2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

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2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008 November 2, 2010 (2010-11-02) 2012  →
All 8 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives
Turnout55.65%
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election35
Seats won53
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 2Decrease2.svg 2
Popular vote900,510711,837
Percentage53.03%41.92%
SwingIncrease2.svg 9.00%Decrease2.svg 3.55%
2010 Arizona United States House of Representatives election by Congressional District.svg

The 2010 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 2, 2010, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives. Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Representatives were elected for two-year terms; those elected were to serve in the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011 until January 3, 2013.

Contents

The state's 2009-2010 delegation consisted of five Democrats and three Republicans. With the exception of Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had won the open seat in District 1 during the previous election, all members of the delegation were incumbents who had served for at least a full term in Congress. Also, with the exception of retiring Republican John Shadegg of District 3, all incumbent members of the state's delegation ran for re-election.

As of August 17, 2010, Districts 1, 5 and 8, all held by Democrats, were considered to be competitive by both CQ Politics and The Cook Political Report. [1] [2] The primary elections for Congressional races were held on August 24, 2010. [3] [4]

Overview

The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arizona. In addition, the voter turnout and the number of votes not valid will be listed below. [5]

Statewide

PartyCandidatesVotesSeats
No. %No.+/– %
Republican 8900,51053.035Increase2.svg 262.50
Democratic 8711,83741.923Decrease2.svg 237.50
Libertarian 872,2164.250Steady2.svg0.0
Green 39,0660.530Steady2.svg0.0
Independent 14,5060.270Steady2.svg0.0
Total281,698,135100.08Steady2.svg100.0
Popular vote
Republican
 
53.03%
Democratic
 
41.92%
Libertarian
 
4.25%
Green
 
0.53%
Other
 
0.27%
House seats
Republican
 
62.50%
Democratic
 
37.50%

By district

Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district: [6]

District Republican Democratic OthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1 112,81649.72%99,23343.73%14,8696.55%226,918100.0%Republican gain
District 2 173,17364.88%82,89131.06%10,8304.06%266,894100.0%Republican hold
District 3 108,68952.24%85,61041.14%13,7726.62%208,071100.0%Republican hold
District 4 25,30027.53%61,52466.94%5,0835.53%91,907100.0%Democratic hold
District 5 110,37452.00%91,74943.23%10,1274.77%212,250100.0%Republican gain
District 6 165,64966.42%72,61529.12%11,1194.46%249,383100.0%Republican hold
District 7 70,38544.23%79,93550.23%8,8245.54%159,144100.0%Democratic hold
District 8 134,12447.30%138,28048.76%11,1743.94%283,578100.0%Democratic hold
Total900,51053.03%711,83741.92%85,7985.05%1,698,145100.0%

District 1

2010 Arizona's 1st congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008
2012  →
  Paul Gosar, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg Ann Kirkpatrick, official portrait, 111th Congress.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Paul Gosar Ann Kirkpatrick Nicole Patti
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote122,77499,23314,869
Percentage49.7%43.7%6.6%
2010 AZ-1 Election Results.svg
County results
Kirkpatrick:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Gosar:     40–50%     50-60%
U.S. Representative before election

Ann Kirkpatrick
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Paul Gosar
Republican

Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. She was elected with 55.9% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+6.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick (incumbent) 46,902 100.0
Total votes46,902 100.0

Republican primary

The Republican primary featured 8 candidates seeking to take on Kirkpatrick in the general election. Mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay, who had been the Republican nominee to run against Kirkpatrick in 2008, finished second in the primary behind dentist Paul Gosar. Other unsuccessful Republican candidates included attorney Bradley Beauchamp and former state legislator Russell Bowers.

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Bradley Beauchamp, attorney
  • Russell Bowers, former state senator
  • Sydney Hay, mining industry lobbyist, nominee for this seat in 2008 and candidate in 2002
  • Joe Jaraczewski, former real estate development company owner [8]
  • Jon Jensen, former Greeley County School Superintendent [9]
  • Steve Mehta, cardiologist
  • Thomas J. Zaleski, President at Thoma Capital Management LLC
Withdrawn

Endorsements

Paul Gosar
Statewide officials
Local officials
Steve Mehta
Newspapers

Results

Gosar, a political neophyte, buoyed by endorsements from highly visible Republican politicians, including Sarah Palin, won the primary with just under 31% of the vote. [11]

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Paul Gosar 21,941 30.7
Republican Sydney Hay16,32822.9
Republican Bradley Beauchamp11,35615.9
Republican Russell Bowers10,55214.8
Republican Steve Mehta5,8468.2
Republican Thomas J. Zaleski2,1053.0
Republican Jon Jensen1,7362.4
Republican Joe Jaraczewski1,5302.1
Total votes71,394 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Nicole Patti (PVS)

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Nicole Patti (write-in)23 100.0
Total votes23 100.0

General election

Prior to Kirkpatrick's election in 2008, the 1st district had been held by Republicans since this version of the seat was created following the 2000 census.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)		Paul
Gosar (R)		Nicole
Patti (L)		Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D) October 12–14, 2010500 (LV)±4.4%41%38%6%15%
The Hill/ANGA September 25–30, 2010403 (LV)±4.9%39%46%3%12%
Moore Information (R) August 30–31, 2010412 (LV)±4.8%43%43%–14%
American Action Forum August 25–29, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%41%47%–12%
Lake Research Partners (D) August 24–26, 2010500 (LV)±4.4%43%39%–17%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [12] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
Rothenberg [13] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
RCP [15] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
CQ Politics [16] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
New York Times [17] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [17] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010

Results

Kirkpatrick lost on November 2, 2010 to Paul Gosar and the seat reverted to the Republicans.

Arizona's 1st congressional district, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Paul Gosar 112,816 49.7
Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick (incumbent)99,23343.7
Libertarian Nicole Patti14,8696.6
Majority13,5836.0
Total votes226,918 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District 2

2010 Arizona's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008
2012  →
  Trent Franks, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Trent Franks John Thrasher
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote173,17382,891
Percentage64.9%31.0%
U.S. Representative before election

Trent Franks
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Trent Franks
Republican

Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+13.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Results

Franks won an easy victory with over 80% of the vote in his favour. [18]

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Trent Franks (incumbent) 81,252 80.9
Republican Charles Black19,22019.1
Total votes100,472 100.0

Democratic primary

Retired teacher John Thrasher ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Thrasher has twice attempted to unseat Franks, losing to the incumbent by 19% in 2006 and by 22% in 2008.(campaign site, PVS)

Candidates

Nominee
  • John Thrasher, retired teacher and nominee for this seat in 2006 and 2008

Results

Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Thrasher 32,503 100.0
Total votes32,503 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Powell Gammill 318 100.0
Total votes318 100.0

General election

Results

Arizona's 2nd congressional district election, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Trent Franks (incumbent) 173,173 64.9
Democratic John Thrasher82,89131.0
Libertarian Powell Gammill10,8204.1
Majority90,28233.9
Total votes266,884 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

2010 Arizona's 3rd congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008
2012  →
  Benjamin Quayle, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg 3x4.svg
Nominee Ben Quayle Jon Hulburd Michael Shoen
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote108,68985,61010,478
Percentage52.2%41.1%5.0%
U.S. Representative before election

John Shadegg
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ben Quayle
Republican

Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, retired. He was re-elected with 54.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+9.

Republican primary

On January 14, 2010 8-term incumbent Shadegg announced his retirement at the end of his current term, making the third district an open seat. [19] In the wake of Shadegg's retirement, several Republicans declared their candidacy. [20]

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Campaign

Gorman gained national attention during the campaign for an ad showing her firing a Thompson submachine gun, [28] and for her cosponsorship of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill. [29]

Quayle, the initial frontrunner in the race, faced criticism for his prior involvement with the controversial rumour and gossip website "DirtyScottsdale.com". According to the site's founder, Quayle was one of the "original contributors" to the site, which covered Scottsdale nightlife with features including sexy photos of women, and was the predecessor to the gossip website TheDirty.com. [30] Quayle initially denied the rumors, [31] before admitting several weeks later that he did, in fact, write material for the site under the pen name Brock Landers. [30] [32] [33] [34] Newcomer Steve Moak's strong fundraising [35] and television advertising blitz against Quayle saw him to be viewed as the new frontrunner, however he faced allegations that he illegally profited from a charity he had set up, hurt his campaign. [36] [37]

Results

Quayle emerged victorious with 22.1% of the vote, while businessman and political neophyte Steve Moak came in second with 18%. [18]

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ben Quayle 17,400 22.1
Republican Steve Moak14,21118.0
Republican Jim Waring13,85017.6
Republican Vernon Parker13,41117.0
Republican Pamela Gorman6,4738.2
Republican Paulina Morris6,1387.8
Republican Sam Crump3,8864.9
Republican Ed Winkler1,3531.7
Republican Bob Branch1,1411.4
Republican LeAnn Hull1,0441.3
Total votes78,907 100.0

Democratic primary

Jon Hulburd filed his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on October 16, 2009. [38] The Hulburd campaign got off to a strong start and raised over $300,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009. [39] This attracted national attention with the DCCC naming the race as one of its top 17 races to watch nationwide. [40]

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jon Hulburd 27,388 100.0
Total votes27,388 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Michael Shoen 392 99.7
Libertarian Clay Adair (write-in)10.3
Total votes393 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Green primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Leonard Clark (write-in)5 100.0
Total votes5 100.0

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ben
Quayle (R)		Jon
Hulburd (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 16–17, 2010655 (LV)±3.8%44%46%10%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [12] Lean RNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg [13] Safe RNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Lean RNovember 1, 2010
RCP [15] Lean RNovember 1, 2010
CQ Politics [16] Safe ROctober 28, 2010
New York Times [17] Lean RNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [17] Lean RNovember 1, 2010

Results

Arizona's 3rd congressional district election, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ben Quayle 108,689 52.2
Democratic Jon Hulburd 85,61041.1
Libertarian Michael Shoen10,4785.0
Green Leonard Clark3,2941.6
Majority23,07911.1
Total votes208,071 100.0
Republican hold

District 4

2012 Arizona's 4th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008
2012  →
  Ed Pastor, official portrait, 110th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Ed Pastor Janet Contreras
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote61,52425,300
Percentage66.8%27.5%
U.S. Representative before election

Ed Pastor
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Ed Pastor
Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 72.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+13. Since taking office, he has been re-elected nine times with no less than 62% of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ed Pastor (incumbent) 24,613 100.0
Total votes24,613 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Joe Peñalosa, immigration attorney [18]

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Janet Contreras 8,085 60.1
Republican Joe Peñalosa5,36839.9
Total votes13,453 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Joe Cobb 219 100.0
Total votes219 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Green primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Rebecca DeWitt 148 100.0
Total votes148 100.0

General election

Results

Arizona's 4th congressional district election, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ed Pastor (incumbent) 61,524 66.8
Republican Janet Contreras25,30027.5
Libertarian Joe Cobb2,7183.0
Green Rebecca DeWitt2,3652.6
Majority36,22439.3
Total votes91,907 100.0
Democratic hold

District 5

2010 Arizona's 5th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008
2012  →
  David Schweikert, official portrait, 112th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg Harry Mitchell, official portrait, 110th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee David Schweikert Harry Mitchell
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote110,37491,749
Percentage52.0%43.2%
U.S. Representative before election

Harry Mitchell
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

David Schweikert
Republican

AZ-districts-109-05.png

Incumbent Democrat Harry Mitchell, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 53.2% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+5.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Harry Mitchell (incumbent) 29,716 100.0
Total votes29,716 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Susan Bitter Smith, former Scottsdale city council member, candidate for the 1st District in 1994 and 2000 and for this seat in 2008.
  • Lee Gentry, business owner, attorney, certified public accountant and candidate for this seat in 2008
  • Chris Salvino, surgeon
  • Mark Spinks, realtor [44]
  • Jim Ward, venture capitalist
Withdrawn
  • Eric Wnuck, businessman [45]

Results

Schweikert's victory sets up a rematch against Mitchell, who defeated him 53-44% in the 2008 general election. [46]

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David Schweikert 26,678 37.2
Republican Jim Ward18,48025.8
Republican Susan Bitter Smith17,29724.1
Republican Chris Salvino7,15610.0
Republican Lee Gentry1,1571.6
Republican Mark Spinks8841.2
Total votes71,652 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Nick Coons 306 100.0
Total votes306 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Ryan Blackman

Results

Green primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Ryan Blackman (write-in)4 100.0
Total votes4 100.0

Blackman withdrew from the general election. [47]

General election

Campaign

Prior to Mitchell's victory over incumbent conservative Republican J. D. Hayworth in 2006, the district had been held by Republicans since 1995, although it had been tending towards the Democrats. Schweikert posted signs across the district calling Mitchell a “lap dog” for Nancy Pelosi, after Mitchell voted for the 2008 bank bailout, the $787 billion stimulus law in 2009 and the Affordable Care Act in March 2010. This despite Mitchell's breaks with the Party on a number of Tax and climate change legislation. [48]

Endorsements

David Schweikert (R)
Statewide officials

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Harry
Mitchell (D)		David
Schweikert (R)		Nick
Coons (L)		Undecided
Penn Schoen Berland (D/The Hill/ANGA) October 12–14, 2010408 (LV)±4.9%42%45%1%12%
Benenson Strategy Group (D) October 5–7, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%46%39%—15%
National Research (R) October 5–6, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%43%45%—12%
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D) September 26–27, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%43%40%6%11%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) September 13–16, 2010509 (LV)±4.3%45%44%6%5%
National Research (R) August 31-September 2, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%38%46%—16%
American Action Forum August 25–29, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%44%50%—6%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [12] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg [13] Tilt R (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
RCP [15] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
CQ Politics [16] TossupOctober 28, 2010
New York Times [17] TossupNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [17] Tilt R (flip)November 1, 2010

Results

David Schweikert defeated Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell on November 2, 2010, returning the seat to the Republicans.

Arizona's 5th congressional district election, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David Schweikert 110,374 52.0
Democratic Harry Mitchell (incumbent)91,74943.2
Libertarian Nick Coons10,1274.8
Majority18,6258.8
Total votes212,250 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District 6

2010 Arizona's 6th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008
2012  →
  Jeff Flake, official portrait, 111th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Jeff Flake Rebecca Schneider
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote165,64972,615
Percentage66.3%29.1%
U.S. Representative before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Jeff Flake
Republican

Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+15.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Jeff Smith, investor

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Flake (incumbent) 62,285 64.6
Republican Jeff Smith34,13735.4
Total votes96,422 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn
  • Amos Chiarappa [10]

Results

Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Rebecca Schneider 26,220 100.0
Total votes26,220 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Darell Tapp (PVS)

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Darell Tapp (write-in)28 100.0
Total votes28 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Green primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Richard Grayson (write-in)6 100.0
Total votes6 100.0

General election

Results

Arizona's 6th congressional district election, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Flake (incumbent) 165,649 66.3
Democratic Rebecca Schneider72,61529.1
Libertarian Darell Tapp7,7123.1
Green Richard Grayson 3,4071.4
Majority93,03437.2
Total votes249,383 100.0
Republican hold

District 7

2010 Arizona's 7th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008
2012  →
  Raul Grijalva, official portrait, 108th Congress (cropped).jpg Ruth McClung (2010) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Raúl Grijalva Ruth McClung
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote79,93570,385
Percentage50.2%44.2%
U.S. Representative before election

Raúl Grijalva
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Raúl Grijalva
Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 63.3% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+6.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 33,931 100.0
Total votes33,931 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Christopher J. Flowers
  • Terry Myers
  • Joseph Sweeney, educator, nominee for this seat in 2004 & 2008 and candidate in 2000, 2002 & 2006
  • Robert Wilson

Results

Republican primary results [18]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ruth McClung 15,455 51.0
Republican Terry Myers7,04423.2
Republican Joseph Sweeney3,70212.2
Republican Robert Wilson2,7379.0
Republican Christopher J. Flowers1,3944.6
Total votes30,332 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian George Keane 159 56.8
Libertarian Andrew Ibarra12143.2
Total votes280 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Campaign

Despite the Democratic lean of the district Grijalva faced a tougher than expected re-election campaign following his suggestion that businesses should boycott the state in response to the passing of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill. Both Grijalva and challenger, 28-year-old physicist Ruth McClung, benefitted from outside spending in the final weeks of the campaign, in addition to the national environment favouring the Republicans. [49] [50]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Raúl
Grijalva (D)		Ruth
McClung (R)		George
Keane (L)		Harley
Meyer (I)		Undecided
Summit Consulting Group October 4–5, 20101,807 (LV)±3.0%37%39%——24%
Magellan Strategies (R) September 29, 2010686 (LV)±3.7%40%38%4%5%13%
American Political Consultants (R) September 25–26, 2010450 (LV)±4.3%42%35%——23%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [12] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg [13] Lean DNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Lean DNovember 1, 2010
RCP [15] TossupNovember 1, 2010
CQ Politics [16] Lean DOctober 28, 2010
New York Times [17] TossupNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [17] Tilts DNovember 1, 2010

Results

Two days after the election Grijalva was declared the winner, with his margin of victory being ultimately just 6 points. [51]

Arizona's 7th congressional district election, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) 79,935 50.2
Republican Ruth McClung70,38544.2
Independent Harley Meyer [42] 4,5062.8
Libertarian George Keane4,3182.7
Majority9,5506.0
Total votes159,144 100.0
Democratic hold

District 8

2010 Arizona's 8th congressional district election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2008
2012 (special)  →
  Gabrielle Giffords, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Gabby Giffords Jesse Kelly
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote138,280134,124
Percentage48.8%47.3%
U.S. Representative before election

Gabby Giffords
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Gabby Giffords
Democratic

Incumbent Democrat Gabby Giffords, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 54.7% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+4.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gabby Giffords (incumbent) 55,530 100.0
Total votes55,530 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Jesse Kelly, Marine veteran and businessman (no relation to Giffords' husband Mark Kelly)
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn

Debates

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jesse Kelly 43,097 48.3
Republican Jonathan Paton37,06641.5
Republican Brian Miller (withdrawn)6,6137.4
Republican Jay Quick1,9332.2
Republican Andy Goss (withdrawn)5020.6
Total votes89,211 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Steven Stoltz, engineer

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Steven Stoltz 482 100.0
Total votes482 100.0

General election

Prior to Giffords win in 2006, the seat had been held by Republicans since 1985 under moderate Jim Kolbe.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Gabrielle
Giffords (D)		Jesse
Kelly (R)		Undecided
American Action Forum August 25–29, 2010400 (LV)±4.9%46%46%8%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [12] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg [13] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Lean DNovember 1, 2010
RCP [15] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2010
CQ Politics [16] TossupOctober 28, 2010
New York Times [17] TossupNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight [17] TossupNovember 1, 2010

Results

Arizona's 8th congressional district, 2010
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gabby Giffords (incumbent) 138,280 48.8
Republican Jesse Kelly134,12447.3
Libertarian Steven Stoltz11,1743.9
Majority4,1561.5
Total votes283,578 100.0
Democratic hold

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