43%–7%
SoCal Strategies (R) [187] [F] October 5–7, 2024735 (LV)–51%39%–10%
RMG Research [188] [G] September 30 – October 2, 2024783 (LV)± 3.5%52%42%1% [t] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [189] [E] September 27 – October 2, 2024555 (LV)± 3.9%48%42%3% [u] 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D) [190] [H] 		September 24 – October 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%44%1% [v] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [191] September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%50%43%1% [n] 6%
HighGround Public Affairs [192] [I] September 26–29, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%51%41%2% [m] 5%
National Research Inc. [193] [J] September 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%42%2% [h] 8%
Emerson College [194] September 27–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.2%52%41%–7%
AtlasIntel [195] September 20–25, 2024946 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2% [f] 2%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [196] [K] September 19–25, 2024409 (LV)–51%39%4% [w] 6%
54%41%–5%
Fox News [197] September 20–24, 2024764 (LV)± 3.5%55%42%1% [x] 1%
1,021 (RV)± 3.0%56%42%1% [x] 1%
Suffolk University [198] [L] September 19–24, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%41%5% [y] 8%
Marist College [199] September 19–24, 20241,264 (LV)± 3.8%54%44%–1%
1,416 (RV)± 3.6%53%44%–2%
NYT/Siena College [200] September 17–21, 2024713 (LV)± 4.1%49%43%–8%
713 (RV)± 4.1%50%41%–9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [201] [E] September 16–19, 2024789 (LV)± 3.2%46%41%3% [u] 9%
Emerson College [202] [C] September 15–18, 2024868 (LV)± 3.3%48%42%–10%
Morning Consult [161] September 9–18, 2024862 (LV)± 3.0%53%39%–8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [203] September 11–12, 20241,088 (LV)± 2.9%47%43%4% [z] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [204] [E] September 6–9, 2024765 (LV)± 3.3%48%42%2% [aa] 8%
Morning Consult [205] August 30 – September 8, 2024901 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%3%7%
YouGov [206] [D] August 23 – September 3, 2024900 (RV)± 4.2%50%42%–9%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [207] August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%49%45%2% [ab] 4%
University of Arizona [208] August 28–31, 20241,155 (RV)–47%36%4% [ac] 13%
CNN/SRSS [209] August 23–29, 2024682 (LV)± 4.7%47%44%8% [ad] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [210] [E] August 25–28, 2024530 (LV)± 4.0%42%37%3% [ae] 17%
Emerson College [211] [C] August 25–28, 2024720 (LV)± 3.6%49%42%–9%
Fox News [212] August 23–26, 20241,014 (RV)± 3.0%56%41%2% [af] 1%
Noble Predictive Insights [213] August 12–16, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%47%40%–13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [214] [E] August 12–15, 2024592 (LV)± 3.7%44%39%4% [ag] 13%
NYT/Siena College [215] August 8–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.1%49%41%–10%
677 (LV)± 4.4%51%42%–8%
WPA Intelligence (R) [216] [M] August 11–13, 2014600 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%3% [ah] 3%
Peak Insights (R) [217] [N] July 31 – August 5, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%46%46%–8%
HighGround Public Affairs [218] July 30 – August 5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%39%3% [ai] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [219] [E] July 31 – August 3, 2024567 (LV)± 3.8%42%36%–22%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [220] [K] July 26 – August 2, 2024435 (LV)–51%42%–7%
July 30, 2024Primary elections held
Emerson College [221] [O] July 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%46%42%–12%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D) [222] [P] July 19–20, 2014736 (RV)–49%42%–9%
Public Policy Polling (D) [223] [Q] July 10–11, 2024596 (RV)–50%47%–4%
J.L. Partners (R) [224] [R] July 10–11, 2024513 (LV)± 4.3%43%44%–3%
YouGov [225] [D] July 4–12, 2024900 (RV)± 3.9%48%41%2%9%
793 (LV)–49%42%2%8%
Expedition Strategies [226] [S] June 24 – July 8, 2024268 (LV)–49%45%–7%
Remington Research Group (R) [227] [T] June 29 – July 1, 2024638 (LV)–47%47%–6%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [228] [U] June 17–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%38%9% [aj] 13%
Emerson College [229] [C] June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%41%–14%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [230] June 11–13, 2024750 (RV)± 4.0%44%41%–15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D) [231] [H] 		May 28 – June 4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%–7%
Mainstreet Research/FAU [232] May 19–21, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%44%38%–18%
501 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%–13%
CBS News/YouGov [233] May 10–16, 20241,214 (RV)± 3.5%49%36%–15%
Noble Predictive Insights [117] May 7–14, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%46%36%–18%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [234] [K] May 6–13, 2024527 (LV)± 4.3%46%41%–13%
NYT/Siena College [235] April 28 – May 9, 2024626 (RV)± 4.0%45%41%–14%
626 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%–11%
Data Orbital (R) [236] April 27–29, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%48%44%–8%
Emerson College [237] [C] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%43%–12%
RABA Research [238] April 9, 2024503 (RV)± 4.4%36%28%13% [ak] 23%
Emerson College [239] March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%40%–16%
March 5, 2024Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election.
Rasmussen Reports (R) [240] [B] February 21–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%42%45%–13%
Emerson College [241] [C] February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%39%–15%
Noble Predictive Insights [119] February 6–13, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.1%47%37%–16%
J.L. Partners (R) [242] [R] January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)–44%46%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [243] [V] January 5–6, 2024590 (V)± 4.0%45%46%–9%
Cygnal (R) [244] October 24–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%–11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [245] [W] October 24, 2023–± 4.4%49%44%–7%
National Research Inc. (R) [246] October 8–9, 2023400 (LV)± 4.9%44%44%–12%
Public Policy Polling (D) [247] [X] October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%48%43%–9%
Noble Predictive Insights [248] July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%45%35%–20%
OH Predictive Insights [249] January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%43%33%–24%
Normington Petts (D) [250] [Y] January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%–5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [251] [X] December 21, 2022650 (V)± 3.8%48%47%–5%
Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (R) [240] [B] February 21–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%33%37%21%2% [al] 7%
Emerson College [241] [C] February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%36%30%21%–13%
Noble Predictive Insights [119] February 6–13, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.1%34%31%23%–12%
J.L. Partners (R) [242] [R] January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)–39%40%13%–8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [243] [V] January 5–6, 2024590 (V)± 4.0%36%35%17%–12%
VCreek/AMG (R) [252] [Z] December 1–8, 2023694 (LV)± 3.7%35%41%16%1% [am] 7%
Tulchin Research (D) [253] [AA] November 13–20, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%39%34%17%6% [an] 4%
Noble Predictive Insights [254] October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%39%33%29%––
Cygnal (R) [244] October 24–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%36%37%15%–11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [245] [W] October 24, 2023–± 4.4%41%37%17%–5%
National Research Inc. (R) [246] October 8–9, 2023400 (LV)± 4.9%33%37%19%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [247] [X] October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%41%36%15%–8%
Noble Predictive Insights [248] July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%34%25%26%–15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [255] [X] April 18–19, 2023559 (V)–42%35%14%–9%
OH Predictive Insights [249] January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%34%26%19%–21%
Normington Petts (D) [250] [Y] January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%36%36%24%––
Blueprint Polling (D) [256] January 5–8, 2023618 (V)± 3.9%32%36%14%–19%
Public Policy Polling (D) [251] [X] December 21, 2022678 (V)± 3.8%40%41%13%–6%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Generic
independent		Undecided
Bullfinch Group [257] March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%41%41%10%8%

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Doug
Ducey (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights [258] 		January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%38%34%–28%
32%27%17%23%
Normington Petts (D) [250] [Y] January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%37%31%27%5%

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Blake
Masters (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [247] [X] October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%41%31%17%11%
Noble Predictive Insights [248] July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%44%36%–20%
32%24%28%16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights [258] 		January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%43%32%–26%
33%24%22%21%

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Karrin Taylor
Robson (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
OH Predictive Insights [258] 		January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%36%32%–32%
31%24%21%25%

Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Mark
Lamb (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights [120] October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%36%32%32%0%
Public Policy Polling (D) [247] [X] October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%40%31%16%13%
Emerson College [67] August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%42%42%–16%
36%29%21%15%
Noble Predictive Insights [248] July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%40%36%–24%
33%25%24%18%
Public Policy Polling (D) [255] [X] April 18–19, 2023559 (V)–43%33%15%9%

Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Jim
Lamon (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [255] [X] April 18–19, 2023559 (V)–43%27%16%14%

Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Brian
Wright (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Emerson College [67] August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%41%38%–21%
37%25%26%12%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona [259]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Ruben Gallego 1,676,335 50.06% +0.10%
Republican Kari Lake 1,595,76147.65%+0.04%
Green Eduardo Heredia Quintana75,8682.27%–0.14%
Write-in 8500.02%–
Total votes3,348,814 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Independent

On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona. [260] On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well. [6]

By congressional district

Gallego won 5 of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans. [261]

DistrictGallegoLakeRepresentative elected
1st 52%47% David Schweikert
2nd 45%53% Eli Crane
3rd 73%24% Ruben Gallego (118th Congress)
Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress)
4th 56%41% Greg Stanton
5th 43%55% Andy Biggs
6th 51%46% Juan Ciscomani
7th 63%33% Raúl Grijalva
8th 45%53% Debbie Lesko (118th Congress)
Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress)
9th 38%60% Paul Gosar

Results by County

County [262] Ruben Gallego
nDemocratic		Kari Lake
Republica		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Apache 19,90162.46%11,28335.41%6792.13%8,61827.05%31,863
Cochise 23,34740.17%33,18457.10%1,5852.73%−9,837−16.93%58,116
Coconino 42,92461.774%24,82535.727%1,7362.499%18,09926.047%69,485
Gila 9,33034.14%17,43363.79%5652.07%−8,103−29.65%27,328
Graham 4,23528.15%10,38569.27%3733.59%−6,150−41.02%14,993
Greenlee 1,10233.557%2,07863.277%3733.166%−976−29.720%3,284
La Paz 2,29230.52%4,99866.56%2192.92%−2,706−36.04%7,509
Maricopa 1,045,76651.50%940,46546.31%44,4172.19%105,3015.19%2,030,648
Mohave 26,57824.499%79,49473.275%2,4152.226%−52,916−48.776%108,487
Navajo 22,17343.93%27,21853.92%1,0852.15%−5,045−9.99%50,476
Pima 298,75159.072%193,02138.166%13,9702.762%105,73020.906%505,742
Pinal 86,67441.88%115,59555.86%4,6722.26%−28,921−13.98%206,941
Santa Cruz 11,98663.23%6,37033.61%5993.16%5,61629.62%18,955
Yavapai 52,07735.22%93,20063.03%2,5921.75%−41,123−27.81%147,869
Yuma 36,21243.50%36,21253.95%1,7072.54%−7,013−10.45%67,118
Totals1,676,33550.06%1,595,76147.65%76,6182.29%60,5745.51%3,348,814

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Someone else" with 6%"
  3. ↑ Elizabeth Jean Reye with 3%
  4. ↑ Brian Wright with 6%; George Nicholson with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  7. ↑ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%
  8. 1 2 Quintana (G) with 2%
  9. ↑ Quintana (G) with 1%
  10. ↑ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%; "I did not vote on US Senate" with 1%
  11. ↑ "Someone else" with 8%
  12. ↑ "Other" with 5%; "Neither" with 1%
  13. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 2%
  14. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 1%
  15. ↑ "Someone Else" with 2%
  16. ↑ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  17. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  18. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ↑ "Other" with 3%
  20. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  21. 1 2 "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%
  22. ↑ "Other" with 1%
  23. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  24. 1 2 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  25. ↑ Quintana (G) with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
  26. ↑ "Other" with 4%
  27. ↑ "Other" and Quintana (G) with 1%
  28. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  29. ↑ "Someone Else" with 4%
  30. ↑ "Other" with 6%; "Neither" with 2%
  31. ↑ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  32. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  33. ↑ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  34. ↑ Norton (G) with 3%
  35. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. ↑ Quintana (G) with 9%
  37. ↑ "Someone else" with 13%
  38. ↑ Wouldn't vote with 2%
  39. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  40. ↑ "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Bull Moose Project.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  4. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  8. 1 2 Poll commissioned by AARP
  9. ↑ Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
  10. ↑ Poll sponsored by Democracy Defense Project
  11. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  12. ↑ Poll sponsored by USA Today
  13. ↑ Poll sponsored by Club for Growth, which has endorsed Lake.
  14. ↑ Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Lake's campaign.
  15. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  16. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Clean & Prosperous America PAC.
  17. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  18. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Lake's campaign.
  19. ↑ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  20. ↑ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  21. ↑ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  22. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
  23. 1 2 Poll sponsored by NRSC.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  25. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
  26. ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
  27. ↑ Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.

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  16. ↑ Alexi McCammond; Eugene Scott (January 23, 2023). "Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race". Axios. Despite speculation, Phoenix Mayor (and Gallego's ex-wife) Kate Gallego told Axios she does not intend to run for the Arizona Senate seat or for Ruben's House seat.
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  44. ↑ "Our Recommended Candidates" . Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  45. ↑ "Arizona - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  46. ↑ "Brady PAC Endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". Brady PAC. March 19, 2024. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  47. ↑ "We do not endorse mediocre Democrats". Climate Hawks Vote. Retrieved June 21, 2023.
  48. ↑ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
  49. ↑ Gans, Jared (May 16, 2023). "Liberal group endorsing Gallego after backing Sinema". The Hill . Retrieved May 16, 2023.
  50. ↑ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  51. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign PAC Endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". April 2024.
  52. ↑ "Indivisible Endorses Ruben Gallego in the Arizona Senate Race". Indivisible. February 14, 2024. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  53. ↑ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
  54. ↑ Benavides, Sindy M. (March 14, 2024). "Latino Victory Fund Endorses Ruben Gallego in historic election to the U.S. Senate". Latino Victory. Retrieved March 14, 2024.
  55. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Ruben Gallego for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  56. ↑ "People For Endorses Seven New and Incumbent Senate Candidates in "Defend the Senate" Campaign". People for the American Way (Press release). July 29, 2024. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
  57. ↑ "ENDORSEMENT ALERT: Planned Parenthood Action Fund Backs Candidates in Key Senate Races". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  58. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  59. ↑ "AZ-Sen: "I'm one of the first members of Congress to endorse Ruben Gallego (D). Here's why."". Daily Kos . April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  60. ↑ Santaliz, Kate (October 4, 2023). "Rep. Ruben Gallego snags support from abortion-rights group that once backed Kyrsten Sinema". NBC News . Archived from the original on October 4, 2023. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
  61. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org.
  62. ↑ "Stonewall Dems of AZ". Stonewall Democrats of Arizona. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  63. ↑ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left .
  64. ↑ "UnidosUS Action Fund announces endorsement of Biden, Harris, and Democratic candidates Ruben Gallego, Raquel Terán and Kirsten Engel". UnidosUS Action Fund. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  65. ↑ "VoteVets PAC Endorses Gallego for Arizona Senate". VoteVets . March 27, 2023. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
  66. 1 2 Fischer, Morgan (February 5, 2024). "'Go everywhere and talk to everyone': How Ruben Gallego is reaching out to tribal voters". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  67. 1 2 3 4 Emerson College
  68. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
  69. ↑ OH Predictive Insights
  70. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
  71. 1 2 3 "2024 Primary Election Official Canvass" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State.
  72. ↑ Cathey, Libby (October 10, 2023). "Kari Lake launches Arizona Senate campaign after narrow gubernatorial loss". ABC News . Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  73. ↑ MacDonald-Evoy, Jerod (April 11, 2023). "Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb enters U.S. Senate race to challenge Kyrsten Sinema". Arizona Mirror. States Newsroom . Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  74. 1 2 "Candidate Nominations and Petitions filed". Arizona Secretary of State. March 30, 2024.
  75. ↑ Hansen, Ronald (March 26, 2023). "Which Republicans will run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat? What we know" . The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on March 26, 2023. Ciscomani told The Republic recently that he was still learning his way around the U.S. Capitol as a freshman in the House and denied an interest in running for the Senate next year.
  76. ↑ Al Weaver (December 18, 2022). "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". The Hill. Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
  77. ↑ Manu Raju; Alayna Treene (April 10, 2023). "Senate Republicans confront 2024 primary challenges and Trump's influence". CNN Politics. Abe Hamadeh, formerly the Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general, is also weighing a run.
  78. ↑ "Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko says she won't seek reelection, Abe Hamadeh to run for her seat". KTVK. October 17, 2023. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
  79. ↑ Collins, Eliza (August 30, 2023). "Blake Masters Plans to Enter Race for Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat". The Wall Street Journal . Retrieved August 30, 2023.
  80. ↑ Gersony, Laura (October 26, 2023). "Arizona Republican Blake Masters announces run for Debbie Lesko's 8th District seat". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  81. ↑ "Republican Karrin Taylor Robson says she won't run for Sinema's Senate seat in Arizona". The Hill . May 25, 2023.
  82. 1 2 Valencia, Peter. "Kari Lake wins GOP primary in Senate race, other state races too close to call". KTVK .
  83. ↑ Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023). "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2023. One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told Politico she was not looking at another Senate bid
  84. ↑ Swan, Jonathan; Haberman, Maggie; Ulloa, Jazmine (October 10, 2023). "Trump Endorses Kari Lake's Senate Run in Arizona". The New York Times. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  85. ↑ Mutnick, Ally (October 16, 2023). "Kari Lake locks down a key GOP establishment endorsement". Politico. Archived from the original on October 16, 2023. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  86. 1 2 3 4 5 Thomas, Steff (March 1, 2024). "Lake nabs endorsements from Ernst, Risch, Cornyn in Arizona Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  87. ↑ Mondeaux, Cami (March 19, 2024). "More than half of GOP senators back Kari Lake as she nabs another endorsement". Washington Examiner . Retrieved March 19, 2024.
  88. ↑ Gillespie, Brandon (December 11, 2023). "Key McConnell ally makes endorsement in crucial swing state race that could flip Senate red". Fox News . Retrieved December 11, 2023.
  89. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Hansen, Ronald. "Here's who has endorsed Kari Lake in Arizona's US Senate race". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  90. ↑ Daines, Steve (February 13, 2024). "NRSC Chair Daines Endorses Kari Lake". NRSC. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
  91. ↑ Tonco, Brigham (March 7, 2024). "Sen. Mike Lee endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate in Arizona". Deseret News . Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  92. 1 2 Vakil, Caroline (February 12, 2024). "Rand Paul, Gaetz endorse Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race" . Retrieved February 16, 2024.
  93. ↑ Downs, Rebecca (March 1, 2024). "Townhall Has Learned That Senator Risch Has Endorsed Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona". townhall.com. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  94. ↑ Mondeaux, Cami (March 12, 2024). "Kari Lake pulls in more support with Eric Schmitt as latest endorsement - Washington Examiner" . Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  95. ↑ Mondeaux, Cami (July 3, 2024). "Tim Scott endorses Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race - Washington Examiner".
  96. ↑ Joseph, Jamie (January 22, 2024). "Sens. Tuberville and Marshall endorse Trump-backed Arizona Republican Kari Lake for Senate". Fox News .
  97. ↑ Vakil, Caroline (February 27, 2024). "Vance endorses Lake in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  98. ↑ Gillespie, Brandon (November 2, 2023). "Kari Lake builds momentum with more big-name backing in race to flip Arizona Senate seat". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  99. ↑ Mondeaux, Cami (January 19, 2024). "Kari Lake nabs another endorsement from House conservative in pivotal Senate race". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  100. ↑ Bates, Suzanne (October 24, 2023). "Rep. Burgess Owens endorses Arizona's Kari Lake for Senate". Deseret News . Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  101. ↑ Hansen, Ronald (November 15, 2023). "Kari Lake picks up support of No. 3 House Republican in sign the GOP is getting behind her". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved November 16, 2023. Stefanik, R-N.Y., who is the House Republican conference chair, said the Lake endorsement by her political action committee is the first for the Senate this election cycle.
  102. ↑ Husebø, Wendell (February 29, 2024). "Wesley Hunt Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate". Breitbart . Retrieved March 7, 2024. Kari Lake is an outsider and fighter who will work to secure the border and put Arizonans First," he added. "I am excited to endorse Kari for the Senate in Arizona to bring much needed change to Washington.
  103. ↑ Crisp, Elizabeth (May 24, 2024). "Trump VP prospect Doug Burgum endorses Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved May 24, 2024.
  104. ↑ Gersony, Laura (November 1, 2023). "Kari Lake touts endorsement from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces fraud trial". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved November 1, 2023.
  105. 1 2 Hansen, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "'This mama bear has a whole lot of fight in her': Kari Lake enters Arizona's Senate race". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  106. 1 2 "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Kari Lake for U.S. Senate from Arizona". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. January 23, 2024. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  107. ↑ "College Republicans of America is proud to announce our official endorsement of Kari Lake for U.S. Senate in Arizona!".
  108. ↑ "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate". Republicans for National Renewal. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  109. ↑ "It is an honor to officially endorse @KariLake for US Senate for Arizona. She is a proven fighter and champion of the American Way. The RNHA is dedicated to supporting candidates that will solve the border crisis, secure our elections, and take back America!". X.com. Republican National Hispanic Assembly. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  110. ↑ Mutnick, Ally (February 13, 2024). "Senate GOP campaign arm endorses Kari Lake". Politico.
  111. ↑ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  112. ↑ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  113. ↑ Stone, Kevin. "Blake Masters says he shifted 2024 focus from Senate to House after talking to Trump, Lake". KTAR . President Trump wanted Kari to run, and I think she's running a hell of a campaign so far, so I look forward to supporting her.
  114. ↑ Gutierrez, Marco. "Primary Campaign Corner 2024: Candidates". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  115. 1 2 3 4 "2024 Election United States Senate - Arizona". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  116. ↑ Noble Predictive Insights
  117. 1 2 Noble Predictive Insights
  118. ↑ Rasmussen Reports (R)
  119. 1 2 3 Noble Predictive Insights
  120. 1 2 Noble Predictive Insights
  121. ↑ J.L. Partners
  122. ↑ "Candidates". Arizona Green Party. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  123. 1 2 3 "Green Party candidates for Senate in Arizona draw suspicion of being plants". gp.org.
  124. ↑ "Arizona race for US Senate seat features highly watched battles". Daily Independent. April 17, 2024.
  125. ↑ Dovere, Edward-Isaac; Raju, Manu (February 17, 2023). "Key senators torn over retirement decisions as party leaders try to fortify 2024 standing". CNN Politics. CNN . Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  126. ↑ "'Sinema 2024': Meghan McCain blasts Kari Lake". NBC News. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
  127. ↑ Rod, Marc (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider.
  128. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  129. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved October 15, 2024.
  130. ↑ "2024 Arizona Senate - Lake vs. Gallego". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  131. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. April 17, 2023. Retrieved April 17, 2023.
  132. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  133. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. May 25, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  134. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 11, 2024. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  135. 1 2 "Remarks by Vice President Harris and Governor Tim Walz at a Campaign Event". The White House. Glendale, Arizona. August 10, 2024. Retrieved October 9, 2024.
  136. ↑ "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  137. ↑ Ford, William J.; Kurtz, Josh (September 5, 2024). "Muñoz quits House, Huntley steps up to council, Boafo launches federal PAC, more moves". Maryland Matters. Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  138. ↑ Giles, Ben (August 6, 2024). "Harris and Gallego boast endorsements from across the aisle". KJZZ. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  139. 1 2 Hansen, Ronald J. (August 5, 2024). "US Rep. Ruben Gallego rolls out endorsements by 40 Republicans, independents". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  140. ↑ Giles, Ben (August 26, 2024). "Arizona Police Association endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". KJZZ .
  141. ↑ Democratic Majority for Israel [@DemMaj4Israel] (September 9, 2024). "Today, DMFI PAC announced its endorsement of fourteen pro-Israel candidates running for the Democratic nomination in key U.S. House and Senate general election races. These seats are critical to electing a Democratic majority in Congress this November" (Tweet). Retrieved September 9, 2024– via Twitter.
  142. ↑ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces First Major Round of Federal Endorsements". Everytown. August 19, 2024. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  143. ↑ Hansen, Ronald J. (October 22, 2024). "National Latino group gives rare endorsement to Senate contender Ruben Gallego in Arizona". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  144. ↑ "March For Our Lives Announces First Endorsements in Races Nationwide, Starting in Arizona". March For Our Lives. September 9, 2024. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
  145. ↑ Roberts, Laurie (August 13, 2024). "Doug Ducey ditches his dignity to endorse Donald Trump and Kari Lake" . The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on August 15, 2024. Retrieved October 12, 2024.
  146. ↑ Liebelson, Dana (October 13, 2024). "Normie Republicans Are Having Their Revenge on Kari Lake". Politico . Retrieved October 13, 2024.
  147. ↑ "PAC Endorsed Candidates". Club for Growth. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
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  149. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  150. ↑ RealClearPolitics
  151. ↑ 270toWin
  152. ↑ TheHill/DDHQ
  153. ↑ AtlasIntel
  154. ↑ Victory Insights (R)
  155. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  156. ↑ Patriot Polling (R)
  157. ↑ InsiderAdvantage (R)
  158. ↑ AtlasIntel
  159. ↑ Emerson College
  160. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  161. 1 2 Morning Consult
  162. ↑ AtlasIntel
  163. ↑ OnMessage (R)
  164. ↑ YouGov
  165. ↑ ActiVote
  166. ↑ Noble Predictive Insights
  167. ↑ Data for Progress (D)
  168. ↑ AtlasIntel
  169. ↑ Mitchell Research & Communications
  170. ↑ Data Orbital (R)
  171. ↑ RABA Research
  172. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  173. ↑ CNN/SRSS
  174. ↑ Marist College
  175. ↑ HighGround Public Affairs
  176. ↑ InsiderAdvantage (R)
  177. ↑ University of Arizona
  178. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  179. ↑ AtlasIntel
  180. ↑ CBS News/YouGov
  181. ↑ Morning Consult
  182. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  183. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  184. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  185. ↑ ActiVote
  186. ↑ Emerson College
  187. ↑ SoCal Strategies (R)
  188. ↑ RMG Research
  189. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  190. ↑ Fabrizio Ward (R)/
    Impact Research (D)
  191. ↑ InsiderAdvantage (R)
  192. ↑ HighGround Public Affairs
  193. ↑ National Research Inc.
  194. ↑ Emerson College
  195. ↑ AtlasIntel
  196. ↑ BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
  197. ↑ Fox News
  198. ↑ Suffolk University
  199. ↑ Marist College
  200. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  201. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  202. ↑ Emerson College
  203. ↑ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  204. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  205. ↑ Morning Consult
  206. ↑ YouGov
  207. ↑ InsiderAdvantage (R)
  208. ↑ University of Arizona
  209. ↑ CNN/SRSS
  210. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  211. ↑ Emerson College
  212. ↑ Fox News
  213. ↑ Noble Predictive Insights
  214. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  215. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  216. ↑ WPA Intelligence (R)
  217. ↑ Peak Insights (R)
  218. ↑ HighGround Public Affairs
  219. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  220. ↑ BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
  221. ↑ Emerson College
  222. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  223. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  224. ↑ J.L. Partners (R)
  225. ↑ YouGov
  226. ↑ Expedition Strategies
  227. ↑ Remington Research Group (R)
  228. ↑ North Star Opinion Research (R)
  229. ↑ Emerson College
  230. ↑ Rasmussen Reports (R)
  231. ↑ Fabrizio Ward (R)/
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  232. ↑ Mainstreet Research/FAU
  233. ↑ CBS News/YouGov
  234. ↑ BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
  235. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  236. ↑ Data Orbital (R)
  237. ↑ Emerson College
  238. ↑ RABA Research
  239. ↑ Emerson College
  240. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports (R)
  241. 1 2 Emerson College
  242. 1 2 J.L. Partners (R)
  243. 1 2 Public Policy Polling (D)
  244. 1 2 Cygnal (R)
  245. 1 2 McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  246. 1 2 National Research Inc. (R)
  247. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling (D)
  248. 1 2 3 4 Noble Predictive Insights
  249. 1 2 OH Predictive Insights
  250. 1 2 3 Normington Petts (D)
  251. 1 2 Public Policy Polling (D)
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  253. ↑ Tulchin Research (D)
  254. ↑ Noble Predictive Insights
  255. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling (D)
  256. ↑ Blueprint Polling (D)
  257. ↑ Bullfinch Group
  258. 1 2 3 Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/
    OH Predictive Insights
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  260. ↑ Vakil, Caroline (November 9, 2024). "Gallego defeats Lake in Arizona Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved November 10, 2024.
  261. ↑ https://x.com/DrewSav/status/1861515922185338998
  262. ↑ "Our Campaigns - AZ US Senate Race - Nov 05, 2024". www.ourcampaigns.com. Retrieved November 20, 2024.

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